2010-10-04, 08:26 | Link #1461 |
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Well, say for a second the message bottles were pre-written by Yasu or "Beatrice" or whomever. She wasn't expecting Battler to remember, and wrote it as such. Future writers lifted the idea that "Battler doesn't remember a promise he made" and made it a basis motive. And it might have been, but in truth, he didn't forget (but by that time the message bottles were already written and/or released).
Then the incident happened. Now the message bottles are the main sources of the story, and in that story, he didn't remember. Perhaps he really did remember, but no one presently exists (as far as we've been led to believe) who can set that straight. And yes, that would suggest that any crime is independent of "Beatrice" taking a specific action, at least a specific malevolent action.
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2010-10-04, 08:50 | Link #1462 | |
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In conjunction with the fact that Yasu is apparently related to whether or not Battler returns that year, the only motivation we're given for that is his promise with Yasu. In addition with the fact that George is a manipulative asswipe, we can conclude he spent a good deal of time convincing her that Battler wasn't aware of her existence. Therefore, we agree on that, overall. So, all that really leaves is the question of what exactly happened? It's said that the tragedy was made worse because of Battler's presence, not that there wouldnt have been one to begin with. So how does that work? |
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2010-10-04, 08:54 | Link #1463 |
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Plans are always made worse by unexpected eventualities. Battler returning is unexpected. If someone had a plan, it could have been screwed up in a way that led to increased tragedy by Battler's return, whether he was specifically the cause of that or not.
But we'd have to reconcile that with the message bottle stories suggesting Battler did in fact return. These would have to be written once it's known he actually will, or else it's wild speculation on the bottle writer's part (imagine the surprise if Battler was never there or something). There's not much time prior to the incident to write that.
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2010-10-04, 15:18 | Link #1464 | |
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Anyways, Bernkastel said the tragedy ends the same way every time. The only person who survives is Eva, wouldn't that mean no tragedy happens in Leon's world?
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2010-10-04, 16:24 | Link #1465 | |
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And that aside, what basis does the message bottle serve in the endscroll if ep1 was "more realistic?" By your logic, the bottle either is just random crap or an incredibly and impossibly accurate accounting of the real events that just took place. Real events in which Eva died, of course.
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2010-10-04, 18:22 | Link #1466 | |
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2010-10-04, 18:28 | Link #1467 |
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Do we really have any idea why a person would want to do that? I wouldn't go so far as to call it fraud, especially if the person is asking readers to find the truth. That seems to be at odds with an intent to deceive. Isn't that exactly what Battler came around to? The games not being the truth not making them useless frauds?
Also you apparently are content to completely disregard the ep1 Tea Party wherein everyone is talking about the story that just happened. That should be equally as much an obstacle to your claim as the counter that the ep7 Tea Party has a framing story.
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2010-10-04, 18:30 | Link #1468 | ||||
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Moreover, I contend that Yasu heard about Battler's return from Jessica/Rudolph/Minion X within a long enough time frame to write Legend and Turn, there's no reason to accept point blank that the notice was that short on Battler returning. Quote:
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There'd be no credibility in that case. There's no logical reason to assume that there'd be such a cult following forming up around those message bottles beforehand, so there's no real reason to make them blatant fictions depicting past events. They'd be normally be dismissed out of hand. If the idea is to draw attention to the stories and give them credibility, they need to be convincing accounts of what could have happened. There's no logical reason to depict having Eva die, and being confirmed to die in the story, when she didn't in reality. Therefore, they had to be written during a time period when it was simply not known that she'd survive. Quote:
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2010-10-04, 18:42 | Link #1469 | |
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Indeed, the very act of writing multiple accounts automatically places at least all but one of those accounts solidly in fictional territory (and, we suspect, probably all of them outright). That alone should destroy any hope of "credibility" in actually telling the true story of the incident. If the goal was to "explain what happened," then it would be necessary that the stories depict Eva's survival and I would then agree with you that they absolutely could not have been written later. However, that objective cannot be accepted as axiomatic. The possibility that someone unanticipated survived (either as a writer or as a reader) opens the prospect that the messages were only intended for a very small group of people. In that case, the goal was not to curry credibility, but to develop just enough public presence that the stories would be accessible to the intended audience (or potential audience, if they were writing to someone like Battler whom they hoped survived but didn't know). That said, "accurate accounts" could have risked the message bottles never surfacing. If the police believed them to be actual murder confessions, they might have sat on them as part of the investigation. Since Eva dies early in both ep1 and ep2, if those were the message bottle stories, the police would dismiss them as some kind of weird nonsense or at least release them at some point. Perhaps the most credible thing in most of the episodes is that Battler generally ends the story in a theoretical position to survive (at least in the sense of not being actually dead; his survival odds in ep4 seem a bit low where he's standing). This, I think, more than anything speaks to the objective of most of the authors, which is to probe the unknown and see if Battler responds. Maybe he has, or as of ep8, maybe he is about to. Basically, I don't think it's so easy to say it "makes no sense" for them to have been written later. In a way I think it makes very little sense for them to have been written before, though there are only a few small reasons why not.
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2010-10-04, 18:52 | Link #1470 | ||||||
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There's too much risk of the effort being wasted if it was written intended as a blatant forgery. Quote:
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Thats the normal thing to happen. Quote:
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2010-10-04, 18:58 | Link #1471 | |||||
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2010-10-04, 19:30 | Link #1472 | ||
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http://community.livejournal.com/witchhunters/7134.html Quote:
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2010-10-04, 19:33 | Link #1473 |
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Well we're hardly reliable sources. Where did Ootsuki get his information? Pretty much the same place we did: Somebody claimed it happened that way whom we cannot source (in this case, the ep1 endscroll). The Professor more or less repeats the tale. The one thing we do know is the message bottles and diary share handwriting samples (I don't doubt Ootsuki on this at least since he claims to have seen all three).
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2010-10-05, 19:03 | Link #1475 |
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Is it a possibility that Battler was never on Rokkenjima during 1986 at all? I mean, perhaps the first 2 message bottles were just fanciful nonsense about how Battler would suddenly decide to come back for no real reason, and she'd teach him a lesson. In actual fact, Battler never returns - he's through with the Ushiromiya family permanently. They die in the explosion, Battler keeps living his life as before.
The main problem here becomes "Why doesn't Battler go back to Ange?" again, but... that's the same for every theory. I suppose we can add the wild speculation "He thought Ange had died in the blast" (considering she was meant to be there). Come to think of it, I can probably go further with this theory. The Battler we know is a semi-fictional creation - a kindof idealised version of the person Beatrice loved 6 years ago. Last edited by Leafsnail; 2010-10-05 at 19:20. |
2010-10-05, 20:10 | Link #1476 | |
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2010-10-05, 20:25 | Link #1477 |
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Well, yeah. It demotes our protagonist to just another fictional entity. Under this theory, Battler is basically the same as Erika (exists, but not in the form seen in the story, and not actually on the island).
Hadn't considered this linking to Amakusa, but that does sortof seem to work. |
2010-10-05, 21:17 | Link #1478 | |
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The theory does have problems of its own, many related to how you believe each characters would do, think, and know (as Renall and Teh had been pointing out); but if you are thinking on the lines of "Battler never went to 1986 Rokkenjima", take a look at the speculation thread. (yes, this is an advertisement!) |
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2010-10-05, 23:56 | Link #1479 |
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In theory there's nothing wrong with the idea, but it would be quite odd in the "future" context as Battler not going ought to be fairly common knowledge. There are things that might support it (Beatrice's evasiveness on whether he could've prevented it if he hadn't returned, Bern's suggestion that the massacre would happen even in Lion's world). Still, not many things. It also feels sort of anticlimactic in the face of BATTLER's ep7 promise.
"You want to know the real story? Pssh, I dunno, I wasn't even there."
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2010-10-06, 00:38 | Link #1480 | |
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Moving on, I also believe that any preparations for Battler's arrival had time. However, my problem comes with what happens on the island. I just don't believe a pre-written letter can be accurate because of the randomness of what can take place and what can go wrong.
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