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Old 2013-10-03, 10:20   Link #1321
Ichuki
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Bittersweet results because I like Saten much as Akarin.
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Old 2013-10-03, 10:54   Link #1322
iamadooddood
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So this Akari won. But Mio lost. First time I got a pick wrong. So 7/8 and 3/8 now.

Here be picks and predictions of round 3:

Picks in italics, predictions in bold, underlined for picked and predicted group winners. As in, suppose Yuu upsets Mami in group A (wishful thinking). I'll pick and predict Yuu to upset Toki as well to win the group.

A: Mami/Yuu; Yui/Toki
B: Ayase/Kirame; Kuro/Miho
C: Shinka/Azusa; Kyouko/Rikka
D: Saki/Ryuuka; Tomoka/Arata
E: Kobato/Sakurako; Yoshino/Shizuno
F: Watashi/Sawa; Nodoka/Maho
G: Ruri(Kuroneko)/Tsukiko; Asuna/Akari
H: Kuroko/Sayaka; Eru/MisakaImouto

(Group C is a complicated case. If Shinka beats Azusa as expected, then I pick and predict her to go on to win the group final. However if Azusa upsets Shinka, I pick and predict the winner of Kyouko and Rikka to win.)

Tentative picks for block winners (from A to H):
Mami/Ayase/Shinka/Tomoka/Yoshino/Nodoka/Akari/Sayaka. In other words, 7 different shows with MadoMagi being the only show to have 2 girls out of the first 8 of the final 16. (And they're groups A and H. Sandwich time. NOM.)

I honestly don't know what I was thinking when I picked and predicted Rikka to upset Kyouko (or Kuroneko to beat Tsukiko)... still, I'm not going to change anything. Because if I do and my old predictions turn out to be true, I'm so going to have to curl up and hide in a corner.
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Last edited by iamadooddood; 2013-10-03 at 11:06.
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Old 2013-10-03, 10:58   Link #1323
uis
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shinhwa View Post
*Takes out gun* What?! D:<
That a joke muh shin. Don't take it seriously
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Old 2013-10-03, 11:30   Link #1324
hinakatbklyn
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Round 3 supports remaining:

(A) Yuigahama / (B) Kuro Matsumi / (C) Azuki Azusa > Nibutani > Kyouko / (D) Tomoka > Arata
(E) Kobato > Shizuno > Sakurako> Yoshino / (F) Maho > Sawa
(G) Ruri (Kuroneko) > Tsukiko > Akari / (H) Eru

Early prediction:
Mami vs. Yu Matsumi / Miho vs. Kuro Matsumi:

Even if Kuro isn't facing a PMMM, Mami would have no problem supporting Miho if it meant Aysae defeats Miho and ends up winning group B which would bring back Madoka. Yu and Kuro will support each other..... but can Kuro convince Ako to play it safe and continue to support the remaining active group members, or will they take the gamble that Miho could somehow win the group and bring both Kuro and Ako into repchange? Already saw one team try to save both and end up losing both (temporarily).

Mami vs. Yu is a straight 1-on-1 battle to reach the group finals. Whether the winner decides on playing for top 16 or tactical defeats is for another time.

Prediction: Leaning towards Yu/Kuro > Mami/Miho (I wouldn't be surprised if both matches were close)
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Last edited by hinakatbklyn; 2013-10-03 at 11:42.
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Old 2013-10-03, 12:38   Link #1325
Shinhwa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by uis View Post
That a joke muh shin. Don't take it seriously
I know she was shown as a rape target and a slut in doujinshi but she isn't in reality!!! DX
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Old 2013-10-03, 14:15   Link #1326
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It's amazing how little respect Mami gets on this thread. Absolutely amazing.

She's the 2011 J-SaiMoe Champion. She's the only girl so far to get over 500 votes in J-SaiMoe 2013. Her 3rd round opponent is a girl who failed to get over 300 votes in either of the first two rounds. You'd think this would be enough to have Mami considered the favorite in this match.
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Old 2013-10-03, 14:41   Link #1327
hinakatbklyn
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I get PMMM is in a different leage when compared with other previous champions, but I can think of a few other reasons Mami's opponent might have a chance:

(1) 1st round Yu Matsumi had both vote total and VD advantage against Mami in separate matches
(2) 2nd round, Mami combo voted with both Madoka and Homura. Mami got the most votes for the round by alot, yet Mami's VD over Yozora (526-374=152) was more than Yu's VD over Fate (269-121=148) by only 4 votes.
(3) Mami appears to be the stronger of the four challengers in the next two matches, she can lend support to Miho, but I'm not sure about support the other way.

OK, I could only think of three other reasons.
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Old 2013-10-03, 14:43   Link #1328
Ichuki
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
It's amazing how little respect Mami gets on this thread. Absolutely amazing.

She's the 2011 J-SaiMoe Champion. She's the only girl so far to get over 500 votes in J-SaiMoe 2013. Her 3rd round opponent is a girl who failed to get over 300 votes in either of the first two rounds. You'd think this would be enough to have Mami considered the favorite in this match.
To be honest I think Mami/Miborin would be a favourite in this match. I don't think VD and vote total matters, for example last year Cure Peace struggled against Ui in round 2 but destroyed Lotte easily.
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Old 2013-10-03, 14:53   Link #1329
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hinakatbklyn View Post
I get PMMM is in a different leage when compared with other previous champions, but I can think of a few other reasons Mami's opponent might have a chance:
I'm not saying that Mami can't possibly lose.

However, I think you're really overstating the impact of combo voting. There's been plenty of cases in this tournament where you had two girls from the same series go on the same day in separate matches, and one wins while the other loses.

Take away the combo voting arguments, and I don't see much reason to favor Mami's opponent over Mami. And I see a lot of reason to favor Mami in this match.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Ichuki View Post
I don't think VD and vote total matters, for example last year Cure Peace struggled against Ui in round 2 but destroyed Lotte easily.
I disagree. Subayai ran comprehensive stats some time ago on this thread showing how well the "highest vote total" method works as a predictive method. For 2009 and 2010, it worked very well, having a high prediction success rate. It hasn't worked quite as well since, but it's still well over 50% (i.e. being right far more often than it is wrong).

It's silly to completely ignore VD and vote totals. They do matter.

Besides, how do you determine strength if you ignore the only quantifiable measures for it (VD, vote totals, voe percentage, previous records)? Do you just go on gut instinct?
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Last edited by Triple_R; 2013-10-03 at 15:33. Reason: Adding in reply to Ichuki
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Old 2013-10-03, 16:43   Link #1330
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Nice performance by Saten here. She gets pretty close to beating Akari. Hopefully this is sue to Saten being stronger than I thought she was than Akari being weaker. MISAKA #10032 puts up a solid win. It's probably due to Saten being here but MISAKA #10032 looked a lot better than in Round 1.
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Old 2013-10-03, 17:52   Link #1331
Ichuki
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
I'm not saying that Mami can't possibly lose.

However, I think you're really overstating the impact of combo voting. There's been plenty of cases in this tournament where you had two girls from the same series go on the same day in separate matches, and one wins while the other loses.

Take away the combo voting arguments, and I don't see much reason to favor Mami's opponent over Mami. And I see a lot of reason to favor Mami in this match.




I disagree. Subayai ran comprehensive stats some time ago on this thread showing how well the "highest vote total" method works as a predictive method. For 2009 and 2010, it worked very well, having a high prediction success rate. It hasn't worked quite as well since, but it's still well over 50% (i.e. being right far more often than it is wrong).

It's silly to completely ignore VD and vote totals. They do matter.

Besides, how do you determine strength if you ignore the only quantifiable measures for it (VD, vote totals, voe percentage, previous records)? Do you just go on gut instinct?
I determine strength by the character's popularity/relevance and the series' popularity with the 2chers (I believe they are the majority when it comes to voting).
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Old 2013-10-03, 23:34   Link #1332
AP24
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So Round 2 is over.

By series, Saki is still the dominating series. There were 13 characters in Round 2 and 9 of them made to Round 3. The finals in Groups A, B and D could be between two Saki characters.

For Madoka Magica, all the 5 main girls made to Round 2 but the two most important characters in the series lost while the other 3 made to Round 3. Coincidentally, Mami is against a Saki character in Round 3 and she might again in the group final. The same goes with Kyouko against Chuunibyou characters and with Sayaka against Index/Railgun characters.

Index/Railgun and Yuru Yuri each had 7 characters in Round 2 but only 2 characters from each series made to Round 3. Interestingly the Index/Railgun characters in Round 3 are the ones who call Misaka “Onee-sama”. The Group H final could be between them but probably not.

The 4 Chuunibyou main girls were in Round 2 and Nibutani and Rikka are the only ones in Round 3 but unfortunately they are in the same group block. It’s possible the group C final match will be Mori Summer vs. Tyrant’s Eye.
-Ro-Kyu-Bu only had 3 characters in Round 2 and Tomoka and Maho made to Round 3. OreImo and Hentai Ouji each had only 2 characters in Round 2 and all of them made to Round 3. From OreImo the ones who are in Round 3 are two of Kirino’s best friends. From Hentai Ouji the ones who are in Round 3 are two main girls of the series.

Girls und Panzer and Haganai each had 4 characters in Round 2 but only one from each series made to Round 3. Sword Art Online and Tari Tari each had 2 characters in Round 2 but only one left in Round 3. Date A Live, Jinrui, Yahari Ore no Seishun and Hyouka each only had 1 character in Round 2 and they still made to Round 3.

Love Live was the series that did the worst in Round 2 since there were 7 Love Live characters in Round 2 but all of them lost. Little Busters had 4 characters in Round 2 and all of them lost. The rest only had 1 or 2 characters only in Round 2 and all of them lost.


By voice actress, Kana Hanazawa had the most number of characters in Round 2 and she still does in Round 3. There were 5 characters in Round 2 and 4 of them made to Round 3 and it will be interesting to see that half of all group block winners are characters voiced by Kana Hanazawa. Saori Hayami, Kaori Ishihara, Satomi Arai & Yui Ogura each had 2 characters in Round 2 and all of them made to round 3.

The worst ones were Azumi Asakura and Hisako Kanemoto which each had 4 characters in Round 2 but all of them lost. Rina Hidaka and Kanae Itou each had 3 characters in Round 2 but all of them also lost. Yuka Iguchi, Eri Kitamura and Nao Touyama each had 3 characters in Round 2 but only 1 each made to Round 3.

Last edited by AP24; 2013-10-04 at 00:07.
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Old 2013-10-04, 06:19   Link #1333
Team Rocket Elite
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Matches: A3-1 B3-2

Matsumi siblings vs Mami and Miho. The Puella Magi are really scary when they get serious. Homura and Madoka may have lost, but they did it in a way that made the Puella Magi look ridiculously good. Even so, Yuu is among the top Saki characters and thus top characters in the tournament. Like most of the Round 3 matches, this is going to be a tough battle but I think Mami will win. Also, the concept of a Mami vs Toki match is cool and I really want to see it. Hopefully some of the Saki fans will as well. Miho beat Ako but Kuro is another level above that. Miho can definitely pull another upset but I don't think it will happen.

Votes:
Tomoe Mami
Matsumi Kuro

Predictions:
Tomoe Mami
Matsumi Kuro
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Old 2013-10-04, 06:33   Link #1334
iamadooddood
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Anyone has the guts to call a tie for the imminent Mami-Toki match?
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Anime Saimoe Tournament 2013 is screwed up. Everyone's argument is invalid.
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Old 2013-10-04, 06:42   Link #1335
KanbeKotori
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My votes for today's match

<<松実宥@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
<<松実玄@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>

I know Yuu isn't going to win but I'll give her every ounce of support I can despite knowing my 1 pathetic vote isn't gonna make much of a difference :/
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Old 2013-10-04, 09:32   Link #1336
uis
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Why i feel want support Yuu today instead wanna see glorious match between Mami and Toki.
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Old 2013-10-04, 10:15   Link #1337
BloodyKitty
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Gonna support Yuu and Nishizumi-dono today
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Cannot prove that you are right.
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Old 2013-10-04, 10:24   Link #1338
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Pulling for Mamaries and angler fish dancer
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Old 2013-10-04, 10:50   Link #1339
Ichuki
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Picks- Mami and Miborin
Predictions- Mami and Miborin
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Old 2013-10-04, 11:11   Link #1340
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Here's hoping Mami keeps the good oppai times going! I also really want to see a Mami vs. Toki Block Final, as many people do of course.

For the other match, I have a slight preference for Kuro. It's slight because my main desire in Block B is for Ayase to win it all and give Madoka a 2nd chance.
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