North Korea Crisis

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

There are three reasons for the Kaesong Industrial Region:

1. Warming of relationships between the two countries.
2. Finding an alternative to PRC labor.
3. Testing the system which is planned to be used if DPRK falls.

I'm still not really getting how the DPRK government allowing South Korea to open factories in Northern territory is some some kind of practical blueprint for the South to Govern North Korea. It certainly doesn't teach the South Koreans how to implement social/political/economic control. All they did was open some factories.

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

1. DPRK citizens already know just how far they're behind. It's not like they're blind to things.

To be fair, right now to a large extent they don't do anything about it because they live in a repressive police state, and they can't exactly organize a protest against their living conditions. But a South Korean run government couldn't afford to maintain the same level force to crack down on dissidence. Once the ROK takes over management, you're eventually going to see people realize that complaining might be a way to improve their circumstances.

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

2. DPRK citizens already know that they will be second/third class citizens if they try to immediately integrate into ROK society. They know they would not be able to keep up with the harsh competition that ROK has on a daily basis, and that it's better they build things up in the north.

That may be true, but they're going to be second/third class citizens if you turn North Korea into a ROK managed colony. They'll be nominally part of territory controlled/staked out by the ROk, they'll nominally be citizens of it, but they'll be second class citizens.

Regardless of how you do it, after awhile the North Koreans will realize they don't like being second class citizens. And there will be problems if the North Koreans start thinking to this prior to the ROK thinks the North is developed enough to be integrated. Especially if they think they're being kept that way because it's financially beneficial for South Korean companies using the North for cheap labor.

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

3. ROKA already has the authorization to stop any floods of refugees with force.

Well at least hypothetically. It's just a matter of whether or not the ROK government has the political capital to shoot up too many refugees.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

Sumeragi is under the impression that if SK would draw a line in the sand the wave and waves of NK refugee would not cross that line.

Failing that SK can machine gun and bomb any refugee trying to cross the border without repercussions form the international community.

You know, there is this nice little line called the DMZ which happens to be one of the most heavily mined places in the world. Short of mass suicide there is no real way to get across the land border, and boat people are not really an option for the mass majority of the people.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

You know, there is this nice little line called the DMZ which happens to be one of the most heavily mined places in the world. Short of mass suicide there is no real way to get across the land border, and boat people are not really an option for the mass majority of the people.

I think we been through this argument before, and you lost. There is Kaesong, not mined, Highways which are not mined, railroads that pass between both nations that are not mined, passage ways that may exist that are not mined, and mine them selves can be removed to clear paths.

The biggest scary thing that stopped the flood has been the Korean army, both North and South. If there is no army, people will figure out a way to cross.

[Sumeragi]

Yes, and the fact is..... you're completely wrong. Kaesong still has mined borders, the only road connection is at Panmunjeom, the only railroad is the Donghae Bukbu Line, all along the border is a 4 km deep minefield (half of which is comprised of undetectable wooden mines) backed by highly electrified fences capable of frying just about anything.

Mind stop saying misconceptions based on something you have no idea of?

[Ledgem]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

I am wondering what Sumeragi got on his/her University thesis....

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

I think we been through this argument before, and you lost.

C'mon Archmage, there's no need to make it so personal. Sumeragi has some interesting ideas, let's keep to them, and not her (as interesting as she may be ).

(Sorry I have nothing else to contribute, since I don't know much about this topic. Just enjoying reading everyone else's information and thoughts.)

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

We aren't exactly talking about walking across the width of U.S. The distance between Pyongyang and Seoul is like....120 miles. It is a distance on foot, but not a impossible one.

Also, if refugee waves wouldn't be a problem, then why is both SK, China, US all sleep fitfully on the idea of a Nk implosion?

Are you telling me the government of South Korea AND China are a band of chicken little?

ROK and PRC have different problems. PRC is the one concerned with refugees, while ROK is focused on how to bring out true reunification without the interference of a certain hegemonists.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Yes, and the fact is..... you're completely wrong. Kaesong still has mined borders, the only road connection is at Panmunjeom, the only railroad is the Donghae Bukbu Line, all along the border is a 4 km deep minefield (half of which is comprised of undetectable wooden mines) backed by highly electrified fences capable of frying just about anything.

Mind stop saying misconceptions based on something you have no idea of?

Mind start citing sources? If SK civilians can just drive to and from Kaesong, then the road is probably not mined. Similarly, I doubt NK clear out a damn mine field every morning to make sure NK peons isn't blown sky high.

Electric fences are only useful for livestock. They can be easily disabled if no one is stopping them.

Mines again has countermeasures to deal with. And I laugh at the idea of wooden mines. Because wooden mines has a very short life span, if nobody go replace it, the thing just became degraded due to nature.

If NK stop preventing people from leaving, then the question become how would SK stop people from coming in without resorting to violence. Or if it is moral to stop people from coming in.

Lastly, there is economics. How would Seoul manage dual currencies without making it appear of exploiting their northern brothers. All it take is a couple NK folks visit SK and realize they are being duped as cheap labor.

Then what?

[ChainLegacy]

Originally Posted by Ledgem

C'mon Archmage, there's no need to make it so personal. Sumeragi has some interesting ideas, let's keep to them, and not her (as interesting as she may be ).

(Sorry I have nothing else to contribute, since I don't know much about this topic. Just enjoying reading everyone else's information and thoughts.)

I think it takes two to tango. I'm like you and I don't have much to contribute, but I think both sides could benefit from just debating the facts instead of being demeaning to one another.

Personally, I'm not a fan of nationalism, so I can't really fathom how people are so passionate in their defense of a nation-state's actions. Speculate on the reasons for things, debate the merits, etc, but don't take on the actions of a country as if it somehow reflects on you as a person, regardless of your familial connections. I'm completely sympathetic to defending your nation's culture and the people living within, but the actions of a government really don't reflect on anyone but the big players pulling the strings.

I don't know all the details, but my speculation is that North Korea's militarized political culture makes this kind of aggressive international rhetoric attractive to a young leader trying to give legitimacy to his rule. I just worry that when you keep barking so much, you might unintentionally provoke a real fight. For instance, if a lone operative in the army goes trigger happy and makes an attack due to being fired up from all the talk, it could easily escalate into a full-blown war. I do wonder if the incidents in 2010 are the result of this kind of situation (attacks made by the army but not necessarily planned or authorized by leadership). Surely, there wasn't as much tension then as there is now, and if such an incident were to occur in the present context, things could turn ugly.

As for reunification, I'd assume the border would have to be demilitarized with attempts made to clear out any minefields. My only knowledge of similar situations is with Germany and, not very comparable really, but the reconstruction Southern US after the civil war. I think that it would take a significant length of time for a full recovery. From what I've heard, however, the North is rich in natural resources, so perhaps government initiatives could pick up the slack in providing employment until the private sector has expanded. The South wasn't always the economic powerhouse it is today, so it's not an impossible feat for the North to be gradually rehabilitated.

[Sumeragi]

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Mind start citing sources? If SK civilians can just drive to and from Kaesong, then the road is probably not mined. Similarly, I doubt NK clear out a damn mine field every morning to make sure NK peons isn't blown sky high.

Yes, one road which has military check points. You think that'll be easy to cross?

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Electric fences are only useful for livestock. They can be easily disabled if no one is stopping them.

Obviously you have no idea what kind of fences they are.

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Mines again has countermeasures to deal with. And I laugh at the idea of wooden mines. Because wooden mines has a very short life span, if nobody go replace it, the thing just became degraded due to nature.

You mean the decades old ones that floated into ROK during the floods two years ago and killed one person?

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

If NK stop preventing people from leaving, then the question become how would SK stop people from coming in without resorting to violence. Or if it is moral to stop people from coming in.

Sure, that's supposing they manage to get into ROK in the first place. Have you ever even been along the border like I have?

Originally Posted by ArchmageXin

Lastly, there is economics. How would Seoul manage dual currencies without making it appear of exploiting their northern brothers. All it take is a couple NK folks visit SK and realize they are being duped as cheap labor.

You mean what is already done in Kaesong? You seem to underestimate the knowledge and overestimate the idealism of DPRK people. They know they're behind, they know they would find it near impossible to survive in the brutally competitive ROK society, and they know those in Kaesong are still on a higher lifestyle even with supposed exploitation. The point is, ROK had gone under the exact same conditions to get to where it is today. You think the people of DPRK will be impatient like brats if they have the chance to actually earn growth?

[ArchmageXin]

[mod edit: unnecessary provocation...]

Tell me about this:

Right now North Korea is benefiting via Kaesong, a form of currency exchange. NK get dollars, NK workers get NK Won (which probably is reasonable amount in NK currency). SK get cheap labor because the exchange rate arbitrage.

Lets say in your dream world NK Collapses, without nukes and fanfare that tend to happen. Kim dies, and the entire military regime just vanishes.

Will the entire NK nation be paid in SK currency for everything, or a local currency? how will they handle the exchange rate?

Explain that to me.

[Sumeragi]

I don't expect the military regime to vanish without some golden parachutes, but I'll go along with the scenario.

Ironically enough, it'll mostly be in US dollars and a separate currency. Using the ROK won will only cause the entire economy of the north to collapse, as the demand for ROK goods would exceed the demand for DPRK good even with the more expensive prices. It's a problem that Germany had to deal with in their unification of the marks, and ROK would avoid such a situation.

[JokerD]

On the issue of refugees, I think they would come to the boarder and be promptly herded into refugee camps set up by both China and SK. While the distance is not great, you must remember that the people are mostly malnourished and starving. I would question how far can they go.

On the issue of Kaesong, while it is true that there is a road and railway link, these go through the DMZ. If refugee come over through those, there would be no problems since a road and railroad is easily monitored and those walking along it (I don't supposed the NK people use cars) taken to the refugee camps.

If I may, I think this refugee wave scenario would only come with the total collapse of order in NK and they would only come if:
1) NK gov implodes
2) War, NK looses

Only for 1 would we see a flood of refugees crossing the DMZ. Although HOW the farmers would know about the collapse is in question.
For 2, SK (US, China, NATO, UN whatever) troops would already be in NK so refugees crossing the DMZ would be minimal since the troops would already be in NK to control such a wave.
Though I have to note, both scenarios would most likely result in a flood into China, that's something they have to deal with on their own.

On the issue on uplifting NK to SK standards. I have to admit I agree with Sumeragi's plan on Kaesong being a model. On prices being a competitive advantage being lost, the NK workers will be paid lower than the average SK worker, but that's the case even in China, where a wage in the factory near Beijing would be more expensive than let's say, Shenzhen. Selected cities would have industral complexes set up. This developement is similar to when China opened up, where selected cities are earmarked, the effects are then spread to the surrounding counties.
Also provisions would also need to be set aside for the farming industry, where it most likely needs to get set up from the ground as well.
All in all, the cost of all this will be enough to set SK back for a generation or more. And a lot would depend on the people's willingness to some suffering, on the parts of both NK and SK.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

Yes, one road which has military check points. You think that'll be easy to cross?

Obviously you have no idea what kind of fences they are.

You mean the decades old ones that floated into ROK during the floods two years ago and killed one person?

Sure, that's supposing they manage to get into ROK in the first place. Have you ever even been along the border like I have?

Sorry Sumeragi, but i have to agree with ArchmageXin that landmine field and electric fences are nothing to North Korean immigrants, unless ROK willing to club or shoot (...or hang their corpses medieval style) immigrants on deterrence...

I mean the whole points of mine field is to prevent quick advancement of mass troops through the DMZ, immobile their movements and left them open target for heavier weapon (artillery, missiles and the like). You have a bunch of ex-military trained veteran willing to sacrifice their life to open the path for his fellow citizens toward prosperity, then allow them to lay around that whole mine field for a month, and he will unplug all those .

Or some careful explosions to open a straight path will do


Edit @JokerD: We are talking about North Korean with all their Military First policy and such, not some helpless West Africa refugee. You set up refugee camps there, and they will use the opened path for goods and troops movements northward to infiltrate back into South Korea.

[LeoXiao]

Originally Posted by risingstar3110

I mean the whole points of mine field is to prevent quick advancement of mass troops through the DMZ, immobile their movements and left them open target for heavier weapon (artillery, missiles and the like). You have a bunch of ex-military trained veteran willing to sacrifice their life to open the path for his fellow citizens toward prosperity, then allow them to lay around that whole mine field for a month, and he will unplug all those .

Um, really? You might want to think about that again.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by LeoXiao

Um, really? You might want to think about that again.

Your statement could be....

1) False, you need to stop assuming just because other sides are communists does not mean they will not willing to risk their lives for common good.

2) True, they could do it out of greed. A safe path out of the mine field to happy paradise in the south is easily high in value.

Finally,

http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...rth-korea.html

It say something huge when Jon Steward bashing North Korea get 2.8 million hits in China....and Chinese censors didn't stop it.

[Sumeragi]

I would say

3) They're not going to be changing the general picture of there being no flood of refugees.

[ArchmageXin]

Originally Posted by Sumeragi

I would say

3) They're not going to be changing the general picture of there being no flood of refugees.

You know, if China, South Korea, U.S think tanks, Government agencies and media all fear the said refugee waves, why don't you provide details @ research level stating otherwise? So far all we have are claims, without even logical assumptions. Detail your strategies, and how the current Big evil Chinese, benevolent South Koreans and godly Americans has worked toward implementing said strategies.

[Solace]

Barring any extremely urgent news, I think this thread deserves a break for a bit. This discussion isn't really going anywhere at the moment.

Thread closed.