[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Xapheron

I think it's due to some plot by Rosa, Genji and Shannon. They might have had an earlier agreement to leave George alone but because he decided to go when Rosa forced them out (not so sure about timeline, but I think it's correct), he had to be taken out since Shannon and Genji couldn't take care of them. When Genji wounded George, Shannon didn't want to sacrifice George, they fled with Gohda. Not sure why they got into the room or how Genji got in (got a master key from Rosa beforehand?) but there's my theory so far, imo sounds more possible than 3 half-dead people hiding away from 1 strong armed man.

Red texts said the five master keys were with Rosa all along until she gave it for Battler to open the door.

Let's say George did not leave the parlor for Shannon, then one sacrifice was missing even all other people were killed, of course Shannon could stab herself but then who was going to tell Rosa's group out? (Stabbed in the stomach and then knocked the parlor door and died insisting the murderer was Beatrice?)

And if Shannon fled with George even though she was accomplice all along. It means Genji stabbed George, Gohda and Shannon successfully at the end (if you said Shannon did not want George to be sacrifice and believe that Shannon could not stab the stake in Gohda's chest) The result was the same as mine that Genji killed all three in the end.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

This makes even less sense. If you think Gohda is that strong and George is such a good martial artist, then there's no way Genji could beat the two of them so easily without getting any wounds in return unless he's superman.

That's why I said Genji stabbed Gohda first and then Shannon and finally George. Gohda was stabbed in surprise, Shannon was stabbed out of shock(consistent with my theory that both Gohda and Shannon did not know Genji was one of the culprits), George was stabbed when he was distracted by Shannon's hit. It was a calculated sequences of hits by Genji to maximize the likelihood of success. Gohda was physically strong but lacked bravery, he probably just wanted to flee after witnessing three consecutive hits. And after Shannon was stabbed, what was the best response for George when he was hurt as well? Of course was to run away and check if he could help Shannon. Genji could get no hurts by adopting this strategy. (I emphasize could, for it is contingent rather than necessary. If he was wounded indeed, then he could probably say he escaped from Kanon's attack or whoever he could push the responsibility to)

I don't know if Genji as superman is impossible. But I don't think Shannon as superwoman is more possible. Or if Gohda was the killer then you have to wonder why George chose to lock the door when the natural response was to open the door and ask for Genji's help after George successfully stabbed Gohda to death. Or you inclined George to kill both people in the same room, for what reason then? Maybe you also think that just Gohda and Genji were teamed up and that's why George don't go out at all. But then both Gohda and Genji killing two were probably more easier and why waited until George locked Natsuhi's door and Gohda attacked alone?

It is not fair to attack my theory by criticising its improbability (I welcome criticism on consistency, rationality and conflicts with red texts), you have to provide alternative theories with a higher probability while being consistent and logical to discard my theory. In short, you should show the improbability of my theory COMPARED to other theories, rather than merely saying how my theory is improbable in the real world. Please kindly construct an alternative theory that involved more than just Genji while accounting for what happened in Natsuhi's room and servants' room at the same time. More productive than criticising my Genji-superman theory over and over, IMO)

[Ithekro]

With all the theories on who stabbed who, there still remains the mystery of why this wasn't considered a crime once the police investigated.

[Jan-Poo]

That's why I said Genji stabbed Gohda first and then Shannon and finally George. Gohda was stabbed in surprise, Shannon was stabbed out of shock(consistent with my theory that both Gohda and Shannon did not know Genji was one of the culprits), George was stabbed when he was distracted by Shannon's hit. It was a calculated sequences of hits by Genji to maximize the likelihood of success.

A real martial artist should have reacted at the time Genji struck Gohda, or even before.

Gohda was physically strong but lacked bravery, he probably just wanted to flee after witnessing three consecutive hits. And after Shannon was stabbed, what was the best response for George when he was hurt as well?

Are you kidding me? Showing your back to a killer when you have absolutely no chance to run faster? And with a stake inside the skull there was really no hope to save Shannon by locking yourself inside a room, unless George is a brain surgeon. The only logic choice in that situation was to at least get revenge by hurting the killer or making it clear it was him who did so. Creating a closed room scenario was certainly not smart.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

With all the theories on who stabbed who, there still remains the mystery of why this wasn't considered a crime once the police investigated.

Except in EP3, all people were considered dead, so police just closed the case because they can't solve it.

In EP3, it was a mystery. Something catastrophic happening in the end so police closed the case. Or Eva had successfully convinced the government not to charge her by providing something? Anyway, for police to convict Eva, there needed to be some definite evidence, therefore if Eva just eliminated all evidence pointing to her, then police would only ascribe it to be an accident while unable to charge anyone.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

A real martial artist should have reacted at the time Genji struck Gohda, or even before.

Are you kidding me? Showing your back to a killer when you have absolutely no chance to run faster?

To argue what a real martial artist can do goes beyond meaningful discussion.


According to my theory, what is in George's mind would be:

-to stay and battle Genji.

-or to run away and secure himself and Shannon in Natsuhi's room.

Relevant factors would be: chance of success of beating down Genji. Shannon's situation. Gohda's situation. Chance of successful escape.

If George evaluated that the chance of successfully beating down Genji was high, and he was hotheaded with vengence at that time, then I agree George would stay and battle. But even ff George chose to stay, then finally we might see him dying somewhere outside Natsuhi's room. Then Genji have to go to Rosa to borrow the master key and created a locked-room mystery, nothing much changed if George chose to stay from the perspective of Rosa and Genji. What we see may be contingent. My theory merely explains what would lead to our observed situation, while providing killer's plan B if things turned out differently. It is just a theory, if I think out or see a better one then I would abandon this one. Don't dig in too hard, please.

I would like to know your explanation, seeing you opposing mine so fiercely, you must have some ideas on your mind.

[rogerpepitone]

There's no information about what happened on/after Oct. 6 in Episode 2. So perhaps the police did rule it to be a crime.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Except in EP3, all people were considered dead, so police just closed the case because they can't solve it.

In EP3, it was a mystery. Something catastrophic happening in the end so police closed the case. Or Eva had successfully convinced the government not to charge her by providing something? Anyone, for police to convict Eva, there needed to be definite evidence, therefore if Eva just eliminated all evidence pointing to her, then police would only ascribe it to be an accident while unable to charge anyone.

There is enough evidence to claim that in the universe where the Ange we have seen lived, the police didn't officially recognize the Rokkenjima incident as a crime.

As for the rest we have no clue, however the witch's record of episode1 is consistent with the future shown in Ep4.

[LyricalAura]

There are a couple of issues with the murders in Natsuhi's room that it looks like everyone's ignoring.

1. Shannon has a gaping wound in her head, verified by Battler. She wasn't stabbed, she was shot. Battler didn't see a gun anywhere in the room, but the mirror behind Shannon was shattered and there's an enormous pool of blood in front of it, so it seems likely she was shot while she was in the room. Since the gun is missing, we can suppose that someone other than George or Gohda shot her, but then why weren't those two shot as well?

2. Natsuhi's room was completely ransacked. If everyone was just taking cover inside, why did they start ripping drawers out and throwing things all over the place? Was it ransacked earlier by someone else? What were they looking for?

3. The key to Natsuhi's room was supposedly in Natsuhi's pocket in the chapel, but it was found in George's pocket. That implies that at the very least, somebody actually went to the chapel and got it. In other words, it's likely that going into Natsuhi's room wasn't a split-second decision, but premeditated.

[Rexas]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

There are a couple of issues with the murders in Natsuhi's room that it looks like everyone's ignoring.

1. Shannon has a gaping wound in her head, verified by Battler. She wasn't stabbed, she was shot. Battler didn't see a gun anywhere in the room, but the mirror behind Shannon was shattered and there's an enormous pool of blood in front of it, so it seems likely she was shot while she was in the room. Since the gun is missing, we can suppose that someone other than George or Gohda shot her, but then why weren't those two shot as well?

2. Natsuhi's room was completely ransacked. If everyone was just taking cover inside, why did they start ripping drawers out and throwing things all over the place? Was it ransacked earlier by someone else? What were they looking for?

3. The key to Natsuhi's room was supposedly in Natsuhi's pocket in the chapel, but it was found in George's pocket. That implies that at the very least, somebody actually went to the chapel and got it. In other words, it's likely that going into Natsuhi's room wasn't a split-second decision, but premeditated.

Spoiler for my thoughts:

1. The hole in her head probably might be from a type of magnum or powerful gun, and the killer still had it and decided, for some crazy reason, to take on Ghoda and George bare handed. Maybe the killer only had one bullet and had to take them on bare handed?

2. Maybe they were looking for somthing to throw?, At the killer to keep them away, or the killer was planning to steal some valuables from the room while they were dead?

3.George could have been the culprit, but could have died on accident. Or maybe one of the two corpses, before they died, stuffed it in his pocket to make him seem suspicious? But, possibly, some weird accident could have happened, and they were all planning to fake an attack, and they ended up killing themselves. George being the culprit.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by ijriims

I would like to know your explanation, seeing you opposing mine so fiercely, you must have some ideas on your mind.

What I oppose is the common approach of:

As long as it doesn't contradict red text and explains it with human tricks it's all right.

It isn't right at all. It's a heartless approach that doesn't really show any desire to know the real truth.

You didn't even try to find a reason for all these murders. Rosa and Genji did it, the rest doesn't matter.


I am not trying to prove you are wrong. Maybe there's some truth in what you say, but the job is not done. There are many things that still need to be explained and your reconstruction of the events isn't convincing. Apart from what I said LyricalAura provided other reasons.

By showing you contradictions in your theory I hope to enforce you to revise or refine your theory. Why stop thinking? You can't be satisfied with just that.


As for me. Actually I have discussed this particular riddle in the game spoiler thread a few days ago. If I am allowed to use cheap tricks as explanations, there are many possibilities

If I say that George killed them all and then committed suicide (for example), how would you prove your theory is better than this?

[Xapheron]

Originally Posted by ijriims

Red texts said the five master keys were with Rosa all along until she gave it for Battler to open the door.

Let's say George did not leave the parlor for Shannon, then one sacrifice was missing even all other people were killed, of course Shannon could stab herself but then who was going to tell Rosa's group out? (Stabbed in the stomach and then knocked the parlor door and died insisting the murderer was Beatrice?)

And if Shannon fled with George even though she was accomplice all along. It means Genji stabbed George, Gohda and Shannon successfully at the end (if you said Shannon did not want George to be sacrifice and believe that Shannon could not stab the stake in Gohda's chest) The result was the same as mine that Genji killed all three in the end.

Red text says the keys were under her control, it's considered under her control if she hands them over to a culprit listening to her orders. If George didn't leave then they can fake Genji as a sacrifice. They are just using the epitaph/sacrifice to make it such that there's some crazy killer going around. And, yes, Genji did kill all in the end, he stabbed probably George; dying George fled with Shannon and Gohda, Genji used master key to finish them off.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Spoiler:

There are a couple of issues with the murders in Natsuhi's room that it looks like everyone's ignoring.

1. Shannon has a gaping wound in her head, verified by Battler. She wasn't stabbed, she was shot. Battler didn't see a gun anywhere in the room, but the mirror behind Shannon was shattered and there's an enormous pool of blood in front of it, so it seems likely she was shot while she was in the room. Since the gun is missing, we can suppose that someone other than George or Gohda shot her, but then why weren't those two shot as well?

2. Natsuhi's room was completely ransacked. If everyone was just taking cover inside, why did they start ripping drawers out and throwing things all over the place? Was it ransacked earlier by someone else? What were they looking for?

3. The key to Natsuhi's room was supposedly in Natsuhi's pocket in the chapel, but it was found in George's pocket. That implies that at the very least, somebody actually went to the chapel and got it. In other words, it's likely that going into Natsuhi's room wasn't a split-second decision, but premeditated.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler:

What I oppose is the common approach of:

As long as it doesn't contradict red text and explains it with human tricks it's all right.

It isn't right at all. It's a heartless approach that doesn't really show any desire to know the real truth.

You didn't even try to find a reason for all these murders. Rosa and Genji did it, the rest doesn't matter.


I am not trying to prove you are wrong. Maybe there's some truth in what you say, but the job is not done. There are many things that still need to be explained and your reconstruction of the events isn't convincing. Apart from what I said LyricalAura provided other reasons.

By showing you contradictions in your theory I hope to enforce you to revise or refine your theory. Why stop thinking? You can't be satisfied with just that.


As for me. Actually I have discussed this particular riddle in the game spoiler thread a few days ago. If I am allowed to use cheap tricks as explanations, there are many possibilities

If I say that George killed them all and then committed suicide (for example), how would you prove your theory is better than this?

In a normal detective story, what the readers need to do is to figure out the murder and the modus operandi. Motives usually do not concern much. But I guess it is different in Umineko.

(You mean I am working in a way like the "big and cruel detective we know". I agree. Let's get to what you want then. And where is your thread? I want to read.)

But first to LyricalAura's question:

Spoiler:

1.if I remember correctly, the stake was not stabbed inside Shannon's forehead when Battler discovered the bodies. It was cast aside somewhere on the floor. He commented that the wound was either caused by some shots or stabbing. George would have plugged out the stake. The pool of blood could be the result of putting out the stake and blood started spilling out.

2. The result of ransacking could be George looking for first-aid treatment. Dressings or saline or anything like that. Maybe there are some antiseptic or adhesive bandages but no useful tools for treating those big wounds. See my next response for some idea why it could be ransacked as well.

3. They might go to Natsuhi's room to get the mirror for real, if Gohda and Shannon did not really know what happen in the servant's room. Or George knew that Kinzo has long gone and they wanted to go to Natsuhi's room for investigation, to see if Natsuhi had jotted down anything in her diaries or whatever records (if she had one). (I wonder why they did not get into Krauss's room for this reason, so it may not be a convincing reason at all). Or it was just that George wanted to go back to the chapel to check something so he used Natsuhi's mirror as an excuse, getting the key was just to fulfill the excuse.

4. The mirror in the room, it puzzles me. Was it crushed by an hard object or broken as it was shot? I had to reread the EP2 to see how each body was positioned when they were discovered to give a better theory. A modified version of my theory is that Genji attacked all three inside Natsuhi's room while the three were searching for mirror or document. Genji successfully stabbed all three with stakes but were forced out of the room and George and Gohda successfully locked the door. The mirror was broken during the struggle. (Now Genji was a real superman for having no wound after the struggle with both Gohda and George. But we may never see the wound at all. Because if they were all struggle with bare hands, then there could be some bruises and torn muscles you could not see under the Genji's clothing, since if the only possible weapon was the stake stabbed into your body, then no sane person would try to plug it out and fight with it.)

George killed all two and suicide is possible if you say George was a culprit all along since he got hold of the stakes. But George cannot be the one killing Jessica and Kanon and mysteries for Nanjo and Kumasawa lingers, so you are including one more accomplice without providing a complete account for all other events. In this sense, your theory may be complete for Natsuhi's case but incomplete concerning the whole EP2. That's why I would say this theory is not as good as mine, for mine is more comprehensive and requires less culprits. Of course, we should also take motives into account and evaluate the possibility of each pair-up of accomplice and killing matches. For example, George kills Shannon or vice versa is less possible than Genji kills Shannon or vice versa.

For motives' part, my theory is that Rosa tries to get all the fortune for herself and Maria. Genji, as someone who has little personal desire and loyal to Kinzo, may just choose to help Rosa out of sympathy because she was the most little among the siblings and always bullied by her brothers and sister in the past (Genji probably took part in bringing up these siblings in the past). This is a truly hypothesis with little supports, though not completely outrageous IMHO. Anyway, most motives are just impervious to outsiders until the killers spoke out. Nevertheless, when accounting for the motive, the theory should be consistent with the characters' portrayed personalities and relationships. Of course, if you believe someone has been acting all along, then any motive is possible.

Originally Posted by Xapheron

Red text says the keys were under her control, it's considered under her control if she hands them over to a culprit listening to her orders.

I was referring to this red texts: 楼座がマスターキーを管理して以降、それら全ては一度たりとも彼女の手を離れていない！　夏妃の部屋を開錠 した時に戦人に貸し出した際を除いてね。
I think you were not just saying this one: マスターキー全ては楼座が管理した！

The key point is how you interpret this part "それら全ては一度たりとも彼女の手を離れていない", I will argue no further. But your theory works if your interpretation is correct.

[mizou]

I have played the four games but I still have questions
from Ep4, I understand that the game is not a reset but different worlds ( kakera ) and there are 2 beato : the master and the piece ( also a witch ) and are connected ( not like battler )
but I don't understand how can kanon and shanon saying this " we are going to be killed again this time " that's prove that they are conscious of the last games ..
so, if it's a reset of the same world .. it's more logical
but still confusing .. taskete
sorry for my english :s

[Echoman]

Originally Posted by mizou

I have played the four games but I still have questions
from Ep4, I understand that the game is not a reset but different worlds ( kakera ) and there are 2 beato : the master and the piece ( also a witch ) and are connected ( not like battler )
but I don't understand how can kanon and shanon saying this " we are going to be killed again this time " that's prove that they are conscious of the last games ..
so, if it's a reset of the same world .. it's more logical
but still confusing .. taskete
sorry for my english :s

meta-Battler and piece-battler are a little bit connected I think, though not the same way Beato and her piece are. (Basing this on the fact that you see Beato talking to her piece at one point, which Battler never does. Though I guess that's not really proof that he couldn't do so, considering Beato only does it once too.) For example, when meta-Battler said he would clear Kanon's name, and did so through his piece. Also, as soon as Battler gave up in game two, the piece did too, and started to accept the witch.

I was wondering about Kanon and Shanon too, actually...

[rogerpepitone]

If handing a key to an accomplice is still under her control, wouldn't giving Battler the key to open Natsuhi's room also be under her control?

[Xapheron]

Meta and piece Beato look likely to be different persons(/personalities?). After toasting Kinzo, Meta Beato says to piece Beato something along the lines off 'I'll take over now', can't exactly remember exactly. The links between meta- and piece- Battler aren't that clear but it seems that meta-Battler can somewhat control piece Battler directly like the last day's investigation in ep 4 and like Echoman mentioned. About the scene with Shannon and Kanon, you can't exactly trust that since that's somewhat of a magic scene, or a magic interpretation of what really happened.

[yggdrasil325]

About meta/piece Battler, I have always thought of it as something like a subconscious connection. That is, meta-Battler is piece-Battler's subconscious. Piece-Battler doesn't consciously know about the game or meta-Battler's ordeals, but feels the same emotions and general thoughts. Meta-Battler isn't exactly his subconscious mind; that's just a useful way of thinking of it.

I've been doing some thinking after reading the manga adaptation of EP 1... The question of who was the "Beatrice" that gave Maria the letter and umbrella is still up in the air, if I remember correctly:
One thing about Maria's "Beatrice" that bugs me is in EP 3, when EVA-Beatrice shows up in front of Maria and Rosa. Maria at first doesn't know who she is, but the second that EVA declares she's Beatrice, Maria's all like "sure, okay, you're Beatrice!" even though she doesn't look anything like the portrait. Seeing as how this is a magic scene, its reliability is questionable; if it is somewhat accurate, then that means two things:
1) Eva wasn't the "Beatrice" that Maria met the first time;
2) Maria's recognition of Beatrice is for some reason not dependent on visual similarity to the portrait.
That led me to the thought of post-hypnotic suggestions. In short, my theory is that Maria, at some point or another, was hypnotized by "Beatrice!" While in trance, Maria was conditioned to believe that she received the letter and umbrella from Beatrice (or Kinzo in EP 4)! In addition, she was conditioned to respond to a post-hypnotic trigger when someone claimed they were Beatrice, and to obey their orders, such as with the singing! Also, I use the Devil's Proof to exempt myself from explaining how Maria could be convinced to let herself be hypnotized.
...
This theory is approaching a small-bombs level of Battler-logic, though.

[hodil]

I think hypnotism is possible for maria's case, or simply just to coax her.
I mean come on, which kid goes around imagining a walking stuffed toy (watch preview for episode 19) and giving it a magical body.

I dont know, but it sounded more like a mental problem rather than a childhood imagination.

[Xapheron]

Originally Posted by rogerpepitone

If handing a key to an accomplice is still under her control, wouldn't giving Battler the key to open Natsuhi's room also be under her control?

I suppose so, she gave him the keys so that he would open the door under her orders.

Originally Posted by yggdrasil325

About meta/piece Battler, I have always thought of it as something like a subconscious connection. That is, meta-Battler is piece-Battler's subconscious. Piece-Battler doesn't consciously know about the game or meta-Battler's ordeals, but feels the same emotions and general thoughts. Meta-Battler isn't exactly his subconscious mind; that's just a useful way of thinking of it.

I've been doing some thinking after reading the manga adaptation of EP 1... The question of who was the "Beatrice" that gave Maria the letter and umbrella is still up in the air, if I remember correctly:
One thing about Maria's "Beatrice" that bugs me is in EP 3, when EVA-Beatrice shows up in front of Maria and Rosa. Maria at first doesn't know who she is, but the second that EVA declares she's Beatrice, Maria's all like "sure, okay, you're Beatrice!" even though she doesn't look anything like the portrait. Seeing as how this is a magic scene, its reliability is questionable; if it is somewhat accurate, then that means two things:
1) Eva wasn't the "Beatrice" that Maria met the first time;
2) Maria's recognition of Beatrice is for some reason not dependent on visual similarity to the portrait.
That led me to the thought of post-hypnotic suggestions. In short, my theory is that Maria, at some point or another, was hypnotized by "Beatrice!" While in trance, Maria was conditioned to believe that she received the letter and umbrella from Beatrice (or Kinzo in EP 4)! In addition, she was conditioned to respond to a post-hypnotic trigger when someone claimed they were Beatrice, and to obey their orders, such as with the singing! Also, I use the Devil's Proof to exempt myself from explaining how Maria could be convinced to let herself be hypnotized.
...
This theory is approaching a small-bombs level of Battler-logic, though.

Sounds good, only I don't think it's hypnosis. 'Beatrice' probably coaxed her into thinking it's some sort of game, after whoever 'Beatrice' is, she's been in correspondence with Maria for quite long I think, since every family conference they meet up(?). For discussion, using Devil's Proof is not that fun. Here we're actually trying to figure out what happened. In Battler's case, he's just proving that there exists non-magical means by which the murders were committed.

[luckyssol]

There are hints that 'Beatrice' is not just one person.

[Vega Lyra]

I don't really think Maria would need hypnotism; if people just have faith, that will be enough to believe something that's not true, is real. For a child, it would be very easy to say that "Beatrice does not have any form" as was said in EP1, I believe. So Maria could have been told that Beatrice can contact her via using someone's body, or the like. A child's imagination is much more accepting and more easily influenced than an adults, that much I can say.

Thanks for the hint, Ssol.