Nanoha Franchise General Discussion Thread

[Kaijo]

Edit: @Keroko: Looks like you posted while I was typing up this post, and your figures got closer (as I point out below). But as I'm at work, I'll have to get to your latest post later. Just wanted to let you know I saw it after I posted this.

Originally Posted by Demi.

I vividly remember the NanoFate scenes that were already cut in the movie, I doubt cutting even more isn't going to at least make me notice the minimal amount of NanoFate scenes present.

Really? You didn't know about the new NanoFate scenes this time around (park reunion, walking on the bridge, etc.) before the A's movie existed. You might have missed Fate being in school, but I doubt you'd have whinged about it. As several have said before, humans don't like things taken from them. But if they never had it in the first place, they'd never miss it.

Will I ever get sick of their dynamic? No. Do I think it is as essential to Fates development post-A's? Negative. I got what I wanted out of this movie and while I will never get tired of them being together, I don't feel it will be as important in future installments. I still stand by my rationale that the two most important aspects to Fate's development in A's were- 1.) Being able to finally move on from that place where she feels useless and trapped with the ghost of her mother. Which leads to 2.) She has confidence in herself, she can move forward, and now she’s comfortable taking Nanoha’s hand, in comforting Nanoha, instead of always waiting for Nanoha to take her hand, instead of feeling unworthy of her.

And yet... that still could have, and would have happened with my changes. She still had her place in the dream eating sequence, but it would have actually better showed that she moved on, because she actually accepted her new family. She recognized that they needed her, as much as she needed him.

And honestly speaking, NanoFate was done with the bridge scene at the last movie. That did a good job showing that they had accepted each other as friends, and knew they'd meet again as friends when Fate returned. That told us everything we needed to know.

I have empathy for all the dying children in Africa, or the many woman in countries who are faced with inequality on a daily basis.

...For this? Not so much. It's an entertainment medium, if you don't like what you're watching, you're free to leave as you please.

I mean empathy for all the other fans. You seem to come across as someone who doesn't give a shit for what other people want. You want your favorite character to have all her focus and development, which is FAR more than anyone else, including the title character herself. And the moment someone suggests developing someone else, if they step slightly on your line, they're wrong.

Tunnel vision. You can't see anything else outside Fate.

Or that it's too early to show, like I've been saying.

Maybe it's too early to show more NanoFate things, too. Maybe it's too early for Fate to face the ghost of her mother. I mean, she knew her mother for far longer than she knew Nanoha. It's only been 6 months. I'd expect it to take much longer. That was your reasoning, right?

We're talking about a girl that showed no animosity to a mother that beat her on a daily basis. That's not really the point. Going from what happened in the first movie to a warmhearted sibling relationship in the span of six months... feels rushed to me, to say the least. They don't even have any reason to be that way, to be honest. It was Lindy's idea to take Fate in. They have no relationship beyond that. And it's not one that I think could have blossomed in between movies.

Going from what happened in the first movie to a warmhearted friendship relationship in the span of six months... feels rushed to me, to say the least. Yeah, they definitely rushed NanoFate. That stuff should have been pushed off to another movie. I see, you're right.

Originally Posted by Keroko

So you're dismissing a calculation based at least partially on factual numbers as irrelevant, but keep throwing the word "cost" with zero factual backing as a reasonable argument?

That's a really hypocritical standpoint.

Because, again, you aren't properly addressing basic economics: cost. 7arcs isn't pulling down 5800 yen per DVD. There is thing called "markup" that distributors and retailers do(and other middle men), in order to make their own money. And the cost you quoted, was just to produce the anime season... not the DVDs, the packaging, the extra materials, etc. Most industries only function on fairly low margins, so let's take another look at your numbers, and make them more realistic.

We'll go with 260.000.000 to 340.000.000 cost to produce StrikerS. We can't be sure of the cost, but it's your numbers so we'll go with it. 203,318 is the number you quoted for # of DVDs sold. But after various groups take their cut and we account for DVD costs, let's say 7arcs only makes 50% off that DVD, so 2900 yen. That means they made 187.206.600 yen, and that has to cover the cost of making the anime season. Oh, oops; looks like they lost money, even considering your lower bound.

And I'm not taking any other possible costs into account.

And its sound stages. And Innocent. And the PSP games. And Dog Days (which has a third season in the works right now).

The games are irrelevant, if we're talking Tsuzuki's time. He can spend an afternoon shooting a basic storyline, if that. But more than likely 7arcs just sold a license to a game company to produce a game. With Dog Days, you have a better point, but that brings up something else... that we are getting a 3rd Dog Days season instead of a 4th Nanoha season. If we presume that Tsuzuki can only do one anime season at a time, then we can conclude that Dog Days is more profitable than Nanoha... meaning Nanoha is even smaller than once thought.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

But our friend Kaijo apparently thinks the cast growth seen in StrikerS (and even in Vivid and Force, presumably) represents a "good number right now". And at the same time wants characters like Chrono and Lindy to also get more focus.

Didn't think you'd try this, TR. You are trying to tie StrikerS into a reason why Chrono and Lindy can't get development in A's. But what I wanted, and you know this, is for Chrono and Lindy to get their development in A's. I'm fine with them moving into the background after that, to make room for new characters. It's apparently people like you who want old characters to still take the spotlight, over characters who haven't gotten development yet.

And given a certain someone's continuing emphasis on "empathy", it's here where I think it's fitting to point out how there's a certain type of person that's hard to feel empathy for. It's the perfectionist person with unrealistic expectations.

Unrealistic? The word "bloat" ius not usually applied until StrikerS, which means we presume S1 and A's still have a decent-sized cast, and apparently it is unrealistic to expect that people get development who are directly, emotionally tied to the plot via a tragic backstory. You know, you agreed with my changes before (Chrono/Fate dream eater), so I presume you thought they were realistic. Are you going back on that now?

Originally Posted by Archon_Wing

I was just thinking about it compared to what they can crank out manga at, which seems to be their bread and butter.

Are you seriously saying the shojo genre doesn't matter?

Shonen, shows for boys, can have anime seasons which don't depend on the sale of merch. They are that successful. And we're talking mahou shojou, not just plain shojou, which is a different beast. Mahou shojou shows NEED merch to survive.

My point is that you're not taking in account of what actually happens in the industry and thus were making, frankly absurd comparisons. I usually respect your arguments even if I don't agree, but in this case you just haven't done the proper research on the specific industry. While applying basic economic principles is sound, it's far too broad of a brush to really make any specific assessment.

My argument: "Based on well-established rules of economics, Cost, Revenue, and Profits would affect a business's decisions as to what to sell, because they want to make a profit."

The response: "Maybe, but there could be a whole load of other reasons. You don't know! Of course, we don't know either, but we should just toss basic understanding of economics because I'm sure that, somehow, it could be wrong. Even though we don't know how yet."

That is what I am hearing. Sure, there could be other reasons. But until I hear otherwise, I presume that the wheels of the economy keep turning as normal. I can't prove a negative, so if someone wants to prove that there are other reasons, outside of the normal, then it is up to an individual to present evidence for that. Until then, the sun will keep rising in the east, until someone else can prove it will come up in the west tomorrow.

[Sunder the Gold]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Good answer.

I asked you the questions that I did for this reason...

But our friend Kaijo apparently thinks...

Wait, did you just use me as a rhetorical weapon in your on-going battle with Kaijo? I hope not, because that would be very disrespectful.

Were you replying to me, or using your reply to talk to Kaijo?

the cast growth seen in StrikerS (and even in Vivid and Force, presumably) represents a "good number right now".

At least Vivid is fine. It's a completely different generation and scene within the greater setting. Well, at least so long as the story is about a children's fighting tournament and other things that the TSAB doesn't need to worry about. When the adults need to step in, most of the children need to step out.

(A bigger problem is the "Belkan emperor bloat" and the shoddy world-building.)

I also haven't paid strict attention to Kaijo's own words on this subject, so I'll wait until I do before I say much more. I will say that I agree with Keroko that sloppy writing is at least half of the problem.

(Well, both problems seem to be the same one, really. Tight writing would prevent or cut out extraneous characters, and introducing extraneous characters is --and leads to-- sloppy writing.)

And at the same time wants characters like Chrono and Lindy to also get more focus.

Again, I haven't been paying strict attention to his own words, so I could be wrong... But isn't he saying that Chrono and Lindy should have gotten more development in the second movie, which is completely seperate from StrikerS? Or perhaps he's talking about the possibilities of the third movie.

As to StrikerS, Lindy was retired and Chrono was commanding a whole fleet, so neither of them had much to do with Jail's mostly intra-planetary case on Midchilda. Rather than developing them, StrikerS needed to develop Erio and Caro.

(Lindy might have gotten a scene as their official guardian and unofficial grandmother. Amy and her kids might have gotten a scene with Erio and Caro. In fact, get 'em all at once with a single extended Hallahoun family gathering/meal.)

Originally Posted by Keroko

There's anime out there with a cast as big as StrikerS if not bigger that still managed to develop each character properly, but StrikerS wasted a good half of its series by waiting too long with introducing the Numbers. If they had introduced the numbers as the main antagonists from the first episode instead of the faceless drones, there would have been much more time to develop them.

Yep.

Fate needed some of that screentime! I wanted Fate Holmes hot on the trail of Jail Moriarty. Instead, she does basically nothing when there are no drones to blow up, except be cute with Nanoha and Vivio or be sexy in a party dress.

[Nanya01]

Hey! That sexy party dress let us have Yuuno in StrikerS! I'm willing to accept that at least! XD

[aers]

Kaijo -

Nanoha was a late-night otaku show. Its not a kids mahou shoujo designed to sell merch, its not a kids shonen advertising a manga, these things are not relevant at all.

22k sales per volume is an absolutely fantastic number for a late night otaku show. The vast majority (90%+) sell less than 10k, and a significant number of them dont even hit 5k. With your argument you're claiming that late night anime is all made at a loss; the fact that it continues to exist means you're wrong. The first season of Nanoha sold 5k and that was enough to get a second season (which sold 10k).

Meanwhile there are shows that sell 30k+ and don't get sequels. There are shows that sell 1k and get sequels. There could be a million different reasons Nanoha doesn't have another TV series, but your argument that its because it wouldn't make money is completely absurd.

[Demi.]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Really? You didn't know about the new NanoFate scenes this time around (park reunion, walking on the bridge, etc.) before the A's movie existed. You might have missed Fate being in school, but I doubt you'd have whinged about it. As several have said before, humans don't like things taken from them. But if they never had it in the first place, they'd never miss it.

True, I wouldn't have known about scenes that never existed in the first place. Yet removing those new scenes without replacing them with older scenes would have made the NanoFate dynamic seem pretty barren.

And yet... that still could have, and would have happened with my changes. She still had her place in the dream eating sequence, but it would have actually better showed that she moved on, because she actually accepted her new family. She recognized that they needed her, as much as she needed him.

Whether or not it would have had sufficient focus to not feel rushed is the issue. There is nothing worse than a could have been great scene that was ruined due to inadequate focus.

That aside, I'm sorry, I just don't see the whole "need" aspect of the Chrono/Fate dynamic. Just because they're siblings due to circumstance, that doesn't mean they have to be close to each other. But hey, I agree with Lindy. She seems like a great parent and is beneficial to Fates development.

And honestly speaking, NanoFate was done with the bridge scene at the last movie. That did a good job showing that they had accepted each other as friends, and knew they'd meet again as friends when Fate returned. That told us everything we needed to know.

Done? That's when it first blossomed. They finally got to be friends, and then were seperated for 6 long months. After all that they went through together, they can finally be together as partners, rather than rivals or enemies. There was no NanoFate dynamic in the first season, only a lead up to it.

I mean empathy for all the other fans. You seem to come across as someone who doesn't give a shit for what other people want. You want your favorite character to have all her focus and development, which is FAR more than anyone else, including the title character herself. And the moment someone suggests developing someone else, if they step slightly on your line, they're wrong.

You can suggest development for whoever you want, but if it's less appealing to me, then why should I go out of my way to accept it? Sure, if it's animated I won't whine or gripe about it; I'm merely stating what I prefer. And placing Fate scenes on the chopping block is far removed from what I promote.

And I won't deny that Fate has the most development, although I disagree she has the most focus. That goes to Nanoha.

Maybe it's too early to show more NanoFate things, too. Maybe it's too early for Fate to face the ghost of her mother. I mean, she knew her mother for far longer than she knew Nanoha. It's only been 6 months. I'd expect it to take much longer. That was your reasoning, right?

Going from what happened in the first movie to a warmhearted friendship relationship in the span of six months... feels rushed to me, to say the least. Yeah, they definitely rushed NanoFate. That stuff should have been pushed off to another movie. I see, you're right.

6 months is not too short in general, it is too short for Chrono/Fate. NanoFate on the other hand is a completely different circumstance. Nanoha went out of her way to save Fate. In-fact, the only one in the series who actually did. The rest were plotting the best way to bring her down--Dead or alive.

Although I will give props to Yuuno for aiding Nanoha in her endeavors.

[Keroko]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Are you sure? I honestly have a hard time thinking of a two cour anime show with more characters of note than what StrikerS had. ...Maybe Shana season 3? But at least half or more of them were already well-developed going into Shana season 3.

Gurren Lagann, for one. That also had a cast of 30-something people. All of them new, too.

Originally Posted by Sheba

Yeah, I wonder how many in this subforum have watched this sprawling epic casting more characters than the japanese alphabet.

Then there's this beast.

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Edit: @Keroko: Looks like you posted while I was typing up this post, and your figures got closer (as I point out below). But as I'm at work, I'll have to get to your latest post later. Just wanted to let you know I saw it after I posted this.

Right, I'll wait for a proper reply to that one then. I just want to add one thing:

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Because, again, you aren't properly addressing basic economics:

Neither are you. You don't even give vague estimates, merely your opinion and arguments on why your opinion is right... based on your opinion.

That's politics 101, not economics 101.

Originally Posted by Kaijo

The games are irrelevant, if we're talking Tsuzuki's time. He can spend an afternoon shooting a basic storyline, if that. But more than likely 7arcs just sold a license to a game company to produce a game. With Dog Days, you have a better point, but that brings up something else... that we are getting a 3rd Dog Days season instead of a 4th Nanoha season. If we presume that Tsuzuki can only do one anime season at a time, then we can conclude that Dog Days is more profitable than Nanoha... meaning Nanoha is even smaller than once thought.

Actually, Tsuzuki is listed as the writer for both games. And if you are honestly saying it will take "an afternoon" to come up with a basic storyline (nevermind writing the whole thing. Which he did.) you have just shown you know nothing about pre-production. These are processes that can take months and are subject to change during the entire production process right down to the last days before the deadline. Stuff like this isn't done on a whim, you know.

Now as for Dog Days, you are jumping to conclusions. Again. And you outright ignore backing up your conjecture. Again.

But even that aside, my own theory that they're going for the idea of "not putting all their eggs in one basket." Studios rarely rely solely on one franchise, and Nanoha is a more stable franchise than Dog Days. It has several running manga, tons of well-selling merchandise and another movie in the making. It doesn't need another anime to remain profitable. Dog Days on the other hand? It had one manga, and merchandise for it is only just beginning to make steam. If they get it as popular as Nanoha, they now have two franchises to make money off.

Originally Posted by Kaijo

My argument: "Based on well-established rules of economics, Cost, Revenue, and Profits would affect a business's decisions as to what to sell, because they want to make a profit."

Actually, your opinion is more accurately summarized as "There is no possible way a company wouldn't make another Nanoha season if it wasn't profitable. Therefore, it cannot be profitable."

Which is.... wrong, jumping to conclusions and without any proper evidence to support the claim. In fact, every single piece of evidence that does show up shows you are wrong.

[Sunder the Gold]

Originally Posted by Nanya01

Hey! That sexy party dress let us have Yuuno in StrikerS! I'm willing to accept that at least! XD

The correlation was not causation.

Also, something is wrong when Yuuno is shortchanged in the season and we STILL see more of his job than Fate's.

[Kaijo]

Right, rather than directly reply to posts, as per my original plan, I'm going to make this short and simple.

You're right in that I am offering my opinion. I never hid that fact. It was my opinion that Cost - Revenue = Profit, and to proceed on that basis as my the base of my rationale. And you are also pushing your opinion. But there is one way you can settle this:

Give me the exact numbers, the financial statements, for S1, A's and StrikerS (or at least the latter). Because without those, you are using just as much guesswork. As Keroko's own links show, any particular anime show has it's own mix, which can drastically affect the cost of a show. You can't logically say I'm wrong until you have those. Until then, all you have is a guess as well. If guesses are so bad (as you feel mine are), then perhaps you should stop making them, too.

Also note one thing, one of the last paragraphs of Keroko's second link: the crash of 2007. When did Nanoha come out? 2007. I'd be willing to bet that StrikerS relative lack of profit spooked them, because it was at that time that people stopped buying so many. They may have pumped tons more money into StrikerS, and despite the increased sales, it was nowhere near their projection for the expected REvenue that they expected. Thus, even if it turned a little profit and they covered costs, it scared them enough to consider putting another season on hold. Perhaps when the anime DVD market stablizes more, and they can make accurate projections that will show that a 4th season will make money if they assign X amount as a budget to produce it. Currently, as I've said several times, apparently they don't think it is economically viable to do so.

Aers, 22k may be a better number than 10k, but that doesn't mean much if the show cost twice as much to produce. The profit margin may be even thinner or nonexistent.

I can (and have) admit there might be other reasons (I came up with a few others on my own). Absent real hard data, can't you at least admit that it is possible that 7arcs has come to a conclusion that a 4th season isn't economically viable right now?

Reply to Demi will come later.

[Keroko]

"I don't have to show proof but I will demand everyone else show me exact numbers or I will casually dismiss it."

No. Enough. I gave you plenty of numbers Kaijo. Your turn. Back up this ridiculous claim of yours.

[Kaijo]

Numbers which can be wildly inaccurate for the specific instance we are looking at, per your own links.

Revenue - Costs = Profit. If you think this equation is ridiculous, then we can't have a discussion. If you think you can casually dismiss why a company is business, then we can't have a discussion.

I'm not asking you to say I'm right. All I'm asking is for you to say that it is possible. I already admitted your explanation could be possible. Can you be fair and do the same?

[Keroko]

I already did. Repeatedly. But you don't get to demand numbers and then refuse to given them yourself, Kaijo. You claim StrikerS was vastly more expensive than the average anime. Find evidence.

[Kaijo]

My claim was that 7arcs most likely felt a 4th season of Nanoha was not economically viable. At least right now. The only numbers I would demand, would be the actual Revenue/Cost numbers, which still haven't been produced.

It's fine if you want to throw out guesses; I did the same. That's all we can really do at this point.

But if you admit that it is possible that 7arcs believes a 4th season may not be economically, then I'm not sure what the issue is. Seems to me we have met in the middle, with you agreeing that my stance has merit, and me agreeing that your stance has merit. I'm not sure what else you want to argue about.

[Keroko]

Because based on the numbers we know and historical precedent in the industry, your claim is the less likely of the ones made, yet you keep claiming it is the most likely one without backing it up. And it's that later part, that spitting in the face of evidence that without presenting your own that annoys me.

[Kaijo]

Originally Posted by Keroko

Frankly? That's what I wanted at first too. Then you went and claimed your theories to be far more likely while refusing to back them up and when people started to pile up more and more evidence that shot holes in your theory, you started to demand more numbers, yet provided none yourself. Now I just want you to stop claiming some sort of high-ground that other people have to produce exact numbers in order for their theories to be as valid as yours while you provide nothing.

We have a good understanding of gravity and physics. Thus, when I tell you that a friend jumped off the roof of my house and broke his leg when he landed, there is no need for me to prove anything. You understand implicitly the nature of gravity and that is a normal outcome.

Now, if I tell my friend jumped off the roof and flew into the sky, you'd understandably want proof, because that just doesn't happen normally. The burden of proof would be on me to prove that something out of the ordinary happened.

Economics is not as hard of a science as physics is, but there are well-known and understood concepts. Thus, someone going from those base concepts doesn't need to provide proof; they are going from what is normal. The burden of proof would lie with those trying to provide a theory that is outside the normal outcome. That is why I don't see a need for me to provide much of anything, because I can't prove a negative. Sure, there are possible explanations, just as there are possible exlanations for my flying friend (rocket pack, glider, etc). But they are out of the normal, and would require proof, unless someone just wanted to trust me on faith alone.

For me, I tend to go with established, well-documented norms, both in physics and economics. If someone wants to believe something else, fine. But I tend to reserve belief until shown otherwise, although I can acknowledge possibilities.

By the way, other proof would be statements from Tsuzuki or 7arcs themselves, as to what is holding up a possible 4th season. If anyone is going to Japan, or finds him at a con, let me know how he answers. If he says something like he'd like to and 7arcs would like to, but his schedule is full at the moment, then so be it.

Originally Posted by Demi.

True, I wouldn't have known about scenes that never existed in the first place. Yet removing those new scenes without replacing them with older scenes would have made the NanoFate dynamic seem pretty barren.

You might have missed it, but in my reply to Triple_R as far as what I would replace those scenes with, is a hospital scene where Nanoha and Fate wake up together in beds next to each other. That would have the Fate regret that she couldn't save Nanoha, and the Nanoha encouraging Fate, somewhat like the A's series, where Chrono and Fate visit Nanoha (and then Chrono leaves with the doctor).

I am not totally immune to the NanoFate dynamic. Indeed, I do like their friendship. I just have higher priorities for plot elements. And as much as Fate's and the NanoFate development in in the A's series that I did like, I recognize it has as much place as Nanoha's feelings toward Arisa and Suzuka, or Yuuno's feelings about moving into the library in an A's movie. In other words: not much. If we have time to fit those things, great. If not, they get cut totally, or at least reduced.

Whether or not it would have had sufficient focus to not feel rushed is the issue. There is nothing worse than a could have been great scene that was ruined due to inadequate focus.

Plenty of people felt other things in the movie felt rushed. The Nanoha/Vita fight, for instance. Welcome to the club.

That aside, I'm sorry, I just don't see the whole "need" aspect of the Chrono/Fate dynamic. Just because they're siblings due to circumstance, that doesn't mean they have to be close to each other. But hey, I agree with Lindy. She seems like a great parent and is beneficial to Fates development.

Mostly because Chrono is an emotionally closed person, and we've never seen their relationship explored. To us, he's just "that person" as far as Far may know, no closer to her than Alex or Randy. It's an unexplored avenue that had great development potential for *both* of them. Think of it as the difference between getting rehashed material, and getting new stuff. With this third movie, we're getting something new. Wouldn't you rather have all three movies be new, rather than two rehashed ones?

Done? That's when it first blossomed. They finally got to be friends, and then were seperated for 6 long months. After all that they went through together, they can finally be together as partners, rather than rivals or enemies. There was no NanoFate dynamic in the first season, only a lead up to it.

Yup. They were friends. They're still friends. They've developed into friends. In the NanoFate dynamic, Nanoha doesn't develop, though; it's all Fate, which I'll admit is development for her.

You can suggest development for whoever you want, but if it's less appealing to me, then why should I go out of my way to accept it? Sure, if it's animated I won't whine or gripe about it; I'm merely stating what I prefer. And placing Fate scenes on the chopping block is far removed from what I promote.

Even if you get new Fate scenes in response? I think we've tread over this ground, but it really seems like you prefer what is old and safe, rather than what is new. And hey, that is understandable. Humans fear the "new" because it is change. They fear that change, and thus that is why they like the status quo. The "new" could be bad, after all. So let's not take that leap and stay safe in what we know.

And I won't deny that Fate has the most development, although I disagree she has the most focus. That goes to Nanoha.

And we want development. We don't care too much about focus. Chrono can have 10 m inutes of screentime and focus, as long as he's developed in that time.

6 months is not too short in general, it is too short for Chrono/Fate. NanoFate on the other hand is a completely different circumstance. Nanoha went out of her way to save Fate. In-fact, the only one in the series who actually did. The rest were plotting the best way to bring her down--Dead or alive.

Although I will give props to Yuuno for aiding Nanoha in her endeavors.

So, 7 months is too short for relationship to be explored, yet simultaneously just long enough for another realationship to develop... despite the fact that Fate and Chrono would have been around each other for nearly those entire 7 months.

Look, in the series, adoption was only brought up in A's. Fate's relationship with Lindy was better explored there, in the subtle way she was still kinda nervous around Lindy and couldn't really call her mom yet. The idea was still new to her. Seeing her reaction to Lindy was good development in that area.

In the movie, she has 7 months to get used to the idea. And you're expecting that Fate is going to be cold to Chrono? To basically ignore him?

[Nanya01]

Whether or not it would have had sufficient focus to not feel rushed is the issue. There is nothing worse than a could have been great scene that was ruined due to inadequate focus.

As Kaijo says, welcome to the club. Nanoha/Vita's first fight, the Nanoha vs Reinforce fight, Signum vs Fate 2nd fight, Arf vs Zafira, any of them could have been great, but didn't get enough focus.

[Keroko]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Economics is not as hard of a science as physics is, but there are well-known and understood concepts. Thus, someone going from those base concepts doesn't need to provide proof; they are going from what is normal. The burden of proof would lie with those trying to provide a theory that is outside the normal outcome. That is why I don't see a need for me to provide much of anything, because I can't prove a negative.

I'm not buying it. You reduce economics to it's base cores, and even then eliminate the core principles that do not fit your point of view to pick only the one that lets your argument come out the best. You ignore the legions of other economic concepts (incentives, opportunity cost, productive resources, business cycles the list goes on) to just focus on the profit/loss ratio to hammer an argument home without backing it up.

So, I will ask again. Before you started shifting goal-posts, you made a claim that StrikerS somehow wasn't profitable. In fact, you claimed it was a financial loss and that this is the reason for no season 4. Can you back that up?

Because let me make this clear, I at no point denied economics wasn't at the center of the decision to not make season 4 (even "we're busy" is an economic decision, see "productive resources"). The only claims I have from the start of this debate tried to disprove was that StrikerS was a financial loss and that this is the reason for no S4.

[Archon_Wing]

Okay. So season 1 went for $45 on dvd before it was discontinued which was consistent with my previous Amazon searches of it in the past. Feel free to find a lower price for me. So that's 13 episodes for $45@ $3.45 per episode. I'm being generous, since about half of it is watchable anyways. But okay, I'll throw my own bias away.


Let's check Amazon for other things I could buy
$54-- Clannad on Bluray, if you went dvd you could buy both seasons for 60 (50 eps), which I did. ($0.9 per episode, $2 per bluray episode)
$19 Kanon 2006 (24 episodes) ($0.79 per episode)
$38 Bluray for Haruhi (13) ($2.92 per episode.
$29 Both Eva Rebuild Movies (which I would not want to)
$34 True Tears (13 episodes) ($2.61 per episode)
$31 Ghost in the Shell: SAC (26 episodes) ($1.20 per episode)
$41 Angel Beats (Blu-ray, 13 episodes) ($3.15 per episode)


Except for Rebuild 2.0, I would definitely buy any of these before I'd even think of paying that much for season 1 of Nanoha, sadly. Even if it were the same price, I still don't think it'd be worth it. A's would be more competitive, but that's questionable. Unless one thinks DVD quality season 1 can match the blurays for some of these, lol. And unless you've seen the series, you're not going to skip straight to A's. Not being able to get past season 1 is the great barrier.

Me thinks that played a role in it bombing.

And these are my thoughts. What about someone that doesn't even know anything about Nanoha?

[Reckoner]

@Kaijo

Most people are simply going off what we have learned form the industry generally. No one, including you, has the exact financial statements for 7arcs. What we do know is that most anime titles break even at about 3k sales per volume (Strikers didn't even have the highest budget). Strikers sold 22k, and and thus we have good reason to believe that 7arcs more than profited from it. The idea that strikers wasn't profitable and that's why nanoha doesn't get another tv anime is just simply not believable.

[Archon_Wing]

Originally Posted by Kaijo

Shonen, shows for boys, can have anime seasons which don't depend on the sale of merch. They are that successful. And we're talking mahou shojou, not just plain shojou, which is a different beast. Mahou shojou shows NEED merch to survive.

Your point was that little girls don't matter. Well, they do.

My argument: "Based on well-established rules of economics, Cost, Revenue, and Profits would affect a business's decisions as to what to sell, because they want to make a profit."

The response: "Maybe, but there could be a whole load of other reasons. You don't know! Of course, we don't know either, but we should just toss basic understanding of economics because I'm sure that, somehow, it could be wrong. Even though we don't know how yet."

That is what I am hearing. Sure, there could be other reasons. But until I hear otherwise, I presume that the wheels of the economy keep turning as normal. I can't prove a negative, so if someone wants to prove that there are other reasons, outside of the normal, then it is up to an individual to present evidence for that. Until then, the sun will keep rising in the east, until someone else can prove it will come up in the west tomorrow.

No. Really no. I can't let this slide.

Try writing a paper extrapolating general economic principles onto a specific country and see how far you get before they just throw it away in the trash. "Well, I know basic economic theory, so therefore... this should apply as well"

You're essentially shifting the burden of proof on other people to prove a negative while making your own assertion. While lack of proof isn't proof of lack, it also doesn't increase its inherent validity. This is an appeal to ignorance, regardless if you consider your own assertion itself to be self-evident or not. And that in itself is circular reasoning.

In other words, you cannot make a statement and say "prove me wrong".

Meanwhile, I have provided concrete occurrences of what actually happens in the industry--factors that make the game work the way it has. This is why I say that you need actual knowledge of the topic at hand, because if you seriously think a simplified theoretical system applies to everything, I'm afraid you've delved into the truly impossible.

Though Keroko has provided actual facts, so... heh.

[Kaijo]

Originally Posted by Keroko

I'm not buying it. You reduce economics to it's base cores, and even then eliminate the core principles that do not fit your point of view to pick only the one that lets your argument come out the best. You ignore the legions of other economic concepts (incentives, opportunity cost, productive resources, business cycles the list goes on) to just focus on the profit/loss ratio to hammer an argument home without backing it up.

So, I will ask again. Before you started shifting goal-posts, you made a claim that StrikerS somehow wasn't profitable. In fact, you claimed it was a financial loss and that this is the reason for no season 4. Can you back that up?

Because let me make this clear, I at no point denied economics wasn't at the center of the decision to not make season 4 (even "we're busy" is an economic decision, see "productive resources"). The only claims I have from the start of this debate tried to disprove was that StrikerS was a financial loss and that this is the reason for no S4.

You don't get much more core than Revenue, Cost, and Profit. Things like opportunity costs and productive resources would go under Costs; it's just a matter of breaking down the categories. My major point was that we didn't know what all these other costs were, so putting up numbers was generally not very useful. We can use numbers to kinda explain our viewpoint, which we both kinda did, but neither of us knows for sure.

And yes, my viewpoint was that StrikerS was either a loss, or didn't churn much Profit (different than Revenue), the latter of which I began to consider later. If it was very profitable, then churning out a 4th series would have been a no brainer. In a more recent post, I theorized that, due to the anime dvd crash of 2007, their actual sales didn't match up to their projected sales(much lower because anime DVD sales were dropping through the floor all around), and it may have spooked them. At least, according to one of your links.

Sometimes they wait a year or two between putting out new seasons, but it has been just about 6 years now since StrikerS came out. If they were gonna do a 4th, they would have by now.

Let's take a look at it from the other angle. Consider the first season, which only sold about half of what A's did, if I remember from the DVD sales numbers quoted before. If it did so poorly compared to A's, why did they do a second season? It shouldn't have made financial sense... unless the costs associated from S1 were dramatically lower which meant the first season was profitable. They most likely gauged interest in a second season and determined it was financially viable to do. But not only that, they increased the budget for A's, and got an increase in sales.

But how much profit? Obviously it made some, since they went on with an even bigger budget for StrikerS. Perhaps by this time, many people were getting their fingers in the pie. StrikerS did see a large increase in VA's, which also costs extra money. They may have realized they overreached with their budget when their revenue barely covered their costs. And along comes Tsuzuki with plots for Vivid and Force that have even more VA's and needed production costs if it were made an anime, and thus gone said, "Umm, we're gonna have to make that a manga. You nearly broke our bank last time."

Originally Posted by Reckoner

@Kaijo

Most people are simply going off what we have learned form the industry generally. No one, including you, has the exact financial statements for 7arcs. What we do know is that most anime titles break even at about 3k sales per volume (Strikers didn't even have the highest budget). Strikers sold 22k, and and thus we have good reason to believe that 7arcs more than profited from it. The idea that strikers wasn't profitable and that's why nanoha doesn't get another tv anime is just simply not believable.

My point exactly: we don't have actual data. So, until we do, it's all guesswork. You don't have to believe my reasoning. I'm only stating what it would take to convince me. If you don't care about convincing me, then it shouldn't matter.

Originally Posted by Archon_Wing

Your point was that little girls don't matter. Well, they do.

How so? Boys can support an anime purely on their own. Girls can't. This is why shonen is bigger than shojuo in Japan, in general. Seinen and josei are even less popular, being rarely made into an anime, usually confined to manga. If you are going to make a series, then, appealing to boys (or males in general) is your best bet.

Try writing a paper extrapolating general economic principles onto a specific country and see how far you get before they just throw it away in the trash. "Well, I know basic economic theory, so therefore... this should apply as well"

Try running a business without properly accounting for costs and revenue. Without an asset/liability sheet. "It costs me $5 to make this widget, but I can sell tons of them for $4. I'll make up the difference in volume. Look at how many I'm selling!"

ou're essentially shifting the burden of proof on other people to prove a negative while making your own assertion. While lack of proof isn't proof of lack, it also doesn't increase its inherent validity. This is an appeal to ignorance, regardless if you consider your own assertion itself to be self-evident or not. And that in itself is circular reasoning.

As I said above, this is strictly for me. I go with general scientific sentiment until proven otherwise. That's how science works.

In other words, you cannot make a statement and say "prove me wrong". [/quote]

If you jump off a cliff, you'll fall down to the bottom. Prove me wrong. Because I happen to believe that's how things normally work. Of course, if you don't care about changing my mind, that's perfectly fine. I am not seeking to convince anyone, just laying out my reasons for why I believe the way I do.

Meanwhile, I have provided concrete occurrences of what actually happens in the industry--factors that make the game work the way it has.

And yet, you'd probably admit that factors vary wildly from one anime to another, right? That costs are not a static number? Because that is concrete info from one of Keroko's links, too.