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Old 2020-05-22, 00:58   Link #461
Guardian Enzo
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Klobuchar is qualified to be president (has been a senator for a good while, and pretty well-respected for her preparedness and intelligence). She's a midwesterner, from a swing state, and theoretically could help in places like WI and MI. She's safe, not too controversial, and young enough to be a logical successor in either 4 or 8 years. It's not hard to see the rationale for choosing her - I just don't buy into that rationale. In an election where almost all the fundamentals favor Biden already, the one big exception is the enthusiasm gap. If he wants to try and address that via his veep pick (which is historically very difficult to do) Warren is the only one who gives him a chance to do it.

Last edited by Guardian Enzo; 2020-05-23 at 07:44.
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Old 2020-05-22, 10:28   Link #462
ramlaen
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I look forward to the excuses made for the openly racist statement Biden made this morning.
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Old 2020-05-22, 11:21   Link #463
mangamuscle
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Judge not, that ye be not judged.
For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again.
And why beholdest thou the mote that is in thy brother's eye, but considerest not the beam that is in thine own eye?
Or how wilt thou say to thy brother, Let me pull out the mote out of thine eye; and, behold, a beam is in thine own eye?
Thou hypocrite, first cast out the beam out of thine own eye; and then shalt thou see clearly to cast out the mote out of thy brother's eye.

— Matthew 7:1-5

Donald Trump’s long history of racism, from the 1970s to 2019
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Old 2020-05-22, 13:00   Link #464
ganbaru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramlaen View Post
I look forward to the excuses made for the openly racist statement Biden made this morning.
I can't say if it was more racism or the decade of taking the votes of the black community for granted.
As for the excuses, I wouldn't expect much unless the mainstream media talk much about it but I expect them to barely mention it, save for FoxNews of course.
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Old 2020-05-23, 05:51   Link #465
Jaden
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Yeah I don't really care whether some remark was racist or not.

I'd say Biden has gotten with the program, which is: Individuals don't exist in politics anymore beyond their race, gender, and maybe membership in certain other interest groups. It's a good platform for Biden, because he's not a very inspiring individual himself, and people are already more concerned about his VP pick than himself.
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Old 2020-05-23, 17:55   Link #466
Key Board
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I used to think that gaffes mattered.. years ago
but than I saw Trump before and after election.
No, it absolutely does not matter in America

This will not hurt Joe Biden. Maybe if he wasn't the nominee it would, but otherwise no.

//
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Question with boldness even the existence of a God; because, if there be one, he must more approve of the homage of reason, than that of blind-folded fear. - Thomas Jefferson

Last edited by Key Board; 2020-05-23 at 18:09.
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Old 2020-05-24, 08:35   Link #467
SeijiSensei
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Republicans want to portray the race as a choice between Trump and Biden. The rest of us know it's a referendum on Trump's performance in office. That's why I expect Trump's various efforts to smear Biden will have little effect. It's not 2016. We've had nearly four years of watching this doofus in office. There's a reason his job approval score never broke fifty since Inauguration Day, and it's not because of malfeasance by the Democrats, liberals, the media, or the "deep state."

He's even lost my age cohort, something nearly unthinkable just a couple of years ago. Part of that might be demographic change as my Vietnam-era age peers become a larger fraction of 65+, but I've looked hard for evidence of this in surveys like the General Social Survey and find little support for this theory so far. I've also been plotting his support among seniors. His job approval among 65+ voters dropped sharply in January and February, rebounded a bit in March, but has fallen again. Having Republican office-holders and Trump's buddies on FoxNews routinely suggest seniors should give up their lives for the economy has probably not helped.

Last edited by SeijiSensei; 2020-05-24 at 08:51.
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Old 2020-05-24, 09:11   Link #468
Guardian Enzo
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There's a lot of truth in that. Turns out Trump's approval rating (which is underwater right now as far as re-election goes) is closely tied to how often he's in the headlines. The more he's the lead story, the worse his approval rating gets. Biden honestly doesn't need to make this about him - in truth the less he's talked about the better his chances. And because Trump is so spectacularly vain, he'll be happy to play along.
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Old 2020-05-24, 11:26   Link #469
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
Turns out Trump's approval rating (which is underwater right now as far as re-election goes)
Meanwhile in reality Trump's approval rating is ~10% higher now than it was when he was elected.
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Old 2020-05-25, 09:20   Link #470
SeijiSensei
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I prefer to look at averages rather than a single poll. Of late, Gallup has been more pro-Trump than the polling "consensus."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/

Scroll down to the Gallup entry for May 1-13, which is 49 approve/48 disapprove. That's almost certainly an outlier when the average has Trump "underwater" by ten points.

I've used Gallup many times for historical analyses like this because the time series for presidential approval dates back to the 1940s. But their recent polling has been more suspect. They so missed the 2012 election they established a panel of outsiders to review their methods. They got better again, but of late, I'm concerned that they are having problems with their sampling methods. (With response rates as low as they are today, getting decent samples is harder and harder.)

The FiveThirtyEight data have some interesting features. Trump's approval ratings dropped precipitously in the summer of 2017 as the Administration expanded family separations. I also think it was the result of more marginal Trump supporters seeing what their guy was capable of. Eventually, though, we have come to accept Trump for what he is, and his approval rating slowly rose from the thirties to the forties. He had a brief dip during the government shutdown in the winter of 2018-2019, and a brief "rally-round-the-flag" effect early this year as the horrors of pandemic made themselves known. But his rally effect was minuscule and fleeting, and he's heading back down to the low forties.
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Old 2020-05-26, 16:01   Link #471
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
The FiveThirtyEight data have some interesting features. Trump's approval ratings dropped precipitously in the summer of 2017 as the Administration expanded family separations. I also think it was the result of more marginal Trump supporters seeing what their guy was capable of. Eventually, though, we have come to accept Trump for what he is, and his approval rating slowly rose from the thirties to the forties.
Or it rose because the propaganda stopped working on the public at large. The media can only lie for so long before things like using photos of kids in cages from the previous administration gets fact checked.

Quote:
He had a brief dip during the government shutdown in the winter of 2018-2019, and a brief "rally-round-the-flag" effect early this year as the horrors of pandemic made themselves known. But his rally effect was minuscule and fleeting, and he's heading back down to the low forties.
I find the constant assertions that Trump's approval is tumbling down curious when he has been trending upwards ever since he was exonerated by the Mueller investigation.
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Old 2020-05-28, 07:16   Link #472
SeijiSensei
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Rasmussen Reports has always been Trump's favorite pollster. In 2016 their polls ran about four points more Republican than the consensus, and throughout his term they've given him some of his best numbers. Today, though, even Ras has bad news for the President.

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...ussen-poll?amp

Quote:
The poll released Wednesday shows 42 percent of likely U.S. voters approve of Trump's job performance, while 57 percent disapprove.

The drop marks the lowest level for the president since Jan. 22, 2018, when Trump's approval rating was underwater, at 42 percent to 56 percent.
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Old 2020-05-28, 07:37   Link #473
kari-no-sugata II
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Generally not a good idea to single out individual polls. Even high quality pollsters will occasionally have outliers (not that Rasmussen is high quality).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/
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Old 2020-05-28, 08:05   Link #474
SeijiSensei
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II View Post
Generally not a good idea to single out individual polls. Even high quality pollsters will occasionally have outliers (not that Rasmussen is high quality).

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/
Did you even read this thread?

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
I prefer to look at averages rather than a single poll. Of late, Gallup has been more pro-Trump than the polling "consensus."

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...roval-ratings/
Scroll down this page, and you'll see that 538 adjusted the result from 42-57 to 38-58 after factoring in the pro-Trump tendency of Ras.
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Old 2020-05-28, 08:51   Link #475
kari-no-sugata II
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You seem to be trying to have your cake and eat it - preferring averages except when there's a nice juicy outlier.

(This is a somewhat pedantic discussion though...)
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Old 2020-05-28, 11:13   Link #476
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
Rasmussen Reports has always been Trump's favorite pollster. In 2016 their polls ran about four points more Republican than the consensus, and throughout his term they've given him some of his best numbers. Today, though, even Ras has bad news for the President.

https://thehill.com/homenews/adminis...ussen-poll?amp
Rasmussen is a daily tracker, Trump's approval today is 45%.

https://m.rasmussenreports.com/publi...ez_track_may28

You fell for cherrypicking lows.
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Old 2020-05-28, 14:52   Link #477
SeijiSensei
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You cherry-picked Gallup.

Yes, both these polls are outliers. Trump is still underwater at 538 by eleven points, and the gap between approve and disapprove is expanding again.
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Old 2020-05-28, 19:09   Link #478
kari-no-sugata II
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The more notable thing to me is how little change there is, even given the extreme situation. Gives strong support to the thesis that few people are going to change their minds in the coming months.

Somewhat topical article:
https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...-him-or-biden/

Quote:
According to exit polls, 18 percent of voters had an unfavorable view of both Trump and Clinton, but when they cast their ballots, they broke 47 percent to 30 percent in favor of Trump. The president’s advantage among these voters was pivotal, too. Trump carried these voters by between 21 and 37 percentage points in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, the three states that put him over the top in the Electoral College.

But now, in 2020, Trump may have lost his edge among the “haters” — that is, the voters who hold an unfavorable view of both presidential candidates. Two recent national surveys found that former Vice President Joe Biden has a big lead over Trump among those who have unfavorable views of them both. An April survey from NBC News/Wall Street Journal put Biden ahead of Trump 60 percent to 10 percent, and an early May survey from Morning Consult gave Biden a lead of 46 percent to 14 percent.

Meanwhile... economists have no clue what's going to happen on the economy in the coming months and years. The range of estimates is absolutely massive.
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Old 2020-05-29, 06:36   Link #479
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
You cherry-picked Gallup.
Excuse me? You are the one who selected Gallup, don't gaslight.

https://forums.animesuki.com/showthr...53#post6403853
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Old 2020-05-29, 07:37   Link #480
SeijiSensei
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I was referring to this:

Quote:
Originally Posted by ramlaen View Post
Meanwhile in reality Trump's approval rating is ~10% higher now than it was when he was elected.
The fact that I use Gallup for historical analyses is because their time series on Presidential job approval goes back to the 1940s. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/stat...l-job-approval
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