[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by Ssol

If she did borrow powers from Lambda then who knows what she is capable of. We know almost nothing that can be confirmed about the "witch of certainty" Lambdadelta. Really, WHO THE HELL IS SHE?

Doesn't that extra tip suggest that she was the one who spurred Takano on to do all those horrible things in Higurashi?

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Ssol

What makes you the absolute authority on what powers the witches have?
What if Beatrice borrowed the power from Lamdadelta to choose 4 kakera for the purpose of trapping Bernkastel but instead she used that power to show Battler the truth?
If she did borrow powers from Lambda then who knows what she is capable of. We know almost nothing that can be confirmed about the "witch of certainty" Lambdadelta. Really, WHO THE HELL IS SHE?

She's 34-tan of course ;)

Well Lambda is described as a witch who can make any one thing definietly happen, as we know. However it all depends on the wording of the wish she grants.

Example: If you said you wanted to earn 10000 dollars then Lambda would grant it. However, if you waver in your will to earn that money then her certainty no longer works.

So if Beatrice wanted Battler to reveal the truth then Lambda's power could make it happen. But if his will wavered to reveal that truth then the certainty no longer works. Something like that is Lambda's power. There's also the power of being able to cause certain death to any target apparently. And in EP 3 she did threaten Beato, saying that she would turn her back into a human and throw her into a miserable world.

[chronotrig]

Ah, thank you.

Spoiler for size:

- It is impossible for someone to survive in the middle of an ocean during a typhoon, especially in the cold waters of October
Erika arrived on the island before the typhoon. The "Erika" on the boat was either a fake or a person whose name Erika borrowed. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so such measures are not unreasonable.
- It was impossible for Erika to predict the murders with such a certainty
Erika did not predict the murders. She tried to commit them and frame Battler, but the bodies were removed before she got there. By framing Battler, she would become the sole discoverer of the gold. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so such measures are not unreasonable.
- It was impossible for Erika to refute the existence of secret passages
We're talking game board here, right? It's possible for anyone to say that passages don't exist. That doesn't mean they're right or wrong.
- It was impossible for Eva to accept the plan of a perfect stranger
Furudo Erika is after the 10 tons of gold. Since she has no apparent connection to the family, this is not at all unbelievable. All Eva really wants is to inherit the title. They are the perfect team after Erika is named as one of the discoverers.
- It was impossible for Erika to claim so seriously that she's a detective unless she's completely insane.
Furudo Erika is trying to frame Battler and take the credit for catching him. If so, it would be more strange for her not to take the role of detective.
- It is impossible for a person to climb barehanded to the second floor of an house while it is raining.
Without knowledge of the details of the guesthouse's structure, you cannot prove this. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so people taking extreme measures cannot be used as a counter-argument except for physical impossibility or extreme improbability. Also, depending on the time she did this, she may have had a lot of time at her disposal.
- there doesn't seem to be a realistic time span when Erika could have placed all those seals around the guesthouse.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe there's a limit on the start time for this. In other words, she could have sealed the windows before leaving with Battler for the Golden Land. If she was trying to frame Battler, this is perfectly reasonable.
- It is impossible that the whole Ushiromiya family let a perfect stranger boss around
Some of those scenes are obviously falsehoods, or else full meta world scenes. However, it's possible that Erika has some pull with certain members of the family. A connection with Eva has already been proposed. By playing the siblings off each other, she could probably get some freedom to move about. Also, she has the double threat of being both a discoverer of the gold and an outsider. If she chose to blab about all this later on, she could cause some real trouble for the other family members. She has more than enough leeway for blackmail and extortion.
- It is impossible that Battler let Erika do all her insensitive inspections, and even less that a mysterious force prevented him to do so
Erika is trying to frame Battler, so she did whatever she could to prevent him knowing about it.
- It is impossible that Erika was allowed to get inside Kinzo's room, even less possible that they let her take the chemical inside and use them as if it was her own house.
- It is impossible that Erika could use that stuff to make scientific analysis in CSI style within that small allotted time.
For the above 2, I'd need to re-read the game more closely, since I haven't re-checked that part for a while. However, if Erika had some inside information (which she probably did, if she solved the epitaph), then she might have researched and planned it beforehand. Also, she may have had help from the real culprit, whoever that is.
- Because of the above points It was impossible for Erika to prove that Genji wasn't the culprit of the cousin's room murder
On the game board, you don't need absolute proof. This argument is only relevant for the meta world.
- It is extremely hard for a person to stay awake the whole night while doing nothing or focusing on something that gives no reaction (more than 90% of people would fail this test), even more improbable if that person is heavily fatigued.
Heh, I've pulled an all-nighter for a math midterm. People can do a lot when you have 10 tons of gold at stake. Since she didn't swim to the island, she might have had a weeks worth of sleep for all we know.
- It was impossible for Erika to prove that Nanjo and Kumasawa didn't left their room from 3 AM until morning
- It was impossible for Erika to prove Kinzo wasn't the culprit
- It was impossible for Erika to prove Krauss wasn't the culprit
- More importantly it was impossible for Erika to prove she wasn't the culprit
For the above four, as with Genji, it is not necessary for Erika to prove things absolutely on the game board.
- Because of all the above, it was impossible for everyone to accept Erika's accusations, and even less possible for Battler to stay silent
We don't see how Erika makes her argument on the game board. You cannot argue that meta-Erika's arguments must follow board Erika's arguments...because the same did not always happen for meta-Battler (like There are only 5 master keys and EP3's first closed room).
- It was impossible for Erika to invoke bernkastel's name inside the gameboard
Probably, though Erika might be Bern's vessel and therefore know about a fictional character called Bernkastel. Otherwise, this is just a minor fantasy scene. Unless it was actually Meta-Erika.
- it goes without saying but every metaworld scene, magic event, dead persons shown alive, magic entity talking to real person and the likes aren't possible in the real world, and those alone are more than half episode5.
You are confusing meta world scenes with falsehoods. Obviously any scene with meta-Battler in it is false, but that's because it doesn't even take place on the game board, right? Any scene that is not viewed by a surviving character on the game board can fall under this category. Like Battler said when he first used the cat box argument "I don't see any spears or shields anymore".

To further justify my last point, any scene that is obviously fake does not help you for your argument. You claimed you have "no problem" with it if someone tells you that it's a fictional story. Therefore, any scenes we know are false are simply not counted in the reasoning portion of the game, and can't really be complained about.

For example, seeing ghost Kinzo appear in EP5 should never impair your ability to reason. We know he's dead, so the only explanation is that he's a figment of Natsuhi's imagination.

I'm not going to say that all or even most of the above guesses are right, but it's nowhere near as hopeless as you're making it out to be. If you're trying to say that we should all stop thinking about possible solutions now, I have to disagree.

Spoiler for size:

I still think this is overly complicated and incomplete.

Wait a second, you're willing to accept 9 Knox rules to explain one small facet of the game, but 5 rules to explain the game itself is overly complicated?
We already have 3 different colors of text. Just how simple to you expect the game to be?

From the way you describe it... it looks that you give to Beatrice even more power than that of Bernkastel in Higurashi. She couldn't even chose the kakera there, and with your theory Beatrice can even peel off the kakera she doesn't like through rules and red text.

Cat box. We already know Beatrice can't control things outside of Rokkenjima. Whereas Bernkastel could flit between entire worlds, Beatrice can only exist in and effect a small area in space and time, and furthermore, it's a place that can't be easily observed, meaning the specific events that occur there count for very little.

I think there's a paradox in the fact that being the kakera infinite no matter how many times you peel them off, they will never get to one. Actually they will remain infinite no matter what. From the way the kakera are described you can't possibly enclose them because they have also infinite dimensions. The rules, the red and gold can only create boundaries at best. And in the end you still have an infinite number of Kakera whom Beatrice can choose from.

Ah, I'm glad you brought this point up. This is actually one of the strongest bits of support my argument has. At the end of the game, Battler proposes one truth and Erika proposes another. The story makes it pretty clear that whoever wins the argument will have their version become the truth. In other words, selecting a single kakera from the remaining possible ones depends on the players from both sides.

To put it simply, this is the whole point of the "game" part of the game, and the only explanation I can see which gives the game any real meaning.

Edit: I just realized that with your theory, the red text does not always tell the truth. If that's the case, there's almost no point in continuing this series...

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Doesn't that extra tip suggest that she was the one who spurred Takano on to do all those horrible things in Higurashi?

Takano wanted to become a god not a witch. The girl in the "Lambda's Diary" asked to become a witch and became one by Lambda's power at the end.

Originally Posted by Marion

She's 34-tan of course

Well Lambda is described as a witch who can make any one thing definietly happen, as we know. However it all depends on the wording of the wish she grants.

Example: If you said you wanted to earn 10000 dollars then Lambda would grant it. However, if you waver in your will to earn that money then her certainty no longer works.

So if Beatrice wanted Battler to reveal the truth then Lambda's power could make it happen. But if his will wavered to reveal that truth then the certainty no longer works. Something like that is Lambda's power. There's also the power of being able to cause certain death to any target apparently. And in EP 3 she did threaten Beato, saying that she would turn her back into a human and throw her into a miserable world.

Beatrice set up the gameboards and with Lambda's power it was supposed to be impossible for Bernkastel to win. Beatrice's true intentions were to help Battler. Lambda realized her true intentions and in the end removed her power.

Why would Beatrice get involved with Lambdadelta at all if she already had enough power to create imaginary novel-like worlds?

My theory is that she actually did not have enough power to create these worlds and needed Lambda's power to do it.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

We know he's dead, so the only explanation is that he's a figment of Natsuhi's imagination.

No possibility of a "Meta-Kinzo"?

[Ithekro]

Are we sure is was Beatrice that Lambda gave the power to? Did it specify it was Beatrice?

[chronotrig]

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

No possibility of a "Meta-Kinzo"?

Yeah, that works too, sorry.
Still, as far as the physical game board is concerned, it doesn't really matter. We know how Natsuhi feels about Kinzo. Whether this Kinzo is her delusion or pure meta doesn't affect the game board.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Yeah, that works too, sorry.
Still, as far as the physical game board is concerned, it doesn't really matter. We know how Natsuhi feels about Kinzo. Whether this Kinzo is her delusion or pure meta doesn't affect the game board.

Well yeah, in regards to the gameboard, he's just Natsuhi's delusion.

I was more talking about how he keeps showing up and commenting on stuff, though.

Originally Posted by Ssol

Takano wanted to become a god not a witch. The girl in the "Lambda's Diary" asked to become a witch and became one by Lambda's power at the end.

Which leaves it as either:

a) Hanyuu (The Voyager Witches have similar powers and are effectively gods).
b) Rika (Wouldn't that be a twist and a half).
Or, most likely, c) Someone completely unrelated.

Originally Posted by Ssol

My theory is that she actually did not have enough power to create these worlds and needed Lambda's power to do it.

Doesn't the Ep3 Tea Party pretty much state this outright? Not in those exact words, but Lambda is the one who made Beato a witch in the first place.

...Actually, couldn't that make her the girl Lambda turned into a witch? Or was that your point?

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Are we sure is was Beatrice that Lambda gave the power to? Did it specify it was Beatrice?

Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon

Doesn't the Ep3 Tea Party pretty much state this outright? Not in those exact words, but Lambda is the one who made Beato a witch in the first place.

...Actually, couldn't that make her the girl Lambda turned into a witch? Or was that your point?

If Beatrice is the girl from the TIPS then she started out as a witch learning from Virgilia but dreamt of becoming a god. That doesn't make sense to me so I don't think Beatrice is the girl from the TIPS. (What if IT'S VIRGILIA??? DUN DUN DUN )

My point is if Beatrice got the power from Lambda then her power can only be less than or equal to that of Lambda. However, Lambda's true power is unknown so Beatrice's power is unknown.

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Ah, thank you.

Spoiler for size:

- It is impossible for someone to survive in the middle of an ocean during a typhoon, especially in the cold waters of October
Erika arrived on the island before the typhoon. The "Erika" on the boat was either a fake or a person whose name Erika borrowed. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so such measures are not unreasonable.
- It was impossible for Erika to predict the murders with such a certainty
Erika did not predict the murders. She tried to commit them and frame Battler, but the bodies were removed before she got there. By framing Battler, she would become the sole discoverer of the gold. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so such measures are not unreasonable.
- It was impossible for Erika to refute the existence of secret passages
We're talking game board here, right? It's possible for anyone to say that passages don't exist. That doesn't mean they're right or wrong.
- It was impossible for Eva to accept the plan of a perfect stranger
Furudo Erika is after the 10 tons of gold. Since she has no apparent connection to the family, this is not at all unbelievable. All Eva really wants is to inherit the title. They are the perfect team after Erika is named as one of the discoverers.
- It was impossible for Erika to claim so seriously that she's a detective unless she's completely insane.
Furudo Erika is trying to frame Battler and take the credit for catching him. If so, it would be more strange for her not to take the role of detective.
- It is impossible for a person to climb barehanded to the second floor of an house while it is raining.
Without knowledge of the details of the guesthouse's structure, you cannot prove this. 10 tons of gold are at stake, so people taking extreme measures cannot be used as a counter-argument except for physical impossibility or extreme improbability. Also, depending on the time she did this, she may have had a lot of time at her disposal.
- there doesn't seem to be a realistic time span when Erika could have placed all those seals around the guesthouse.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but I don't believe there's a limit on the start time for this. In other words, she could have sealed the windows before leaving with Battler for the Golden Land. If she was trying to frame Battler, this is perfectly reasonable.
- It is impossible that the whole Ushiromiya family let a perfect stranger boss around
Some of those scenes are obviously falsehoods, or else full meta world scenes. However, it's possible that Erika has some pull with certain members of the family. A connection with Eva has already been proposed. By playing the siblings off each other, she could probably get some freedom to move about. Also, she has the double threat of being both a discoverer of the gold and an outsider. If she chose to blab about all this later on, she could cause some real trouble for the other family members. She has more than enough leeway for blackmail and extortion.
- It is impossible that Battler let Erika do all her insensitive inspections, and even less that a mysterious force prevented him to do so
Erika is trying to frame Battler, so she did whatever she could to prevent him knowing about it.
- It is impossible that Erika was allowed to get inside Kinzo's room, even less possible that they let her take the chemical inside and use them as if it was her own house.
- It is impossible that Erika could use that stuff to make scientific analysis in CSI style within that small allotted time.
For the above 2, I'd need to re-read the game more closely, since I haven't re-checked that part for a while. However, if Erika had some inside information (which she probably did, if she solved the epitaph), then she might have researched and planned it beforehand. Also, she may have had help from the real culprit, whoever that is.
- Because of the above points It was impossible for Erika to prove that Genji wasn't the culprit of the cousin's room murder
On the game board, you don't need absolute proof. This argument is only relevant for the meta world.
- It is extremely hard for a person to stay awake the whole night while doing nothing or focusing on something that gives no reaction (more than 90% of people would fail this test), even more improbable if that person is heavily fatigued.
Heh, I've pulled an all-nighter for a math midterm. People can do a lot when you have 10 tons of gold at stake. Since she didn't swim to the island, she might have had a weeks worth of sleep for all we know.
- It was impossible for Erika to prove that Nanjo and Kumasawa didn't left their room from 3 AM until morning
- It was impossible for Erika to prove Kinzo wasn't the culprit
- It was impossible for Erika to prove Krauss wasn't the culprit
- More importantly it was impossible for Erika to prove she wasn't the culprit
For the above four, as with Genji, it is not necessary for Erika to prove things absolutely on the game board.
- Because of all the above, it was impossible for everyone to accept Erika's accusations, and even less possible for Battler to stay silent
We don't see how Erika makes her argument on the game board. You cannot argue that meta-Erika's arguments must follow board Erika's arguments...because the same did not always happen for meta-Battler (like There are only 5 master keys and EP3's first closed room).
- It was impossible for Erika to invoke bernkastel's name inside the gameboard
Probably, though Erika might be Bern's vessel and therefore know about a fictional character called Bernkastel. Otherwise, this is just a minor fantasy scene. Unless it was actually Meta-Erika.
- it goes without saying but every metaworld scene, magic event, dead persons shown alive, magic entity talking to real person and the likes aren't possible in the real world, and those alone are more than half episode5.
You are confusing meta world scenes with falsehoods. Obviously any scene with meta-Battler in it is false, but that's because it doesn't even take place on the game board, right? Any scene that is not viewed by a surviving character on the game board can fall under this category. Like Battler said when he first used the cat box argument "I don't see any spears or shields anymore".

To further justify my last point, any scene that is obviously fake does not help you for your argument. You claimed you have "no problem" with it if someone tells you that it's a fictional story. Therefore, any scenes we know are false are simply not counted in the reasoning portion of the game, and can't really be complained about.

For example, seeing ghost Kinzo appear in EP5 should never impair your ability to reason. We know he's dead, so the only explanation is that he's a figment of Natsuhi's imagination.

I'm not going to say that all or even most of the above guesses are right, but it's nowhere near as hopeless as you're making it out to be. If you're trying to say that we should all stop thinking about possible solutions now, I have to disagree.

Don't misunderstand me, my point is not to demonstrate that ep5 has a lot of plot holes, my point is to demonstrate that the story in the way it has been shown to us was false. By providing alternative truths behind the facts that have been exposed you are not proving my point wrong, actually you are agreeing that the story that we have been shown was full of lies.

Most of the points you make are something that I also considered and are reasonable. there's just a few exceptions. For example you based most of your counters that it wasn't necessary for Erika to prove absolutely her claims, but considering Battler was there it was necessary, else he wouldn't let her to humiliate Natsuhi.
Or for example the secret passage thing. If she couldn't prove they don't exist the discussion would pretty much end there. There was no need for Battler to climb down the third floor.

Anyway the metaworld and the metascenes in ep5 are almost always intertwined with the gameboard so if I dismiss them completely there's very little that remain of the whole account of the events of the Rokkenjima of ep5, what is left I estimate to be around 10%. the rest was outright concealed or covered with lies.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Wait a second, you're willing to accept 9 Knox rules to explain one small facet of the game, but 5 rules to explain the game itself is overly complicated?
We already have 3 different colors of text. Just how simple to you expect the game to be?

Do you think I would ever accept the "theory" that umineko is following the knox rules? There's been people that discussed about those rules even before ep5 but I don't remember anyone taking them so seriously.
Knox rules rules aren't theories now, they are well defined facts stated by the author. The Occam's razor works for theories not for facts. Of course it might happen that you got the right theory, but the more a theory is complicated the higher is the number of theories with the same level of complexity that could explain the phenomenon. So the chance that you got the right one is slim.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Cat box. We already know Beatrice can't control things outside of Rokkenjima. Whereas Bernkastel could flit between entire worlds, Beatrice can only exist in and effect a small area in space and time, and furthermore, it's a place that can't be easily observed, meaning the specific events that occur there count for very little.

I agree this is cat box we don't have any certainty about Beatrice's real power, it could be anything, but various hints in the whole story make me thing she has the power of imagination. Else why Beatrice said that Kumasawa was a mage user of a very high level? Under my perspective the hints about "magic = imagination" are so overwhelming that I can't think of any alternative.
On the other side what kind of hints we have that Beatrice has a power related to kakera? I don't think she ever mentioned them once.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Ah, I'm glad you brought this point up. This is actually one of the strongest bits of support my argument has. At the end of the game, Battler proposes one truth and Erika proposes another. The story makes it pretty clear that whoever wins the argument will have their version become the truth. In other words, selecting a single kakera from the remaining possible ones depends on the players from both sides.

To put it simply, this is the whole point of the "game" part of the game, and the only explanation I can see which gives the game any real meaning.

But how can you explain this without magic or a difficult scientific explanation? The metaworld is acceptable as long as it doesn't effect the real world, but what you are saying here is that from the metaworld you define the real world.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Edit: I just realized that with your theory, the red text does not always tell the truth. If that's the case, there's almost no point in continuing this series...

Ah this is one of the most important point of my interpretation. The red truth doesn't need to relate to the real world it can also relate to the fictional world created by Beatrice.

Btw your theory also imply a modification of the concept behind the red truth. According to your perspective the red truth is not bound to reality but affects it.
I can see why you came up with this interpretation, this fits well with the trial that was shown in ep5. However it looks to me that this defy the original purpose. Beatrice created the red truth to help Battler, so a "truth" had to exist. Battler needs to find the truth, not to create one.

[desirebluesky]

Originally Posted by Ssol

If Beatrice is the girl from the TIPS then she started out as a witch learning from Virgilia but dreamt of becoming a god. That doesn't make sense to me so I don't think Beatrice is the girl from the TIPS. (What if IT'S VIRGILIA??? DUN DUN DUN )

but there were 2 girls in the tips.
in the tips, 34 met a girl who wanted to become a god, granted her wish, and later met another girl who wanted to become a witch and reminded her of the first one.

Originally Posted by Ithekro

Are we sure is was Beatrice that Lambda gave the power to? Did it specify it was Beatrice?

Spoiler for EP3 Teaparty:

Originally Posted by 34

"......That's why, in exchange for letting me borrow that, I made you a witch.
.........If I stop beeing your guardian, you'll immediately go back to being human.
...Make sure you don't forget that, no matter how much incredible magical power you hold, ......you are nothing more than a temporary witch."

Originally Posted by 34

"You know what? Your role is to make Bernkastel surrender. In other words, that means being the victor in this game for all eternity. ......As long as you keep trying to become the 'certain' victor, then I will give you my power as the Witch of Certainty. ............However.
If you fight in a way that doesn't deny any possibility of your loss,` ...that's a diffent story."

Originally Posted by 34

"............Because originally, you weren't even a witch, and at any time, I'll remind you what a truly shabby creature you were. ............If you betray my expectations. At that time, you can look forward to a fun, fun punishment game.
...In the world of billions of kakera, ......I'll send you into the most miserable kakera and seal you there. .........You were miserable in the first place, so it'll really be worth choosing a miserable kakera.
...*giggle*giggle*giggle*giggle*giggle*."

"........................"

that's all i found, but i think there actually was a line about 'borrowing power'.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Ssol

Beatrice set up the gameboards and with Lambda's power it was supposed to be impossible for Bernkastel to win. Beatrice's true intentions were to help Battler. Lambda realized her true intentions and in the end removed her power.

Why would Beatrice get involved with Lambdadelta at all if she already had enough power to create imaginary novel-like worlds?

My theory is that she actually did not have enough power to create these worlds and needed Lambda's power to do it.

Well yeah that's pretty obvious in EP 4 when it's outright stated that Beatrice needed MARIA to keep her Golden Land alive and when the latter left the entire world crumbled.

[Jan-Poo]

I guess it all depends on how you look at the magic world. Does it really exist or is it a metaphor? If it is a metaphor the fact that Lambda made Beatrice a "witch" only means that Beatrice without the strong will and determination that Lambda represent won't be able to maintain the magic delusion she created.

[Used Can]

Originally Posted by Ssol

Takano wanted to become a god not a witch. The girl in the "Lambda's Diary" asked to become a witch and became one by Lambda's power at the end.

Two girls got mentioned in Lambda's diary. The first one asked "certainty that her efforts would pay off and she'd become a god". The second one asked to be "recognised as a witch". So, the first girl could easily be Takano and the second one Beatrice.

[chronotrig]

Spoiler for size:

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Don't misunderstand me, my point is not to demonstrate that ep5 has a lot of plot holes, my point is to demonstrate that the story in the way it has been shown to us was false. By providing alternative truths behind the facts that have been exposed you are not proving my point wrong, actually you are agreeing that the story that we have been shown was full of lies.

By this argument, most mysteries fail because they don't tell you all the info right away. Almost any mystery that follows this standard you've set is pointless to read, "And then there were none" ranking high among them. Look at what I wrote. I have not suggested a single alternate truth for any of these scenes, just omitted information.

Furthermore, all of it follows naturally based on a single omitted fact: that Erika was after the gold before reaching the island. Again, how simple does the explanation have to be before you'll admit that the game gave you enough clues?

For example you based most of your counters that it wasn't necessary for Erika to prove absolutely her claims, but considering Battler was there it was necessary, else he wouldn't let her to humiliate Natsuhi.
Or for example the secret passage thing. If she couldn't prove they don't exist the discussion would pretty much end there. There was no need for Battler to climb down the third floor.

No, there's nowhere near enough info for you to treat that like a red statement. First off, there's a chance that Battler, or a double of him, is the culprit, and the Ura tea party makes this incredibly clear. Also, since we don't know what reasoning board Erika used, there's a chance that Battler just needed some time to work out an argument. At the very end, we see him saying "dameda" again, so maybe he's finally figured everything out. And just to round things off with a good 3 explanations, there's a chance that Erika blackmailed him at some point, and that he only just figured "to hell with it" in the last moments of the game.

As for the secret passages, that's not so much of a problem. In EP1, they accepted that there were no secret passages, to the point where Eva almost succeeded in accusing Natsuhi. This more or less proves your point wrong here.

Anyway the metaworld and the metascenes in ep5 are almost always intertwined with the gameboard so if I dismiss them completely there's very little that remain of the whole account of the events of the Rokkenjima of ep5, what is left I estimate to be around 10%. the rest was outright concealed or covered with lies.

Don't forget what you yourself said. If the game tells you that a scene is false, then you should be happy to accept it by your own argument. Any scene where the meta world exists has no relevance to the game board except for the red text. Since you claim to be okay with having the entire game be fake as long as they tell us, why can't you accept this?

Edit: Come to think of it, there's no evidence in the game that supports your theory directly. In other words, you're saying the whole thing is false without anyone telling us. Doesn't this mean that your theory says the game is even more deceitful than mine does?

Btw your theory also imply a modification of the concept behind the red truth. According to your perspective the red truth is not bound to reality but affects it.
I can see why you came up with this interpretation, this fits well with the trial that was shown in ep5. However it looks to me that this defy the original purpose. Beatrice created the red truth to help Battler, so a "truth" had to exist. Battler needs to find the truth, not to create one.

If you read my 5 rules, this problem is addressed. Red text does not change reality, it only eliminates kakera which are already impossible due to the gold text.

Also, you really can't say there's no evidence that "the winner of the game creates the truth that exists at the end", because this has been said about 50 times throughout the game, including at the first Schrodinger's Cat explanation.

Do you think I would ever accept the "theory" that umineko is following the knox rules? There's been people that discussed about those rules even before ep5 but I don't remember anyone taking them so seriously.
Knox rules rules aren't theories now, they are well defined facts stated by the author. The Occam's razor works for theories not for facts. Of course it might happen that you got the right theory, but the more a theory is complicated the higher is the number of theories with the same level of complexity that could explain the phenomenon. So the chance that you got the right one is slim.

Chances that I got everything right? Yes, I've admitted that they're slim. Even so, most parts of it are supported by dozens of lines throughout the games.

Also, I'd like to see you explain your theory in so many words.


And with your theory
--Red text isn't true
--No explanation for gold text
--No lines in the game which directly support it
--Means that there's no point for us to use reasoning
--Means that we've never seen any of the true world (at least after EP1)
--No explanation for how the game will end


Since we've both admitted that both theories could be true, I'll gladly choose the one which means the details of the question arcs were actually important.

[Jan-Poo]

Spoiler for size:

Originally Posted by chronotrig

By this argument, most mysteries fail because they don't tell you all the info right away. Almost any mystery that follows this standard you've set is pointless to read, "And then there were none" ranking high among them. Look at what I wrote. I have not suggested a single alternate truth for any of these scenes, just omitted information.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Don't forget what you yourself said. If the game tells you that a scene is false, then you should be happy to accept it by your own argument. Any scene where the meta world exists has no relevance to the game board except for the red text. Since you claim to be okay with having the entire game be fake as long as they tell us, why can't you accept this?

I'll clarify what I said. If a "story" is totally fictional I'm ok with that. if a "story" is real I'm ok with that. If a "story" is half real and half fictional I'm okay with that. If a "story" is only 10% real and 90% fictional I'm not okay with that.
I refuse to consider each scene alone, I consider the whole story as whole. Also "most mystery novels" do not lie that much and therefore they do not "fail". Usually the lies are way less than 50%.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

Edit: Come to think of it, there's no evidence in the game that supports your theory directly. In other words, you're saying the whole thing is false without anyone telling us. Doesn't this mean that your theory says the game is even more deceitful than mine does?

I think there are a lot of hints. In ep5 it is a fact that the games are treated as novels. The knox rules totally destroyed any possibility that the red can only apply to real facts. There are no Knox rules in the real world, they have absolutely no meaning in the real world, they only have a meaning in the mystery novel world.

There is no detective in the real world unless the one that does it as profession. The red truth

Erika is the detective

Has absolutely no meaning in the real world. Erika is not a detective. Erika can only be a "detective" inside a novel where she has that "role".

"There is no love in Lambda's game"

Love has been explained by Dlanor. There is a kind of relationship that is created by the reader and the writer. If there is love, the writer has love for the reader he will create a story for the reader to solve. If there's no love the story will be impossible to solve. If there's love in the reader, he will have faith that the story is solvable, if there's no love he will think the author is cheating.

Lambda's game lacks love. This is exactly what Ronove was telling to Battler. Lambda's game is not solvable. with this game Ryukishi showed us what can be done of a "game" if there's no love. He shoved in our face this fact: "you thought that Beato's game were confusing? Look at this." However this is yet another novel analogy, and if Lambda could manipulate things that much it's because there are actually no reality limits.

There are tons of such novel analogies, but I don't think I need to prove my point any further.

Originally Posted by chronotrig

If you read my 5 rules, this problem is addressed. Red text does not change reality, it only eliminates kakera which are already impossible due to the gold text.

Also, you really can't say there's no evidence that "the winner of the game creates the truth that exists at the end", because this has been said about 50 times throughout the game, including at the first Schrodinger's Cat explanation.

The schroedinger's cat theory has been explained by Virgilia with the braun tube analogy. In other word it's not really a canonic copenhagen interpretation. We all know that there are not gremlins inside a braun tube. In other words there is only one reality from the start, it is not like in the quantum physic theory where a single reality doesn't exist until observed. The red truth has been compared to the action of opening the Braun tube. However there can only be one possible already determined result from that action. If you open the braun tube you just open the braun tube, you cannot decide what's inside, you cannot create the truth. a "truth" can only be created as long as the braun tube is closed. The red truth opens it. I wonder, did we read the same story? ^^;


--Red text isn't true <- The red text isn't true in our real world isn't it? You cannot question this. The same apply for Umineko. The red truth isn't true in Battler's world, but it is true in the fictional world created by beatrice. I think I have provided enough proof that not all the red text can possibly apply to the real world

--No explanation for gold text <- true, but we don't know anything about the gold text yet. It is impossible to make theories about it right now.

--No lines in the game which directly support it <- See above

--Means that there's no point for us to use reasoning <- No. Beatrice created the stories with love, and that means they were meant to be solvable. The huge hint of ep5 is that we have been shown a novel without love that is not solvable. The way I see it, ep5 was meant to make us realize the games are like novels. When you see how preposterous the world of ep5 is, you should realize it: it is not real.

--Means that we've never seen any of the true world <- true, I guess that's a problem for you, but it is a fact that we have seen false scenes. And that means it is possible that there's more of them, maybe all of them.

--No explanation for how the game will end <- The end of the game right now can only be guessed and with most certainty wrongly so. Anyway a way for the game to end with my theory exist.

"I keep my promise if you solve the riddle you should reach the golden land and the ceremony will end, no more people will die."

Beatrice never promised no one will die or that people will resurrect. It is simply as that: "no more people will die". Beatrice's worlds are like a riddle If Battler solves the riddle in all of its parts he will get in the real world the solution that will grant him the power to stop the tragedy. Once in the metaworld battler solves all and any of the various mysteries he will get what's really going on, he will be able to stop whatever it is happening, he will save his own life and all the lives of the remaining.

Battler never died in the real world. He only died a thousand times inside the fictional world Beatrice created.

[Antera Caramichael]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Spoiler for size:

Beatrice never promised no one will die or that people will resurrect. It is simply as that: "no more people will die". Beatrice's worlds are like a riddle If Battler solves the riddle in all of its parts he will get in the real world the solution that will grant him the power to stop the tragedy. Once in the metaworld battler solves all and any of the various mysteries he will get what's really going on, he will be able to stop whatever it is happening, he will save his own life and all the lives of the remaining.

Battler never died in the real world. He only died a thousand times inside the fictional world Beatrice created.

Spoiler for Long theory:

Concerning this, could it be that Umineko is an invention of Battler?
I explain myself:
In Ep4 TIPS, it is explained that there is 3 levels of Witches: The one named like this (The Golden Witches), who are the "masters" of a world (In this game: Beatrice is the master of Rokkenjimma), the Voyagers, who are travelling from worlds (Kakera) to worlds to distract themselves and finally the Creators (Maria), who can create Universes from zero.

At first, my theory was that Ryukishi was a Creator: As the writer, he created the Umineko Universe. But what if it was the Battler from the first game?
My (crazy) theorie is that The Battler from Episode 1 survived. Maybe he was even not the only one (There was Four Missings, but we know that Maria is dead).
Because he was (one of) the only survivor(s), he knew that all the suspicion would fall on him and he ran away.

Battler tried to solve the mysteries in the real world, and we can see some phases of his reasoning:
The first game is the real world where he don't understand anything.
Battler refuses to accept the witch existence but at the same time recognize it by the only fact of creating her character.
In Episode 2, he begins his thinking but surrenders quite rapidly.
But he realises that surrendering cannot giving him rest because of culpability (Rosa's banquet?)
In Episode 3, he is slowly beginning to accept the witch (Eva-Beatrice) theory which leads him to another surrendering, which doesn't give him culpability.
But his souvenir of Ange waiting revive him and lead him to finally find a human explanation to all the murders.
He defeated Beatrice, now he only has only final riddle to solve: Who is she?

The fact that he have to prove that it was all a human deed (And so explaining with a rational explanation the events of the island) was at the same time limited by Beatrice, which in fact is an invention of his mind.
Battler created Beatrice as a character who try to make him surrender by reminding him all the elements that he has observed or learn in a way or another in the real world. But in fact, it is Beatrice who is keeping him going to the truth: If his theory were not wronged, he would stop thinking. Because he found an rational explanation, he could stop, but it is not necessarily the truth.

For me Erika represent another Beatrice: She actually is another part of Battler's character, the one who can easily found a culprit, but that is not necessarily the true one. But who cares, the only goal is to find someone who is not him.
Battler succumb to this tentation (Red Blade) but at the end realise that he wants to reveal the truth, and not only exculpate himself from being the murderer.

So in brief: Umineko is a world created by Battler in order to find the truth.
Each magical character got a metaphoric signification and thus is not real.
Beatrice and Erika are characters born from himself.
Beatrice represents his will to find the truth and Erika the one to find an explanation. For me, both those characters are rivals, needed in order for Battler to stimulate himself.

Concerning Lambda and Bern, I have an idea but for the time I don't have the time to write it. =p

Well, this theory is half-assed in any cases...

[Jan-Poo]

eh, not bad if you ask me ^^

[Archer]

Originally Posted by Antera Caramichael

Spoiler for Long theory:

Concerning this, could it be that Umineko is an invention of Battler?
I explain myself:
In Ep4 TIPS, it is explained that there is 3 levels of Witches: The one named like this (The Golden Witches), who are the "masters" of a world (In this game: Beatrice is the master of Rokkenjimma), the Voyagers, who are travelling from worlds (Kakera) to worlds to distract themselves and finally the Creators (Maria), who can create Universes from zero.

At first, my theory was that Ryukishi was a Creator: As the writer, he created the Umineko Universe. But what if it was the Battler from the first game?
My (crazy) theorie is that The Battler from Episode 1 survived. Maybe he was even not the only one (There was Four Missings, but we know that Maria is dead).
Because he was (one of) the only survivor(s), he knew that all the suspicion would fall on him and he ran away.

Battler tried to solve the mysteries in the real world, and we can see some phases of his reasoning:
The first game is the real world where he don't understand anything.
Battler refuses to accept the witch existence but at the same time recognize it by the only fact of creating her character.
In Episode 2, he begins his thinking but surrenders quite rapidly.
But he realises that surrendering cannot giving him rest because of culpability (Rosa's banquet?)
In Episode 3, he is slowly beginning to accept the witch (Eva-Beatrice) theory which leads him to another surrendering, which doesn't give him culpability.
But his souvenir of Ange waiting revive him and lead him to finally find a human explanation to all the murders.
He defeated Beatrice, now he only has only final riddle to solve: Who is she?

The fact that he have to prove that it was all a human deed (And so explaining with a rational explanation the events of the island) was at the same time limited by Beatrice, which in fact is an invention of his mind.
Battler created Beatrice as a character who try to make him surrender by reminding him all the elements that he has observed or learn in a way or another in the real world. But in fact, it is Beatrice who is keeping him going to the truth: If his theory were not wronged, he would stop thinking. Because he found an rational explanation, he could stop, but it is not necessarily the truth.

For me Erika represent another Beatrice: She actually is another part of Battler's character, the one who can easily found a culprit, but that is not necessarily the true one. But who cares, the only goal is to find someone who is not him.
Battler succumb to this tentation (Red Blade) but at the end realise that he wants to reveal the truth, and not only exculpate himself from being the murderer.

So in brief: Umineko is a world created by Battler in order to find the truth.
Each magical character got a metaphoric signification and thus is not real.
Beatrice and Erika are characters born from himself.
Beatrice represents his will to find the truth and Erika the one to find an explanation. For me, both those characters are rivals, needed in order for Battler to stimulate himself.

Concerning Lambda and Bern, I have an idea but for the time I don't have the time to write it. =p

Well, this theory is half-assed in any cases...

Personally, I disagree with this theory, purely because

Spoiler for Episode 4 Spoilers:

"Beatrice" does exist in the real world. There is actually somebody out there related to the murders that calls herself "Beatrice". The proof lies within the signature written on Maria's Grimoire.

Furthermore, that person was also the one that wrote the letters to the relatives of the victims and the letters in the bottles as evident by the similar handwriting. This implies that this "Beatrice", whoever she is, is still alive under the alias of "Maria Ushiromiya", and knows exactly what happened on the island. Furthermore, within the context of the game, meta-Battler knows a lot more information than he should be knowing, especially about the true story behind Beatrice. This suggests that there is an outside influence that is guiding meta-Battler through all this, whoever he or she may be.

I believe that the "Creator" aspect of the TIPS section refers to "Maria"'s creation of multiple worlds through her letters, which also ties in well with the TIPS about the Mariage Sorciere and Beatrice's titles.

[Used Can]

You know, what if her real name is Maria? Rosa did say Kinzo didn't like her naming her child that way. While that on itself says little, the fact "Beatrice" used Maria's name in those letters strike me as odd. It might just be a big coincidence, though.

There's also a character who's first kanji can be somewhat interchanged with Maria's first kanji. All the same, this character was mentioned only once (in narrative). So, I think this would be too much of a stretch.