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Old 2013-10-07, 08:21   Link #1441
iamadooddood
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
@BloodyKitty - Thanks for the informative answer. That's certainly clear and fair enough.



I agree. That was my theory at the time, and it still is.

I think that Homura vs. Madoka is a very rare match where there's no question that one girl would sacrifice herself for the sake of her opponent (and where that's so core a part of the anime both girls are from that it simply can't be ignored). If you're a fan of the self-sacrificing girl, do you vote for her because she's your girl, or do you vote for the other girl since that's what your girl would want you to do? It's pretty meta, of course, but I can see it playing on people's minds to the point that most Homura voters just couldn't bring themselves to vote against Madoka.
I'd have voted for whoever would've had a higher chance of winning. And that would be Homura. I mean, it's not like Madoka would've been forced to contract if she'd been knocked out of Saimoe. :X

Besides, that may be what Homura would have wanted, but I highly doubt Madoka would have wanted both to end up losing, too.

That said, whether that was true or not, it sure shook up the tournament some.
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Old 2013-10-07, 08:47   Link #1442
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
I'd have voted for whoever would've had a higher chance of winning. And that would be Homura.
Honestly, I'm not sure about that (i.e. Homura having a higher chance of winning). Keep in mind that Madoka also defeated somebody in the first round that managed over 200 votes - That being GuP's Yukari.

Series-split situation combined with repechage combined with strong third competitor (Ayase) may simply have made this a no-win scenario for the Madoka faction. It really was a perfect storm scenario. This is why I think the Madoka faction has taken too much criticism for what occurred here.
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Old 2013-10-07, 08:55   Link #1443
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Already seen Mami combo vote with a non-PMMM. Assuming that the Group A, and Group C finals are on the same day, I can see Mami comboing with Kyouko if she were to win her match against Rikka (that scenario would still keep Rikka in repchange anyway). The only one that would really have to worry is either Azuki or Nibutani if they don't win today's match. On the outside chance that Kyouko doesn't win, Mami has the option to help Rikka win the group and Kyouko stays anyway. (Too close a match to make an actual prediction right now)



Interesting enough..... Kyouko is my only support in the next two matches.
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Old 2013-10-07, 09:17   Link #1444
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There is a problem with the list of valid codes. Without the codes the organizers can not know which votes are valid and which ones fakes. So the results will be delayed until the issue is solved.
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Old 2013-10-07, 09:28   Link #1445
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hinakatbklyn View Post
Already seen Mami combo vote with a non-PMMM. Assuming that the Group A, and Group C finals are on the same day, I can see Mami comboing with Kyouko if she were to win her match against Rikka (that scenario would still keep Rikka in repchange anyway). The only one that would really have to worry is either Azuki or Nibutani if they don't win today's match. On the outside chance that Kyouko doesn't win, Mami has the option to help Rikka win the group and Kyouko stays anyway. (Too close a match to make an actual prediction right now)
Good point. And yes, according to the Big Board, Group A and Group C finals are on the same day. This does admittedly make me feel a bit better about Kyouko's chances to get into repechage, or win Block C outright.

I have to admit - In a roundabout way, you were right about the importance of combo scenarios. It's just that those scenarios can backfire on the combo side if one of their opponents is stronger than they are. But combo scenarios do seem to raise vote totals significantly.
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Old 2013-10-07, 09:41   Link #1446
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Results for Round 3 Day 3

C3-1
1st 591 Azusa Azuki @ Hentai Ouji To Warawanai Neko
2nd 380 Shinka Nibutani @ Chuunibyou Demo Koi Ga Shitai!

D3-2
1st 627 Tomoka Minato @ Ro-Kyu-Bu!
2nd 343 Arata Sagimori @ Saki
=============================================

Tomoka gets the highest vote percentage this year: 64.64%. Wow!

And Azusa also obtains a crushing victory over Mori Summer. This does not bode well for Rikka today.
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Old 2013-10-07, 09:43   Link #1447
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
Honestly, I'm not sure about that (i.e. Homura having a higher chance of winning). Keep in mind that Madoka also defeated somebody in the first round that managed over 200 votes - That being GuP's Yukari.

Series-split situation combined with repechage combined with strong third competitor (Ayase) may simply have made this a no-win scenario for the Madoka faction. It really was a perfect storm scenario. This is why I think the Madoka faction has taken too much criticism for what occurred here.
I mean Saimoe overall. Homura would've gotten sympathy votes from neutrals simply because of what happened in 2011.

EDIT: Shinka lost? That was unexpected. At least Tomoka won as expected. 10/14 and 8/14 now...
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Old 2013-10-07, 09:50   Link #1448
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- Seriously??? I knew Tomoka had a chance to win the match but even for her, that's overkill. But since Kuro Matsumi was unable to win her match Tomoka gets to take over as Hanazawa rep (and there's still two more waiting for their match). I doubt that was all her strength, but a win is a win. (and for one day..... a non-PMMM non-Saki breaks 600 votes "without a PMMM rep in either match")

- I don't know whether to consider Azuki's win awesome or not. I was certain the match would be closer than 200 votes with Nibutani involved. In any case Azuki was my higher preference between the two and she will at least continue on past group finals win or lose. (If the PMMM's thought Azuki would be a better choice for Kyouko to reach repchange or top 16, I could see a reason for some outside assistance.)
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Old 2013-10-07, 09:56   Link #1449
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Don't forget Tomoka was also riding the hope of Toshinou Kyouko getting into repechage

Let's see if Chuunibyou can recover after Shinka's loss, though MadoMagi is still looking very good this round.
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Old 2013-10-07, 09:59   Link #1450
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Repechage is definitely having a major effect.

Tomoka would have defeated Arata regardless, there's no question of that, but I'm inclined to think that Kyouko Toshino voters played a role in Tomoka's massive margin of victory here. I can't see Tomoka losing Block D now. It's hers.

Things are starting to look very bad for Saki. There's not a single block left where I consider them a clear favorite to win the block. I might give Nodoka a slightly better chance of winning her block than what I'd give to Watashi but it is very close. Mami vs. Toki is a toss-up at best for the Saki side, imo.


At the same time, Chuunibyou is also on the ropes after how badly Shinka lost. They desperately need Rikka to defeat Kyouko if they want to keep up any realistic hope of winning it all.
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:03   Link #1451
iamadooddood
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Originally Posted by Triple_R View Post
At the same time, Chuunibyou is also on the ropes after how badly Shinka lost. They desperately need Rikka to defeat Kyouko if they want to keep up any realistic hope of winning it all.
Let me guess: MadoMagi sniped Shinka to give Kyouko a better chance of taking block C?
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:09   Link #1452
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
Let me guess: MadoMagi sniped Shinka to give Kyouko a better chance of taking block C?
Actually, I'm starting to think some of these girls have been hiding their strength all along, and only started to unleash it in Round 3.

Also, I think Tomoka's massive victory over Arata shows how repechage is rendering sniping almost entirely pointless. If repechage lasts beyond this year, I think it's going to have drastic effects on J-SaiMoe. I could easily see it rendering sniping almost obsolete. I mean, what's the point of sniping a girl if she's just going to add her strength to whoever defeats her? Most snipes aren't purely out of hate, they're usually to give a girl you like a (hopefully) easier road to victory in later rounds. I suppose sniping someone in a Block Finals could still make sense, but even there it's a longshot gamble due again to repechage (i.e. if someone is strong enough to be a favorite in a Block finals, then there's a good chance they'd get back in through repechage anyway).
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:12   Link #1453
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
I mean Saimoe overall. Homura would've gotten sympathy votes from neutrals simply because of what happened in 2011.

EDIT: Shinka lost? That was unexpected. At least Tomoka won as expected. 10/14 and 8/14 now...
Nothing unexpected. Moe is triumph over popularity.
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:15   Link #1454
iamadooddood
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Actually, I'm starting to think some of these girls have been hiding their strength all along, and only started to unleash it in Round 3.

Also, I think Tomoka's massive victory over Arata shows how repechage is rendering sniping almost entirely pointless. If repechage lasts beyond this year, I think it's going to have drastic effects on J-SaiMoe. I could easily see it rendering sniping almost obsolete. I mean, what's the point of sniping a girl if she's just going to add her strength to whoever defeats her? Most snipes aren't purely out of hate, they're usually to give a girl you like a (hopefully) easier road to victory in later rounds. I suppose sniping someone in a Block Finals could still make sense, but even there it's a longshot gamble due again to repechage (i.e. if someone is strong enough to be a favorite in a Block finals, then there's a good chance they'd get back in through repechage anyway).
I think that's exactly the whole point of sniping. Repechage added a new dimension of complication to this tournament. If you can snipe the girl that defeated your actual target as well, then your target doesn't even have repechage to fall back on, so sniping is not entirely worthless here. Maybe the repechage was implemented because sniping was seen as unfair, but if you get sniped twice in a row like that maybe you just wouldn't be able to win anyway.

As to the block finals thing, if you have a good chance of getting back in, then so will many other sniped victims.

And sniping is still completely relevant in the final 16 anyway so...
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Last edited by iamadooddood; 2013-10-07 at 10:25. Reason: wth was I typing lol
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:24   Link #1455
Subayai
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I also think that Shinka was sniped to make things easier for Kyouko. But I am surprised that Shinka's votes went down from 461 in round 2 to 380 now. On round 2, Shinka's match was on the same day as Mami, Madoka and Homura. She could have been taken down then and there. And yet she wasn't. So basically there is a bunch of voters that helped her defeat Ika Musume and now simply abandoned her and voted Azusa.

Being defeated I understand, but I would have thought that she would at least get the same amount of votes as in round 2.
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:26   Link #1456
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
I think that's exactly the whole point of sniping. Repechage added a new dimension of complication to this tournament. If you can snipe the girl that defeated your actual target as well, then your target doesn't even have repechage to fall back on, so sniping is not entirely worthless here.
It would be best to do it early then. Like, say, your girl is on one side of the block, and the biggest threat is on the other side of the block. Snipe the biggest threat in Round 1, and then snipe whoever defeated her in Round 2. Then the girl's strength dies with her.

Round 3 would normally be too late for this. Although, on second thought, maybe Shinka was sniped, because Madoka Magica voters might be thinking that Chuunibyou voters would be split between Shinka and Rikka if Block C comes down to Kyouko vs. Azusa. Block C is getting more interesting, especially if Kyouko defeats Rikka.


Quote:
And sniping is still completely relevant in the final 16 anyway so...
True.
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:29   Link #1457
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I don't know why people calling Azusa weak or unexpected. She is strong in beginning and she don't have any challenging opponent that will show her true strength. The stat is 50-50 and is tough to call who winning the match. Nothing to snipe though because the different is great and normal voter see Azusa more moe than Shinka so they voting Azusa.

Stop paranoid thinking only Megucafag and Sakifag voting in saimoe. It is moefag that voting.
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:36   Link #1458
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I haven't watched Hentai Ouji To Warawanai Neko. I also haven't noticed it getting hyped much here on AS, or on other anime sites I frequent.

Is it that popular? Serious question.

Of course, it's not unheard of for a minor series to produce a strong girl or two (Eu in ISML immediately comes to mind), but it is pretty rare. The vast majority of strong girls tend to come from the most popular shows.
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:46   Link #1459
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I guess for Henneko, being a show with Kantoku's character designs is already a win in Saimoe, no matter how popular the show is. But really, I found Azusa's (and Tsukiko's) "moeness" to be very much the ideal of "moeness" 2chan would like so I'm not even surprised with them winning.
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Old 2013-10-07, 10:47   Link #1460
Coldlight
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Shinka lost? To that degree? One of the bigger surprises yet and a massive blow, if not already a death knell to Chuu2koi's chances of grabbing the crown this year. Or was their faction's chances just a delusion all along? That's what we'll find out next match in a battle of illusions between the delusional Tyrant's Eye and Rosso Fantasma. Lots of fakes in this match too, not to mention a brief screw up by the admins/organizers as mentioned by Subayai.

This Saimoe is proving to be a lot less predictable than the last two incarnations, and that's what makes things more exciting.
(and also dangerous to be complacent in)

I would agree that Azusa is pretty moe herself, though. I see her as being a lot more moe than Shinka too at least...

@Triple_R
I think it's popular enough. Pick it up! At the very least, it's a colorful show packed with moe (and some surprising drama) so from my vantage point I understand more easily how Azusa (and potentially, Tsukiko) can be so strong now. While I go to "investigate" Jintai and Watashi's source of strength, you go and "investigate" how the main HenNeko girls manage to reveal some hidden strengths.
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