[Anime] Umineko - Speculation & Theories (for first time viewers)

[nagare]

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Actually no. This kind of stories are generally following the etiquette and rules of detective novel, which actually forbid the detective nor the narrator to be the culprit (which is Battler in this case). See the Knox’s Ten Commandments.

Also Van Dine's 20 rules
http://paradise-mysteries.blogspot.c...r-writing.html

As said above both Dine's 20 rules and especially Knox's 10 rules are the what shapes the Whodunit detective genre (at its roots), letting the readers have a fair chance at solving the mystery.

Both of these people are mention by Ryukishi in regards to Umineko.
He does say "No Dine, No Knox."
I would say it'll be reasonable to except that some of these rules might be broken.

Originally Posted by chounokoe

And as already mentioned by Ithekro we also have the whole unreliable narrator (at the latest introduced in the American Modernism, with Fitzgerald and others).

Also Edgar Allan Poe whose also one of the roots of the mystery genre. In some of his short stories his main perspective were people trying to justify their deed and/or their sanity.

Personally, I believe that you should have fairly strong evidence before you doubt the main perspective. Otherwise, you're going to be overloaded with information as you have to question nearly everything.

Edit: Found a copy of the article Dine wrote
http://gaslight.mtroyal.ab.ca/vandine.htm

[Christen]

It isn't wrong to suspect everyone. Just keep making those theories, and allow the story to flesh it out for you.

No Dine.
No Knox.
No Fair.
In other words it is not mystery.
But it happens.
All it happens.
Let it happens.

Once again,
No Dine.
In other words it is to starve.
Starve while demanding the fair, and die.

Witch in gold, Beatrice.

[chounokoe]

Originally Posted by nagare

Personally, I believe that you should have fairly strong evidence before you doubt the main perspective. Otherwise, you're going to be overloaded with information as you have to question nearly everything.

Or to put it in other words: 'A person is to be regarded innocent until there is provable evidence of his or her crime'...otherwise we would get intangled into a rather confusing (excuse the pun) witch hunt, which would be much too much led by personal oppinion.

Ah well, let's let it rest at that, the words 'No Dine! No Knox!' said it all.
Let's leave the ground for real discussion from the anime viewers again.

Let's see if there's more stuff to discuss after Wednesday/Thursday.

[MikaMikado]

You are not supposed to make statements without providing elements that back up your point clearly. This is a FIRST TIME viewers, so starting with such advantage make the whole thing totally useless. You might not have read beyond past a point, but bringing theories without explanations of some facts (like Natsuhi and Shannon) make the whole thing baseless and not suited for people who do not have any VN knowledge.
That is the reason why VN players are only providing elements for anime watchers without giving them theories. Therefore, if you use theories that require VN or manga knowledge, please at least bring the FACTS that back it up (anime watchers aren't some crystal seer you see) and only if it is the scope of the progression of the plot. Otherwise, I will have to ask you not to post anymore in this thread (because otherwise, it wouldn't be anything different than a VN reader feigning ignorance and offering theories for the hell of it).

You know I backed everything up in my 1000+ word count post. So if you'd read that one, it would be nice. And I haven't played farther than the first twilight, as you would know if you read carefully what I said. I'm not feigning ignorance. Stop accusing me of such stuff. I just want to enjoy the game to its fullest = talk about the theories and how it will turn out. And I, unlike you apparently, search for info about what SHOULD'VE happened. I don't act as if I didn't play any further, I really didn't. So please stop ignoring my arguments with such talk? Alright, we are all trying to enjoy Umineko by speculating. I personally find that the most amusing part.


OH, and Nanjo couldn't do that because he was playing chess.

[Luxa]

First post here as far as I can remember (been lurking for some time), but I simply can't resist this thread.

With Higurashi I went with the completely mundane theories to the bitter end.

Spoiler for Higurashi Kai:

(Well, I wasn't technically wrong in this aspect apart from Hanyuu and that fuzzy part at the end with the old Rika (?) and Miyo...)

I will try a different approach here.

I think that the killings here are supernatural based on the fact that they are really hard to be carried out by a single person and I don't think that there are more than two murderers here. Actually, I really like the demon theory of Hideyoshi, combined with the possibility of some people actively summoning these demons and ordering them to kill. This would also fit the protective powers of the amulets. (Unless they are red herrings.)

Speaking of amulets I would like to point out that Natsuhi doesn't have the amulet on her person, it might be still tied to the door: it might not protect her if the attack comes outside of her room or perhaps even if it's coming from the window.

I also think that Beatrice does exist (based on Kinzo's ramblings and the OP) and the deal with the gold was as it was given. The letter is genuine and was given to Maria by her with the umbrella. I don't think she is directly ordering/doing the killings though, but perhaps she is a lending a bit of a power. I think she is in for the fun and/or perhaps some souls.

Other points I find interesting, but don't know if they would be important or not:

• Shannon is just an assumed name based on TIPS
• Battler's mum was dearly loved by him and is dead, this might be connected with the resurrection in the epitaph.

[Ithekro]

I'd point out that a suppressor (commonly called a silencer) does not make a gun silent. (Hollywood never shows that correctly) It just reduces the noise somewhat. Down to 117 dB I think is as far as a suppressor is rated. That is enough to make it quiet in a loud room, but that is with a smaller caliber of weapon.

In order to produce lethal force to the head requires slightly more firepower than the .22LR. Japanese law allows for the ownership of rifles and shotguns only, therefore we can assume that the culprit did not use a pistol. A shotgun can be ruled out since it would leave more of a mess and is really loud....it is not designed for precise killing, but for point and shoot, will hit them with some of the spread of lead. (While it might lead to that mess of a face at point blank range, it would also leave a lot of burn marks because the barrel would be right in front of the face...it would more likely remove the entire head due to the force used.)

Therefore if the murder weapon is a firearm, it would have to be some form of rifle. One would assume a common type. .30 caliber or a variant of that type of round is the most common used by civilians and hunters. I'm not sure of the Japanese model but the Americans have been making things like that for well over hundred years and the family (assuming the murder is one of the 18 people on the island) could have "easily" purchased an American import, or even Kinzo could have purchased one during the Occupation of Japan since American good were more common then (and he seems to have a Western bent to his home).

But such a weapon cannot be made silent. Best guess is would still put out at least 130 dB when fired with a suppressor.

[unconfirmed]

You know guys...if the killer just lured the victims to the shed, killing them with even a grenade probably wouldn't be heard by the people in the mansion and the guest house. Plus, it saves the killer the trouble of moving the bodies.

[Ithekro]

A grenade would leave a lot more damage than just a messed up face. Gas would work, but the trouble here is we have to think of what would a civilian have to work with legally? One should rule out any military grade equipment that would not be surplus. One should rule out any generally illegal weapons or items until the more legal ones are ruled out. Sure they have money, but even then, you don't have to have high tech or military grade stuff to kill people.

[unconfirmed]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

A grenade would leave a lot more damage than just a messed up face. Gas would work, but the trouble here is we have to think of what would a civilian have to work with legally? One should rule out any military grade equipment that would not be surplus. One should rule out any generally illegal weapons or items until the more legal ones are ruled out. Sure they have money, but even then, you don't have to have high tech or military grade stuff to kill people.

I was making the point that the weapon used can be quite loud without anyone hearing it, whether it was grenade or not is insignificant.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Ok, this discussion is getting ridiculous. For one thing, my physics is not good enough to confirm what you just said but I'll just give these 2 points.
1. I have never heard thunder that sounds like gunshot. Both are very loud but one sounds natural and the other sounds very mechanical.
2. This ain't a battlefield. It's a crime where the killer wants to hide his/her identity. Why the f*ck would the killer not use a gun with silencer? It will just increase the risk of someone noticing the killing process. To send out at least 6 gunshots in one night is not something that people will ignore. Of course, there is a possibility that the killer is a retard but I highly doubt it.

On the first point, I assume it's a matter of perspective.

On the second, my rationale is that it's Japan. Handguns are extremely rare, and silencers would be even more rare. It's much easier to get a hold of a shotgun than a handgun, with a rifle being in between in terms of difficulty to obtain. Handguns are completely banned for civilian ownership, so the person would be committing a felony just to procure one. Granted, assuming the killer was one of the Ushiromiya adults, they could probably use their wealth to procure a handgun and silencer easily, but that would be unlikely that a servant could get a hold of one (unless Krauss/Kinzo owned one that they stole). So presuming a silenced handgun narrows the field of possible suspects.

Second, it doesn't seem like a necessary assumption. A silencer only reduces the sound of a gunshot by about 30-35 decibels, less than a single wall. So you could just presume that they were one room farther away and have the same effect; since we don't know the geometry of the mansion, we can't really say who could/could not have heard the shot. Again, making the fewest number of necessary assumptions keeps the greatest number of possibilities on the table.

I agree with you, though, that the killer would use a silencer if they could -- there's little reason not to if that option was open to them. There is the possibility, though, that the killer could obtain a gun but not a silenced gun, either because of a lack of resources/connections or because the crime was not premeditated far enough in advance to make those plans.

And for the record, I don't think all 6 were shot. In my theory at most two of the six were killed in that manner, and possibly only one.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

On the first point, I assume it's a matter of perspective.

On the second, my rationale is that it's Japan. Handguns are extremely rare, and silencers would be even more rare. It's much easier to get a hold of a shotgun than a handgun, with a rifle being in between in terms of difficulty to obtain. Granted, assuming the killer was one of the Ushiromiya adults, they could probably use their wealth to procure a handgun and silencer, but that would be unlikely that a servant could easily get a hold of one (unless Krauss/Kinzo owned one that they stole). So presuming a silenced handgun may unnecessarily narrow the field of possible suspects.

Second, it doesn't seem like a necessary assumption. A silencer only reduces the sound of a gunshot by about 30-35 decibels, less than a single wall. So you could just presume that they were one room farther away and have the same effect; since we don't know the geometry of the mansion, we can't really say who could/could not have heard the shot. Again, making the fewest number of necessary assumptions keeps the greatest number of possibilities on the table.

And for the record, I don't think all 6 were shot. In my theory at most two of the six were killed in that manner, and possibly only one.

Um, no it's not a matter of perspective. A gunshot has sudden loud sound that immediately fades before the next shot is fired. The pitch of the sound is also very high. Thunder will echo as in the sounds coming after will get smaller and smaller until it fades. The pitch of thunder is also noticeably lower than gunshot. Only kids or cavemen will mistake these distinct sounds.

Second, you seem to underestimate Japan not that it matters. Did you happen to visit Japanese firearm shop at that time that specifies that shotgun, rifle, guns are available but not guns with silencers? If not, then do not make such an assumption.

Third, so supressor does help to reduce the sound but the killer choose to ignore it anyway? Gee, what a retard.

Fourth, so the killer would bother to select which one to kill with gun which one with other means? Wow, the killer better have reasonable explanation for that.

[Ithekro]

If one believes the sound from a firearm would be too loud to be able to commit one or more of these murders in a way that none of the rest of the households would hear, than your next option is that it was not a firearm.

What's next if one rules out a firearm?

[Mei19]

I'm back again. Guns are involved now? I've been left behind in the discussion so I'd just pitch in whatever's on my mind right now. Based on these pictures...They obviously have been hit by something. It looks more like all 6 were lined up and were smashed by a wide round object right on their faces all at the same time. Krauss would be on the far left and Shannon would be the last one on the right. Then the corpses were just thrown on the storage.

Originally Posted by Klashikari

Spoiler for Game TIPS of the first 6:

About the handprints on Natsuhi's door why don't they just preserve the handprints, get out of the island, call authorities to determine whose fingerprints are those, plus the fingerprints on the victims (if there's one). This whole game of cat and mouse will be much easier. Thing is, that's definitely out of the question since they're going to have to solve the case the primitive way. More ridiculous unsolvable mystery = happier audience.

Before I forgot, I think Jessica looks a lot like Beatrice. Dun dun dun.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

Um, no it's not a matter of perspective. A gunshot has sudden loud sound that immediately fades before the next shot is fired. The pitch of the sound is also very high. Thunder will echo as in the sounds coming after will get smaller and smaller until it fades.

Rolling thunder does, there's more than one type. Thunder can also be a single loud crack, relatively high pitched and without any lingering sound. It depends on what kind of lightning caused it -- cloud-to-cloud lightning makes the lower rumbling sound, while cloud-to-ground makes the higher pitched crack.

Second, you seem to underestimate Japan not that it matters. Did you happen to visit Japanese firearm shop at that time that specifies that shotgun, rifle, guns are available but not guns with silencers? If not, then do not make such an assumption.

Handguns are banned for any civilian use, simply owning one is a felony. Rifles and shotguns may be purchased if you have a hunting license. Silencers are also illegal to own.

Third, so supressor does help to reduce the sound but the killer choose to ignore it anyway? Gee, what a retard.

They didn't necessarily choose to ignore it, they may not have been able to procure one.

Fourth, so the killer would bother to select which one to kill with gun which one with other means? Wow, the killer better have reasonable explanation for that.

My own theory is that the four in the meeting were poisoned, with Gohda as an unwitting accomplice in that he delivered the poisoned food or drink. The killer (who had a firearm concealed on themselves or nearby in case the plan goes to hell) shoots Gohda because he stays around long enough to see the people start to fall over dead. In this case the gun is their backup plan.

[plzd0ntkeelme]

Originally Posted by Goilveig

Rolling thunder does, there's more than one type. Thunder can also be a single loud crack, relatively high pitched and without any lingering sound. It depends on what kind of lightning caused it -- cloud-to-cloud lightning makes the lower rumbling sound, while cloud-to-ground makes the higher pitched crack.



Handguns are banned for any civilian use, simply owning one is a felony. Rifles and shotguns may be purchased if you have a hunting license. Silencers are also illegal to own.



They didn't necessarily choose to ignore it, they may not have been able to procure one.



My own theory is that the four in the meeting were poisoned, with Gohda as an unwitting accomplice in that he delivered the poisoned food or drink. The killer (who had a firearm concealed on themselves or nearby in case the plan goes to hell) shoots Gohda because he stays around long enough to see the people start to fall over dead. In this case the gun is their backup plan.

rofl first, I never heard a single thunder in my life that sounds close enough to be mistaken with a gunshot. Second, thunder comes with flashing light so if a sudden loud noise is heard without following bright light, these grown-ups should get ready for something.

Each of them can buy gun with silencer in US. Oh, and a maid is paid alot btw especially in such a rich family. So everyone has possibility of travelling overseas to get a hold of one. This also if your assumption is right that suppressors could not be obtained illegally in Japan.

The next question that you raise is why would the killer not bother to obtain anything for his plan illegally. He's about to kill 6 or more people. He can't be that afraid to break the law.

Wow so Gohda is that stupid to be fooled by his partner? Wow, it seems that you already know that character very well.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by plzd0ntkeelme

rofl first, I never heard a single thunder in my life that sounds close enough to be mistaken with a gunshot.

I definitely have. Had lightning strike a tree outside my house, it sounded like nothing if not a gunshot.

Second, thunder comes with flashing light so if a sudden loud noise is heard without following bright light, these grown-ups should get ready for something.

1. The people in bed presumably have their eyes closed.
2. You'd only see the flash if it was in the field of view of the window. If the windows in the room face east, and lightning strikes to the west, you'd see almost no flash.
3. If the windows have shutters, you'd only see a noticeable flash if the shutters are open.

Each of them can buy gun with silencer in US. Oh, and a maid is paid alot btw especially in such a rich family. So everyone has possibility of travelling overseas to get a hold of one. This also if your assumption is right that suppressors could not be obtained illegally in Japan.

Which also means they need to smuggle it back past customs, and of course they'd need to take the trip overseas in the first place.

The next question that you raise is why would the killer not bother to obtain anything for his plan illegally. He's about to kill 6 or more people. He can't be that afraid to break the law.

Every time you break the law, you increase the risk of being caught, too. And it would take a substantial amount of preparation; we don't know how far in advance the killings were planned.

Wow so Gohda is that stupid to be fooled by his partner? Wow, it seems that you already know that character very well.

I said unwitting, as in an accomplice who didn't know he was an accomplice. It could be done very easily:

1. Poison some particular foodstuff -- for example a particular blend of tea.
2. Have Gohda serve that food. Natsuhi or Kinzo could just ask directly, while one of the other servants could frame it as them relaying a request from one of the family members.
3. The killer is either in the room or just outside to observe the results and to shoot anyone that the poison failed to kill.

[June 1983]

Originally Posted by Mei19

I'm back again. Guns are involved now? I've been left behind in the discussion so I'd just pitch in whatever's on my mind right now. Based on these pictures...They obviously have been hit by something. It looks more like all 6 were lined up and were smashed by a wide round object right on their faces all at the same time. Krauss would be on the far left and Shannon would be the last one on the right. Then the corpses were just thrown on the storage.

I think this is the most sensible and thoughtful comment that's been posted in this thread so far. It does seem like they've been lined up in this manner, and either hit with something, or maybe crushed.

When you think about them lined up that way, there's one thing that it's interesting -- height differences. Gohda is quite taller than any of the others, I think, and I've also thought it was interesting that his mouth is still visible in the TIPS image -- so it's likely on the top of his face which was battered. Anyway, this makes me wonder if maybe they weren't standing up, but laid down when the were already dead.

About the handprints on Natsuhi's door why don't they just preserve the handprints, get out of the island, call authorities to determine whose fingerprints are those, plus the fingerprints on the victims (if there's one). This whole game of cat and mouse will be much easier. Thing is, that's definitely out of the question since they're going to have to solve the case the primitive way. More ridiculous unsolvable mystery = happier audience.

Well, of course, the whole problem is that they are stuck on the island, and will be until the typhoon passes and the boat can come to get them.

[Ithekro]

I think someone said the first rule of assasination, kill the assassin. If the murderer's partner is not known, but the murderer can be found, the partner killing the murderer makes it harder to find out who did what and for what reason...since the murderer can't talk anymore.

One should assume only legal items at this point. The more illegal an item one attempt to put into this the more problems come up. Namely customs and the actual ability to buy said item, inside or outside of Japan. For example while it is legal to purchase a suppressor in some American States, it is not legal in all states, plus Federal Law puts specific fines and background checks on such items, therefore I'm not sure if such an item can be purchased by a foreign national legally in the United States. Also the primary entry point into the United States from Japan in 1986 would probably be California, where it is illegal to posess such an item. By law, even if someone was able to purchase such an item legally, there would be a paper trail, and while that may or may not help an investigation later on if one is not looking for US records on the owner of a suppressor used in a murder on a Japanese island...it is a potental problem that could point a finger at the murder.

Secondary thought. If the murder was preplanned, they could not plan on a typhoon to hit the island. Weather is a thing one cannot predict very well. One might know a few days in advance, but to plan for it at the family gathering would be nearly impossible...so a preplanned murder that is designed to take into account the striking of thunder to cover up a gun shot is not a good idea.

So therefore either there was another plan to deal with the noise...or there was no noise.

[Goilveig]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Secondary thought. If the murder was preplanned, they could not plan on a typhoon to hit the island. Weather is a thing one cannot predict very well. One might know a few days in advance, but to plan for it at the family gathering would be nearly impossible...so a preplanned murder that is designed to take into account the striking of thunder to cover up a gun shot is not a good idea.

So therefore either there was another plan to deal with the noise...or there was no noise.

The noise could probably be ignored in a large mansion, assuming they planned to shoot people away from the sleeping areas. The sheer number of walls in between the shot and the people who could hear it are probably enough to suppress the noise entirely.

But yes, it's entirely possible the plan was put together on very short notice. If finances were the main objective, the sparring between Krauss and the siblings could be enough to drive someone to murder. The younger three siblings all need money and the oldest is being extorted; any of them would have motive to kill. That would mean they'd be limited to whatever resources are normally available on the island as tools for murder, but they'd also know about the typhoon.

[Ithekro]

Which brings us to motive rather than weapon.

Problem. Of the four siblings, three are killed that night. One remains: Eva. Battler's parents are both dead. Maria's mom is dead, and Jessica's father is dead. Add to this Shannon is dead as is Gohda. This starts to limit suspects, not only based on relation to the persons murdered, but also motive for wanting these people dead.

One can assume the children didn't murder these six people because each of them loses someone in the exchange (Battler two parents, Maria one, Jessica one, and George the woman he just proposed to.) However they can't be ruled out this early since we've been left with just the discovery of the bodies.

The remaining servants could be in on it, but they would either need to be able to gain something out of this (the gold perhaps), or be under orders (and thus loyal to someone).

The remaining three parents (Jessica's mother, and George's parents) are suspect due to the dispute over money and the letter about the gold. Kinzo...well he seems crazy, but he's dying anyway...I'm not sure if he can be put in as having motive unless it is purely to see Beatrice again. The Doctor....well we don't know much about him yet do we? We know he plays chess with Kinzo and thus can be assumed to be the family doctor and family friend. We can't guess at his motives just yet.

Beatrice? Well we've not "seen" her as of yet. There are supposedly 18 people on the island, and I guess only those 18 people, thus who or what is Beatrice? It is too early to say for sure.

I'd rule out Jessica as Beatrice in the instance of the umbrella since Jessica was with Battler and George heading back into the house. Rosa likely followed them a minute later.