Ukrainian Conflict

[Sackett]

Originally Posted by risingstar3110

On your last point, it's a dangerous thought to think that joining Western influence is Ukraine's sure way to prosperity. As I mentioned in this thread. Ukraine holds up to 10% of European Union population, but only have GDP equivalent of 2%. Its GDP per capital is just 20% of the EU average, and just 50% of EU's lowest member. Taking Ukraine in will be like allowing Colombia to be one of American states and gives Colombia people full right and citizenships (that is 48 millions people with average GDP of 11k). Or suddenly having another 100 cities like Detroit, but half as poor, popping up in the same time within America

Personally i don't think Ukraine will join EU any time soon, if ever at all. Especially when big EU players like France and German already tired with the financial support demand from its current member. Even German Chancellor expressed that Poland's initiative to invite Ukraine (which does not guaranteer membership) was a mistake, and that Ukrainie may have to take in IMF loan rather than EU financial support to pay its debt. Yes I'm talking about a fake promise here that may (possibly) see a bitter Ukraine coup to favour pro-Russia in near future

Which is yet another point about how foolish this move is. You are quite right that Ukraine becoming a prosperous Western member of the EU is not a done deal, nor even likely at this point.

That's what I'm trying to say. Russia's position and influence in Ukraine was not under serious threat. Just be patient and wait a while and the tide would naturally turn back to Russia - even if the Ukraine successfully integrated with the EU, Russia would still have a more dominant position in the Ukraine then some distant nation like France. Heck, Russia might even have been able to take advantage of the situation- let the EU pay for Ukraine improvements until they fail. That way when Ukraine came back to Russia, Ukraine would need less money from Russia.

Instead Putin has escalated the situation. Now Ukrainians are going to be hostile to Russia for a generation. Why? Because Russia invaded them.

Like I said, this action in Ukraine put's Putin's short term advantage above Russia's long term interests. Some day Putin will be dead, but Russia is still going to have to live with his decisions.

Is Putin really so weak that he couldn't absorb a short term loss in Ukraine influence? A loss that was obviously going to be reversed at some point (just as the Orange Revolution petered out and reversed in Russia's favor).

Obama is almost as bad. He's made foreign policy decisions based on what he thinks will make him look good back home (like the current empty threats), and doesn't seem to care about the long term effects that will continue after his Presidency.

[AnimeFan188]

Russia says intercepted US drone over Crimea: arms group:

"A United States surveillance drone has been intercepted above the Ukranian region of Crimea, a Russian state arms and technology
group said Friday."

See:

http://news.yahoo.com/russia-says-in...180430584.html

[konart]

Originally Posted by Sackett

Which is yet another point about how foolish this move is. You are quite right that Ukraine becoming a prosperous Western member of the EU is not a done deal, nor even likely at this point.

That's what I'm trying to say. Russia's position and influence in Ukraine was not under serious threat. Just be patient and wait a while and the tide would naturally turn back to Russia - even if the Ukraine successfully integrated with the EU, Russia would still have a more dominant position in the Ukraine then some distant nation like France. Heck, Russia might even have been able to take advantage of the situation- let the EU pay for Ukraine improvements until they fail. That way when Ukraine came back to Russia, Ukraine would need less money from Russia.

Instead Putin has escalated the situation. Now Ukrainians are going to be hostile to Russia for a generation. Why? Because Russia invaded them.

Like I said, this action in Ukraine put's Putin's short term advantage above Russia's long term interests. Some day Putin will be dead, but Russia is still going to have to live with his decisions.

Is Putin really so weak that he couldn't absorb a short term loss in Ukraine influence? A loss that was obviously going to be reversed at some point (just as the Orange Revolution petered out and reversed in Russia's favor).

Obama is almost as bad. He's made foreign policy decisions based on what he thinks will make him look good back home (like the current empty threats), and doesn't seem to care about the long term effects that will continue after his Presidency.

It wouldn't be short term loss when Ukraine is in NATO

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by risingstar3110

You can't assimilate the situation without looking at case by case basis. It's like saying the British bombing Iraq, and then they will bomb German next , because that is what happened in WW2, or they will bomb Saudi next because they are all human right violating Middle Easterners (in oppose to Ukraine and Poland to be both Eastern Europe).

Yes, but if you're polish, and Russia goes and invades/annexes half of a country next door to you, are you going to not treat Russian invasion as a very real possibility? It's fine and dandy to treat invasion as some abstract hypothetical until it's your country that has to start planning a defense.


Depending on how far Russia encroaches into the Ukraine, and how badly they trash the Ukrainian army, Poland might have to deal with the very real possibility of their border being within striking distance of Russian ground forces. And even if it was only a hypothetical worst case scenario, Poland still has to prepare/plan around a counter against it.

[konart]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

Yes, but if you're polish, and Russia goes and invades/annexes half of a country next door to you, are you going to not treat Russian invasion as a very real possibility? It's fine and dandy to treat invasion as some abstract hypothetical until it's your country that has to start planning a defense.


Depending on how far Russia encroaches into the Ukraine, and how badly they trash the Ukrainian army, Poland might have to deal with the very real possibility of their border being within striking distance of Russian ground forces. And even if it was only a hypothetical worst case scenario, Poland still has to prepare/plan around a counter against it.

Do not forget that Poland is a part of NATO, they don't really have to fear much. I really doubt Russia will be glad to fight with EU or NATO as a whole

[sneaker]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

Depending on how far Russia encroaches into the Ukraine, and how badly they trash the Ukrainian army, Poland might have to deal with the very real possibility of their border being within striking distance of Russian ground forces.

Poland already shares a border with Russia.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by sneaker

Poland already shares a border with Russia.

Kaliningrad Oblast is pretty small and isolated from Russia proper though, and by itself doesn't really represent a threat to Poland...it's also a highly productive economic region. The kind of military buildup needed to be a threat to Poland would risk having the fighting taking place in one of Russia's economic breadbaskets.

Originally Posted by konart

Do not forget that Poland is a part of NATO, they don't really have to fear much. I really doubt Russia will be glad to fight with EU or NATO as a whole

I guess that also brings up the question of how much Poland trusts NATO. It's an unlikely scenario, but I bet allot of Polish leaders aren't exactly enthralled with the track record of Western Europe coming to their defense.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

I guess that also brings up the question of how much Poland trusts NATO. It's an unlikely scenario, but I bet allot of Polish leaders aren't exactly enthralled with the track record of Western Europe coming to their defense.

"Would NATO start WW3 to defend Poland?"

That's the question. You know, like asking if Austria is worth defending when WW2 started.

The Polish clearly don't want to risk the possibility that NATO would sacrifice them to save the planet. Appeasement happens; Poland remembered all too well how that worked when the Allies needed Stalin's help. When it comes to the crunch the Polish has no one but themselves to count on.

[AnimeFan188]

U.S. Denies Claims of Drones Intercepted Over Crimea:

"Senior U.S. military and intelligence officials denied reports in Russian media Friday
that U.S. drones of any kind are flying over Crimea in Ukraine.

The Voice of Russia, a division of the Russian news agency Interfax, had reported
that an “American scout-attack drone” was intercepted while performing
reconnaissance in Crimean airspace, according to the Rostec state corporation."

See:

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukr...-crimea-n53231

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

"Would NATO start WW3 to defend Poland?"

That's the question. You know, like asking if Austria is worth defending when WW2 started.

The Polish clearly don't want to risk the possibility that NATO would sacrifice them to save the planet. Appeasement happens; Poland remembered all too well how that worked when the Allies needed Stalin's help. When it comes to the crunch the Polish has no one but themselves to count on.

It also helps to remember that for all the hubulabu about NATO being this gigantic threat against Russia, the willingness of the member states to come to each-others defense is very much hypothetical. Especially in the post Cold War Era. It's not written in the stars that NATO membership is golden immunity. I think that's one reason why the big NATO players are willing to make a bit stink over the Crimea, even if it's only sanctions and diplomatic condemnation. If they literally did nothing but roll over, some might feel it could bring into question if the NATO member states care enough about these kind of situations to uphold their defense obligations.


That's why Poland is probably keeping at least the possibility that they can't rely on Western Europe somewhere in the back of their head.

[Ithekro]

Where would an American drone launch from to fly over the Crimea?

[konart]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Where would an American drone launch from to fly over the Crimea?

According to russian media the captured drone (if there was one) has board labeling of American 66th Military Intelligence Brigade stationed in Bavaria
source: http://translate.google.com/translat..._6013177.shtml

[Ithekro]

That's pretty good range for a drone.

[sa547]

Originally Posted by AnimeFan188

U.S. Denies Claims of Drones Intercepted Over Crimea:

"Senior U.S. military and intelligence officials denied reports in Russian media Friday
that U.S. drones of any kind are flying over Crimea in Ukraine.

The Voice of Russia, a division of the Russian news agency Interfax, had reported
that an “American scout-attack drone” was intercepted while performing
reconnaissance in Crimean airspace, according to the Rostec state corporation."

See:

http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukr...-crimea-n53231

Preds have very long range and endurance, but the larger Global Hawks fly much higher and farther.

Last time some years ago they shot down a Georgian drone with an air-to-air missile, all of which everything was captured by the drone's camera in a few seconds before it was destroyed.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by konart

According to russian media the captured drone (if there was one) has board labeling of American 66th Military Intelligence Brigade stationed in Bavaria
source: http://translate.google.com/translat..._6013177.shtml

Well it is said that the Russians jacked the drone and took it down. Wonder how much of that is true.

[konart]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Well it is said that the Russians jacked the drone and took it down. Wonder how much of that is true.

Considering it's not some newest model - it's not that hard. You just break the communication between the drone and it's operator, drone goes into emergency mode.

The thin is - emergency mode can be different. In one case drone can just land at the point it lost it's connection, but it can be also programmed to behave differently in this situation. So... will never know

[Slayerx]

Exit polls
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4975491.html

93% vote to join russia, with a supposed 80% turn out...
Considering how only 60% of the population is ethnically Russian, with the other 40% being made up of mostly Ukrainians and Tatars, the results are more than a little suspicious. But considering how there wasn't an actual "no" option on the ballots, it was obvious that this vote was going to be rigged from the beginning.

[konart]

Originally Posted by Slayerx

Exit polls
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2014/0...n_4975491.html

93% vote to join russia, with a supposed 80% turn out...
Considering how only 60% of the population is ethnically Russian, with the other 40% being made up of mostly Ukrainians and Tatars, the results are more than a little suspicious. But considering how there wasn't an actual "no" option on the ballots, it was obvious that this vote was going to be rigged from the beginning.

One should note that Tatars decided to boycott the referendum, so none of them (most likely) even took a chance.

[Haak]

Yeah, if they did vote it probably would've been 92%.

XP

[konart]

Originally Posted by Haak

Yeah, if they did vote it probably would've been 92%.

XP

More like 85% I guess

Anyway - it's been decided long ago already. Even banks told their clients they are going to operate in RUR starting March 17 two days before referendum .