Brexit Vote

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

BREXIT NIGHTMARE: How SECOND transition period could drag exit out until at least 2023

Please no. Just get it over with.

If the EU gives it to them, what is stopping them from asking for a third, a fourth, a hundredth (read this post with this background music).

[Arabesque]

I’m not sure what more time is supposed to do to fix the problems that despite spending years so far, have not had a realistic solution proposed and will not have one because it is impossible (The Irish border) or that the people in charge on the British side are incompetent (generally everything that had been happening so far).

Then again, the fact more is being asked for indicates where things stand. We are exactly 11 months away from the due date, and the UK’s position remains as unclear as ever in regards to what it wants from the EU, or what the future is supposed to be like. Mess.

It’s been a year and nothing of note happened on the British side yet, and the EU is already fed up. Just hit the deep end and end this sorry episode already.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

the UK’s position remains as unclear as ever in regards to what it wants from the EU

Quite the opposite, the UK position is quite clear, they want ALL the advantages of being a EU member and none of the responsibilities. So by extending the deadline they hope to morph into a schrodinger country, which is in or out of the EU depending on the situation.

[RichardFromMarple]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

Quite the opposite, the UK position is quite clear, they want ALL the advantages of being a EU member and none of the responsibilities. So by extending the deadline they hope to morph into a schrodinger country, which is in or out of the EU depending on the situation.

That's basically BINO, which I could live with but the "all or nothing" brigade won't.

[Eisdrache]

BINO will just lead to endless confusion. In terms of a proper closure of this mess a hard brexit is necessary for the sake of both sides.

[RichardFromMarple]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

BINO will just lead to endless confusion. In terms of a proper closure of this mess a hard brexit is necessary for the sake of both sides.

Only if you think trashing the economy is a good idea.

[Eisdrache]

Because a trading partner that is in a constant limbo of regulations will be a much better scenario for the economy. Furthermore thinking long-term (not that either side is particularly interested in that) having a clean slate to build upon is an immense advantage. Of course whether Britain manages to construct something worthwhile is completely in the stars.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

Because a trading partner that is in a constant limbo of regulations will be a much better scenario for the economy.

Are you talking about Britain or the EU here? Who is the "trading partner" and whose economy do you think would face a "better scenario?"

Most observers of business and economics believe stability and predictability are important factors encouraging economic growth. Wouldn't a "constant limbo of regulations" discourage investment?

UK government statistics show that business investment grew at 2.0% year-on-year in 2017, but fell -0.2% in the most recent quarter. Gross fixed capital formation also grew, but much of that was powered by a nearly 20% increase in general government expenditures.

GFCF plunged in 2016 after the Brexit vote. It has now turned positive, but its growth rate is smaller than it was before the decision.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/economy/gross...ted-statistics

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

Furthermore thinking long-term (not that either side is particularly interested in that) having a clean slate to build upon is an immense advantage.

An advantage for the EU.

Having a clean slate for the UK is not going to be good for the short or long term. In the event of a hard Brexit, the UK will come crashing out into being on it's own without any preparations or ability to make trade deals fast enough to make for the loss of trade with the EU.

There is no chance for long term thinking here to happen in realistic terms because the UK has yet to make an actual decision as to what it is going to do long term. Yes, the "Britannia Shall Rise and Rule the Seas Once More^TM" mantra is all nice to hear, but it isn't an actual policy stance for anyone to base their future plans on.

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Most observers of business and economics believe stability and predictability are important factors encouraging economic growth. Wouldn't a "constant limbo of regulations" discourage investment?

The number of businesses which had already made their move from London to Amsterdam indicates that's to be true, or at least what most major and international businesses to believe to be the case.

Then again, current economic indicators might be slowing down for the UK post-vote, but we are still in the EU for another 11-10 months, so there isn't going to be much change until the due date comes closer and a final decision is reached.

---

There is some logic to the idea that everyone can keep the whole Brexit negotiations going on "forever" (basically the UK and the EU drag along these talks until everyone stops caring) if not for the fact that there is little to no point of doing so for the EU. On the UK side, it will be worse, since Brexit is a time and money sink the longer it goes on without a solution, and it is bad for the political landscape of the country (given how much it came to dominate the discourse at the expense of other important topics that need focus).

Realistically, there will need to be a decision made in 2019 that will push through an end to the current process. Talks of extending this matter will not happen I wager, not only because the EU will refuse to carry on this for longer (not when they might have a problem in Italy soon) but also because there will no longer be any hope of a solution appearing for some of the problems raised during the current process.

[Eisdrache]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Are you talking about Britain or the EU here? Who is the "trading partner" and whose economy do you think would face a "better scenario?"

Most observers of business and economics believe stability and predictability are important factors encouraging economic growth. Wouldn't a "constant limbo of regulations" discourage investment?

My apologies if it didn't show as intended but it was meant as sarcasm.

Originally Posted by Arabesque

An advantage for the EU.

Having a clean slate for the UK is not going to be good for the short or long term. In the event of a hard Brexit, the UK will come crashing out into being on it's own without any preparations or ability to make trade deals fast enough to make for the loss of trade with the EU.

It's not that the UK has no experience in negotiating nor do they have to forget everything they did while being part of the EU. A clean slate doesn't mean you can't use the remains as a building stone, it only means that they draw a definite line between them and the EU and admit that it exists. Furthermore their ties to other countries aren't just going to be cut one day to the next, regardless of being a member or not. There is quite enough time for new deals to be figured out.

Originally Posted by Arabesque

There is no chance for long term thinking here to happen in realistic terms because the UK has yet to make an actual decision as to what it is going to do long term. Yes, the "Britannia Shall Rise and Rule the Seas Once More^TM" mantra is all nice to hear, but it isn't an actual policy stance for anyone to base their future plans on.

That's only because they do everything in their power to extend the negotiations for an indefinite period of time. There cannot be anything constructive/realistic if you refuse to take actual steps towards a solution.

[James Rye]

Davis and Bojo resigned outta "principles", I bet they don't even know what that word means. Anyway, doesn't look like it gotta stop May. Not that the EU would accept this new proposal anyway, it is still a "want to have our cake and eat it" just with a "pretty please" at the end of it. Why the hell should the EU accept that kinda proposal when they are the ones paying for the UK's benefits? I bet they just want to act all "EU IS AT FAULT" once they refuse to follow that plan so that for the years after hard brexit they can work while still having a scapegoat aka the evil EU who wants to see us fail.
Urgh, so predictable...

[Newhope]

The EU can go f itself bunch of authoritarian arseholes sooner we get out the better, if they want trade barriors and tariffs just bang the same tariffs on incoming EU goods or buy from else where.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Newhope

The EU can go f itself bunch of authoritarian arseholes sooner we get out the better, if they want trade barriors and tariffs just bang the same tariffs on incoming EU goods or buy from else where.

so what happen, i thought you said Britain has the EU by the balls and the EU would cave and brexit people would get everything they want?

[Sheba]

What happened to "Britain shall rise and rule the waves again"?

[MeoTwister5]

Well your leaders are already abandoning ship and jumping into said waves...

[Ithekro]

Well the two Queen Elizabeth-class carriers should be in service in the early 2020s.

[MrTerrorist]

For all their talk about how Brexit will work, it becomes clear the UK government doesn't really know what it's doing. It might be best for the Government or the next administration to save face now and called it quits since this whole thing is making the UK a laughing stock. (The people who wanted Brexit like Farage and Boris can shove it since they talk big about it but never bother to help the process and called it quits early just like a child demanding mom to help them bake a cake but won't cook it once all the ingredients are there).

[James Rye]

The British Government begged the Germans and the EU Commission to move a conference on the EU accession of Balkan countries from Berlin to London. At the time people laughed at the thought of the UK hosting a conference about joining the EU while it was in the process of leaving. The UK argument was they needed this conference to shore up their international credentials in the eyes of the public at home and abroad. The German's and EU agreed.

So here they all were then, Monday 9th July 2018. Foreign Minsters from 40+ countries, dozen's of diplomats from other countries and media from all over Europe in attendance in London for the Balkan conference.

The British were hosts and thus the opening introductory remarks were to be given by the British Foreign Secretary.

And they waited.....

The French minister tweeted that the event host had gone missing.
The German minister tweeted the the event host hadn't turned up.
The Swedish minister tweeted, had the UK had forgotten they were hosting the event?

And on and on they tweeted. The TV camera's broadcast an empty podium. People in attendance started to gossip, had something happened. British civil servants shuffled around the back of the conference room, confusion on their faces.

Then somebody stood up, look around, laughed out loud and announced to everybody in attendance that the British Foreign Secretary hadn't bothered to turn up because he had just resigned from office.

The room laughed out loud. The British were a joke.

Lol. Did that really happen? Then again I bet Boris didn't cared about that at all if there was such a meeting.

[OH&S]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Lol. Did that really happen? Then again I bet Boris didn't cared about that at all if there was such a meeting.

What I would give to watch those events unfold live.

I'd almost feel sorry for BoJo if he wasn't such a complete tool.

[Newhope]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

so what happen, i thought you said Britain has the EU by the balls and the EU would cave and brexit people would get everything they want?

We should, we just have a incompetent leadership, even worse there's no alternative as the labour party are a bunch of far left lunatics.