North Korea Situation

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

More like they for some reason decided not to shoot it down. It's impossible no one will not notice something like this...let alone the East Asian country which has invested the most in ABM defence

That is weird. If there was a time to test that defense system, it would have been the right time by shooting down that thing. Go figure how complex the protocol to fire countermeasures is.

Originally Posted by Semblance_of_Power

China doesn't want millions of uneducated refugees flooding it's border with NK

Hypothetically speaking, would that happen if China were the ones launching a military invasion for the single purpose of getting rid of Fatso and putting a puppet president in place though? I'm not sure refugees would converge to the North and it would be borderline suicidal to try going to the South.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

That is weird. If there was a time to test that defense system, it would have been the right time by shooting down that thing. Go figure how complex the protocol to fire countermeasures is.



Hypothetically speaking, would that happen if China were the ones launching a military invasion for the single purpose of getting rid of Fatso and putting a puppet president in place though? I'm not sure refugees would converge to the North and it would be borderline suicidal to try going to the South.

if China decide to replace fatso it wouldn't be with a invasion but a sniper rifle and a coupe.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

That is weird. If there was a time to test that defense system, it would have been the right time by shooting down that thing. Go figure how complex the protocol to fire countermeasures is.:uh

Most probably because they could see it wouldn't hit mainland Japan and decided not to escalate or to keep capabilities hidden.


Although I'd say shooting it down would score some PR points for sure

[Brother Coa]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

Hypothetically speaking, would that happen if China were the ones launching a military invasion for the single purpose of getting rid of Fatso and putting a puppet president in place though? I'm not sure refugees would converge to the North and it would be borderline suicidal to try going to the South.

1. China will never invade the country that is currently most useful to them in keeping west occupied. And basically trolling them.

2. In event that NK and China go all out China will just sit on their side of the border and let NK invade South Korea thus prompting US attack. Why would Chinese bleed their own military when they can make US do it?

3. That will never happen because not even Chinese don't want to bother with 20+ million refugees.

[KiraYamatoFan]

Originally Posted by Semblance_of_Power

The issue is that we know so few facts about how the NK regime actually works that it makes it difficult to understand why they act the way they do and who exactly is responsible for their policies.

Maybe Kim Jong-un is a perfectly reasonable person, as much as the leader of a homicidal regime can be such a thing, that's all for better relationships with the world but there's some old school hard-line military faction that wields too much power and he has to keep doing crazy, provocative shite to keep them happy. Maybe it's the other way around.

In any case, the fact that the country is led by one or more loose cannons is a situation that can hardly be tolerable in the longer term for anybody. Throughout history, loose cannons always end up dead or silenced forever because they are simply too dangerous to be kept around.

So i guess the ideal situation for China would be an obedient NK regime that serves as a buffer against the US and SK and is managed well enough not to implode, but direct military action against a supposed "communist" ally would still imply direct confrontation with at least a faction of a regime with a ton of, albeit really outdated, military hardware and possibly short range tactical nukes.

In an extreme case where an invasion takes place, those nukes would be primary targets for bombings. But as for the rest of the North Korean military hardware, they are likely to be targets for a turkey shoot against assault helicopters and fighter-bombers.

The reason why I raised the hypothetical question was that history has shown since 1954 that "allies" who go rogue against any superpower end up being swiftly invaded. Furthermore, some PLA generals might feel the need to test their new toys as well (just as in any big army). Last but not least, Kim Jong-Un's elder brother lived in China for a good amount of time during his exile; he might just be that puppet China would consider putting in place without creating too much controversy inside North Korea.

The military, economic and political cost of that just seems too high, specially because it wouldn't be just a Western style bombing campaign while hoping some third party on the ground gets the job done, it would probably require a full on invasion and temporary occupation and that sure as hell would produce a ton of refugees that would now be their responsibility in the eyes of the international community, plus all the aforementioned panic in global markets. It just seems like a solution that's worse than the problem itself.

Well, it could also be a swift invasion with tons of NK soldiers surrendering at the sight of the PLA. In such case, we may not talk about a refugee crisis, but only about minor migrations that don't even make up for one million people. I still remember the old videos in which Saddam called for jihad before Desert Storm and reporters talking about the prospect of chemical warfare, but only to later see that Iraqi troops surrendered by the thousands within 4 days of open battles.

On a sidenote: I'm quite surprised that for all the usual hawkish talk by the CCP/PLA against the US and Japan, they don't push to have a good testing battleground somewhere (like North Korea). Is there such a lack of faith in the PLA's capabilities?

[Brother Coa]

Originally Posted by KiraYamatoFan

In any case, the fact that the country is led by one or more loose cannons is a situation that can hardly be tolerable in the longer term for anybody. Throughout history, loose cannons always end up dead or silenced forever because they are simply too dangerous to be kept around.

It's not that easy as you think....

-NK have nukes, we don't know how many but they have them. And being crazy as they are I have no doubt that they would nuke their own territory at the first sign of invading army. Pretty much like Russians would if invaded and pushed from their current borders.

-On top of that you have entire nation of fanatics who are taught from birth that everyone except Kim is hating them because they are "superior nation". So invading NK would be pretty much like invading Japan in 1945 - hundreds upon thousands of dead soldiers for the invading force.

-And the biggest issue here: the population itself. North Korea has 24,895,000 people, let that sink in for a while... Let's say that the war is won and Kim is put down from power. You think that those 24+ million people would just sit around and do nothing? As soon as world opens to them and they learn for good western way of life is South Korea and Japan would face immigration crisis like EU is right now - only 10x bigger. And nobody, and I mean nobody wants that large number of refugees.

North Korea will be left alone indefinitely. It's just too costly for anyone to bring them down, and the consequences of their downfall woudl be even bigger for the region. Never-mind world economy as refugees woudl swarm 4 very powerful economic houses and cause havoc.

As it stands North Korea will be left alone, they know it and they are using the best of this situation. Only time will tell what will happen, but as world power slowly shifts from US to China and Russia the question of NK will be open for interpretation in the future.

[quigonkenny]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

if China decide to replace fatso it wouldn't be with a invasion but a sniper rifle and a coupe.

I'm guessing the lack of someone in place to lead that coup is probably the only thing keeping that from already happening. And China is hardly the only country who would see the value in doing something like that. Swiftly and cleanly replacing Kim Jong Un and his inner circle with someone less inured to near-religious fanatical devotion and xenophobic paranoia, however that comes around, is in the best interest of everyone. Problem is, the idea of "near-religious fanatical devotion and xenophobic paranoia" being a virtue is hammered into every NK citizen from birth.

[Kakurin]

China's interest on the Korean peninsula is the maintenance of the status quo. They neither have an interest in a collapse of internal order in North Korea with all the associated uncertainties, nor do they have an interest in the extension of American influence up to the Yalu. The Chinese don't care who is running the show in North Korea as long as they don't try to overthrow the status quo. Thus the Chinese also have no interest whatsoever in a military excursion into North Korea and the Chinese aren't blind. They have noticed that the West's supposedly swift military endeavours the last decade and a half have left a bigger chaos than the pre-war status was.

[ImperialKnight]

Originally Posted by Kakurin-san

China's interest on the Korean peninsula is the maintenance of the status quo. They neither have an interest in a collapse of internal order in North Korea with all the associated uncertainties, nor do they have an interest in the extension of American influence up to the Yalu. The Chinese don't care who is running the show in North Korea as long as they don't try to overthrow the status quo. Thus the Chinese also have no interest whatsoever in a military excursion into North Korea and the Chinese aren't blind. They have noticed that the West's supposedly swift military endeavours the last decade and a half have left a bigger chaos than the pre-war status was.

To build up on this.

Invading a country is simple. The Chinese or anybody else could probably neutralize the North Koreans in a straight forward fight assuming the nukes are out of the picture or just nuked.

The problem is what to do "AFTER" you've won. You can't just invade a country and leave 20 million people alone you have to take care of them.

I'm pretty sure the South Koreans are well aware of this as well and aren't exactly keen on it.

[Ithekro]

I am pretty sure there are South Korean unificationists that have a plan in mind.

[Eisdrache]

Originally Posted by ImperialKnight

I'm pretty sure the South Koreans are well aware of this as well and aren't exactly keen on it.

While I do agree with the rest of what you said this annoys me every time I hear it. It is clear as day that it would be better for Korea to be united again even if the south would have to support the north for a very long time. Building up the north to the point where it can actually take care of itself will take decades and require billions indeed but when you're weighing the unification of the country, potentially saving millions of lives from starvation and removing the threat of a nutcase with nukes against setting back your economy for an extended period of time, the decision shouldn't be that hard.

Of course you'd have to find a way that doesn't include your country turning into a radioactive wasteland first.

[Ithekro]

It is unfortunate that our former unificationist (Greater Korea) expert was banned some time ago. She's be on this quickly.

[Xellos-_^]

same with our German and EU expert. He would have some insight on unification.

[quigonkenny]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

While I do agree with the rest of what you said this annoys me every time I hear it. It is clear as day that it would be better for Korea to be united again even if the south would have to support the north for a very long time. Building up the north to the point where it can actually take care of itself will take decades and require billions indeed but when you're weighing the unification of the country, potentially saving millions of lives from starvation and removing the threat of a nutcase with nukes against setting back your economy for an extended period of time, the decision shouldn't be that hard.

Of course you'd have to find a way that doesn't include your country turning into a radioactive wasteland first.

I'm more worried about what unification with North Korea would do to the massive regional success story that is South Korea. Absorbing another 60%-odd people into your population, many of whom were at least nominally fine with the "nutcase with nukes" currently in power, and all of whom have been ingrained from birth with the "truth" that the outside world, particularly that part south of the border, is the root of all evil, isn't exactly a proposition fraught with opportunity.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

How much does S-Korean citizens feel about the odds of being attacked for real?

Because if they start to believe NK would never actually attack, then it just might make economic sense to just ignore them.

But if there is a belief of a real danger of war, then the economic costs of reunification could be worth actually no longer worry about still being technically at war.

It's just that the Koreas are stuck in a situation where they are at peace, but not really. And limbo is just not going one way or another.

[quigonkenny]

Originally Posted by Semblance_of_Power

I don't know how public opinion is in SK regarding the costs of possible reunification, but somehow I doubt it would be very politically desirable having to say to a country: "well we're all economically crippled for the next 40 or 50 years but your grandchildren will probably live in a very strong regional power".

To which the average South Korean would probably say, "We're already a 'strong regional power', largely because of our economy, and if we have to put up with 40 or 50 years of crippled economy, then chances are our grandchildren will be speaking Mandarin."

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by quigonkenny

To which the average South Korean would probably say, "We're already a 'strong regional power', largely because of our economy, and if we have to put up with 40 or 50 years of crippled economy, then chances are our grandchildren will be speaking Mandarin."

But that also assumes that NK will NEVER be a real threat.

Wouldn't it be economically beneficial for S-Korea to never have to worry about having their Capital blown up by artillery shells? Or has the citizens already gotten used to the threat and stopped caring? Does the Korean citizens truly care so little about solving the war that never officially ended?

[Brother Coa]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Wouldn't it be economically beneficial for S-Korea to never have to worry about having their Capital blown up by nukes?

Fix that for you.

And no, people of South Korea pretty much see NK situation as "normal" and are aware that North will never attack them. After all, entire North campaign and propaganda is about defense, not offense. They are also perfectly happy with they are right abotu now because, as post above said - in the end South Korea will eventually fall under influence of China. Japan as well given enough time.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Brother Coa

They are also perfectly happy with they are right abotu now because, as post above said - in the end South Korea will eventually fall under influence of China. Japan as well given enough time.

That's rather pessimistic don't you think?

The Vietnamese people have managed to keep the Chinese out of their country for centuries, and they never once considered the possibility of not being able to keep this up. If Vietnam has confidence in themselves, why not the Koreans?

[Brother Coa]

Vietnam was only able to do so because there was always good old US of A to keep China in check.

Take them out of the equation and even Vietnam will have no choice in the end but to start openly trading with China and submit to any of their demands - be it economical or political.