Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Jaden]

Having Wagner as a mobile reserve would definitely be a huge asset in the war.

But there's way more at stake right now. If the southern headquarters remain in shutdown, that means no air sorties, no reserve deployments, and total chaos in the chain of command, which was already compromised to begin with. I don't see how the Russians can hold the line against Ukrainian counteroffensive in these conditions.

Also, Belgorod is likely to escalate again.

Spoiler for screencap:

[Yu Ominae]

Hearing from Wagner that Rostov's under their control.

[Key Board]

Putin explicitly calling this treason seems to suggest a that this isn’t a LARP and there’s no room for negotiation

But I could be wrong

//

[ganbaru]

Originally Posted by Renegade334

OTOH, most of the surviving "convict volunteers" have already served their six months and returned to Russia as free men, and are not guaranteed to take up arms for Prigozhin).

Has it been confirmed? I did read somewhere than the contracts might had different time condition depending of the sentence the convicts had, and given the reputation of the Wagner group, I would suspect them to not respect their part of those contract.

[Renegade334]

Wagner apparently bypassed Voronezh, where a fuel explosion took place right after a Ka-52 flyby.

Aside from scenes of solidarity in Rostov, the Russian population as a whole seems rather apathetic to it all. Could be it still hasn't hit them yet.

@ganbaru - this is what a confirmed Russian forum member of TankNet said on the matter:

Originally Posted by Roman Alymov

Most of Wagner are not convicts - but former military (many of them from SOF) and LNR/DNR militia members. Convicts who were hired last year have allready through their 6-month contracts and left (some of them are back on new contract, but they are no more "convicts" but free citizens).

Also, it is entirely possible that Wagner's bureaucratic engine is a lot leaner than the RU government's and Prigozhin knows how to keep his own men happy and loyal (hammer execution videos notwithstanding) by not indulging in the same bad habits (e.g. falsifying your location and assignment papers before carting you off to the frontlines, ignoring complaints about contract clauses not being respected, denying leave and skimping on promised salaries, etc.).

[Yu Ominae]

I'm guessing not yet.

Apparently, armed soldiers are posted at the Kremlin, Duma and the Russian MOD building.

[Renegade334]

Kadyrov just expressed support for Putin.

No surprises here.

[MeoTwister5]

Apparently members of the Belarusian government and members of Lukashenkos family have left Belarus and have landed in Turkey.

[James Rye]

Originally Posted by MeoTwister5

Apparently members of the Belarusian government and members of Lukashenkos family have left Belarus and have landed in Turkey.

Why would they flew over some internal struggle in Russia? Do they fear the same happening in Belarus?

[Yu Ominae]

Putin's speech he made.

He said that anyone supporting the mutiny will be met with harsh punishment. Also mentioned the "information network" by foreigners are to blame as well.

[Renegade334]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Why would they flew over some internal struggle in Russia? Do they fear the same happening in Belarus?

Given the speed at which Belarus is losing its own sovereignty, one could always presume - provided this said spate of airplane departures is indeed directly linked to the Prigozhin hoopla - that some of them are afraid of splash damage that will cross the borders as if those were never there in the first place.
...Or afraid of any Stalinian-like purges that might follow soon thereafter...because Putin will certainly not be playing nicely anymore, should he pull through this (and there is a good chance he will). Heck, he could even use this development as an excuse to launch his full-scale mobilization and do away with anyone he even remotely considers recalcitrant or an eyesore...like, say, Peskov who rather recently boasted that...umm...his own son was...uh, fighting for...Wagner. (aaaawkward!)

But who knows.

Map of Wagner's purported progress towards Moscow:
<--- Click to enlarge

At this rate, we should start seeing things happening within 16-24h. Either it'll be bloody or one-sided or absolutely ridiculous...or it'll be a giant nothing burger.

Rybar (AKA Mikhail Zvinchuk, a RU milblogger) has a more detailed map of how Wagner is moving and sidestepping the checkpoints:

<--- Click to enlarge

At Voronezh, the VKS blew up an oil depot to prevent it from falling into Wagner's hands: https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...44902100467713

Chechens on their way to Rostov-on-Don: https://twitter.com/Biz_Ukraine_Mag/...68838162972672
They're going, but they're going slowly because - or so they claim - their vehicles are worn down by constant fighting in Ukraine and are thus dogged by technical issues.


Aaaaaand Oryx is opening a whole new tracker: https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/st...47501658845184

Meanwhile, in Ukraine:

Spoiler:

YouTube

https://youtu.be/SSDxuVqeFZ0

Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

[Yu Ominae]

https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/s...80337816285186

OSINT technical posted a photo of Russian troops creating sandbag fortification with Russian politsiya keeping an eye out.

----

https://twitter.com/wartranslated/st...51944039145474

Not sure on this moment. Civilians are helping Wagner contractors by giving them food/water. They didn't stop them.

[Renegade334]

Shots fired again:

https://twitter.com/WarMach18898344/...57589920399360

...Or so it is claimed. That didn't look like a military truck.
But there are more and more reports of helicopters being sent to harass and stall Wagner before they can reach Moscow.

[Yu Ominae]

Got some long twitter chains to read. IMHO very good ones.

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...38798691115009

This one explained that Wagner contractors said their goodbyes to their families and told them to keep an eye on the news.

----

https://twitter.com/ChrisO_wiki/stat...00870947254273

This one explained the "chaos" within the Ministry of Internal Affairs. According to Telegram posts, the MIA's personnel were too drunk to respond to Wagner intrusions on a Friday night.

Many Russian LEOs are kinda nervous on confronting Wagner contractors should there be a firefight. Especially those assigned to work in Rostov. Gerasimov fled when he heard Wagner contractors were already in the downtown area.

[MeoTwister5]

It's starting to look like what's happening are delaying tactics on Wagner's approach to Moscow. You'd think that the army would stop them at all costs, but now people are making it look like a PMC is going to more or less succeed where Napoleon and Hitler failed.

So the question is whether the Russian army is plainly and consciously NOT attempting to stop them, or perhaps because they aren't able to. Whichever answer is correct speaks volumes on the stat of the Russian army.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...g_a_member_of/

Translated statement of a VDV paratrooper who joined Wagner 'cause he's pissed at what Russian MOD's doing. He hates the Kadyrov with a passion.

----

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...proaching_the/

People in Rostov are welcoming Wagner in the city. The contractors are happy to see this.

[Renegade334]

^--- There are also reports of Rostov residents approaching Wagnerites shortly after Putin's broadcast, to berate them and exhort them to stop what they're doing.

Plenty of claims from both sides, but I've yet to see something that is critical to all coups and the main guarantor of their success: widespread popular support.
So far, the main mood is apathy and mild anxiety, but not craze and fervor.
The thing is: when the population doesn't mobilize, those coups tend to fail...which is what happened in Turkey in 2016.

[Yu Ominae]

Seen at least one. But from what I heard/was told, it's just a local who happens to be drunk. (Shrugs)

[Renegade334]

Unconfirmed for now -- take this with an entire salt mine:

Putin has been using Lukashenko to negotiate a cessation of hostilities and return to the status quo ante with Prigozhin.
Some Telegram accounts claim the negotiations were unsuccessful, while others proclaim that they were actually successful, and the Wagner columns will consequently be turning around.

Given that there were casualties in this hoopla, and the personalities of the individuals (Prigozhin, Shoigu, Putin) in question, I doubt there will be a status quo ante.
At all.
Not after crossing the Rubicon and setting a very dangerous precedent.


Very weird two days, to say the least.


EDIT: https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-...-23/index.html

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin published a new audio recording Saturday claiming he was turning his forces around from a march toward Moscow.

The announcement comes as the Belarusian government claimed President Alexander Lukashenko had reached a deal with Wagner boss to halt the march of his forces on Moscow.

[Jaden]

Wow. In mother Russia, even the coup attempts are fake! I guess.

You would think that it's also a dangerous game, to just go back and pretend nothing has happened.

These kinds of incidents are gradually radicalizing Russians, because there have been questions raised about the government's legitimacy, and about the justifications for this war.