2018-10-22, 11:44 | Link #1 |
cho~ kakkoii
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 3rd Planet
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US Midterm Election 2018
The purpose of this thread is to discuss the upcoming election to the best of our abilities. The following have couple of links to FiveThrityEight to show each parties chance at retaining or winning the House and the Senate:
At the moment it appears the Republican Party should control senate while the Democratic Party retake the house. All indication are this cycle of midterm will be the most expensive ever in the history of the United States of America. The above link breaks down the midterm with plenty of information to get you started. Bloomberg also has a pessimst guide to 2018 for those whose depression level reaches critical mass as an election cycle for US approaches closer: https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/p...guide-to-2018/ It is hilariou.... I mean devastating. Notes:---
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2018-10-23, 09:33 | Link #2 |
AS Oji-kun
Join Date: Nov 2006
Age: 74
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I wrote this in August, but it's largely about fundamentals that aren't subject to events.
http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/...n-in-pictures/ Here's an example, the relationship between net Republican retirements from the House and the net Republican margin in seats won. Net Republican retirements reached 22 this year, more than in any other midterm since the New Deal. Since incumbents win over 90 percent of their races, creating a bunch of open Republican seats is a boon to the Democrats. That simple relationship predicts a Republican loss of 39 seats, sixteen more than the 23 needed to flip the House. Coincidentally, the current model at FiveThirtyEight also has a median prediction of D+39 seats. Races for governor don't get nearly the amount of play as the elections for House and Senate do. However this year those gubernatorial elections have a special importance. In 34 states, voters will be choosing the governor who will have the power to veto redistricting plans proposed by their state legislatures after the 2020 Census. The wave of Republican "trifectas" created in 2010, where Republicans won the governorship and both houses of the state legislature, enabled them to draw favorable district lines that will persist until 2022. This time around, Democratic candidates are leading in a number of key states like Florida and Michigan. Should they win, Republican state legislatures will need to compromise on redistricting plans. I estimate that redistricting for some 190 seats is at stake this year. http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/...nders-in-2021/
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Last edited by SeijiSensei; 2018-10-23 at 09:48. |
2018-10-24, 13:12 | Link #3 |
cho~ kakkoii
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 3rd Planet
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Is there anything he would not do to win an election? If there is anyone who deserves to lose an election then no one is better suited than Ted'. The second in line would be the other hypocrite in West Virginia who is running as Democrat. Mind you it was his daughter who raised the price of Epinephrine by several hundred percent while she was the CEO.
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2018-10-24, 15:24 | Link #4 |
Banned
Join Date: Jan 2017
Location: A city with a small mountain in the middle
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I don't know if this is the right place to talk about it or not, but I can say this is now political terrorism, pure and simple.
Should the US somehow get out of this mess in the next 2 or 3 years without too many casualties, I say the next administration needs to redeploy counter-terrorism resources away from the oversaturated surveillance on foreign groups so they can use their expertise against domestic terrorism. Last edited by Toukairin; 2018-10-24 at 15:34. |
2018-10-24, 20:15 | Link #6 |
(ノಠ益ಠ)ノ彡┻━┻
Moderator
Join Date: Mar 2006
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It's not related to the election directly, but I'm okay with some discussion about it for now because it probably will have an impact given that the election is so close.
And yes, it should be labeled as terrorism and assassination attempts. I hope they catch the culprit(s) quickly.
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2018-10-25, 03:58 | Link #8 | |
books-eater youkai
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Betweem wisdom and insanity
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One thing surprised me though, of all the ''enemies of the president'' neither MSNBC nor Robert Muller got targeted, maybe because they don't get called by name as often as the others ?
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2018-10-28, 13:35 | Link #11 |
Carbon
Join Date: Nov 2003
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There's no way it will go down
Trump continuously encourages violence against his critics Trump's response to this is "I Think I've Been Toned Down... I Could Really Tone It Up" Robert Bowers was actually upset because Trump wasn't racist enough but why do you think he had any expectations for Trump to begin with?
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2018-10-29, 05:24 | Link #12 | |
"Senior" "Member"
Join Date: Jan 2012
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I remember when Trump Jr. and others received suspicious white powder by mail, the same people who are outraged by the fake bomb right now where like "haha, this fascist's son deserves this!" and such. Or what about Scalise? Someone from the Republican side was actually SHOT, by someone from the Democratic side, but was it politicized? No. But now Democrats are politicizing anything and everything, while Maxine Waters encourages the forming of mobs, which is totally OK, appearently. But sure, Trump's rhetoric is oh so bad escpacially since people are actually not talking about Trump's recent rhetoric, but are rather going back fishing for stuff he said back in 2015/2016 during the campaign. And since when do we use criminals as the basis for evaluating politicians?
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2018-10-29, 08:28 | Link #13 | |
cho~ kakkoii
Moderator
Join Date: Nov 2003
Location: 3rd Planet
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The following is an ad sponsored by GOP Superpac which aired in Minnesota's first district where the GOP feels the current House seat held byDan Feehan, a Democrat, is vulnerable.
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Aren't you the resident fiscally-conservative guy of this forum? I wanted to ask you about what you thought about the budget passed by GOP congress after raising the debt ceiling and then passing a tax cut that added 1.2 trillion a year in deficit spending. But you disappeared from the other US Politics thread and asking this question in this thread would be off-topic, now wouldn't it? Oh well........
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2018-10-29, 11:54 | Link #15 | |
RUN, YOU FOOLS!
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Formerly Iwakawa base and Chaldea. Now Teyvat, the Astral Express & the Outpost
Age: 44
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2018-10-29, 17:11 | Link #16 | ||
"Senior" "Member"
Join Date: Jan 2012
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IMO just the complete misuse of "fascist" without including any examples of power centralisation is already far too much. Mid-terms in many areas are often the same "fear-of-Trump" messages, just with a "...if Republicans keep the house" attached to it. Now to be fair, the up-side for Democrats in comparison to 2016 is that their candidates simply aren't Hillary Clinton, but also that at least a part of them actually has their own message instead of re-parrotting the overused phrases like "I am not my opponent, who is a Republican and will help fascist Trump do fascisty things", so I am not sure what the outcome is going to be. The current common prediction is that the GOP expands Senate again to more comfortable lead, while they'll narrowly lose control of the house to the Democrats, but it's fairly close, so who knows. In turn Republicans profit from the fact that it's a mass election. Democrats' cooperation with the majority of the Mainstream Media allow them to do easy individual character assassination, but it gets difficult to make it believable if during this election 4 or more women all of a sudden "remember" a previously unknown rape attempt from 30+ years ago, so the Republicans will probably be mostly safe from that and other forms of single-target character assassinations.
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2018-10-29, 17:18 | Link #17 | |
Part-time misanthrope
Join Date: Mar 2007
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Oh for f sake do not remind me of that idiotic conversation with frivolity.
As for Trump's rhetoric, I imagine you wanted to make a point in his defense but 'the other side allegedly did similar things so if we do them now then it's less bad' isn't exactly a convincing argument. It's not like he only said them during his campaign, being in office didn't stop him in the slightest, if anything it emboldened him. Furthermore when the president incites them it's slightly more disturbing although the title has long since lost every shred of decency anyway. Quote:
Last edited by Eisdrache; 2018-10-29 at 17:32. |
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2018-10-29, 17:20 | Link #18 | ||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2008
Age: 38
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2018-10-29, 17:23 | Link #19 | |
Gamilas Falls
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: Republic of California
Age: 46
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Maybe we are over saturated over the last two or more administrations. We've kind of stopped caring what happens to the politician and bureaucrats themselves. Maybe its a function of how people get information and how they tend to screen every call these days so that the sales calls and political calls, just don't reach people anymore (because we are sick of them really). And that might effect elections simply because people are a mix of apathetic and miffed at the government. They both don't really want to go vote, but also want to stick it to government for just being annoying.
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2018-10-29, 18:45 | Link #20 |
"Senior" "Member"
Join Date: Jan 2012
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Whoops, I forgot for a moment that the politics section on this forum has pretty much become an echo-chamber for over a year now. I have no interest to argue alone against 10 people, so I'll leave it with that. I mean it's not like anyone here is at fault, it's just that any center with slightly right leanings up to full on right positions have either quit the politics section here, or stopped being active on this forum alltogether.
Still it's not an isolated issue. Actual political forums actually make AnimeSuki look really good in comparison, with all much worse echo-chambers than AS and ironically the only forum that is both balanced and where political discussion across divides without instant name-calling seems somewhat possible, is another anime forum that I am not going to name here, because I am sure that I would break a rule by doing so.
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