2013-04-15, 16:34 | Link #1101 | |||
Sensei, aishite imasu
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Hong Kong Shatterdome
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Regardless of how you do it, after awhile the North Koreans will realize they don't like being second class citizens. And there will be problems if the North Koreans start thinking to this prior to the ROK thinks the North is developed enough to be integrated. Especially if they think they're being kept that way because it's financially beneficial for South Korean companies using the North for cheap labor. Well at least hypothetically. It's just a matter of whether or not the ROK government has the political capital to shoot up too many refugees.
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2013-04-15, 18:10 | Link #1102 | |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Dai Korai Teikoku
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2013-04-15, 19:21 | Link #1103 | |
Master of Coin
Join Date: Mar 2008
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The biggest scary thing that stopped the flood has been the Korean army, both North and South. If there is no army, people will figure out a way to cross. |
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2013-04-15, 19:35 | Link #1104 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Dai Korai Teikoku
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Yes, and the fact is..... you're completely wrong. Kaesong still has mined borders, the only road connection is at Panmunjeom, the only railroad is the Donghae Bukbu Line, all along the border is a 4 km deep minefield (half of which is comprised of undetectable wooden mines) backed by highly electrified fences capable of frying just about anything.
Mind stop saying misconceptions based on something you have no idea of? |
2013-04-15, 20:00 | Link #1105 | |
Love Yourself
Join Date: Mar 2003
Location: Northeast USA
Age: 38
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(Sorry I have nothing else to contribute, since I don't know much about this topic. Just enjoying reading everyone else's information and thoughts.)
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2013-04-15, 20:02 | Link #1106 | |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Dai Korai Teikoku
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2013-04-15, 20:15 | Link #1107 | |
Master of Coin
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Electric fences are only useful for livestock. They can be easily disabled if no one is stopping them. Mines again has countermeasures to deal with. And I laugh at the idea of wooden mines. Because wooden mines has a very short life span, if nobody go replace it, the thing just became degraded due to nature. If NK stop preventing people from leaving, then the question become how would SK stop people from coming in without resorting to violence. Or if it is moral to stop people from coming in. Lastly, there is economics. How would Seoul manage dual currencies without making it appear of exploiting their northern brothers. All it take is a couple NK folks visit SK and realize they are being duped as cheap labor. Then what? |
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2013-04-15, 20:21 | Link #1108 | |
廉頗
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Massachusetts
Age: 34
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Personally, I'm not a fan of nationalism, so I can't really fathom how people are so passionate in their defense of a nation-state's actions. Speculate on the reasons for things, debate the merits, etc, but don't take on the actions of a country as if it somehow reflects on you as a person, regardless of your familial connections. I'm completely sympathetic to defending your nation's culture and the people living within, but the actions of a government really don't reflect on anyone but the big players pulling the strings. I don't know all the details, but my speculation is that North Korea's militarized political culture makes this kind of aggressive international rhetoric attractive to a young leader trying to give legitimacy to his rule. I just worry that when you keep barking so much, you might unintentionally provoke a real fight. For instance, if a lone operative in the army goes trigger happy and makes an attack due to being fired up from all the talk, it could easily escalate into a full-blown war. I do wonder if the incidents in 2010 are the result of this kind of situation (attacks made by the army but not necessarily planned or authorized by leadership). Surely, there wasn't as much tension then as there is now, and if such an incident were to occur in the present context, things could turn ugly. As for reunification, I'd assume the border would have to be demilitarized with attempts made to clear out any minefields. My only knowledge of similar situations is with Germany and, not very comparable really, but the reconstruction Southern US after the civil war. I think that it would take a significant length of time for a full recovery. From what I've heard, however, the North is rich in natural resources, so perhaps government initiatives could pick up the slack in providing employment until the private sector has expanded. The South wasn't always the economic powerhouse it is today, so it's not an impossible feat for the North to be gradually rehabilitated. |
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2013-04-15, 20:24 | Link #1109 | ||||
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Dai Korai Teikoku
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You mean what is already done in Kaesong? You seem to underestimate the knowledge and overestimate the idealism of DPRK people. They know they're behind, they know they would find it near impossible to survive in the brutally competitive ROK society, and they know those in Kaesong are still on a higher lifestyle even with supposed exploitation. The point is, ROK had gone under the exact same conditions to get to where it is today. You think the people of DPRK will be impatient like brats if they have the chance to actually earn growth? Last edited by relentlessflame; 2013-04-15 at 20:42. Reason: remove flamebait... |
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2013-04-15, 20:45 | Link #1110 |
Master of Coin
Join Date: Mar 2008
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[mod edit: unnecessary provocation...]
Tell me about this: Right now North Korea is benefiting via Kaesong, a form of currency exchange. NK get dollars, NK workers get NK Won (which probably is reasonable amount in NK currency). SK get cheap labor because the exchange rate arbitrage. Lets say in your dream world NK Collapses, without nukes and fanfare that tend to happen. Kim dies, and the entire military regime just vanishes. Will the entire NK nation be paid in SK currency for everything, or a local currency? how will they handle the exchange rate? Explain that to me. Last edited by relentlessflame; 2013-04-15 at 20:49. Reason: Please don't make things worse... |
2013-04-15, 21:02 | Link #1111 |
Banned
Join Date: Nov 2010
Location: Dai Korai Teikoku
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I don't expect the military regime to vanish without some golden parachutes, but I'll go along with the scenario.
Ironically enough, it'll mostly be in US dollars and a separate currency. Using the ROK won will only cause the entire economy of the north to collapse, as the demand for ROK goods would exceed the demand for DPRK good even with the more expensive prices. It's a problem that Germany had to deal with in their unification of the marks, and ROK would avoid such a situation. |
2013-04-15, 21:50 | Link #1112 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2003
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On the issue of refugees, I think they would come to the boarder and be promptly herded into refugee camps set up by both China and SK. While the distance is not great, you must remember that the people are mostly malnourished and starving. I would question how far can they go.
On the issue of Kaesong, while it is true that there is a road and railway link, these go through the DMZ. If refugee come over through those, there would be no problems since a road and railroad is easily monitored and those walking along it (I don't supposed the NK people use cars) taken to the refugee camps. If I may, I think this refugee wave scenario would only come with the total collapse of order in NK and they would only come if: 1) NK gov implodes 2) War, NK looses Only for 1 would we see a flood of refugees crossing the DMZ. Although HOW the farmers would know about the collapse is in question. For 2, SK (US, China, NATO, UN whatever) troops would already be in NK so refugees crossing the DMZ would be minimal since the troops would already be in NK to control such a wave. Though I have to note, both scenarios would most likely result in a flood into China, that's something they have to deal with on their own. On the issue on uplifting NK to SK standards. I have to admit I agree with Sumeragi's plan on Kaesong being a model. On prices being a competitive advantage being lost, the NK workers will be paid lower than the average SK worker, but that's the case even in China, where a wage in the factory near Beijing would be more expensive than let's say, Shenzhen. Selected cities would have industral complexes set up. This developement is similar to when China opened up, where selected cities are earmarked, the effects are then spread to the surrounding counties. Also provisions would also need to be set aside for the farming industry, where it most likely needs to get set up from the ground as well. All in all, the cost of all this will be enough to set SK back for a generation or more. And a lot would depend on the people's willingness to some suffering, on the parts of both NK and SK. |
2013-04-15, 21:51 | Link #1113 | |
✘˵╹◡╹˶✘
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Australia
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I mean the whole points of mine field is to prevent quick advancement of mass troops through the DMZ, immobile their movements and left them open target for heavier weapon (artillery, missiles and the like). You have a bunch of ex-military trained veteran willing to sacrifice their life to open the path for his fellow citizens toward prosperity, then allow them to lay around that whole mine field for a month, and he will unplug all those . Or some careful explosions to open a straight path will do Edit @JokerD: We are talking about North Korean with all their Military First policy and such, not some helpless West Africa refugee. You set up refugee camps there, and they will use the opened path for goods and troops movements northward to infiltrate back into South Korea.
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2013-04-15, 22:13 | Link #1114 | |
思想工作
Join Date: Mar 2008
Location: Vereinigte Staaten
Age: 31
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2013-04-16, 08:32 | Link #1115 |
Master of Coin
Join Date: Mar 2008
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Your statement could be.... 1) False, you need to stop assuming just because other sides are communists does not mean they will not willing to risk their lives for common good. 2) True, they could do it out of greed. A safe path out of the mine field to happy paradise in the south is easily high in value. Finally, http://www.newyorker.com/online/blog...rth-korea.html It say something huge when Jon Steward bashing North Korea get 2.8 million hits in China....and Chinese censors didn't stop it. |
2013-04-16, 09:05 | Link #1117 |
Master of Coin
Join Date: Mar 2008
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You know, if China, South Korea, U.S think tanks, Government agencies and media all fear the said refugee waves, why don't you provide details @ research level stating otherwise? So far all we have are claims, without even logical assumptions. Detail your strategies, and how the current Big evil Chinese, benevolent South Koreans and godly Americans has worked toward implementing said strategies.
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