US Elections 2012 Part II: The Conventions, Debates and Election results

[ganbaru]

Obama focuses on turnout, Romney on Pennsylvania
http://www.boston.com/news/local/new...LoN/story.html

[Roger Rambo]

Nate Silver had an interesting article yesterday.


Basically, Obama is favorite to win. And you need to assume the poll data is fundamentally wrong, and use very clever alternative means to think this is a toss up race.

Nate projects Obama having an 85% chance to win.

[ganbaru]

Democrats Sue to Extend Florida’s Early Voting
http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2...rly-voting/?hp

With Election Day a mere two days away, a judge will have little time to act in the case.

The lawsuit states that the three counties have “inadequate polling facilities” and have failed to meet the need of voters. Some voters faced “prohibitively long” lines and didn’t finish voting until early Sunday morning.

“The extraordinarily long lines deterred or prevented voters from waiting to vote,” the lawsuit states. “Some voters left the polling sites upon learning of the expected wait, and others refused to line up altogether. These long lines and extreme delays unduly and unjustifiably burdened the right to vote.”

With complaints streaming in from irate voters, the Florida Democratic Party and the League of Women Voters in Florida first asked Gov. Rick Scott and state election officials on Thursday to extend early voting. They argued that some voters were leaving without voting because they did not have all day to wait in line. The Monroe County election supervisor, Harry Sawyer, also issued a request to Mr. Scott that he used his emergency powers to extend early voting.

[Mentar]

There's one thing which I find a little baffling when I see pictures from American poll stations.

Where do these endless lines come from? I mean, how many voters are assigned to each station, on the average?

If I compare that to my German voting experiences: In Germany, you're actually supposed to vote with a card you receive in the mail, along with your ID. If you forget the card, but have an official photo ID (or passport or driving licence), you can still vote after they look you up in the registry. Without that, it's a no-go.

But I can't remember any lines REMOTELY of the kinds I see in the news in the US. Is it the sheer amount, or is the procedure to vote so complicated?

[Xacual]

Originally Posted by Mentar

There's one thing which I find a little baffling when I see pictures from American poll stations.

Where do these endless lines come from? I mean, how many voters are assigned to each station, on the average?

If I compare that to my German voting experiences: In Germany, you're actually supposed to vote with a card you receive in the mail, along with your ID. If you forget the card, but have an official photo ID (or passport or driving licence), you can still vote after they look you up in the registry. Without that, it's a no-go.

But I can't remember any lines REMOTELY of the kinds I see in the news in the US. Is it the sheer amount, or is the procedure to vote so complicated?

I wouldn't know really, both times I've voted has been ridiculously early in the morning to avoid any kind of wait. Maybe 10-20 people max when I was there.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by Mentar

There's one thing which I find a little baffling when I see pictures from American poll stations.

Where do these endless lines come from? I mean, how many voters are assigned to each station, on the average?

If I compare that to my German voting experiences: In Germany, you're actually supposed to vote with a card you receive in the mail, along with your ID. If you forget the card, but have an official photo ID (or passport or driving licence), you can still vote after they look you up in the registry. Without that, it's a no-go.

But I can't remember any lines REMOTELY of the kinds I see in the news in the US. Is it the sheer amount, or is the procedure to vote so complicated?

I find them a bit odd as well, the longest line I ever had to deal with was maybe 10 or 15 deep. I can only characterize it as a passive-aggressive form of voter suppression. Ownership, maintenance, and auditing of the vote is on the county level with state oversight. Lack of funding (or more often, wasting money by buying e-vote crap machines) as well as purposely under-assigning machines to particular locations leads to this nonsense.

The procedure to vote is simple - walk up, point to your name in the registry, usually that's enough, have an electric bill, voter card, or ID of some kind. The "voter ID cards" have your picture in some states. Then you vote (then the machine fouls up, has to be rebooted and your one vote gets counted a thousand times for the wrong candidate, but I digress ).

Of course, my state is completely vote-by-mail now, which works beautifully, I might add (though I'm sure there's the occasional household where one jackass tries to force the others to vote a certain way).

[Mentar]

Heh. Voting machines. It never ceases to amaze me that the fact is pretty much omitted in the MSM that those people who know about Computers the most are pretty much the most adamant AGAINST the use of electronic machines for election purposes.

The idea of having to trust what an electronic device barfs out without having independent people count and verify votes on paper feels so totally absurd...

[james0246]

Originally Posted by Mentar

But I can't remember any lines REMOTELY of the kinds I see in the news in the US. Is it the sheer amount, or is the procedure to vote so complicated?

The problem is that offices do not let people off work to vote. Consequently, there is a rush before work (when some voters have to drop off their children for school, not to mention rush hour traffic getting to work), during their lunch breaks (some workers have to drive many miles just to get back to their voting places), and then after work (where you have to deal with rush hour traffic, going to the store, picking up the kids, etc). Voting can be such a hassle at times that many simply do not vote.

Originally Posted by Mentar

The idea of having to trust what an electronic device barfs out without having independent people count and verify votes on paper feels so totally absurd...

Most electronic machines (in America) have a print out that the voter can see and verify before they officially cast their ballot. This leaves a definite paper trail that can then be analyzed later if there are any irregularities.

[Vexx]

There have been repeated attempts to have the voting day be a holiday (my preference -- and on a Tuesday its less likely to become just another "3 day weekend") or at least on a weekend. It has been consistently fought against because ... frankly, as I characterized it, it is a passive vote suppression mechanism (anti-working class).

Heh. Voting machines. It never ceases to amaze me that the fact is pretty much omitted in the MSM that those people who know about Computers the most are pretty much the most adamant AGAINST the use of electronic machines for election purposes.

Every tech person I know (much less the security people) think the concept is daft AT BEST and likely fraud on average. It is to facepalm, head-desk, etc.

And this .. this is utterly unacceptable. Closing down stations because "too many people showed up" after you've cut back hours, under-assigned machines, etc.

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2...-early-voting/

In a state where legal action often goes hand in hand with presidential elections, the Florida Democratic Party filed a federal lawsuit early Sunday to force the state government to extend early voting hours in South Florida.The lawsuit followed a stream of complaints from voters who sometimes waited nearly seven hours to vote or who did not vote at all because they could not wait for hours to do so.
Shortly after the lawsuit was filed, local election supervisors in Miami-Dade and Palm Beach Counties, where queues sometimes snaked out the door and around buildings, said they would allow voters to request and cast absentee ballots on Sunday. Voters in three other Florida counties also will be able to pick up and drop off absentee ballots. State election law permits election offices to receive absentee ballots through Tuesday so long as they are cast in person.
But later on Sunday, Miami-Dade’s county election supervisor closed down the line for absentee ballots at its Doral office after two hours because too many people showed up. It was eventually re-opened and election officials said that anyone in line by 5 p.m. would be able to drop off an absentee ballot.
In a separate Democratic Party lawsuit in Orange County, where Orlando is, a judge there extended early voting on Sunday after a polling station in the Winter Park library was forced to shut down over a suspicious package. The extra hours are being offered at only one polling station.
In their federal lawsuit, filed in court in Miami, Democrats argued that an emergency order was needed to “extend voting opportunities” before Tuesday in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach Counties. They also urged that voters be allowed to cast absentee ballots in person in the counties’ main election offices. The three counties are home to about 32 percent of the state’s registered Democratic voters.
With Election Day a mere two days away, a judge will have little time to act in the case.
The lawsuit states that the three counties have “inadequate polling facilities” and have failed to meet the need of voters. Some voters faced “prohibitively long” lines and didn’t finish voting until early Sunday morning.
“The extraordinarily long lines deterred or prevented voters from waiting to vote,” the lawsuit states. “Some voters left the polling sites upon learning of the expected wait, and others refused to line up altogether. These long lines and extreme delays unduly and unjustifiably burdened the right to vote.”
With complaints streaming in from irate voters, the Florida Democratic Party and the League of Women Voters in Florida first asked Gov. Rick Scott and state election officials on Thursday to extend early voting. They argued that some voters were leaving without voting because they did not have all day to wait in line. The Monroe County election supervisor, Harry Sawyer, also issued a request to Mr. Scott that he used his emergency powers to extend early voting.
But Mr. Scott and state elections officials rebuffed the request, saying that the process was running smoothly and the move was unnecessary.
Last year, Mr. Scott and the Republican-controlled State Legislature pushed through a measure to cut early voting from 14 to 8 days and do away with voting on the final Sunday before Election Day. Because more Democrats cast their ballots early than Republicans, the move was viewed by Democrats as an effort to blunt Democratic turnout.
The long lines have been particularly acute in South Florida, which has the highest population density in Florida and some of the longest ballots this year. In Miami-Dade County some voters had to scour complicated 12-page ballots, which contained not just myriad political races but votes on 11 complex proposed constitutional amendments, local issues and judicial races.
The Miami Herald reported that the last early vote in Miami-Dade County was not logged in until 1 a.m. Sunday, because the county said it would honor the votes of people who were standing in line at 7 p.m. Saturday.
Some election supervisors had warned that the combination of long ballots, fewer voting days and fewer polling stations would lead to unreasonably long lines.
State elections officials reported that by Saturday night 3.9 million Floridians had either cast absentee ballots or voted early.
“Because of Governor Scott’s refusal to follow precedent and extend early voting hours in the face of unprecedented voter turnout in South Florida, we are requesting in federal court that more Floridians have a meaningful chance to early vote,” said Rod Smith, Florida Democratic Party chairman.

[GDB]

Originally Posted by james0246

Most electronic machines (in America) have a print out that the voter can see and verify before they officially cast their ballot. This leaves a definite paper trail that can then be analyzed later if there are any irregularities.

I've never had one of the electronic voting machines here physically print anything out. It only displays all your votes on a single screen for review before submitting.

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by james0246

Most electronic machines (in America) have a print out that the voter can see and verify before they officially cast their ballot. This leaves a definite paper trail that can then be analyzed later if there are any irregularities.

Insufficient. Let's assume for a minute that there's indeed some malicious logic entered into the system (something which has been demonstrated in the past multiple times with pretty much every brand there is) which skews the votes by just enough to move the electronic result out of the recount range - then the result would stand.

In my opinion, the very idea of electronic devices for elections needs to be explicitly forbidden by law, because of lack of transparency and risk of manipulation. Paper vote done via manual count monitored all the time by observers of the various parties and/or interested citizens. Oh, and election days should naturally be on sundays, for obvious reasons.

Hilarious tidbit: Some Texan official was threatening OSCE observers with jail time should they appear at Texan polling stations.

[Green²]

Originally Posted by Mentar

There's one thing which I find a little baffling when I see pictures from American poll stations.

Where do these endless lines come from? I mean, how many voters are assigned to each station, on the average?

If I compare that to my German voting experiences: In Germany, you're actually supposed to vote with a card you receive in the mail, along with your ID. If you forget the card, but have an official photo ID (or passport or driving licence), you can still vote after they look you up in the registry. Without that, it's a no-go.

But I can't remember any lines REMOTELY of the kinds I see in the news in the US. Is it the sheer amount, or is the procedure to vote so complicated?

The voting system throughout some of the US had become less efficient over the recent past few years. We're mostly down to absentee paper ballot mail-in, or paper ballots at election day that you then need to manually run through a machine to tally the votes that were inked onto the paper.

For example, NY State had mechanical machine booths that you would flip down a bunch of levers that were organized & laid out similar to a spread sheet. For some, you could just find the Democratic line, zip through the tiny levers all the way across in under 0.825 seconds, pull the final big lever to cast, and done.

With the paper/machine scanner method, it takes a whole lot more time to complete the voting process. Most of it due to more time filling in the circles, weeding through the provided instructions, and fooling around with the paper ballot scanner machine after. If there is no table available to ink in the paper ballot, you have to wait for one to become available to you.

Then at the end of the voting process, they give you a stupid sticker that says "I voted" for you to wear all day long. Only, it's usually a bunch of old ladies that run things, and I dread them slapping a "I Voted" sticker to on my backside when I go this week.

In New Jersey, I think voting at the moment will probably consist of the color of the fireworks that are used. If it's blue, Obama. Red, for Romney. White, send more beer.

[GDB]

Originally Posted by Mentar

Oh, and election days should naturally be on sundays, for obvious reasons.

To piss off super religious folk?

Originally Posted by Green²

Then at the end of the voting process, they give you a stupid sticker that says "I voted" for you to wear all day long. Only, it's usually a bunch of old ladies that run things, and I dread them slapping a "I Voted" sticker to on my backside when I go this week.

When they reach for it, hold out your hand so they just hand it to you.

[Netto Azure]

Originally Posted by Green²

Then at the end of the voting process, they give you a stupid sticker that says "I voted" for you to wear all day long. Only, it's usually a bunch of old ladies that run things, and I dread them slapping a "I Voted" sticker to on my backside when I go this week.

Actually it's not stupid. The reason why the stickers are given out is to incentivize voting and increase participation. It's a cheap way for states to boost civic participation.

On the other hand either making the election merged with Veterans day or declaring it a Federal Holiday (CA Secretary of State Deborah Bowen explained to me that elections are a logistics problem for Saturdays and Sunday has too much religious connotations to be viable as election dates) plus of course a standard election system would certainly be a much better use of state power to increase participation.

[Ithekro]

I still find the older Scan-Tron style voting to be effective. While it does scan the votes electronically for fast processing, it also leaves a paper trail if things get squirrelly.

Can't say if it would be a probelm in a more populated area.

[Kaioshin Sama]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

Nate Silver had an interesting article yesterday.


Basically, Obama is favorite to win. And you need to assume the poll data is fundamentally wrong, and use very clever alternative means to think this is a toss up race.

Nate projects Obama having an 85% chance to win.

Yeah if we go by Nate's prediction Romney would have to beat almost 9 to 1 odds against him and/or have the election rigged in his favor via those state voting laws discarding enough votes for Obama to tip the key states in his favor. I think in one of the articles he even said that for Romney to win state polls would have to be statistically biased. Doable, but unlikely by normal standards this far into the race.

Also just out of curiosity and even though it's totally unrelated, what do the American posters here think of Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell. For someone who is so influential he sure doesn't seem to stand out too much and he doesn't really seem to fit in with the demagoguery of many of his peers in the house coming across almost as mild mannered and adjusted. Is he an example of a reasonable Republican in this day and age or does he just know how to duck unwanted attention while holding the congress hostage.

[Netto Azure]

Originally Posted by Kaioshin Sama

Is he an example of a reasonable Republican in this day and age or does he just know how to duck unwanted attention while holding the congress hostage.

I think this video encapsulates what I think of him in his own words.

He's a quiet behind the scenes guy.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by Kaioshin Sama

Yeah if we go by Nate's prediction Romney would have to beat almost 9 to 1 odds against him and/or have the election rigged in his favor via those state voting laws discarding enough votes for Obama to tip the key states in his favor. I think in one of the articles he even said that for Romney to win state polls would have to be statistically biased. Doable, but unlikely by normal standards this far into the race.

Also just out of curiosity and even though it's totally unrelated, what do the American posters here think of Senate Minority leader Mitch McConnell. For someone who is so influential he sure doesn't seem to stand out too much and he doesn't really seem to fit in with the demagoguery of many of his peers in the house coming across almost as mild mannered and adjusted. Is he an example of a reasonable Republican in this day and age or does he just know how to duck unwanted attention while holding the congress hostage.

He's the guy quoted publicly saying that the top priority of the GOP from 2008 forward was to make Obama a one term president. "top priority" apparently meant to the detriment of the citizenry as he led the GOP to block every bill the president supported - even ones composed entirely of GOP supported elements.

[ganbaru]

Ryan says Obama compromises Judeo-Christian values
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8A404O20121105
Two questions should be ask: ''What values did he compromise ?'' and ''Didn't republican, especialy when GWB was in power, made even worse?'' .

[Urzu 7]

Originally Posted by Vexx

He's the guy quoted publicly saying that the top priority of the GOP from 2008 forward was to make Obama a one term president. "top priority" apparently meant to the detriment of the citizenry as he led the GOP to block every bill the president supported - even ones composed entirely of GOP supported elements.

They've become public enemy number one. It is the biggest reason why I oppose the GOP and have gone on to support the democratic party.

Originally Posted by Mentar

Hilarious tidbit: Some Texan official was threatening OSCE observers with jail time should they appear at Texan polling stations.

I looked up OSCE. What is the Texan's problem? Iowa wants to follow suit with Texas. What is with them? What is their problems with the OSCE?

Originally Posted by ganbaru

Ryan says Obama compromises Judeo-Christian values
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/...8A404O20121105
Two questions should be ask: ''What values did he compromise ?'' and ''Didn't republican, especialy when GWB was in power, made even worse?'' .

It's about his stances on abortion and gay marriage. Of course, if Romney gets elected, they'll diminish the number of those being helped by welfare and screw over medicare, gyp our education systems - and our youths - even more, cater to the rich while stepping all over the middle class and lower class, stop a healthcare reform dead in it's tracks, and invade another country, possibly leading to a civil war in that country and it will lead to tens of thousands of civilians dying, possibly over a hundred thousand civilian casualties, but those things won't compromise Judeo-Christian values, right, Paul Ryan?

Paul Ryan and Romney are models for Judeo-Christian values though, what with cleaning already clean pots and pans at a soup kitchen which they weren't welcome to and loading some canned goods into a truck and saying it was for helping Hurricane Sandy victims in front of the cameras but 'shh', don't tell anyone that's not really the case...