[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Cao Ni Ma]

Well, as Ive stated before, the cover up scenario is plausible given some of the circumstantial evidence surrounding the government and its actions regarding Rokkenjima. The scandal isn't that there where left over munitions. The scandal is that they willingly sold an island full of un-detonated explosives which later caused the deaths of most of the areas most influential family. Not only that, if they're stone walling was caused by this issue it means they where complacent in the event. Imagine if Krauss had his way, converted the island into a beach resort and the thing blew up right there in peak travel season?

Anyways, its just one of the possibilities, I seriously doubt that we should just go with any theory that involves "Inept Investigators" and the ones you outlined are pretty much how I feel it ought have gone trough.

[Renall]

If Krauss had, say, already obtained his permit to develop the island into a resort or something, the fact that the island fucking blew up and killed a dozen people would certainly look scandalous to anybody who approved building a resort on an explosion-prone island.

So if I were the government I certainly wouldn't want that going around. Only thing is, it's not like an island that explodes accidentally for no clear reason is any more appealing-sounding or less bureaucrat-boneheaded-to-approve than one that exploded on purpose.

[AuraTwilight]

Government cover-up. The instant they realized undetonated WW2 munitions had been left lying around, they immediately shut down the investigation so nobody would hear about it. Also possible, if that was actually something that would've been scandalous in the 80s.

This is the one I like to go with because it's funnier and works into my troll theories.

So if I were the government I certainly wouldn't want that going around. Only thing is, it's not like an island that explodes accidentally for no clear reason is any more appealing-sounding or less bureaucrat-boneheaded-to-approve than one that exploded on purpose.

Hell, the explosion being done by a person is actually better for the resort-approver. You could always say some nutjob brought a shitton of explosives onto the island with them.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Oh certainly. The TIPS alone are hardly conclusive. What I'm currently proposing is based on more hints than just that one line, though. There's more thematic evidence, such as how Beatrice actively bestows the powers upon Eva-Beatrice in Banquet, and of course the fact that Eva-Beatrice actually replaces Beato in her portrait, and has an independent, active presence in the meta-world.

Basically, Eva-Beatrice strikes me more as a representation of Eva's projected will itself, not merely her incidental influence.

I'm with you regarding the fact that Eva-Beatrice is more than projected potential influence and that she actually had influence on the events of the island from a meta-perspective. But in my opinion we cannot limit her to Eva alone. Yes, there is that scene at the end of Banquet where her "outward appearance" is broken and she is revealed to contain Eva (very much implied by the manga), but I'd say that there is more to her or more specifically to the black witch who she also impersonates.

The black witch who is the personification of all vile and destructive emotions has different representations during the story. At first we only know about her through Marias portrayal of her mother when she looses her temper, then we have Eva who looses herself over the discovery of the money and then there is Sumadera Kasumi who is controlled by her during Alliance. But there is another instance that really stood out for me:
After Rosa and Maria are discovered murdered in the rosegarden in Banquet, Eva struggles with Eva-Beatrice and tells her that she should "obediently return back into her heart". To that Eva-Beatrice replies:
"Nooo! There seems to be some misunderstanding between us. Yes, I am no longer you. You are Ushiromiya Eva. I am the Golden Witch Beatrice. Therefore I have no obligation to return to your heart. Might this be because I am a butterfly which has hatched from the pupa that is you?!"
Why is she insisting that Eva has no longer any power over her? I find this very interesting when considering the scene where Eva-Beatrice starts controlling Kyrie in order to make her go to the mansion. In the manga this is depicted as her becoming a marionette under the control of Eva-Beatrice/the black witch, but what does that actually imply?

Eva-Beatrice gained her outward appearance because with the possession of the family ring and her survival Eva would have officially become Beatrice, but the question remains wether she is the only Beatrice or just the only proven Beatrice/culpable person among those beside Yasu and Ange.

Originally Posted by Renall

So if I were the government I certainly wouldn't want that going around. Only thing is, it's not like an island that explodes accidentally for no clear reason is any more appealing-sounding or less bureaucrat-boneheaded-to-approve than one that exploded on purpose.

Another reason to cover it up, isn't it.
Rokkenjima was apparently declared as an area with prohibition of unauthorized entry right after the incident. I think it was Ôtsuki who also lamented that he couldn't go to the "witch's island" himself. So the actual circumstances and the amount of damage is unknown to the public. An explosion in a private area is scary, but certainly not unlikely in a country that a) was as severly bombed during WW2 as Japan (see Great Tokyo Air Raid), b) is so prone to earthquakes and c) often has problems with subpar equipment for gas-pipes.

Revealing that the government knew about the risk of Rokkenjima could produce huge problems. Considering that in the 1980's Japan Bashing became a huge topic in the economic war between the U.S. and Japan, America could have put huge pressure on Japan concerning a topic like this, especially when the treaty issued right after WW2 demanded the complete disarmament of Japan and that it would renounce war forever.

[Renall]

The only real issue I have with the whole cover-up thing is no matter what you do, you have to face the fact that in R-Prime the notion that there was an explosion is inescapable. It's not like you can handwave it by saying the family was killed by a gas leak and that all the houses had to be bulldozed due to faulty something something or other. There's a crater there, and that at least is something that will be common knowledge.

Given this, the options for a cover-up are somewhat limited. You have to justify this explosion somehow. You have to to to plausibly explain (or else risk refusing to explain) why Eva survived it. The less you say, the more questions will remain for the Witch Hunters. The more you say, the more scandalous the event becomes to the government.

We know very little about the response, other than the fact that the island was cordoned off and people were not supposed to go there. From Ange's trip in ep4 it would at least appear that there is nothing actually harmful on the island, so the prohibition on travel seems fairly hollow. Why, then, would the government say it? Was it part of the cover-up to pronounce the cause of the explosion something that would remain a danger?

Really, only two things I can think of would be a persistent danger: Volcanic activity, or unexploded munitions. The former seems like it would draw cries of shenanigans from Witch Hunters. The latter requires admitting that there were explosives there in the first place and that some might remain dangerous, but is at least a believable explanation.

If the government just said "It's dangerous" without any form of explanation, it wouldn't just be the Witch Hunters who'd be wondering about a conspiracy... although if Eva was roasted as thoroughly by the media and public as she seems to have been, that might actually have been the case.

[rogerpepitone]

A large amount of military explosions falling into civilian hands is a serious problem involving high-ranking officials. It's the sort of thing that would prompt a coverup.

A natural explosion on an area that got a permit probably just would have one low-ranking official. Unless he had very close, high-ranking officials, he wouldn't be worth protecting.

[battle22]

i have a question. in ep5 when battler ask's the number of the people on rokkenjima.
lambda say's In other words, the number of people in this parlor now is equal to the total number of people on this island. . it mean's that with erika there's 17 people on the island right? but kannon is there too. how? why does battler think it's 18? and this is teh first time when we are shown a metascene about battle metting shannon and kannon togetehr right? sorry if i didn't make any sense

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by battle22

i have a question. in ep5 when battler ask's the number of the people on rokkenjima.
lambda say's In other words, the number of people in this parlor now is equal to the total number of people on this island. . it mean's that with erika there's 17 people on the island right? but kannon is there too. how? why does battler think it's 18? and this is teh first time when we are shown a metascene about battle metting shannon and kannon togetehr right? sorry if i didn't make any sense

I think the standard explanation is that Kanon was standing behind someone, so that Erika didn't actually observe him. His presence was filled into the narrative by assumption. I don't really like this explanation though.

Another possibility is that the "17 people including Erika" red didn't apply to EP5. That game board wasn't created by Beatrice and didn't respect her truth, so it ended up containing a fundamental error: a person who normally doesn't have a separate body was given one by mistake, and Erika observed that body. But the number of non-Erika "people" was the same as before.

[battle22]

so kannon is created? is'nt that a logic error?

[LyricalAura]

As long as a game doesn't contradict itself, there's no problem with it contradicting other games (this happens a lot with other red truth). Under that explanation, the author just started with a different premise.

[LyricalAura]

Oho, I just thought of a real bastard thing to do to Erika.

If the detective piece is required to have all clues presented to her, what do you suppose would happen to clues that only exist in the fantasy world? Maybe her obviously unbalanced piece would conveniently hallucinate them. Now suppose nobody went out of their way to make that clear to Meta-Erika?

[battle22]

hmmm. does ryukushi realy have answer's for all of this? or he's just trolling us?

[AuraTwilight]

It could go either way. He claims he has an answer, but doesn't want to say.

I don't see any problems with either explanation LyricalAura provided. My personal way of seeing it is that EP5 is contained by all sorts of errors keeping it from complying with Beato's game (perhaps written by a novice Witch Hunter), and Toya edited it to be workable because he liked a lot of the concepts. So stuff like "Kanon is behind Gohda" is a handwave to explain plotholes in the original text.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by haguruma

The black witch who is the personification of all vile and destructive emotions has different representations during the story. At first we only know about her through Marias portrayal of her mother when she loses her temper, then we have Eva who looses herself over the discovery of the money and then there is Sumadera Kasumi who is controlled by her during Alliance. But there is another instance that really stood out for me:
After Rosa and Maria are discovered murdered in the rosegarden in Banquet, Eva struggles with Eva-Beatrice and tells her that she should "obediently return back into her heart". To that Eva-Beatrice replies:
"Nooo! There seems to be some misunderstanding between us. Yes, I am no longer you. You are Ushiromiya Eva. I am the Golden Witch Beatrice. Therefore I have no obligation to return to your heart. Might this be because I am a butterfly which has hatched from the pupa that is you?!"
Why is she insisting that Eva has no longer any power over her? I find this very interesting when considering the scene where Eva-Beatrice starts controlling Kyrie in order to make her go to the mansion. In the manga this is depicted as her becoming a marionette under the control of Eva-Beatrice/the black witch, but what does that actually imply?

Eva-Beatrice can do whatever she wants as the Territory Lord, including control the pieces' actions. However, it is quite notable that Eva-Beatrice, even if independent from Eva, came from Eva. Looking at it from the theory that Eva wrote or co-wrote Banquet, it's easy to see how Eva-Beatrice (Eva's writing persona) might metaphorically escape from "normal" Eva's control, and then go on to vilify Kyrie. Basically, as a writer, Eva's negative emotions for Kyrie meant that she couldn't resist letting the "black witch" inside her make Kyrie look bad.

Originally Posted by haguruma

Eva-Beatrice gained her outward appearance because with the possession of the family ring and her survival Eva would have officially become Beatrice, but the question remains wether she is the only Beatrice or just the only proven Beatrice/culpable person among those beside Yasu and Ange.

There's no question that in episodes 3 and 4 Eva-Beatrice metaphorically "possesses" other people. However, in episode 8 it's very clear that she represents Eva, and not just her evil side.

Originally Posted by haguruma

Rokkenjima was apparently declared as an area with prohibition of unauthorized entry right after the incident. I think it was Ôtsuki who also lamented that he couldn't go to the "witch's island" himself. So the actual circumstances and the amount of damage is unknown to the public. An explosion in a private area is scary, but certainly not unlikely in a country that a) was as severly bombed during WW2 as Japan (see Great Tokyo Air Raid), b) is so prone to earthquakes and c) often has problems with subpar equipment for gas-pipes.

Was it ever brought up how the government took legal control of the property? Was Eva compensated? Could the government just take it without compensation?

In any case, the travel restriction is not enforced very strongly. Ange and Kawabata just up and went without anyone stopping them.

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

As long as a game doesn't contradict itself, there's no problem with it contradicting other games (this happens a lot with other red truth). Under that explanation, the author just started with a different premise.

But it was explicitly said in red that this was not the case:

Furudo Erika is not the culprit.
Furudo Erika had no influence on any of Beato's games before now.
She does not exist in the worlds before this one, nor does she influence them.
Furudo Erika only increases it by one person.
Besides her, the number of people on this island is exactly the same as it was in the previous games.
In other words, the number of people in this parlor now is equal to the total number of people on this island.

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Was it ever brought up how the government took legal control of the property? Was Eva compensated? Could the government just take it without compensation?

In any case, the travel restriction is not enforced very strongly. Ange and Kawabata just up and went without anyone stopping them.

Well of course it's not enforced, they'd have to post policemen on the island or something to do that. I think they just expect that people will more or less buy the explanation and obey the prohibition. If there wasn't any evidence left over anyway, I suppose no one would see any harm.

Except... I mean there totally is still relevant evidence in the form of Kuwadorian. Not for the event, perhaps, but wouldn't Witch Hunters be enamored with the secret mansion of the occult freak Kinzo? You'd think the "secret" dock would've become some kind of pilgrimage site. And if the house is abandoned, it actually could potentially be pretty dangerous to go there.

Although it wouldn't surprise me if local boat owners don't generally want to go to Rokkenjima. But if they were paid enough...

[Cao Ni Ma]

Well the government wanted the island back at one point, its mentioned a few times in the story. I dont know if Japan has some form eminent domain clauses or something but it would look pretty shitty of them to go and sell and island and then just confiscate it later.

About the fifth game. Did it ever go into detail about the love relationships between Shannon/George, Kanon/Jessica? It could be that in this world there is no love crisis because Shannon and Kanon are two different people. The crisis not being there now means that a new motive for the crimes must exist, which leads to the manifestation of "TMF18YA" to fill the role of the culprit.

Anyways, there are more scenes in the story where Erika is present with both Shannon and Kanon just hanging around the crime scene. This later becomes one of the ways that she could entrap Natsuhi, because she could confirm their alibis.

[AuraTwilight]

Eva-Beatrice can do whatever she wants as the Territory Lord

Eva-Beatrice has never been the Territory Lord. She's never even been a Gamemaster.

There's no question that in episodes 3 and 4 Eva-Beatrice metaphorically "possesses" other people. However, in episode 8 it's very clear that she represents Eva, and not just her evil side.

Eva-Beatrice does not feature in EP4, it was the Black Witch, using Eva's face because of Ange's resentment.

However, regardless, Eva-Beatrice's symbolism changes in every episode. You could say all previous meanings were falsehoods that were part of the "lid on the catbox", but I still find it pretty fascinating.

About the fifth game. Did it ever go into detail about the love relationships between Shannon/George, Kanon/Jessica?

It's never brought up; probably because the author is loveless.

The crisis not being there now means that a new motive for the crimes must exist, which leads to the manifestation of "TMF18YA" to fill the role of the culprit.

Honestly, the crisis has nothing to do with it. Battler and Erika solved the Epitaph, so Beatrice wouldn't of done anything anyway. The Stakes of Purgatory do comment, however, that the magic circles are done crudely and sloppily in comparison to Beatrice's work, implying it's a totally different culprit.

Anyways, there are more scenes in the story where Erika is present with both Shannon and Kanon just hanging around the crime scene. This later becomes one of the ways that she could entrap Natsuhi, because she could confirm their alibis.

At no point does Erika ever acknowledge both of them at the same time.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Basically, as a writer, Eva's negative emotions for Kyrie meant that she couldn't resist letting the "black witch" inside her make Kyrie look bad.

The question is though wether it was actually Eva's hatred for Kyrie which turned the blame on Kyrie during that scene. My recent theory is that while EP1 and 2, authored by Yasu, were actually meant to incriminate herself, EP3 and 4 were actually an attempt to supress the truth that the actual culprit was Kyrie with potential help from Rudolph either incriminating Eva or Kinzô/Beatrice.

Looking at EP3 we have no substantial proof of Eva's guilt, just circumstancial evidence that points to a probable culpability. For example that she was unsupervised (Hideyoshi does not count because of a danger of being an acomplicee) during all the murders, yet every murder could just as well have been performed by somebody else.
When Rosa was reported missing Rudolph insisted on going into the garden alone and only called Nanjô later to help him carry the corpses inside.
Hideyoshi was not killed by Eva and is definitely depicted as being shot by the gun carried by Kyrie, who was described as having succumbed to bloodloss after a non-fatal wound. The anime even displays Kyrie's and Rudolphs corpses moved after they were discovered by Eva, Nanjô and the cousins (and because of the different animations are very unlikely to be animation errors).
Eva is highly unlikely to murder George and was visibly distraught over his death.
Krauss and Natsuhi seem to actually surprise her, making her run to the mansion as if suspecting a different culprit.
Nanjô is proven to have been killed by a person other than Eva with full intention of murdering him.
It is the last murder which actually drove Battler into a corner because this Episode is heavily featuring an Eva culrpit theory, which is only destroyed at the very last moment.

EP4 is quite similar in that it is easiest when accepting Kinzô/Beatrice as a culprit duo, responsible for the murders. Yet the only time when Beatrice called on anybody was after everybody beside Maria and Battler had apparently been killed. There is also the mistake in Kyries description of her very own death, forgetting that none of the locks in the mansion were classic key locks, making it unlikely that she was in the situation which she provided.

Was it ever brought up how the government took legal control of the property? Was Eva compensated? Could the government just take it without compensation?

In any case, the travel restriction is not enforced very strongly. Ange and Kawabata just up and went without anyone stopping them.

I doubt that the government took complete legal control over Rokkenjima. I'd think that Eva merely agreed to declare Rokkenjima a restricted area...it would be in her personal interest as well if her intention is to keep the truth hidden (as it appears).
There are some restricted areas throughout the world where entry is basically forbidden but small groups of people might be able to enter. Without a team of experts it'd be highly unlikely to discover definitive proof of anything, especially after the years went by and Rokkenjima was left uncared for. Those groups would be unlikely to get to Rokkenjima without any problems.
The fishermen are depicted as very superstitious and affraid of the Kami enshrined on Rokkenjima, so they'd be unlikely to provide passage there as well. And Kawabata was shown to have some inside knowledge, but I'd doubt he would share it with anybody.

Originally Posted by Renall

Except... I mean there totally is still relevant evidence in the form of Kuwadorian. Not for the event, perhaps, but wouldn't Witch Hunters be enamored with the secret mansion of the occult freak Kinzo? You'd think the "secret" dock would've become some kind of pilgrimage site. And if the house is abandoned, it actually could potentially be pretty dangerous to go there.

Because of the above I'd say it should have become pretty difficult to actually access Rokkenjima for any third party. The waters in the Izu area seems to be pretty regulated and while small parties could go by unnoticed it would probably be more difficult for larger groups of people.
In a realistic scenario I'd say people would have ignored that rule after a while and would have gone anyway, but I think it's safer to assume that this does not count for Ryûkishi's universe.

[LyricalAura]

Originally Posted by haguruma

There is also the mistake in Kyries description of her very own death, forgetting that none of the locks in the mansion were classic key locks, making it unlikely that she was in the situation which she provided.

Now that you phrase it that way... Shannon's been a servant and part-time resident of that mansion for years. Would she really make a mistake like that if she was the one who prepared Kyrie's story? It's not something like the well that actually has a narrative justification, and regardless of what Meta-Beatrice was doing, Shannon never seems to have gone out of her way to deliberately leave clues for Battler in any other instances.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by LyricalAura

Now that you phrase it that way... Shannon's been a servant and part-time resident of that mansion for years. Would she really make a mistake like that if she was the one who prepared Kyrie's story? It's not something like the well that actually has a narrative justification, and regardless of what Meta-Beatrice was doing, Shannon never seems to have gone out of her way to deliberately leave clues for Battler in any other instances.

Yes, it's actually Kyrie who transmitted many false details to Battler. Like she also told him about their escape from the well behind the mansion, which he found sealed beyond opening.
It's not unlikely that Kyrie tried to construct a story that sounded believable enough, but didn't go out to research and check any details. Like she probably saw the well but didn't check wether it was actually sealed or she saw the doors in the mansion everyday and assumed they would have antique-style locks as well, because the whole mansion was designed that way.

Shannon is very unlikely to make such a mistake, especially carrying such a key herself and locking doors day and night. She'd know that it would be spotted immediatly if you'd say "it came through the keyhole" if there is none.