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Old 2020-08-03, 12:10   Link #1001
AS Oji-kun
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Next to oto-san
Age: 70
Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo View Post
Maybe Rasmussen...
For privacy reasons, organizations are not permitted to make random-digit-dialing calls to cell phones. That rule forced pollsters like Ras, which used RDD with automated interviewing software (so-called "interactive voice response") to call only landline numbers. As a result his samples were skewed toward older and more Republican voters. They've since supplemented that method with an online panel. Still they only get a C+ at with an average R+1.5 lean.

These days the best polls use lists of registered voters compiled by companies like L2. Using such a list allows the pollster to call cellphones since it is not an RDD method. The New York Times Upshot polls in partnership with Siena College takes this approach which it describes here: I tend to focus my attention on the pollsters at the top of the 538 list like Marist, Monmouth, and ABC/Washington Post.

I document one of the more egregious results of failing to call cellphones here: Pollsters who called only landlines during the 2017 Special Election in Alabama averaged +4.8 for controversial Republican Roy Jones; those who included cell phone users correctly called the race for Democrat Doug Jones, averaging +3.3.

Rasmussen was a big factor in the polling in 2012 because of the frequency of their releases. They've become much less of an issue in the years since, though they are obviously still Trump's favorite pollster.

Update: This tweet comes from the Economist's data guy. They have built a complex model to forecast the election using polls and other data. Here's his list of polls that they ignore:

Our rules for screening pollsters:

If you..

- Use MTurk
- Have a history of publishing bogus numbers so we can't trust you
- Draft biased questionnaires
- Don't publish methodology

we won't use your data. We currently exclude:

American Research Group

Rasmussen isn't on Elliott's list, but

Although Rasmussen polls look fishy and jump around far too much for a normal poll, we haven't been able to verify any underlying issue with the data. We suspect the issue is with the online portion of their interviews but can't be sure. We reserve the right to change our minds.

Last edited by SeijiSensei; 2020-08-03 at 12:45.
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Old 2020-08-05, 01:40   Link #1002
Yu Ominae
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Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Coquitlam, BC, Canada/Quezon City, Philippines
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It was reported that Toshihiko Seki was infected with COVID-19.

His agency's helping with contact tracing to find out how he got it.

Even if we were at odds with each other, I still thank you for training me, Instructor Bowman - Yu Ominae, reflecting on Bowman's death after killing him in Phantom Island
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