2010-04-08, 23:45 | Link #7801 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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While it is plainly obvious the mystery is intended to be solvable, and the scene in Ep5 is meant to show to us the moment when Battler himself does, it does not necessarily mean that the author correctly judged his audience and actually did make the mystery solvable. After all, the state of 'solvability' is not only intellect-dependent but also culturally-dependent, we may simply not possess the information the author takes for granted because he comes from a given culture, or, he may simply assume that all of his readers know or consider obvious something that is actually obvious only to him. Or he may have assumed as obvious something that is actually wrong according to everyone else's experience! There is basically no way to know for sure unless we stumble on something that looks like The Answer™ that does allow us to unravel the rest of the scarf. What everyone is mostly doing is looking for suitable locations to cut the thread at, not pulling at ones that stick out, figuratively speaking -- miles of discussions on the proper interpretation of red and semantic trickery may lead to it but are definitely not 'it'. Seeing as how the Japanese fanbase have not arrived at anything that looks like a consensus yet either, (or we'd know by now) whatever it is may not actually be culturally dependent, but as a proverb goes, "Searching for a black cat in a dark room is very hard, especially if the cat isn't there." What we know is that the author wanted the cat to be there. The bloody thing could have ran away. The entire body of author commentary gives us a way to define certain characteristics The Answer™ so we know what we should actually look for:
Not really that much to go on by itself, but here's my take on the characteristics of The Answer™ that I think follow from those: It has been long suggested that there are at least two, possibly more, factions, which commit different murders, and I suppose this is correct, but in the 'possibly more' kind of way. Someone kicks it off as soon as the starting trigger condition occurs, and the ball starts rolling, one murder excuses further murders as everyone starts snapping. I very much suspect that in the end, there is no single 'culprit' at all, nor a single 'mastermind', and Battler is literally the only character who doesn't have any blood on his hands directly. As compensation, he is the one who is responsible for all of it by somehow creating the situation where the entire chain of murders is inevitable. This much has even been said in red. The real question is how something that a 12-year old kid could possibly do could cause a cascade like this in six years. Text seems to hint at a broken promise, especially heavily leaning towards a broken promise to Shannon in particular, however, the obvious interpretation of this results in Shannon becoming a singular mastermind or similar, which I think is not the case -- not because she couldn't kill anyone, but because she couldn't kill everyone, no matter the help, posthumous or not. Assuming that murders after the First Twilight occur 'in response' to the first batch doesn't work very well either, in my opinion -- it appears to me that they occur because once the first mass murder happened, they are now permitted. Why must one person be responsible for killing 13 people if they can all share the workload. There's also some things I don't see discussed much which I suspect may be related:
Mind you, I have nothing even close to a coherent or partial theory. I'm just pretty sure that nothing I have read to date in the thread is The Answer™, though many of the things look plausible, amusing or interesting. P.S. If you ask me, the most suspicious character is Maria, particularly because she can't actually execute almost any of the murdering, staking, or corpse-dragging activities herself. At the same time, the entire metaphorical side of the story, the 'magic world', is so tightly connected to Maria's worldview and 'psychic reality', so to speak, that it's as if like hers is the reliable perspective and everyone else's is only her deduction. |
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2010-04-09, 00:20 | Link #7802 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
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Also, Ryuukishi never said that people will start dying one by one again after Hideyoshi's death. That might or might not be the case.
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2010-04-09, 00:38 | Link #7803 |
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Join Date: May 2009
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He said you could figure out what happens, not necessarily that anyone would be killed, how, whether it would follow the epitaph, or whether you'd be able to correctly guess the exact order in which people are murdered. Those details may not be as important as we think they are to figuring out "what happens."
And he could just be referring to the midnight incident. At this point, I think just about everyone would agree that something happens to kill those who remain at that time, so if ryukishi were to say we could all guess that the event would happen at the end of ep5, I don't think he'd be at all wrong, as most everyone does think that. Also ep3 follows the epitaph pretty closely, even though it was solved. We still have the gougings in their proper places. The MO of the killings changes entirely, but the stakings remain consistent. And in ep5, if you believe Hideyoshi was really murdered, then what of the stake that was allegedly used on him? Sounds like somebody was trying to follow the epitaph, even though the stakes are technically optional for the Second Twilight. I doubt a stake would be the only weapon a killer would have available to take out Hideyoshi, given other episodes. |
2010-04-09, 00:50 | Link #7804 | ||
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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I'm guessing a multi-culprit theory is very hard to put together... Especially now that in EP5 we've been shown that not all schemers are commiting murders (Natsuhi, Kumasawa, Genji, Nanjo, etc.) Quote:
So if this theory is true then Maria is like the opposite to Battler. Her perspective will always show who is producing the 'magic' for her to see. In that way she is like the Black King to Battler's White King... So I'm hoping someone will add some more details on what Maria has seen through EP1-6 and to see if some suspicious person appears... 8) |
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2010-04-09, 01:01 | Link #7805 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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I wondered if Kanon's full name is Yoshiya Kinzo, while Shannon's full name is Sayo Kinzo.
-------------------------------- Single-culprit, or one-mastermind theory Kylon99 you were saying? I never saw a single-culprit theory so far... I guessed it was obvously that killings were not done by one single person, some murders may be done because some initially innocent people wrongly believed that some other people were responsible for the murders and took revenge (like EP3). But the staking, letters-in-the-bottle, money-in-the-safe were hints to a killing intent behind Umineko.
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2010-04-09, 01:07 | Link #7806 | |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Which of course completely breaks the patter of using Beelzebub on him. |
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2010-04-09, 01:07 | Link #7807 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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2010-04-09, 01:12 | Link #7808 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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Ryu07 said that for someone who would never think of revenging for a family member, a fiction using it as a motive would be incomprehensible to that person.
I believe the killing motive behind Umineko is a judgment over Ushiromiya family, which will be incomprehensible to certain people. ----------- Obvously, Maria is the black queen and Beatrice as black queen or sometimes black pawn, black knight, black bishop. Battler is the white king. But who is white queen?
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2010-04-09, 01:19 | Link #7809 | ||
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
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So I've been wondering lately if someone had this sort of thought process: "We had a plan to fake some deaths, and then people really did get murdered. The murderer might try to take advantage of our plan to fake his own death, so we should make sure all the corpses we find really are corpses. That way we won't have to suspect them." |
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2010-04-09, 01:20 | Link #7810 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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And it's curve for curve on Maria's head for some reason. |
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2010-04-09, 01:30 | Link #7812 | ||
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2009
Location: HK, China
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Maria was probably protected by all fantasy characters, but she have the potential to be a very powerful witch when she grows up. Quote:
---------------------------------------------- One thing I want to raise: I believe it is possible for anyone (female or not) to give the letter to Maria, as long as they claimed to be Beatrice (possessed) and behave according to how Maria thought she had to behave. Because in Ep3, when Eva-Beatrice came out and said she was Beatrice, Maria just happily said that it was Beatrice and urged Rosa to see her. Of course after being tortured by this "Beatrice", she realized it was not the Beatrice she knew. Therefore, it was possible even for Nanjo, Kanon to give the letter to Maria, as long as they knew how Beatrice was to imposed.
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2010-04-09, 01:32 | Link #7813 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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2010-04-09, 01:40 | Link #7814 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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Piece-Battler's role is the representative of the human side, which is why he dies last, why he doesn't do much other than observe and cry, and why we normally think of him as the white king. With his defeat the game ends. If Maria is the black king, she is similarly the viewport for the witch side player, who doesn't do much, because her role is to observe, cry (Uuu!) and provide a magical viewpoint. So why doesn't the game end when she dies? Oh, and there's more than one Beatrice in the first place. Meta-Beatrice is the player for the witch side, and as such is off the board. Piece-Beatrice would have to be the black queen, whichever character ends up being one. |
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2010-04-09, 01:46 | Link #7815 |
The Great Dine
Join Date: Feb 2009
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Well the interesting thing is that as soon as the epitaph is solved then Maria dies. So if Maria is the black king then solving the epitaph could be the equivalent of a checkmate.
Although two out of the three times she wasn't actually dead when discovered. |
2010-04-09, 02:35 | Link #7816 |
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Join Date: May 2009
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If the epitaph is revealed to be a "childish" puzzle leading to hidden gold, as Eva insinuates when she finally solves it, then it is clearly not a magical murder ritual, and everyone would know this.
So in the sense that the epitaph is the weapon of the witch side, solving it and proving it's not magical at all is essentially checkmate against black. The killings just happen not to stop. Guess one of the killers isn't playing chess... |
2010-04-09, 02:40 | Link #7817 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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By the way, if that is true, he probably concluded Nanjo was the murderer and killed him in EP2. But that was yet another mistake, like how Eva believed Battler was dangerous since he was the only one left or something... Unless his orders were to silence Nanjo since he knew too much... aughh.. it's tough to decide who is being malicious and who is being honest (but still killing people...) The real culprit or mastermind probably set his/her plan in motion and didn't really need to kill very many more than maybe the first twilight 6 to get everyone into killing sprees then... geez. |
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2010-04-09, 09:06 | Link #7818 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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The first "Beatrice letter" promises that "Everything will be returned including the part already collected." upon solving the epitaph. That is only possible if the first twilight victims are not supposed to actually be dead in the first place and Beatrice keeps her promises and should at least set up to keep this one. But it does not make sense if the adult parents (as the usual victims) are playing the dead willingly, i.e. are bribed or coerced, as they are the most actively discussing the letter, looking for Beatrice's real identity, and otherwise disbelieving. Perfect exemplary victims for a showoff 'murder' - very bad supporters for the illusion which is so important that it must not be broken. Therefore, to play dead for extended periods of time, they all have to be sedated or otherwise knocked out chemically, and it's not like it hasn't been hinted at with Rosa looking at her empty bottle of child sedatives like it was supposed to be full. It is definitely not optional, since otherwise, "Magic-Beatrice" takes on an unacceptable amount of risk by relying on the acting abilities of unwilling participants. |
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2010-04-09, 14:27 | Link #7819 |
Blick Winkel
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: Gobbled up by Promathia
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Ah yes, I see.
Perhaps the term "culprit" I used was not the best choice of words. I'm guessing "mastermind" is better. After all, Spoiler for Higurashi:
Now, I'm just throwing something out there (I really don't know if this is the case or not, but it's a scenario I've never seen anyone talk about): What if Kinzo is the mastermind? Even though he is dead, we cannot remove him from suspicion. Perhaps Kinzo told his servants to commit the murders. Maybe not even his servants; what if he told Eva or Rosa that they could become the next family head if certain people died? Or maybe it's something we don't know about? We know that our Battler (not the REAL one, as described in Episode 4) had some strange circumstances regarding his birth. Although it is not stated in the Red, it is said that the second Battler was used... as part of of a conspiracy to steal the inheritance. We also know that Battler did was not Asumu's son, but he is still Kinzo's grandson. We also know that Battler has a sin. For these reasons, I think that Battler is a key part of why everything happens. So, maybe either Battler or Kinzo is responsible for the deaths. Now, I realize that there is no evidence to support these theories. However, as described in the novel itself, it is harmful to think the same way the entire time. Since we do not have access to the world of Rokkenjima like Battler does, all we can do is theorize. By making tons and tons of theories, though, we can come closer to our final answer. So instead of thinking in terms of "what happens to change the outcome," it might be a good idea to think of "what already happened to cause the situation in the first place." That might get us somewhere, I think. |
2010-04-09, 14:30 | Link #7820 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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There are actually tons of hints for your theory. The servants only master is Kinzo, but they still have to follow the orders of anyone who wears the one winged eagle. Any of the family members besides Kinzo can order the servants when he is not there and they can order them to do anything they want.
I also have an assumption that the head can order the family members because of his rank.
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