[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

the fact that she had to sell Kinzo's books can be a hint that she had a lot of economic problems in the beginning. She might have managed to rebuild the Ushiromiya's wealth from scratch like Kinzo did before her.

This is exactly what the VN said she did so it's not really that out there. She basically did the same to other companies that they did to Hideyoshi only she did it on a whole other level to a large number of them and got rich from it. The narration says "she did it for fun".

[Renall]

I do want to point out the conversation in ep5 where Krauss is suicidal. He suggests he could quietly divorce Natsuhi so that she and Jessica could be provided for without the disaster of his financial ruin falling on them, then when Natsuhi refuses that option, seems to imply that he nevertheless considers his existence part of the problem.

The next morning, he disappears, places a call to his wife, and is killed. Given his size and bulk, I don't think he would be readily kidnapped. But if he kind of wanted to die anyway... or if the killer just followed him to his hiding place and shoved a gun in his face... Just sayin'.

[Jan-Poo]

There's a "hint" in EP1 that might have a big relevance in this case.

Krauss owns a private boat.

Now it is quite convenient that that boat isn't there for repairs. Of course you can imagine that culprit X sabotaged the boat. But you never know what the original owner would do, he might simply decide to bring it to the mechanic later, or too soon. In other words the one who more easily could deal with the boat was Krauss himself.
For whoever planned the final explosion, it is vital that the boat is taken out of the way. Because the explosion happens when the typhoon has subsided already. One could easily save himself just a few hours before the island goes boom.

@Renall
It is more probable that Krauss and Shannontrice are accomplices. Rather than thinking that there's a person X threatening both of them with a gun, it's a lot easier to think that they are in the same plot together. So in EP4 they both talk at the phone. and in EP5... well it's still shannontrice the one who talks to Natsuhi, and Krauss is just there by his own will.

Now the question is if Kyrie is one of them...

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

I do want to point out the conversation in ep5 where Krauss is suicidal. He suggests he could quietly divorce Natsuhi so that she and Jessica could be provided for without the disaster of his financial ruin falling on them, then when Natsuhi refuses that option, seems to imply that he nevertheless considers his existence part of the problem.

...actually, if he suicides without divorcing Natsuhi first, I think she'll be liable for his debts. I'm not up to digging up right now whether that is true or not, though.

[Judoh]

The big problem I have with the Krauss bomb thing is this red. Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. It should work the same way it does with Natsuhi in theory right?

I could imagine him committing suicide, but even with all his pride I don't think he'd be capable mentally to take everyone with him. He just doesn't seem like the kind of guy who would go out with "a bang" like that. Pardon the pun.

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Oliver

...actually, if he suicides without divorcing Natsuhi first, I think she'll be liable for his debts. I'm not up to digging up right now whether that is true or not, though.

Not sure about debts, but if he has life insurance she won't receive it if they declare the death a suicide.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Judoh

The big problem I have with the Krauss bomb thing is this red. Ushiromiya Krauss is not the culprit. It should work the same way it does with Natsuhi right?

"the culprit" when used in red in this manner is so vague that basically the only thing we can be certain of is "Ushiromiya Krauss did not kill anyone up to this point in the current game", which follows from it but is a severe reduction.

I'm not even sure self defence doesn't count. Notice how Virgilia separates this from "kill anyone": "Battler-kin is not the culprit. Battler-kun did not kill anyone." Wasn't the first half clear enough?

So I'm not sure that this particular red definitely precludes a Krauss bomb, though it does raise doubts about any theory that involves it.

[Jan-Poo]

It is however a valid point.

If Krauss is the one that planned the explosion, then you need to think that for what concerns Beatrice's game the "culprit" refers to the one that "kills" people before the end of the game and the final explosion is completely unrelated.

Basically this means that even if Krauss is indeed the final explosion mastermind, we still need to find the culprit.

[Renall]

Krauss has no reason to be the on-island murderer, and I don't think he'd be in willing cahoots with them. If we suppose "the culprit" is the person actually committing murders and set aside for a moment the intent (if any) behind the explosion, I think it's perfectly clear he most likely is not "the culprit."

That doesn't mean he isn't necessarily intending to damage his property or kill himself in some fashion for an unrelated end. But he isn't doing it with the requisite intent to be "the culprit."

[Oliver]

We need an effective working definition of "culprit" whenever we use that red, I think.

How about "'Culprit' is the principal, conscious, knowing cause of murder occurring on the island, whether they commit murders themselves or not" ?

[imaginari]

Personally I'd imagine that if Krauss tried to destroy the mansion, he would not only fail, but somehow cause a second mansion to spontaneously come into being.

More seriously, I'm fine with the culprit planning the explosion. We've repeatedly been told that s/he has bizarre goals, and that their avoiding easier methods of killing is evidence of that. The killer is probably willing to die, given the end of EP4, where this is one of few possible ways that everyone's bodies could be accounted for (there could also be a 19th person, or Kanon hiding very well)

And it would also explain why evidence is being hidden very well from the people on the island but not from anyone who might arrive afterward.

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by imaginari

Personally I'd imagine that if Krauss tried to destroy the mansion, he would not only fail, but somehow cause a second mansion to spontaneously come into being.

Wait. What if he tried to just kill himself... ...but spectacularly failed?

[Renall]

I wouldn't put it past Krauss.

Hey, I didn't say the other guy!

[Judoh]

Originally Posted by Oliver

Wait. What if he tried to just kill himself... ...but spectacularly failed?

I think anybody who did that would die of embarrassment. Anyone writing it would too.

[Oliver]

But consider it seriously for the moment.

What if the explosion is multistaged? That is, what if there is one explosion or even a smaller event, like a fire, with an intended result, which is planned for, accounted for and premeditated, that indirectly causes another explosion with an unintended, truly catastrophic result, due to factors the perpetrator of the first explosion has no knowledge about?

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Renall

I do want to point out the conversation in ep5 where Krauss is suicidal. He suggests he could quietly divorce Natsuhi so that she and Jessica could be provided for without the disaster of his financial ruin falling on them, then when Natsuhi refuses that option, seems to imply that he nevertheless considers his existence part of the problem.

The next morning, he disappears, places a call to his wife, and is killed. Given his size and bulk, I don't think he would be readily kidnapped. But if he kind of wanted to die anyway... or if the killer just followed him to his hiding place and shoved a gun in his face... Just sayin'.

Lol. I really think this is all a play. He wants to make his problems go away, whether it is phantom Kinzo or his debt. However, he doesn't want to put his head on the chopping block so I would think he is trying to fake some deaths to achieve this end. I don't really think he was kidnapped either.

Originally Posted by Oliver

But consider it seriously for the moment.

What if the explosion is multistaged? That is, what if there is one explosion or even a smaller event, like a fire, with an intended result, which is planned for, accounted for and premeditated, that indirectly causes another explosion with an unintended, truly catastrophic result, due to factors the perpetrator of the first explosion has no knowledge about?

Highly possible, I think that it was planned that there would be fake murders and then someone would say let's go to some hidden mansion on this island so we can be safe. The fakers would also run off to somewhere. Boom. No evidence of bodies left, kind of like ep. 3 with Eva... That's how I see it. However, real murders screw this plan up and then... Boom. Seagulls cry.

Edit: Speaking of which, if Eva found Kuwadorian then the gold is probably there. If not, it might be what 07151129 hinted to. The tip said George traded his soul for that number, maybe it means he wanted everyone to escape to Kuwadorian. The only problem with this is that there would be little reason for it to be the code to the safety deposit box.

[Leafsnail]

The numbers look kinda like coordinates, although I can't think what kind they'd correspond to. Does Japan have something like the six figure grid reference?

...Although that isn't gonna help much unless someone on the island travelled back in time with a GPS...

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Leafsnail

...Although that isn't gonna help much unless someone on the island travelled back in time with a GPS...

...or had access to whatever mapping Krauss had ample opportunity to do as part of his plan to turn the island into a resort.

[Smeckledorf]

I don't know, we have been told that the word 'corpse' may not always refer to a dead body, it is not too much of a stretch to say culprit could mean something other than murderer... who knows? However, I believe it is more than evident that someone is trying to construct fake twilights. Now, why would you do that if you are going to murder everyone anyways? You wouldn't. So, the point of faking deaths has to be a joke or meant to cover up something. If the deaths are faked to cover something up, then you would need to make a circumstance where bodies could reasonably disappear. So that the only evidence is the testimony of those who live the incident. Anyways, I just think it makes more sense for Krauss to be in the faking deaths business than the murdering one.

[Oliver]

Sort of random.

Saturday, October 4, 1986 is a new moon, 0.06% illuminated. Full moon is seen on some of the backgrounds, but as far as I remember, none of them appear outside known magic scenes anyway.

What I don't get is, how the heck is anyone able to see anything outside in the rain without a flashlight and without a moon... 25km away from the nearest small town should be about as perfectly dark as it gets.

I wonder if that was accounted for in research...