[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Li Jianliang]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

So that clock should have been changed as well. But Natsuhi's door was locked so you'd have to suspect a servant to be involved.

It makes sense, because the guestroom on the first floor was unlocked as well, and someone must've unlocked Natsuhi's room to put the Autumn card there, too. It's always the servants, baaah. XD

Spoiler for Observations and theories concerning Hideyoshi's murder:

4. Murder of Hideyoshi in the first guestroom on the first floor of the mansion

This mystery feels like it's almost separate from the other three, since it took place after 1PM on the second day where Natsuhi 'witnessed' the entire thing. Assuming that Natsuhi wasn't hallucinating about the details she gives you, the player, then the circumstances were that Hideyoshi entered the guestroom after 1PM and soon noticed someone else in the room (other than Natsuhi hiding in the closet, who Hideyoshi never noticed). After a brief struggle, the culprit stabbed Hideyoshi in the back. Eva attempted to enter the room but is stopped by the chained door, so she left to grab other people, but by the time she returned with them and a chain-cutter, Hideyoshi was already dead on the bed.

Question: Was Hideyoshi the target?
Did the culprit want Hideyoshi dead and just tailed him when he split away from the rest of the group? Or did the culprit want to kill anyone separated from the group? Or was the culprit originally aiming for Natsuhi in the closet and had to switch targets when Hideyoshi entered the room, before the culprit could get to Natsuhi? I'm guessing, it seems more likely that Natsuhi was the intended target, since the culprit (assuming he or she was working in cahoots with "the man from 19 years ago") knew Natsuhi would be alone. Who knew Hideyoshi would want to go sob about George's death in solitude?

Question: How did the culprit hide in the room?
The guestroom is normally locked since it's rarely used. It was already unlocked when Natsuhi entered and hid herself in the closet. She heard Hideyoshi entering, too, but she did not hear anyone else entering, which suggests that the killer was already in the room before Natsuhi entered, also hidden somewhere in the room. However, by Erika's observations, it doesn't sound like there was much furniture in the room to hide in or behind, except for the closet.
One theory, the culprit was hiding under the bed or the like. If that was the case, then Erika would've noted the bed in her observation, and the only thing she deemed able to hide an entire person was the closet.
Another theory, the man-sized closet had two or three vertical compartments; the culprit hid in one and Natsuhi hid in another. However, given that the closet couldn't be locked from either side, it would be too much of a gamble for the culprit.
Another theory, the culprit was hiding in some non-blind spot place, such as behind the door, etc. This feels too absurd, since Hideyoshi would've noticed the person.

Question: So, if the culprit wasn't in the room to start with, how did the culprit get in?
To argue that the culprit entered the room after Natsuhi, or even after Hideyoshi, then I have to hypothesize that Natsuhi, with her frantic thinking and raging headache, could not hear the quietest of sounds. Perhaps the culprit was indeed able to sneak into the room after Natsuhi. After Hideyoshi, it would've been more difficult, because Hideyoshi put up the door chain (Natsuhi did not). Just think, if Natsuhi put up the door chain after herself, maybe Hideyoshi's murder could've been prevented? But I digress.
If the culprit entered right after Natsuhi, I doubt Hideyoshi would've overlooked another person in the room who wasn't in the closet. So let's say the culprit entered the room after Hideyoshi did. It couldn't have been through the window, because that was locked after the inside (Hideyoshi went to close the window shutters right after he entered), and without any other method of entry, it must've been through the door, which was chained. The chain definitely wasn't broken, because when Eva tried to open the door later, it held strong. My best theory here is that the culprit, knowing someone (Natsuhi) would be in the guestroom at that hour, switched out the chain for a slightly longer one beforehand, a chain long enough for someone to reach a hand in and undo the chain lock from the outside. Since Hideyoshi was distraught and chained the door while the door was fully closed, it was probably difficult for him to discern that the chain was a little longer than usual. Also, it's a guestroom, a room that he probably doesn't normally use since he's a family member and he doesn't live in the mansion to thoroughly memorize what every single room in the mansion is like. Hideyoshi was also sobbing face-down in the bed, thereby muffling his senses and making it possible for someone to unchain (and re-chain) the door and enter very quietly. When Eva later tried to enter the room and ran into the chain, she heard Hideyoshi making death moans and may have panicked so much that she also failed to recognize that the chain was longer than usual. Natsuhi heard Eva rapidly and repeatedly open and slam the door in a vain effort to break the chain, and it would be tough to discern the length of chain while it is in motion like that.

Question: Who's the culprit?
Hideyoshi yelled, "Who's there?!" which hints that the culprit is someone who he couldn't recognize. Since there weren't any strangers on the island, it suggests that the culprit was wearing a mask or disguise of some sort. Why would the culprit do that? Also, given that the culprit was able to overpower Hideyoshi and kill him, it is unlikely someone of weaker physique did it solo.
Another point, Natsuhi only heard Eva attempting to enter the room. What if that was all faked for people who happened to be within earshot of the room? Since Natsuhi never saw the events, it is possible that Eva was or was working with the culprit to kill Hideyoshi. However that goes against the central theme of 'love' in the game; why would Eva want to kill her dear husband?

Question: How did the culprit leave the room?
The same as method of entry, the culprit only could've left through the door. Natsuhi didn't hear anyone leaving and believed the culprit was still in the room after Hideyoshi's murder and Eva leaving to get other people. If the culprit only entered the room and never left, is it possible that the culprit hid in a place like behind the door and simply joined the group that entered later? People may have been too distracted by Hideyoshi's body and Eva's screaming and crying to notice. If Natsuhi heard wrong, then in the same way the culprit was able to soundlessly enter the room, the culprit could've quietly slipped out, re-chained the door from the outside, and joined the group of people in the drawing (reception) room. If the culprit was Eva or working with her, then it is possible that the culprit left during Eva's door-banging ruckus.

[Jan-Poo]

The knock incident did happen. But not at 24:00 but before that. The bell ring was faked by GM Lambda, an evidence was that the 24:00 bell ring on 5th Oct happened twice, once at the beginning of the fantasy court, once after Battler grasped the truth and was to revive in ???. So, it showed that the bell ring could not be trusted, according to Knox rules #8.

The letter deliverer was Nanjo, he went back to the mansion while Erika was playing cards with the cousins, it was the time around 23:20 I guess. He returned to the guest house by 24:00.

Read carefully for the part of dicovering the letter on the floor and you would find that it was said that Shannon and Kanon remembered themselves to come to the parlor a little bit after 23:00, not what was previously shown as after 23:47.

How do you Explain Natsuhi's clock showing 0:07? It couldn't have possibly took her 40 or so minutes to get to her room after Genji told her about the call.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

There's a snag with this motive. Battler was at the conference with the adults, and he also participated in the deception regarding the first twilight victims, so it seems like he's part of the conspiracy. But if the purpose of the conspiracy was to force Natsuhi and Krauss to reveal Kinzo's death, then why did Battler come to Natsuhi's defense in the study? The closed room Erika constructed should have been exactly what the conspirators wanted, and Natsuhi might have cracked if Battler hadn't jumped in.

Some possible reasons:

1) Battler agreed to go along with the plan, but once Erika and Eva started really tearing into Natsuhi, he got pissed off and started to defend her. He was willing to pressure her, but Battler won't let them go too far. I theorize that Battler knew Kinzo was dead and may have suspected what Natsuhi was doing, but understood her reasons for doing so and realized it wasn't worth breaking her for financial gain when he'd just found the gold and thus solved most everyone's financial problems. Eva dislikes Natsuhi and Erika is just an ass, so they refused to stop even though it wasn't necessary.

2) Battler's part in the conspiracy was to play the role of the doubter. The purpose of the First Twilight "murders" was not to pressure Natsuhi, but to pressure Erika. People were suspicious of her presence on the island and - not aware of the Knox rules or anything - thought she might be up to something. Thus they created a plan to frame Natsuhi, but Battler's role is to defend Natsuhi and find flaws in Erika's arguments to see if she'll make a mistake when she gets upset. It's even possible to argue Natsuhi and Krauss were in on it; for all we know, they admitted Kinzo's death (after all, the gold would solve their problems too, and Battler would be generous) and agreed to participate in a plan to test Erika and see if she was up to something. Of course, that makes the Ushiromiya family very good actors, but then again, we know Natsuhi is.

3) An unorthodox theory: Battler knows something everyone else doesn't, related to his lie to Erika about seeing Kinzo and his presentation of the corpse of Kinzo. Whatever the plan was, he subtly works against it to cut Natsuhi some slack, because something that he has learned makes him sympathetic. Perhaps only Battler realizes that there might be a real culprit, and is playing himself against Erika and the conspirators goading her into framing Natsuhi in order to smoke out who it really is (he doesn't know yet which of the people is the one, but he thinks he may be able to figure it out based on what they say and do with Natsuhi).

EDIT: Regarding Hideyoshi, his behavior is very strange. He talks out loud; why? I don't talk to myself if I'm alone. He also cries rather audibly. I think he's doing this because he knows that someone can hear him.

[Li Jianliang]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

But if the purpose of the conspiracy was to force Natsuhi and Krauss to reveal Kinzo's death, then why did Battler come to Natsuhi's defense in the study? The closed room Erika constructed should have been exactly what the conspirators wanted, and Natsuhi might have cracked if Battler hadn't jumped in.

Spoiler:

Top reason: the whole game is meant to relieve Bernkastel and Lambdadelta's boredom. If Natsuhi did get her checkmate, then Lambdadelta would've lost the game, and she doesn't want that. Battler isn't normally that brilliant either. Bernkastel manipulated him to come up with those brilliant deductions (as she was playing for him at this point in the game) to keep the game going.

Both 34 and Bernkastel will manipulate the game pieces however they can to try to top each other. Makes sense that Lambadelta saw Beatrice surrendering in EP3, so did some quick manipulation and forced Beatrice to declare she tricked Battler to sign the paper, and Bernkastel countered by bringing in Ange, and the game continued.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by ijriims

The knock incident did happen. But not at 24:00 but before that. The bell ring was faked by GM Lambda, an evidence was that the 24:00 bell ring on 5th Oct happened twice, once at the beginning of the fantasy court, once after Battler grasped the truth and was to revive in ???. So, it showed that the bell ring could not be trusted, according to Knox rules #8.

The letter deliverer was Nanjo, he went back to the mansion while Erika was playing cards with the cousins, it was the time around 23:20 I guess. He returned to the guest house by 24:00.

Read carefully for the part of dicovering the letter on the floor and you would find that it was said that Shannon and Kanon remembered themselves to come to the parlor a little bit after 23:00, not what was previously shown as after 23:47.

Originally Posted by Li Jianliang

After discussing the mystery with a friend, he came up with a feasible theory. The time in the dining room was only given by the dining room clock, which eerily tolled at 0AM right after the knocking. No other method of time-checking was used. What if the clock in the dinning room was off by a few minutes, a few minutes fast? That moment of 0AM the player sees was actually not 0AM but something like 11:58PM. In this case, it was possible for the culprit to knock, place the letter, quickly leave the mansion, and rejoin the guesthouse group before the real 0AM came about.

Red text violation in the theory that "The knock occured at a different time than what we were shown":

つまり、屋敷にいた人物全員が、ノック音の発生源とは成り得ない、という意味デス。……そしてこの“全員” とは、誰も把握していない、観測されていない人物であったとしても含みマス。
In short, this means it was impossible for any character within the mansion to be the source of a knocking SOUND. ....And 'any character' refers even to undiscovered people that no one has noticed.

Regardless of when the knock occured, if it really did occur it could not have occured from within the mansion.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Ssol

Red text violation in the theory that "The knock occured at a different time than what we were shown":

つまり、屋敷にいた人物全員が、ノック音の発生源とは成り得ない、という意味デス。……そしてこの“全員” とは、誰も把握していない、観測されていない人物であったとしても含みマス。
In short, this means it was impossible for any character within the mansion to be the source of a knocking SOUND. ....And 'any character' refers even to undiscovered people that no one has noticed.

Regardless of when the knock occured, if it really did occur it could not have occured from within the mansion.

What makes you say that? The "undiscovered people" thing seems to apply to the "at 24:00" red text. No one who was in the mansion at 24:00 was undiscovered and unnoticed, but if the knock didn't happen at 24:00, most of the red does not even apply.

[Li Jianliang]

Originally Posted by Ssol

Red text violation in the theory that "The knock occured at a different time than what we were shown":

つまり、屋敷にいた人物全員が、ノック音の発生源とは成り得ない、という意味デス。……そしてこの“全員” とは、誰も把握していない、観測されていない人物であったとしても含みマス。
In short, this means it was impossible for any character within the mansion to be the source of a knocking SOUND. ....And 'any character' refers even to undiscovered people that no one has noticed.

Regardless of when the knock occured, if it really did occur it could not have occured from within the mansion.

Lambdadelta repeatedly says the knock came right before 0AM, but she never leaves out '0AM', which I think is a big hint. No red text is ever given about "the clock is 100% accurate". All of Erika's observations are flawless, but she was not in the mansion to observe the clock tolling, therefore that part is solely up to the player's discretion as to if it was correct or not. Also, by saying that it didn't happen exactly there and then, it ruins the whole point of the mystery. Might as well start arguing the whole game is Ange's daydream.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by Li Jianliang

Spoiler:

Top reason: the whole game is meant to relieve Bernkastel and Lambdadelta's boredom. If Natsuhi did get her checkmate, then Lambdadelta would've lost the game, and she doesn't want that. Battler isn't normally that brilliant either. Bernkastel manipulated him to come up with those brilliant deductions (as she was playing for him at this point in the game) to keep the game going.

According to Dlanor, it's impossible to make a piece behave out of character. Regardless of what Bern or Lambda wanted to do at that point, it would be OOC for Battler to suddenly throw away one of his goals for no reason.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Li Jianliang

Lambdadelta repeatedly says the knock came right before 0AM, but she never leaves out '0AM', which I think is a big hint. No red text is ever given about "the clock is 100% accurate". All of Erika's observations are flawless, but she was not in the mansion to observe the clock tolling, therefore that part is solely up to the player's discretion as to if it was correct or not. Also, by saying that it didn't happen exactly there and then, it ruins the whole point of the mystery. Might as well start arguing the whole game is Ange's daydream.

There is no point to changing the time on the clock. Can you give just one clue where someone on the game board might have done this?
If the argument is that the clock just stopped telling time properly was there any clue that could indicate this?
If there is no clue then this solution is in violation of Knox Article 8

Sorry, it's not realistic.
I'm not saying I've come with anything better though.

[chronotrig]

We see the letter and hear the knock because everyone in the room at the time lied to Krauss and said that this happened. They all shared in the same lie, so it was possible for the "magic" to be shown during the game, even though there was no knock and the letter was written by Eva and friends.

You have to find loopholes in the red for this to work, but I think you can argue that Lambda only says "they never misheard a knock", not "there was a knock that couldn't have been misheard". If you think about it, the letter is ridiculously advantageous to the other siblings. It means that even if Kinzo goes missing, they still have evidence that he passed the headship on to Battler.

I don't have a full theory here though...

[Li Jianliang]

Originally Posted by Ssol

There is no point to changing the time on the clock. Can you give just one clue where someone on the game board might have done this?
If there is no clue then this solution is in violation of Knox Article 8

Sorry, it's not realistic.
I'm not saying I've come with anything better though.

It's the opposite that violates Rule 8. Rule 8 of Knox. Solving by clues not displayed is prohibited...!!. The clock is shown and Lambdadelta specifically states "0AM", so those two are most likely key to solving the mystery. If someone else did it elsewhere, then it must be shown or hinted to not violate Rule 8. The culprit might have manipulated clock, but indeed that doesn't appear to have any bearing on the story. This mystery is mainly one that Bernkastel and Lambdadelta used to humiliate Erika with, and Erika eventually gives up and doesn't come back to it.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

We see the letter and hear the knock because everyone in the room at the time lied to Krauss and said that this happened. They all shared in the same lie, so it was possible for the "magic" to be shown during the game, even though there was no knock and the letter was written by Eva and friends.

You have to find loopholes in the red for this to work, but I think you can argue that Lambda only says "they never misheard a knock", not "there was a knock that couldn't have been misheard". If you think about it, the letter is ridiculously advantageous to the other siblings. It means that even if Kinzo goes missing, they still have evidence that he passed the headship on to Battler.

I don't have a full theory here though...

The main problem is the ring. We know someone who isn't Kinzo has it. It doesn't appear that Krauss and Natsuhi have it. Therefore, someone has it, and it's probably the same person every time.

So even if everybody faked the letter, someone had to also provide Battler with the signet ring. It's entirely possible that person was in on it of course, but they'd basically have to admit that they had the ring. If it was Genji, of course perhaps that's expected. If it was, say, Shannon...

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Renall

The main problem is the ring. We know someone who isn't Kinzo has it. It doesn't appear that Krauss and Natsuhi have it. Therefore, someone has it, and it's probably the same person every time.

So even if everybody faked the letter, someone had to also provide Battler with the signet ring. It's entirely possible that person was in on it of course, but they'd basically have to admit that they had the ring. If it was Genji, of course perhaps that's expected. If it was, say, Shannon...

Exactly, and the ring really is a serious problem. What did Krauss and Natsuhi do with it? Did they even find it on Kinzo's body? If the question arcs are indeed solvable, we should be able to guess who has the ring even without information from EP5, so it might be useless to try and solve this part until there's a consistent theory for EP4.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Li Jianliang

It makes sense, because the guestroom on the first floor was unlocked as well, and someone must've unlocked Natsuhi's room to put the Autumn card there, too. It's always the servants, baaah. XD

I've noticed this only now. Let me say this:

At this point you are not only stating that someone changed the clock in the main all but that very same person also went as far as going into Natsuhi's room and change that clock as well. While the clock in the main hall is something everyone would hear and it is somehow justifiable, the clock in Natsuhi's room is something only Natsuhi could see. So it makes no sense to think the "culprit" would only change that.
Are you telling me that the culprit changed every single clock in the mansion? And how about wristwatches? Did those were changed as well?

I will say in blue that

Going that far and through all that hassle is practically impossible, and therefore the probability for this to have happened isn't higher than 1% unless a proper explanation is being given. But as far as I know, no one ever managed to give a proper explanation as to way someone would have tampered with the clocks.

Alternatively if your line of defense is that only the clock in the hall was changed or for some reasons runned late or earlier

Every person in the family meeting is an important figure in business world, it is a given that each one of them possess a wristwatch. It was stated that George had one, it is preposterous to think no one else had one. Given that fact it is definitely strange that no one noticed that there was something wrong with the clock in the main hall.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Exactly, and the ring really is a serious problem. What did Krauss and Natsuhi do with it? Did they even find it on Kinzo's body? If the question arcs are indeed solvable, we should be able to guess who has the ring even without information from EP5, so it might be useless to try and solve this part until there's a consistent theory for EP4.

Krauss was the one who suggested they take a break during the conference.

Rosa called Genji and said, "We're taking a break. Sorry, but could you make us something to drink? And maybe some biscuits would be nice too."
Genji responded, "Certainly, I will prepare it right away...."

I don't trust Rosa and Genji after episode 2.
Did they take advantage of the break in the conference?

After Genji and Krauss (why did Genji and Krauss return together?) returned from the break Genji noticed the ring and pointed out to Krauss. It's out of character for Genji point something out like that. I think it's clear he wanted Krauss to notice the ring immediately. Well, if Genji didn't point it out Krauss probably would have eventually noticed or one of the other adults would have directed Krauss's attention that way. However...

Someone from the conference may have ordered "preperations" to be made regarding the envelope and the ring during the break. It wasn't Genji who left the envelope but he could have been involved with contacting the one who actually did.

[Jan-Poo]

I definitely disagree with one thing you said.

It isn't out of character for Genji to notice the ring. In Ep1 is the one who notices Kinzo's ring is missing from his corpse and he points that out.

I think that whatever happened to the ring after Kinzo's death Genji is involved with that.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I definitely disagree with one thing you said.

It isn't out of character for Genji to notice the ring. In Ep1 is the one who notices Kinzo's ring is missing from his corpse and he points that out.

I think that whatever happened to the ring after Kinzo's death Genji is involved with that.

What I meant was Genji is normally reserved and doesn't speak unless someone speaks directly to him.

[Marion]

Well he was just surprised because he comes in and suddenly Battler has the ring. It's not like he never speaks unless someone tells him too

[Li Jianliang]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

At this point you are not only stating that someone changed the clock in the main all but that very same person also went as far as going into Natsuhi's room and change that clock as well. While the clock in the main hall is something everyone would hear and it is somehow justifiable, the clock in Natsuhi's room is something only Natsuhi could see. So it makes no sense to think the "culprit" would only change that.
Are you telling me that the culprit changed every single clock in the mansion? And how about wristwatches? Did those were changed as well?

I will say in blue that

Going that far and through all that hassle is practically impossible, and therefore the probability for this to have happened isn't higher than 1% unless a proper explanation is being given. But as far as I know, no one ever managed to give a proper explanation as to way someone would have tampered with the clocks.

Alternatively if your line of defense is that only the clock in the hall was changed or for some reasons runned late or earlier

Every person in the family meeting is an important figure in business world, it is a given that each one of them possess a wristwatch. It was stated that George had one, it is preposterous to think no one else had one. Given that fact it is definitely strange that no one noticed that there was something wrong with the clock in the main hall.

I want to say the clock being off is just a minor incidence that has no significant bearing on the meat of the game, so it wouldn't matter if someone else checked the clock against watches or other timekeepers. The clock just happened to be off; maybe one of the overarching witches did it to humiliate Erika with a seemingly chronologically impossible situation. If Erik happened to be in the room, then I wager this mystery wouldn't have been so, because Erika easily could've checked the time (the detective cannot miss anything important and the detective's words must not be false) with some crazy method. Also, the people in the dining room just discovered enough gold to last 10 lifetimes and trying to get on each other's good side, I doubt anyone would be fastidious about "hey the clock's a minute fast!!" George wasn't in the room. It was a pendulum clock that chimed, I believe, which usually has a hutch over the clock face that prevents people from touching it and doing a quick manual fix job on the spot.

[Kamar]

I'd really like a confirmation that the original Japanese said in unambiguous terms that the knock actually happened, because everything I saw in the English translation was either vague or seemed worded to intentionally mislead you into thinking a knock that didn't happen did happen.

People keep saying "it definitely said it happened" but I thought I was paying pretty close attention to the wording and if there was something that unambiguous IN RED I totally missed it. (Admittedly I was up ~6 hours past when I'd normally go to sleep, so yeah).

It just seems REALLY suspicious to me that LD was so quick to jump in with something as oddly worded as "No one misheard a knock" (or whatever the exact wording was) after being so stingy with it.