[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

As for Kanon/ fertilizer... heh, I'd be pretty surprised if I had spent a while digging up a corpse trying to remain secret only to have a guest offer to help you out with it. Although I'd suggest he was actually digging up the corpse in order to burn it later (presumably Krauss and Natsuhi buried him secretly in the woods) rather than going out to bury it. I think he was returning to the mansion in that scene.

That was the original idea -- that Kanon just dug up Kinzo's corpse with the intent to burn it up when it can be part of the otherwise fake deaths.

As far as I can see, there are only two practical ways for Kinzo's body to turn up burned:

1. It has been stored in the study marinating in embalming fluid for purposes unknown, and as the first twilight hits the fan, it is thrown out of the window, dragged to the nearby boiler room exit, and roasted.
2. It has been properly buried deep in the forest, but is excavated before the typhoon starts for the express purpose of burning it and mixing it in with the fake (or real) murder victims within the following 12 hours or so, after the murders start.

Everything else involves digging up a grave in the middle of the night, in a dark forest, under the rain, and then hauling a corpse across uneven terrain in these conditions, and not getting caught when you crawl in dirty and wet like a swamp monster dragging a corpse behind you. Not something particularly fun, fast, safe or easy to do -- and very likely can't be done. Digging takes time, effort and a dirty shovel.

I am not sure which of the two is the more plausible one, as both have some hints I consider fairly solid. The problem with the first is that purposes for keeping a body in the study for an entire year are unknown and no good ideas have been found, even though it otherwise fits Natsuhi's behaviour quite smoothly. The problem with the second is that while it very nicely fits Kanon's introduction scene in Ep1, the wheelbarrow and fertilizer sacks are described rather vaguely and sound kind of a stretch.

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

Or if Shannon and Kanon can indeed disguise themselves as each other, it could be the dead one out of the two in the sacks. I'd have trouble lifting someone of my own size and weight, afterall.

That also remains a possibility, though I doubt it'd be practical to ferry around two corpses at once, so if it's Shannon's or Kanon's corpse, Kinzo's corpse is elsewhere...

[delita-umw-]

Mmm, good point Oliver. I guess I'm thinking a little too unrealistically cause I want to pursue this Krauss/Eva alliance theory lol.

[Leafsnail]

Yeah, s/he probably isn't pushing around more than one body at once. You probably aren't gonna be able to push the body of a guy much larger than you and someone roughly the same size as you at the same time in any case.

It does seem like a bit of a stretch, but on the other hand, it does seem to scream "CLUE!" at you :P. At the very least, he probably isn't giving the roses a last minute dose of emergency fertilization.

[delita-umw-]

A thought on the whole wheelbarrow thing that resolves your vague issues. What if the fertilizer is a cover for Kanon already having moved the corpse and we are seeing the aftereffects of that? If we can agree that emergency fertilization is unreasonable and silly, then why on earth would the fertilizer even be out? Hell, would Kanon even normally need a wheelbarrow as part of his duties? It doesn't seem to be that much of a stretch for someone to have "forgotten" to have stored stored away the fertilizer in light of the typhoon in order to give Kanon an excuse to have the wheelbarrow out to make away with Kinzo's corpse. And if he's already done the deed, it would explain why he's so weak and why Battler had no problems with it while ensuring that the fertilizer itself is not suspicious.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by delita-umw-

And if he's already done the deed, it would explain why he's so weak and why Battler had no problems with it while ensuring that the fertilizer itself is not suspicious.

If Kanon is involved with maintaining the rose garden, he would need the wheelbarrow as part of his normal duties, but not very frequently. It would merely make a more striking story for him to be caught right in the act of transporting the corpse and get away with it, but obviously it isn't really required for this to happen. If digging up the body actually occurs, it's Kanon who has the best opportunity:

If we discount a multiple person plot, (it feels to me that Kinzo burning is someone's personal idea, but it's mostly an intuition right now) to excavate the corpse safely and conveniently, the following conditions should be met:

• You need to be unsupervised. It is best if everyone else is as busy as possible or temporarily away.
• It has to happen after the island servant schedule is cut down to the minimum, which is what happens right before the conference.
• You have to complete the deed before the expected arrival of the guests so they don't see you either.
• It has to be completed before rain starts and before dark, because either which will make the job too hard to bother. This is sort of redundant for establishing the time window, because guests arrive before that anyway.

If Kanon's duties include maintaining the rose garden, which they seem to do, (at least, he is never ordered to prepare rooms, or clean, what else would he be doing? My guess his official job description is 'odd jobs handyman and gardener') he is probably assigned for a last minute maintenance run, and is therefore out in the wild and unsupervised. Krauss, Natsuhi and Genji are watching each other and neither of them can do it without the other two noticing something. Kumasawa is out with Jessica (which, apparently, happens in all episodes, but is simply glazed over in most except Ep1) meeting the guests and doing last minute shopping. Only Shannon and Kanon seem to get a free moment, and Kanon's would be longer, since he is already out in the garden, so he can just skip work and go dig - while Shannon runs a higher chance of getting caught.

If burning Kinzo is part of the planned fake murder conspiracy, it becomes easier to do and more characters can do it since they can cover for each other's absence, but then we just don't really know who does it.

EDIT: P.S. Why in particular it could be Kanon's personal idea:

Kanon is repeatedly shown to have an Anti-Beatrice (which implies Anti-Fake-Murders-Conspiracy) stance, an Anti-Kinzo-Phantom-Conspiracy stance, and otherwise appears disinclined to participate in any plotting. Yet he pretty much inevitably has to be in on both of those through someone's pressure. If the fake murder plot involves using Kanon's 'corpse', he may get a clever idea to give both plots a kick in the shin by using Kinzo's corpse instead of his own.

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Kanon is repeatedly shown to have an Anti-Beatrice (which implies Anti-Fake-Murders-Conspiracy) stance, an Anti-Kinzo-Phantom-Conspiracy stance, and otherwise appears disinclined to participate in any plotting. Yet he pretty much inevitably has to be in on both of those through someone's pressure. If the fake murder plot involves using Kanon's 'corpse', he may get a clever idea to give both plots a kick in the shin by using Kinzo's corpse instead of his own.

Why is he faking his death during 2 out of 3 of the times Kinzo's corpse is discovered then?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Judoh

Why is he faking his death during 2 out of 3 of the times Kinzo's corpse is discovered then?

Possibly because that throws the epitaph order off. By inserting an extra corpse, he reduces the number of people it is possible to kill while being 'explained' by the epitaph by one.

[Verg Avesta]

Originally Posted by Oliver

If Kanon is involved with maintaining the rose garden, he would need the wheelbarrow as part of his normal duties, but not very frequently. It would merely make a more striking story for him to be caught right in the act of transporting the corpse and get away with it, but obviously it isn't really required for this to happen. If digging up the body actually occurs, it's Kanon who has the best opportunity:

One thing that jumped to my mind while thinking about the whole "Fertilizer-sack-Kinzo" thing was that there's one place that could very well store the main ingredient for some Kentucky Fried Kinzo later. And with that I mean the underground storage room, that's supposedly right next to the boiler room, or near it. In other words, Kanon could just waltz into the room, leave the fertilizer sacks in there, and when the time comes, run downstairs and burn the whole body as it's right next door.

.....If we add that he'll fake his own death to hunt the murderer, then wouldn't that basically become episode 1?

Originally Posted by Oliver

EDIT: P.S. Why in particular it could be Kanon's personal idea:

Kanon is repeatedly shown to have an Anti-Beatrice (which implies Anti-Fake-Murders-Conspiracy) stance, an Anti-Kinzo-Phantom-Conspiracy stance, and otherwise appears disinclined to participate in any plotting. Yet he pretty much inevitably has to be in on both of those through someone's pressure. If the fake murder plot involves using Kanon's 'corpse', he may get a clever idea to give both plots a kick in the shin by using Kinzo's corpse instead of his own.

Here's another thing. What if Kinzo's ring was actually buried with him? And when Kanon digs up the corpse, he takes the ring, and then proceeds to hand it out if someone solves the epitaph. It might also be used in the letters, if they aren't pre-prepared, which would certainly justify why the Krauss & Natsuhi are so freaked out, as they know the ring should be six feet under.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Verg Avesta

One thing that jumped to my mind while thinking about the whole "Fertilizer-sack-Kinzo" thing was that there's one place that could very well store the main ingredient for some Kentucky Fried Kinzo later. And with that I mean the underground storage room, that's supposedly right next to the boiler room, or near it. In other words, Kanon could just waltz into the room, leave the fertilizer sacks in there, and when the time comes, run downstairs and burn the whole body as it's right next door.

.....If we add that he'll fake his own death to hunt the murderer, then wouldn't that basically become episode 1?

I keep forgetting about the underground storage room. I wonder, how many entrances does the mansion have exactly...

Originally Posted by Verg Avesta

Here's another thing. What if Kinzo's ring was actually buried with him? And when Kanon digs up the corpse, he takes the ring, and then proceeds to hand it out if someone solves the epitaph. It might also be used in the letters, if they aren't pre-prepared, which would certainly justify why the Krauss & Natsuhi are so freaked out, as they know the ring should be six feet under.

My first thought was, it obviously can't be buried with Kinzo! The ring is an important symbol of the family, and someone would surely want it a lot. Letters sent "by Kinzo" would be a useful device to create the illusion he is alive, if his handwriting could be forged.

My second thought was, it's obviously buried with Kinzo! The ring is just a symbol, it doesn't make one the head. Kinzo is supposed to disappear without a trace, and the ring would inevitably be with him if he took a walk. Getting caught with it afterwards is getting accused of murder, so it's better to just keep it on his finger.

Now I'm not sure which possibility to pick! The ring being buried sounds quite possible -- forging Kinzo's handwriting is hard, since the children are obviously very familiar with it, and would create solid physical evidence that can be used against Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy, so denying yourself the possibility doesn't change anything.

If the ring was buried with Kinzo, the following possibilities exist for the letters:

1. The letters date back over a year ago, and so does the fake murder plan, which makes it very likely to be Kinzo's direct order and unwritten will. Seeing as how they're written in such a neutral fashion, and other letters signed with Beatrice differ so markedly in style, a Fake Murder Prank Kit hidden somewhere is certainly a possibility.
2. Kanon writes the letters himself and is thus a "Beatrice" even if he doesn't think he is, they are his attempt to disrupt one plot or another -- for example, prevent anyone from solving the epitaph and a Kinzo Bomb.
3. Kanon hands the ring over to "Beatrice" or is a "Beatrice" himself, and is just an agent of Team Beatrice which covers for him while he digs.

I can't say which of the three is more plausible. Well, maybe the second is the least plausible, because the letters seem to be closely connected to the fake murders... ...but are they? Taken literally, they don't threaten anyone with death. The phrase "Everything of the Ushiromiya family" can be taken to mean many things.

There is one thing about Kinzo burning that complicates things a lot, namely, the key to the study that is supposedly found on Kinzo's body.

Only two keys to the study exist, one of them with Natsuhi if we trust Ep5, another with Genji. In the morning of Ep1, Genji gives his key to Natsuhi, so for a period she has the only two keys to the study, then she gives one back to Genji. After Kinzo is discovered, Genji demonstrates a burnt and dirty key to the study together with his own, though he is never shown to actually be taking it from the body. Then, in the discord letter scene, Genji hands over both keys.

This requires that Natsuhi hand over her own key to Genji at some point, which is sort of odd and the whole thing creates a mess.

If Natsuhi is not aware beforehand that Kinzo has been dug up and will be burned, seeing a burned key demonstrated means Genji tricked her -- there could not be a key on the body before it was buried. It is not necessary to muck up the key if the idea is to pretend Genji took it from the burned body -- one could make a show of rubbing it off instead and that would be easier and work the same. The only key that could actually be on the body when it was burned would be Genji's own key and not Natsuhi's. Either key could be mucked up otherwise, but then it wouldn't look very burned.

If Natsuhi is aware of the exhumation, she also has to know who has the ring, if not actually be in control of it, so this pretty much catapults her to the top of the Fake Death Conspiracy, and then she would have to see through the Counter-Fake-Death-Conspiracy in Ep5.

So what the heck is going on in here?

[Leafsnail]

He's going back to the mansion in that scene, right? Which also begs the question of why he took so many sacks of fertilizer he didn't need :P.

He could've also already solved the epitaph, and is bringing back some bars of gold hidden inside fertilizer sacks. Would explain why he has so many when he'd only need one sack to carry Kinzo around in... we know from the second episode that someone had already found the gold before the first twilight.

Kinda torn on "ring is buried with Kinzo" too. The ring would obviously be crucial evidence against Krauss and Natsuhi if found... where do you think they'd hide it if it weren't buried with him?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

He could've also already solved the epitaph, and is bringing back some bars of gold hidden inside fertilizer sacks. Would explain why he has so many when he'd only need one sack to carry Kinzo around in... we know from the second episode that someone had already found the gold before the first twilight.

Gold weighs what, ten times more than the equivalent volume of fertilizer? I'm afraid that wouldn't work and the sacks would tear, too.

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

Kinda torn on "ring is buried with Kinzo" too. The ring would obviously be crucial evidence against Krauss and Natsuhi if found... where do you think they'd hide it if it weren't buried with him?

A ring is very easy to hide by the virtue of being small, and if you aren't planning to need it anytime soon, the number of options is really vast. If they do plan to use it, cutting a hole in a few pages in one of Kinzo's books is all it would take.

[Leafsnail]

It'd probably be more than 10 times, actually :/. Although Rosa carried a gold bar in a sack just fine at the end of episode 2, didn't she?

And even though, logically, it'd be very easy to hide a ring, wouldn't Knox demand we get some kind of clue?

Also, heh, only just noticed the 7 stakes correspond to the 7 parents.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

It'd probably be more than 10 times, actually :/. Although Rosa carried a gold bar in a sack just fine at the end of episode 2, didn't she?

One gold bar, yes. 10kg. Probably the limit of Maria's bag if you ask me, three would not fit and two would tear the handles off after a while.

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

And even though, logically, it'd be very easy to hide a ring, wouldn't Knox demand we get some kind of clue?

Strictly speaking, yes, but it may be considered unimportant enough not to cover - for example, if deducing where the ring is hidden would not allow one to determine who has access to it.

I don't remember any objects mentioned which sound like they could be good specific hiding places for a ring, though. Umineko is generally low on objects, characters speak almost entirely in terms of doors, keys and witness reports about positions. The chess metaphor is somewhat justified in this way, as a chess piece taken by another piece is not offered a chance to fight back.

Though, there's one object I'm wondering why they never investigated. The umbrella Maria got. If anyone remembered ever seeing this umbrella, they could know who's it is...

[Verg Avesta]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Now I'm not sure which possibility to pick! The ring being buried sounds quite possible -- forging Kinzo's handwriting is hard, since the children are obviously very familiar with it, and would create solid physical evidence that can be used against Kinzo Phantom Conspiracy, so denying yourself the possibility doesn't change anything.

To me, the second one sounds more logical. If Krauss and Natsuhi are going to pretend that Kinzo just went to the forest and disappeared, then they would have to get rid of all evidence that would speak against it, so that even if Shannon, Kanon or someone else would rat them out, they could just limbo under it as there would be no evidence against them. And that ring would be a sure-fire way to prove that Kinzo did not, in fact, disappear in the forest. So, if the body was buried, then I'd say it's logical that the ring would go with it, as would all other stuff Kinzo kept on his person.

Originally Posted by Oliver

The letters date back over a year ago, and so does the fake murder plan, which makes it very likely to be Kinzo's direct order and unwritten will. Seeing as how they're written in such a neutral fashion, and other letters signed with Beatrice differ so markedly in style, a Fake Murder Prank Kit hidden somewhere is certainly a possibility.

I think this would be possible for most of the letters. However, the "Letter-Beatrice" of episode 2 has to have the ring in his/her possession, as the letters there are closely related to the events that have just occurred. Of course, in episode 2, after the first one of these kinds of letters has appeared, Kanon disappears completely off the map.........which is kind of suspicious on itself.

Originally Posted by Oliver

Kanon writes the letters himself and is thus a "Beatrice" even if he doesn't think he is, they are his attempt to disrupt one plot or another -- for example, prevent anyone from solving the epitaph and a Kinzo Bomb.

While this is somewhat plausible, it raises another important question. We have the ring, but where are the envelopes, and wax used to seal the letters?

No, wait a minute. Hold that thought.

I just checked episode 2, and the mocking "letter" was not actually a letter at all. Just a sheet of paper. Maybe we should check all the letters left for the survivors and see which ones are actually in envelope, and which ones are not. That way, it could be possible to see if only those letters in envelopes are "neutral" and do not describe the events, and thus could have been written a year ago.

Originally Posted by Oliver

So what the heck is going on in here?

Actually, after checking the boiler scene again, it seems that the whole thing is more than bit strange. Natsuhi and Genji are quite calm, despite seeing the burnt body of Kinzo. Now, think about it for a moment. If they didn't know that Kinzo's body was burnt, and thought it was somewhere safe/buried, then at least Natsuhi would most positively freak out in a major way. And then there's the key-thing you mentioned, which is weird to say at least. Hmm, let's try something like this:

There's actually a "epitaph killing" party, which tries to kill the people according to epitaph, not just fake murders. Kanon was part of it, but decided to betray the group. He dug up Kinzo's corpse, hid it in the underground storageroom, and told about the whole thing to Genji and Natsuhi. The three devised a plan which to use to catch the culprits. The key which Natsuhi used to open Kinzo's study was actually her own, and it had been given to Genji just moments prior. Genji's key was with Kanon, and he burned it at the same time as he burned Kinzo's corpse. After the Second Twilight, Kanon rushed to the boiler room, faked his death along with Kinzo's. This created "discord" among the epitaph killing party, as they had no idea what was going on anymore. Meanwhile, Kanon was free to kill off the epitaph killing party members in a Wargrave-esque manner.

......Okayyyy, maybe a bit too complicated and far-fetched.

But it just shows how weird the whole thing with Kinzo's burnt corpse is.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Verg Avesta

I just checked episode 2, and the mocking "letter" was not actually a letter at all. Just a sheet of paper. Maybe we should check all the letters left for the survivors and see which ones are actually in envelope, and which ones are not. That way, it could be possible to see if only those letters in envelopes are "neutral" and do not describe the events, and thus could have been written a year ago.

The only messages that are invariably sealed with a seal confirmed to be genuine and placed in envelopes are those with a neutral tone. The others are often discovered in questionable circumstances where nobody checks the seal, where they don't show the letter to anyone and read it aloud instead, or are otherwise suspect -- for example, in Ep2, the letter George picks up is not said to be sealed at all. Nobody ever compares the handwriting on multiple letters.

The key in Maria's envelope is sealed, though.

Originally Posted by Verg Avesta

There's actually a "epitaph killing" party, which tries to kill the people according to epitaph, not just fake murders....

*snip*


......Okayyyy, maybe a bit too complicated and far-fetched.

But it just shows how weird the whole thing with Kinzo's burnt corpse is.

Actually, the existence of an "epitaph killing" party is the thing that sounds the most far-fetched in there. Should such a party exist, the plan would not be a bad strategy to fight back without getting caught on your own lies and crimes.

...though, from Ep1, the thought that Kanon probably suspects Shannon is the murderer pops up rather often.

[Jan-Poo]

It has been stored in the study marinating in embalming fluid for purposes unknown, and as the first twilight hits the fan, it is thrown out of the window, dragged to the nearby boiler room exit, and roasted.
It has been properly buried deep in the forest, but is excavated before the typhoon starts for the express purpose of burning it and mixing it in with the fake (or real) murder victims within the following 12 hours or so, after the murders start.

I aslo thought about "Kinzo in the freezer cell" but I guess he wouldn't burn that well and Gohda would definitely notice.

Anyway the idea that Kinzo was in the fertilizer bag is cool under a certain pow but I don't think it's very probable.

I mean there was plenty of time for Kanon to dug up the body beforehand, there's no reason to wait until the whole family arrives on the island just in time to be seen by all of them. I know procrastination is a hard beast to beat but this sounds a little ridiculous.

Plus a body after more than one year should stink a lot, it should be full of worms and other amenities. How the hell Kanon managed to seal it inside a fertilizer bag if he was in a hurry?


As for the ring, Genji in EP1 looks surprised that the ring on Kinzo's hand is missing, he's the first to notice. In EP6 Genji is the first to notice Kinzo's ring on Battler's finger.

It is as if Genji knows where the ring is supposed to be, either that or it's part of the plan that he makes everyone notice about the ring.


As for Natsuhi, Verg Avesta has a point when he says that Natsuhi was too calm when she notices Kinzo's body. But actually she was too calm even after seeing Krauss's body.
If there is a fake murder mystery plan that can explain why Natsuhi is calm about Krauss' death, but Kinzo's burnt body?

This event is actually very convenient for Natsuhi, it solves all of her problems... well actually I don't know if an autopsy wouldn't reveal that Kinzo has been death for more than one year, I guess it depends on how much it burned.

The problem is this doesn't really match with the fake murder scenario. The fake murder plot requires a lot of people involved for some kind of joke or game. But when you see the corpse of Kinzo burned it shouldn't be a joke anymore. People that until that point were only playing a part in a "funny game" should become frantic and panicked as soon as they realize people are dying for real, but we have never witnessed such a change in someone's behavior, right?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I aslo thought about "Kinzo in the freezer cell" but I guess he wouldn't burn that well and Gohda would definitely notice.

There's no mention of a freezer room on the island, unfortunately, even though an industrial restaurant refrigerator may not be sufficient for the needs of the island population.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I mean there was plenty of time for Kanon to dug up the body beforehand, there's no reason to wait until the whole family arrives on the island just in time to be seen by all of them. I know procrastination is a hard beast to beat but this sounds a little ridiculous.

It could have been a miscalculation. Digging up a body that is the proverbial six feet under would take quite a while, and it's slower than just digging a hole of the same size, since you need to be careful past a certain point so as not to damage it, or may be a few centimetres off.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Plus a body after more than one year should stink a lot, it should be full of worms and other amenities. How the hell Kanon managed to seal it inside a fertilizer bag if he was in a hurry?

It shouldn't really stink a lot past a certain specific point. The question of whether that point was reached or not remains, though.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

This event is actually very convenient for Natsuhi, it solves all of her problems... well actually I don't know if an autopsy wouldn't reveal that Kinzo has been death for more than one year, I guess it depends on how much it burned.

If bones remained, methods for determining if the death was recent or remote still exist. It's only convenient for Natsuhi if a murderer can be found that is implicated on all or most other murders, to have the corpse pinned on them.

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

People that until that point were only playing a part in a "funny game" should become frantic and panicked as soon as they realize people are dying for real, but we have never witnessed such a change in someone's behavior, right?

Which kind of speaks out against any fake murder theory, doesn't it?

[Leafsnail]

How could there be fake murders in most of the games anyway? It's pretty difficult to survive having half your head blown off or your face smashed in... and Beatrice said that, for the first episode, No corpses were misidentified, meaning that there can't have been any dummy corpses in there. Similarly, in episode 3 and episode 5, the deaths of the first twilight victims were confirmed...

[Renall]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I aslo thought about "Kinzo in the freezer cell" but I guess he wouldn't burn that well and Gohda would definitely notice.

You say that like Gohda would ever notice anything.

The problem is this doesn't really match with the fake murder scenario. The fake murder plot requires a lot of people involved for some kind of joke or game. But when you see the corpse of Kinzo burned it shouldn't be a joke anymore. People that until that point were only playing a part in a "funny game" should become frantic and panicked as soon as they realize people are dying for real, but we have never witnessed such a change in someone's behavior, right?

Burning Kinzo's body could be part of the plot. Hell, if Kinzo is the one who requested the fake murder plot, he might have asked that his own body be used in one of the twilights, burned in the incinerator to cover up for his absence. Wouldn't put it past him.

But you're right about the other thing. At some point some innocent party should fray. It's possible they are doing it, and it's a more subtle cue. Natsuhi's personality changes quite a bit once she starts taking charge in ep1. She could be just trying to act tough, or someone working against the real killer (such as Kanon or Genji or whoever) has told her not to show weakness and see if it exposes somebody.

In ep2, though, Rosa starts going pretty nuts. I think the text covers this up with the Rosa/Maria relationship, but she's definitely starting to wear down and become paranoid. She eventually kicks Battler out, even though he's been with her the entire time. That's not rational, unless you think there's something really strange going on. A fake death plot you were made aware of the night before that's turned into real murders you think are going to be blamed on you probably qualifies as"something strange."

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

How could there be fake murders in most of the games anyway? It's pretty difficult to survive having half your head blown off or your face smashed in... and Beatrice said that, for the first episode, No corpses were misidentified, meaning that there can't have been any dummy corpses in there. Similarly, in episode 3 and episode 5, the deaths of the first twilight victims were confirmed...

The idea of "fake murders" does not actually involve corpses not being corpses when they are observed by Battler in most cases. The idea is that first the fake murder is set up, then a real murder can occur on the same "victims" making them into proper victims -- because the people playing dead are incapable of defending themselves due to earnestly playing dead, actually incapacitated to do this better, or something of the sort. Since the red confirming their death invariably comes later even than the time of discovery of their bodies, there's no problem whatsoever with the red.

In particular, in Ep3, people can die in the time span between them being discovered and their rooms being opened and before the situation is described to Battler with the red -- one of the adults can just lag behind and kill them. In Ep5, the corpses are missing, but after their death the bodies have not been moved, which the Stakes gleefully announce when picking on Erika. This is only possible if they died after their bodies were "discovered".