AnimeSuki Forums

Register Forum Rules FAQ Members List Social Groups Search Today's Posts Mark Forums Read

Go Back   AnimeSuki Forum > General > News & Politics

Notices

Reply
 
Thread Tools
Old 2018-06-27, 13:27   Link #1
Xellos-_^
Not Enough Sleep
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 42
Justice Anthony M. Kennedy announced that he would retire

Quote:
WASHINGTON — Justice Anthony M. Kennedy announced on Wednesday that he would retire, setting the stage for a furious fight over the future direction of the Supreme Court.
Justice Kennedy, 81, has long been the decisive vote in many closely divided cases. His retirement gives President Trump the opportunity to fundamentally change the course of the Supreme Court.
Thank You Bernie and his supporters and Thank You Jill Stein and all voters who voted green in 2016.
__________________
Xellos-_^ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 16:43   Link #2
Ayato_kanzaki
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jun 2015
So that's now going to be 3 democrats and 6 republicans on the SC? That's some great future ahead for you guys...
Ayato_kanzaki is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 17:24   Link #3
mangamuscle
formerly ogon bat
 
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 47
This could be a blessing in disguise. The thing is that the republicans already have a majority, with the caveat that Kennedy sometimes sided with the less conservative judges. With Trump's nomination the supreme court would be clinched for decades to come since the rest of the conservative judges are relatively young.

So where is the silver lining? Trump can no longer "rally the troops" saying he needs to control the senate to nominate a new judge, so many republicans will probably not vote in the November election and if the economy goes south*, some might even vote for the democrats.

*Today the dow jones started with the rally but is now more than a hundred points in negative territory and since trump has been saying the economy behavior is ALL thanks to him, he will be getting blame sooner rather than later as this negative Spiral continues.
mangamuscle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 17:24   Link #4
Ithekro
The Comet has Come
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Republic of California
Age: 41
They'll probably try to delay any new appointments until the new congress comes in in January.
__________________
Dessler Soto, Banzai!
Ithekro is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 17:59   Link #5
Xellos-_^
Not Enough Sleep
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
They'll probably try to delay any new appointments until the new congress comes in in January.
not a chance, McConnell isn't stupid. He and Trump will rush this through while they still got the votes in the senate. Only chance the a new senate gets a vote on this if the the republican keep the senate majority after the mid-terms
__________________
Xellos-_^ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 18:27   Link #6
ganbaru
books-eater youkai
 
 
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
They'll probably try to delay any new appointments until the new congress comes in in January.
The démocrates might try to do what the republican did to Obama but they can't do it.
__________________
ganbaru is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 18:49   Link #7
GDB
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Age: 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by mangamuscle View Post
So where is the silver lining? Trump can no longer "rally the troops" saying he needs to control the senate to nominate a new judge, so many republicans will probably not vote in the November election and if the economy goes south*, some might even vote for the democrats.
BS. If they're troops he can "rally" for a judge, there's absolutely ZERO chance they vote democrat.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
They'll probably try to delay any new appointments until the new congress comes in in January.
Yes, the people who stole a prior seat will choose to possibly lose the ability to appoint this seat. That's 100% logical and in-line with their past actions.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Ayato_kanzaki View Post
So that's now going to be 3 democrats and 6 republicans on the SC? That's some great future ahead for you guys...
He's a conservative purposely retiring before the GOP possibly loses the ability to name his replacement. All that will happen is his seat goes from sometimes moderate to radical right-wing.
GDB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 19:07   Link #8
mangamuscle
formerly ogon bat
 
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by GDB View Post
BS. If they're troops he can "rally" for a judge, there's absolutely ZERO chance they vote democrat.
People vote with their wallet, that is why Obama won, because Bush tanked the economy. Also, republicans help a lot if they do not vote, you can't win elections if your "base" stays home and this is the first time in many decades I have heard many long time republicans abandoning the GOP, some of them going as far as saying they will vote democrat.
mangamuscle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 19:14   Link #9
Xellos-_^
Not Enough Sleep
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: R'lyeh
Age: 42
Quote:
Originally Posted by mangamuscle View Post
People vote with their wallet, that is why Obama won, because Bush tanked the economy. Also, republicans help a lot if they do not vote, you can't win elections if your "base" stays home and this is the first time in many decades I have heard many long time republicans abandoning the GOP, some of them going as far as saying they will vote democrat.
heard the same thing in 2016

believed it when i see it.

Democrat should concentrate on getting the vote out not trying to convert trump voter. Personally i wouldn't even bother mitigating trump's damage to them. They made their choice, let them live with it.
__________________
Xellos-_^ is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 19:43   Link #10
mangamuscle
formerly ogon bat
 
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by Xellos-_^ View Post
heard the same thing in 2016
Back in 2016 the usa economy was fine, when I said that "they vote with their wallets" I mean to say that whenever the economy is bad, whoever is in office is held responsible and voted out/against.

Quote:
Democrat should concentrate on getting the vote out not trying to convert trump voter.
I any election cycle voter conversion is unlikely at best. But there are two types of so called "trump voters":

1) People that have voted republican most of their life (or at least, have never voted democrat).
2) Independents and disenfranchised democrats. People that thought trump was reagan 2.0 (but, no, it was me, Dio ... I mean Nixon 2.0) and decided to take their chances. Many of them no doubt are regretting their decision and at least will not support the party of trump next november. I expect many "surprises" in many places where "trump won by double digits".
mangamuscle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 19:45   Link #11
Archon_Wing
Plotting....
*Author
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Not here
Age: 34
Send a message via MSN to Archon_Wing
Well, sad to see the GOP's scummy tactics paying off, hopefully it won't be long before they get their comeuppance.

On the other hand it didn't seem like Gorsuch was too bad and was more the less the same as Scalia that he replaced. https://www.businessinsider.de/gorsu...18-4?r=US&IR=T
__________________
Let us start here from Square one. No... from zero!
You do not wish to know anything. You wish only to speak.
That which you know, you ignore, because it is inconvenient.
That which you do not know, you invent.

Avatar/Sig courtesy of TheEroKing
Guild Wars 2 SN: ArchonWing.9480
MyAnimeList || Reviews
Archon_Wing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-27, 22:20   Link #12
mangamuscle
formerly ogon bat
 
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 47
There is also a small possibility that Trump disregards the list of possible candidates to replace kennedy, emboldened by the victory of the candidates he supported and fearful of the muller investigation and chooses to nominate a cronie of him, someone he knows is loyal to him and/or he has some dirt on said person just in case.

Then some GOP senators would have a reason to vote against the nomination. I know, this is a Batman gambit "Will trump be so boneheaded as to nominate someone lacking the minimum credentials?"
mangamuscle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-28, 05:48   Link #13
GDB
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2008
Age: 32
Quote:
Originally Posted by mangamuscle View Post
emboldened by the victory of the candidates he supported
He's supported candidates that won?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mangamuscle View Post
I know, this is a Batman gambit "Will trump be so boneheaded as to nominate someone lacking the minimum credentials?"
He's done it multiple times with his cabinet, but the GOP pushed them through anyway.
GDB is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-28, 09:54   Link #14
Applehell
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Apr 2016
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ayato_kanzaki View Post
So that's now going to be 3 democrats and 6 republicans on the SC? That's some great future ahead for you guys...
Not quite. It will still be 5-4 since Kennedy was Conservative who occasionally sided with Liberals on major social issues. But now it might be a solid 5-4 depending how Robert feels. Despite his leanings he's always wanted to at least the image of SC being impartial.

I think the ACA (which Roberts saved), gay rights and possible Roe v Wade (with carve outs) might be safe on precedent. The Voting Rights Act and Affirmative Action on the other hand...

Frankly the only few things that will delay a SCOTUS pick is Mueller coming out with extremely damaging evidence and conclusions in his report this fall which the GOP can't ignore or something happening to Trump.

Last edited by Applehell; 2018-06-28 at 11:01.
Applehell is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-28, 12:07   Link #15
Archon_Wing
Plotting....
*Author
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2008
Location: Not here
Age: 34
Send a message via MSN to Archon_Wing
Well, I certainly wouldn't miss Affirmative Action, though I don't think they'd go that far to disenfranchise people that blatantly. Though taking action against what they're already doing by gerrymandering something seems to have been supported heavily.

I'd settle for a justice that just makes a deadlock. The court's been steadily increasing its powers over the years especially starting with Nixon and it has led the government being able to justify anything over a few things (commerce clause, etc)
__________________
Let us start here from Square one. No... from zero!
You do not wish to know anything. You wish only to speak.
That which you know, you ignore, because it is inconvenient.
That which you do not know, you invent.

Avatar/Sig courtesy of TheEroKing
Guild Wars 2 SN: ArchonWing.9480
MyAnimeList || Reviews
Archon_Wing is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-28, 12:54   Link #16
mangamuscle
formerly ogon bat
 
 
Join Date: May 2011
Location: Mexico
Age: 47
Quote:
Originally Posted by GDB View Post
He's supported candidates that won?
The people he recntly supported won the GOP candidacy, whether those candidates win in the november election is yet to be seen, but it is plain for everyone to see trump gloating atm.

Quote:
He's done it multiple times with his cabinet, but the GOP pushed them through anyway.
Goursch did have the proper credentials, but back then trump had just been sworn into the white house and he thought he could make comey plead loyalty to him and end the investigation into Russia.

Since then trump has been more eager to flat out ignore suggestions from people who know better, increasingly frustrated over getting no wins to brag about, I am really surprised how little comment his north korea nothing burger (which he sold the public as a win-win situation) has been given:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...how/741015002/
mangamuscle is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-28, 20:27   Link #17
SeijiSensei
AS Oji-kun
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Hokkaido
Age: 69
it's important to remember that the result of Kennedy's departure will be to make John Roberts the "median" or "swing" justice. No matter how right-wing the nominee, Trump can only move the Court as far right as Roberts this time around. I heard Elizabeth Warren say the choice is between Kennedy and the presumably much more conservative future nominee. That makes for good politics, but it's not the right way to think about this choice. The real choice is between a Court with Roberts as the median versus a Court where decisions fall somewhere between the positions of Roberts and the most conservative Democratic-appointee, Stephen Breyer.

Yes, Trump could get another vacancy (RBG being the most likely) and could displace Roberts as the median with someone even more conservative like Gorsuch or Alito.

Roberts has voted more conservatively over time than Kennedy, but Kennedy's votes this year have been pretty similar to Roberts. Here are a couple of good articles on these issues from FiveThirtyEight:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...swing-justice/

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features...s-scotus-term/

The second article gives the pairwise rates of concurrence among the Justices. Not only do Kennedy and Roberts vote together 91% of the time, they also both voted with the Democratic appointees about 70% of the time. In that sense replacing Kennedy with Roberts might not be as big a deal as it seems. However Roberts did not sign on to Kennedy's gay-marriage decision and wrote the main dissent, agreed to by Scalia and Thomas. Roberts is less supportive of abortion rights as well.
SeijiSensei is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-06-30, 14:07   Link #18
Toukairin
Mountain Rescuer
 
 
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: A city with a small mountain in the middle
I'm surprised that no one pointed it out here, but it looks like Kennedy and Trump go way back.

Inside the White House’s Quiet Campaign to Create a Supreme Court Opening (New York Times)

Dunno about you, but this whole retirement thing really stinks something else IMHO.
Toukairin is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-07-08, 00:42   Link #19
monir
cho~ kakkoii
*Moderator
 
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 3rd Planet
Hah. Trump delivers another very important promise to those Evangelical voters. Not only the Dems will have any powers to stop the nomination process, few of the Dem senators from those red states will have no other choice but vote with the Repubs to nominate the eventual Trump pick.
__________________
Kudara nai na! Sig by TheEroKing.
Calling on all Naruto fans, One Piece fans, and Shounen-fans in general... I got two words for you: One-Punch Man!
Executive member of the ASS. Ready to flee at the first sign of trouble.
monir is offline   Reply With Quote
Old 2018-07-08, 11:29   Link #20
Key Board
Carbon
 
Join Date: Nov 2003
We know realize that someone retiring or dying at a certain moment can completely flip check and balances
and the last 3 SCOTUS, and upcoming 4th are picked by Presidents with contested elections
Totally normal country, right
Key Board is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off

Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 20:09.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.8.11
Copyright ©2000 - 2018, vBulletin Solutions Inc.
We use Silk.