Anime Saimoe Tournament 2013 (Japan)

[ion475]

On the day Lovely My Angel is in a match I forgot to post...

Oh well, Toki and Ayase are my Picks and Predictions and I got those right...

For today:
C3-1: Pick: Azuki Azusa, Predict: Mori-sama. Nibutani, at least on paper, is stronger than Azuki Azusa. Of course, anything can happen...
D3-2: Pick/Predict: Mokkan. Another Achiga girl going out. Mokkan beat TOSHINO KYOUKO while Arata has always been one of the weaker Achiga girl

[KanbeKotori]

Originally Posted by Ichuki

Sorry about that, the way you typed it made it seem like you were against Madoka instead of neutral. I am trying to be neutral towards both factions here. To be honest I thought Matsumi siblings were giving their all but not Toki. Since her and Yui's match made it seem like both Saki and Madoka sat out on this one, I mean Toki is #1 of Saki I think. The reason why I seem to "downplay" MadoMagi's strength is that, I actually think they'll provoke the stronger factions that isn't them eventually. I mean I think they already provoked the Saki faction like a lot despite it having a load of antis. But even then I'm being very optimistic about the non MadoMagis. Since I think there are several strong non MadoMagis that might be a true threat to them because the way the MadoMagi attempt to snipe their threats seems rash enough they look like they are fearing something or someone.Personally I think I need til end of round 3 or beginning of round 4 to see a more clearer image. Since it seems like this saimoe is more unpredictable compared to 2011/12.

Well I WAS a bit against Madoka cos of the threat they possessed so you're not completely wrong. I AM okay with others winning like Eru and other non-Mado/non-Saki members that I take fancy in. I just don't like how Madoka supporters are still trying to deny that they already are dominating this tournament. Perhaps it may be Saki's fault for dominating AST badly last year that they received so much hate but there's still no reason to downplay their strength at all.

If you indeed think that the Matsumi sisters have given their all, then you shouldn't have said it as if they have been holding back like that. Like what some people say, what makes others(some of the Madoka supporters) think that Saki hasn't given their all?

Anyway perhaps you might need to wait till then to see a clearer image but looking at how things are going, Saki's chance of winning is slim.

Originally Posted by Coldlight

Next time, if you're not sure about a piece of information then don't use it as if it were a hard fact in an argument.
I'm not assuming anything. There is a strong element of agitation in your posts, so you need to calm the heck down instead of acting like you're being cornered or something. You're clearly being overly defensive about this and trying to lash out at just about everyone who is not supporting Saki by pointing fingers at them:
I don't even see it this way, coming from someone who supports the MadoMagi faction. Heck, I've went on and on about how both factions are really powerful in my posts. I don't know if you're only reading selectively (since you don't reply to some people's counterarguments and replies to your many points) or actually reading all posts, but if you did you'd know that "everyone" considering Saki is the only threat is obviously not true. I have seen enough neutral people here who are obviously not on our side, and mind you, you are not one of them despite how frequently you try to paint yourself as one.

Your signature alone already explains how you're not really neutral, so please stop claiming you are. No matter how you put it, you clearly support the Saki faction or you wouldn't have raged at the recent losses of the Matsumi sisters.

If you were to kindly see the post before AST started or when AST JUST started, you'll see I have already said that MadoMagi will be a threat and what not because of this and that. You will ALSO see people deny all this shit. I'm directing those words to them cos they are the ones who are downplaying MadoMagi's strength. If you're not one of them, then why bother with it. It's not like there aren't any who deny that MadoMagi is a threat last time. I'm just proving my point by slapping it right at their face that I was right that they are trying to downplay MadoMagi's strength. Perhaps it might be wrong of me to use an absolute statement but still there are many who downplayed MadoMagi's strength.

Like what I said last time, it's up to you to believe it or not. I AM okay with non-Mado/non-Saki members winning. If you think so otherwise, there's nothing for me to convince you anymore cos I DID give examples of girls who aren't MadoMagi and Saki that I'D PREFER them to win. I also don't deny that I am supporting Saki since I like them but you're exaggerating it too much by saying I'm NBS instead. Supporting them is one thing and being NBS is another. I don't support them till I'm NBS. If I were I would have put it in my signature.

Btw it wasn't that I was not sure, I misread the release date from their official page.

Oh I do try and reply to everyone. If I missed them out it's either there was nothing to reply to them/others already have made a point/or simply I miss them out.

If I were selectively replying people, you won't see me replying to those who are stubborn and still insist on downplaying MadoMagi's strength. I appreciate the comments and criticism I received hence I DO try my best to reply them back.

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by BloodyKitty

I don't think Homura is that unloved in the MadoMagi fanbase, but more like we have been underestimated Madoka all this time. Back in the day when the Madoka series was still airing I could understand how she was not quite popular as other MadoMagi girls due to the fact that she didn't really get to do anything important in the show until the last 3 episodes. But it's been a long time since that show had ended, and I think Madoka's character has been appreciated more and more after all this time, with her goddess image still floating around in newer fanarts and many stuff. The recent recap movies also just helped emphasize Madoka's character and goddess image so much more than before, while Homura's role, while very important, is still mostly unchanged. It won't even surprise me that at this point in time the MadoMagi fanbase views Madoka as a very important figure of the series that it is worth choosing her over Homura at any costs.

And this is coming from someone who only supports Homura and nobody else from her respective series.

Even if that was the case, I'd have expected them to at least get Homura to the last 16, considering that she was the only Puella Magi not to make it to the last 8 in 2011, and especially considering the way she was knocked out. Y'know, for her to actually get the chance in the knockout rounds that she deserved?

Or is the fanbase telling us that Homura is, for lack of a better word, disposable? I sure hope not.

Originally Posted by Triple_R

You're playing silly numbers games. 673 is 84 more than 589. It's a very comfortable margin of victory. It's not a blow-out, but it's not razor-close either.

Mami has comfortably (if not decisively) won every match she's been in, and she has achieved higher vote totals than anybody else thus far. She had the highest vote total of everybody in Round 2, and also the highest vote total of anybody in Round 3 thus far.

That is dominating.

I beg to differ. 53.328% of the total votes is nowhere near dominating. If anything, she barely won. You'd need like at least 60% of the votes (1.5 times your opponent's votes) or something before it counts as dominating, and even then that's stretching it a bit (I was thinking more of twice your opponent's votes, like 66.667% or something).

It's like saying winning 10050-9950 is a comfortable win, which it isn't (unless 50.25% of votes = comfortable win to you?). OK, that kind of vote total will never happen in AST, but you get my point.

Originally Posted by Eisdrache

Pretty funny what conclusions people come up with. PMMM's success rate is 60%, I don't know how many characters Saki had but certainly more than 15. Also when you have a high rate among a low total the quality of each individual is higher compared to an average rate of a high total.

Yeah, that's how frivolous the Saki fanbase is. It's high time they stopped.

And I think that time is coming soon. It has to, or else it'll be too little too late for them.


@KanbeKotori: No offence, but you sound anything but neutral there. (Also, you're clearly NBS, given how you're downplaying Saki's strength. )

I believe I have sufficiently explained as to why I believe that Saki fans aren't giving their all. Because they didn't feel like they needed to. And all signs so far point towards that being the truth. Such as them still having a lot more characters than MadoMagi in the running.

That said, I expect them to start getting serious from next round onwards because it doesn't seem like many of the round 3 Saki girls will make it to the group final. Only then can you really say whether you're right or not. If they don't (which is just as likely to happen), then well, it's their loss, but in no way is this their true strength. For all you know, if Ayase had not knocked out Homura and Madoka MadoMagi might actually go on to lose Saimoe, because they didn't have any wake-up calls whatsoever.

I wouldn't even be surprised if they let Toki lose to Mami on purpose so their other girls can sneak under the radar and pull off a victory. Of course, if the MadoMagi fanbase knew to snipe Kuro through Miho (not that they'd have done if Ayase had not beaten Homura and Madoka), then this kind of trick might be right up their alley too. ("Hey, let's make Mami really really strong and then suddenly make her lose to Toki on purpose then all the attention will be on Saki and their girls will be sniped and ours will have an easier time! As for Mami, er... repechage!")

I'm starting to look forward to both fanbases sniping their own characters now.

But that doesn't mean that I'll definitely be right. The only way to verify that, is on the match itself.

Otherwise, everything is just speculation. So I'd advise you to tone it down some.

[KanbeKotori]

Originally Posted by Subayai

I honestly think that Miho would have won even if Mami's match had been on another day. The thing is that she would have won with something like 350 votes and Kuro would have had only about 300 votes.

The fact that Mami was in a fiercely contested match against Yuu boosted the participation and, in turn, this boosted the number of Miho's votes, but at the same time it also boosted the number of Kuro's votes. The number of votes went up for both of them but this did not necessarily change the outcome of the match.

Look at the number of votes that Kuro had on rounds 1 and 2: only 226 and 302 votes. On both cases, she had less votes than Miho. If Miho was able to beat Ako on a day when Ako was boosted by Toki, there is no reason to think that she could not beat Kuro by herself. Specially since this year Ako looked at least as strong or maybe even stronger than Kuro.

Besides, a match with a very high participation is the fairest of all matches. On a day like this, "everyone" is there to vote: including all Saki fans. So, if in a day when everyone is there, there are more people who prefer Miho over Kuro, that victory is as fair as it can be.

Okay I forgot about your post so I'm terribly sorry about it(If I don't apologise it'll seem like I'm selectively replying to people)

Anyway going back to your point, sure, Kuro got less votes than Miho for round 1 and 2 but Kuro, at that point of time, she needn't need to face strong opponents(correct me if I'm wrong). Against stronger opponents obviously you need more votes and since GuP suffered from the start and left Miho in the tourney, obviously they are desperate to push their girl as far as possible. I don't think Ako is as strong as Kuro since despite being boosted by Toki her vote count is rather pathetic.

The fact that Mami is present did increase the overall votes but the number of votes received by Miho in Mami's present is sure to be higher than that of Kuro. Unless you can prove that they both receive an equal amount of votes in Mami's presence you cannot utterly deny that the outcome won't be changed.

For your last point sure, if that's true than why is there STILL some people saying that Saki hasn't given their all? Given how heavy the sniping attempts were on them early on, it doesn't make sense not to give their all to counter the hate they received.

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

Even if that was the case, I'd have expected them to at least get Homura to the last 16, considering that she was the only Puella Magi not to make it to the last 8 in 2011, and especially considering the way she was knocked out. Y'know, for her to actually get the chance in the knockout rounds that she deserved?

Or is the fanbase telling us that Homura is, for lack of a better word, disposable? I sure hope not.



I beg to differ. 53.328% of the total votes is nowhere near dominating. If anything, she barely won. You'd need like at least 60% of the votes (1.5 times your opponent's votes) or something before it counts as dominating, and even then that's stretching it a bit (I was thinking more of twice your opponent's votes, like 66.667% or something).

It's like saying winning 10050-9950 is a comfortable win, which it isn't (unless 50.25% of votes = comfortable win to you?). OK, that kind of vote total will never happen in AST, but you get my point.



Yeah, that's how frivolous the Saki fanbase is. It's high time they stopped.

And I think that time is coming soon. It has to, or else it'll be too little too late for them.

@KanbeKotori: No offence, but you sound anything but neutral there. (Also, you're clearly NBS, given how you're downplaying Saki's strength. )


I believe I have sufficiently explained as to why Saki fans aren't giving their all. Because they didn't feel like they needed to, and all signs so far point towards that being the truth.

I wouldn't even be surprised if they let Toki lose to Mami on purpose so their other girls can sneak under the radar and pull off a victory. Of course, if the MadoMagi fanbase knew to snipe Kuro through Miho (not that they'd have done if Ayase had not beaten Homura and Madoka), then this kind of trick might be right up their alley too. ("Hey, let's make Mami really really strong and then suddenly make her lose to Toki on purpose then all the attention will be on Saki and their girls will be sniped and ours will have an easier time! As for Mami, er... repechage!")

I'm starting to look forward to both fanbases sniping their own characters now.

But that doesn't mean that I'll definitely be right. The only way to verify that, is on the match itself.

The only way to definitively verify which faction is the strongest, is after the whole tournament ends. Otherwise, everything is just speculation. So I'd advise you to tone it down some.

Well if you ever considered what TRE have mentioned, it'll absolutely make no sense for them to give up on their finalist and aim to support other girls since I doubt that they can even boost the performance of the weaker girls. Think of it as in ISML. There is no reason to just give up one of your triumph card just so you can fool people. The chances of the plan backfiring is almost close to 1.

I don't think I'm downplaying Saki's strength unless I'm being fooled as well by them but going by how things are, the hate that they received is something they cannot cope in the long run.

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

Well if you ever considered what TRE have mentioned, it'll absolutely make no sense for them to give up on their finalist and aim to support other girls since I doubt that they can even boost the performance of the weaker girls. Think of it as in ISML. There is no reason to just give up one of your triumph card just so you can fool people. The chances of the plan backfiring is almost close to 1.

I don't think I'm downplaying Saki's strength unless I'm being fooled as well by them but going by how things are, the hate that they received is something they cannot cope in the long run.

I only said they'll give up the match-up for the girl. I never said they'll give up on the whole Saimoe for that girl. One word: repechage. Good enough?

Like I said, it's not about boosting the performance of the other girls. It's about making them stand out less so they'll be less likely to get sniped. Which is possible, and does make sense. "The nail that sticks up will be hammered down", is it? Or something along those lines.

If they're really as strong as they are, then they'll no doubt earn their spot in the last 16 through the revival rounds with ease. Besides, a past champion would stick out more than anyone else, which means Mami and Toki are more susceptible to getting sniped (especially in the later rounds), which puts their chances of winning again lower. Better to sacrifice someone who's gonna get sniped anyway, and let another girl win, then try to go for the repeat champion and sacrifice the other girls and end up losing her in later rounds. Having the past champion have to qualify through repechage will also remove attention from herself, at least in part, because she'll be perceived to be weaker than before and thus less of a threat.

But really, if Saki do pull it off they have a decent chance of diverting at least half the hate they're receiving, to MadoMagi.

But if both teams don't come up with this strategy then it's MadoMagi's loss overall, because going by current momentum Mami will beat Toki, and MadoMagi's girls will thus be more susceptible to sniping, leaving Saki freer to dominate.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

I beg to differ. 53.328% of the total votes is nowhere near dominating. If anything, she barely won.

What's the more dominating victory in a baseball game - 2-1 or 10-5? Heck, let's even go a bit farther - 2-1 or 9-5? I think most pro sports fans would consider the 9-5 victory the more dominating one even though the percentage difference is actually less in a 9-5 win than in a 2-1 win.

With that in mind, there is value in absolute vote differential. Percentages tell part of the story, but only part of it.

Besides, you're focusing too much on one lone match. Mami is currently dominating the tournament, imo. She's winning all of her matches, she's doing so comfortably (and decisively in Round 2), and she's reaching heights that no other girl in this tournament has yet to reach.

So I think that you and Ichuki are a bit off-base on this. Mami is dominating the tournament right now. I honestly don't get why this is so hard for people to admit to. Let me make it clear that I'm not saying that Mami can't be beat by anyone. There's all sorts of X Factors in this tournament - Rikka, Shinka, Miho, Watashi, etc... There's no knowing how strong some of these girls might actually be.

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

What's the more dominating victory in a baseball game - 2-1 or 10-5?

With that in mind, there is value in absolute vote differential. Percentages tell part of the story, but only part of it.

Besides, you're focusing too much on one lone match. Mami is currently dominating the tournament, imo. She's winning all of her matches, she's doing so comfortably (and decisively in Round 2), and she's reaching heights that no other girl in this tournament has yet to reach.

So I think that you and Ichuki are a bit off-base on this. Mami is dominating the tournament right now. I honestly don't get why this is so hard for people to admit to. Let me make it clear that I'm not saying that Mami can't be beat by anyone. There's all sorts of X Factors in this tournament - Rikka, Shinka, Miho, Watashi, etc... There's no knowing how strong some of these girls might actually be.

Of course 10-5, but judging by absolute difference is different from judging by ratios. For example, 5-0 or 10-5. Or even 1-0 or 10-9. Also, I believe voting uses a different mechanism of judging domination from sports.

I never said she wasn't dominating the tournament. She is, because MadoMagi's getting serious. I'm saying that she wasn't dominating that particular match. For all we know, she could be against the 2nd or 3rd best girl in the whole tournament or something, and that girl was unlucky enough to meet Mami this early in the tournament. Unless the gulf between 1st and 2nd is really big, there's no way Mami's going to dominate such a match.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

I never said she wasn't dominating the tournament. She is, because MadoMagi's going all out from here. I'm saying that she wasn't dominating that particular match.

Ok, I can agree to that compromise. No, she didn't dominate that particular match. Yuu lost quite respectably.

[Ichuki]

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

Well I WAS a bit against Madoka cos of the threat they possessed so you're not completely wrong. I AM okay with others winning like Eru and other non-Mado/non-Saki members that I take fancy in. I just don't like how Madoka supporters are still trying to deny that they already are dominating this tournament. Perhaps it may be Saki's fault for dominating AST badly last year that they received so much hate but there's still no reason to downplay their strength at all.

If you indeed think that the Matsumi sisters have given their all, then you shouldn't have said it as if they have been holding back like that. Like what some people say, what makes others(some of the Madoka supporters) think that Saki hasn't given their all?

Anyway perhaps you might need to wait till then to see a clearer image but looking at how things are going, Saki's chance of winning is slim.

For that one sorry again since I just woke up when I wrote that and of course I had a brain fart and forgot about the Matsumis going their all. Yeah I also do think Saki has a smaller chance than Madoka when it comes to winning. To be honest I don't think any strong faction in here should be downplayed at all, hell even the one woman armies in here.

[D-Joe]

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

Okay I forgot about your post so I'm terribly sorry about it(If I don't apologise it'll seem like I'm selectively replying to people)

Anyway going back to your point, sure, Kuro got less votes than Miho for round 1 and 2 but Kuro, at that point of time, she needn't need to face strong opponents(correct me if I'm wrong).

Well Miho's first round opponents were not really strong

[BloodyKitty]

Originally Posted by Triple_R

Really? There's nobody else from Madoka Magica that you like?

Not quite true. Actually, I like all the girls in MadoMagi each in their own way. It's just that, when it comes to Homura, it's different... In fact she's is one of the few girls in recent anime series that I personally truly love as a character even after years gone by. And also, if you can't tell, generally I am against series domination in Saimoe, so MadoMagi in 2011 and Saki in 2012 displeased me a lot. Honestly I do not want the girls in these series to win the championship again. But well, Homura is the only special case that can get past that bias of mine, since she is the only one from the series I would want to do well no matter what. Even if she didn't win championship, which is fine with me as of now, I want her to have an amazing tourney that isn't inferior to any other girls in the series. That's why her unfair exit in 2011 and being bussed in this year's split vote match made me really furious, you have no idea. I just don't want to vent my upset on you guys so I don't really say anything, that's all.

About the other girls, I think their performance back in 2011 was already stellar enough so this year I give the support to other series. The only girl other than Homura that I don't mind supporting is Kyouko, but she already had her chance at the championship in 2011 and you already know MadoMagi fanbase chose Mami as the winner, so I won't give much support to her anymore. It's still fine to me if she wins matches though. But as I said, I don't want MadoMagi girls to get away with the championship again.

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

Even if that was the case, I'd have expected them to at least get Homura to the last 16, considering that she was the only Puella Magi not to make it to the last 8 in 2011, and especially considering the way she was knocked out. Y'know, for her to actually get the chance in the knockout rounds that she deserved?

Or is the fanbase telling us that Homura is, for lack of a better word, disposable? I sure hope not.

Okay, now it's pretty much a fact now that the fanbase chose Madoka over Homura in that split vote match, said and done. Now imagine if the one who share the split vote match with Homura is not Madoka, but either Kyouko or Sayaka, then do you think the fanbase will ditch Homura? In Madoka vs Homura case, I can think of some factors that make ditching Homura to be acceptable, but not with Sayaka and Kyouko, so I would want to say that it's most likely not, but the real answer is: we will never know. From all I can see from most of the matches the MadoMagi girls have fought, the fanbase have always been very consistent in supporting all 5 girls that most of the time I can't tell who is stronger than who. And when it comes to the split vote matches, it's just simply the choice of the fanbase to ditch which girl, which does not really indicates the real strength of the girl being ditched.

[Coldlight]

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

Perhaps it might be wrong of me to use an absolute statement but still there are many who downplayed MadoMagi's strength.

Many is still different from everyone, agree? Making sweeping generalizations don't really make your arguments any stronger or convince more people about your point.

Many =/= Everyone

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

I also don't deny that I am supporting Saki

So you finally realize and admit you're not neutral. Kudos to that. I'm not the one being blind here or the only one who pointed out that "neutral" thing about your sig.

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

since I like them but you're exaggerating it too much by saying I'm NBS instead. Supporting them is one thing and being NBS is another. I don't support them till I'm NBS. If I were I would have put it in my signature.

When and where did I say you were NBS? Just because I said you supported the Saki faction didn't mean you're NBS. Supporting a faction is still different from supporting only that faction. Please don't put words in my mouth. For example, I may be a supporter of the MadoMagi faction, but that doesn't mean I'm NBM. I still have other girls who I'd be fine to see win it all.

Originally Posted by KanbeKotori

Oh I do try and reply to everyone. If I missed them out it's either there was nothing to reply to them/others already have made a point/or simply I miss them out.

That's very good to know.

Nearly forgot to post my picks.
Picks:
Azusa Azuki @ HenNeko
abstain

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by BloodyKitty

Okay, now it's pretty much a fact now that the fanbase chose Madoka over Homura in that split vote match, said and done. Now imagine if the one who share the split vote match with Homura is not Madoka, but either Kyouko or Sayaka, then do you think the fanbase will ditch Homura? In Madoka vs Homura case, I can think of some factors that make ditching Homura to be acceptable, but not with Sayaka and Kyouko, so I would want to say that it's most likely not, but the real answer is: we will never know. From all I can see from most of the matches the MadoMagi girls have fought, the fanbase have always been very consistent in supporting all 5 girls that most of the time I can't tell who is stronger than who. And when it comes to the split vote matches, it's just simply the choice of the fanbase to ditch which girl, which does not really indicates the real strength of the girl being ditched.

Maybe they decided it a la Schrödinger's cat... which means both girls had a 50% chance of being ditched.

Hopefully if ever the same kind of thing occurs again and it's either Homura or another Puella Magi, Homura won't get the short end of the stick again...

[BloodyKitty]

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

Maybe they decided it a la Schrödinger's cat... which means both girls had a 50% chance of being ditched.

Hopefully if ever the same kind of thing occurs again and it's either Homura or another Puella Magi, Homura won't get the short end of the stick again...

I can imagine that in the day before the split vote match, the MadoMagi fanbase used coin tossing to determine which girl to support, and it just happened to land on Madoka's side .

Homura sure had such a stroke of bad luck in everything . Though I think she didn't't mind as long as Madoka is well and alive, yet in the end her sacrifice still amounted to almost nothing

[Gohan78]

Originally Posted by BloodyKitty

I can imagine that in the day before the split vote match, the MadoMagi fanbase used coin tossing to determine which girl to support, and it just happened to land on Madoka's side .

I think that many Homura fans decided that Homura would not want to "kill" Madoka but she'd rather sacrifice herself to let her best friend advance.
Unfortunately for the MadoMagi faction, not all of Homura's supporters thought like that and both girls fell victim to the split vote. I am also quite displeased with this outcome because not only is Homura my favourite of the MadoMagi girls but she deserved a better outcome after being cheated out of the tournament in 2011.
Actually in 2011 I was supporting Madoka because I thought it would be nice if the three main girls from the three iconic mahou shoujo series of the last decades (CC Sakura, MSL Nanoha and MadoMagi) all became Saimoe champions. Alas, it was not to be. Madoka still has a chance this year due to repechage but the road is extremely difficult for her.

I think that the Saki girls are more hated than the Madoka girls for two reasons:
1) Saki dominated in 2012 while Madoka dominated in 2011, so Sakimoe 2012 is fresher in the minds of the voters;
2) Due the their sheer number of entrees, Saki claimed 9 out of 16 spots in the Group finals, 6 out of 8 in the QF and 4 out of 4 (!!) in the SF. Such a level of domination was unseen and I hope it will never be seen again. I say this despite Toki was my pick and prediction before the tournament. I think that she is a deserving Saimoe champion but seeing Saki vs Saki match again and again was no fun.

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite

It's silly to say letting your 2nd and 3rd strongest go down is okay because you still have your 7th and 8th best. Saki, Ryuuka, Arata, Shizuno and Kirame have virtually no chance to win the tournament. The hopes of the Saki fanbase rested squarely on Toki, Yuu, Kuro and possibly Nodoka. Two of those four are now in fighting to even reach repechage and I'm not entirely sure Nodoka has what it takes to begin with. If the Saki fanbase wasn't seriously supporting Kuro and Yuu, they screwed up badly. Toki should get full support as well because of how bad things will be if she loses but I guess Yui wasn't really much of a threat to begin with.

Agree. Saki has little chance at winning this tournament at this point. Maybe 10-15% or so...?

Though I think you might be underestimating Shizuno's potential just a little.

Originally Posted by BloodyKitty

I don't think Homura is that unloved in the MadoMagi fanbase, but more like we have been underestimated Madoka all this time. Back in the day when the Madoka series was still airing I could understand how she was not quite popular as other MadoMagi girls due to the fact that she didn't really get to do anything important in the show until the last 3 episodes. But it's been a long time since that show had ended, and I think Madoka's character has been appreciated more and more after all this time, with her goddess image still floating around in newer fanarts and many stuff. The recent recap movies also just helped emphasize Madoka's character and goddess image so much more than before, while Homura's role, while very important, is still mostly unchanged. It won't even surprise me that at this point in time the MadoMagi fanbase views Madoka as a very important figure of the series that it is worth choosing her over Homura at any costs.

And this is coming from someone who only supports Homura and nobody else from her respective series.

This may well be the case, but I also wonder if the fans just weren't sure who to support and chose Madoka because she seemed "safer" as the main character.

If it were just a 1v1 match between Madoka and Homura, who would have won? Hard to say, but one thing for sure is that Madoka wouldn't have gotten more than double the votes that Homura did.

[AP24]

Here's how I want Groups C and D matches to go:

Both Round 3 matches in Group C are tough to predict. Azuki Azusa and Rikka are my picks. But it will be interesting if the Group C final will be Mori Summer vs. Tyrant’s Eye. If that happens I want Nibutani to win so that Origami, Ika Musume and Azuki Azusa can go to the Losers Block along with Rikka.

Both Round 3 matches in Group D also seem to be tough to predict. Saki and Tomoka are my picks. I prefer Tomoka wins the group block so that TOSHINOU KYOUKO can go to the Losers Block. It will also be interesting to see Tomoka beat a Saki character twice in a row at this stage.

[iamadooddood]

Originally Posted by Gohan78

I think that many Homura fans decided that Homura would not want to "kill" Madoka but she'd rather sacrifice herself to let her best friend advance.
Unfortunately for the MadoMagi faction, not all of Homura's supporters thought like that and both girls fell victim to the split vote. I am also quite displeased with this outcome because not only is Homura my favourite of the MadoMagi girls but she deserved a better outcome after being cheated out of the tournament in 2011.
Actually in 2011 I was supporting Madoka because I thought it would be nice if the three main girls from the three iconic mahou shoujo series of the last decades (CC Sakura, MSL Nanoha and MadoMagi) all became Saimoe champions. Alas, it was not to be. Madoka still has a chance this year due to repechage but the road is extremely difficult for her.

I find it hard to believe that this is the case. While Homura is willing to sacrifice herself for Madoka, that's not how Saimoe works. What should have been done was to gauge the strength of the girls who still have a chance because of repechage. Homura having the support of the Nanoha fans in that round, would have been boosted by this fact. Maybe the fanbase deemed Yukari to be stronger than Nanoha?

But if you were right, and if the MadoMagi fanbase picked Madoka over Homura because of this, then they deserved the loss.

...

Or did they actually plan to sacrifice two of their girls to give themselves a wake up call...

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Agree. Saki has little chance at winning this tournament at this point. Maybe 10-15% or so...?

Though I think you might be underestimating Shizuno's potential just a little.

I get this feeling that Saki's true strength can only be calculated at the end of this Saimoe. There are far too many variables in play right now for us to calculate.

Besides, MadoMagi's early strength may very well be their undoing in later rounds. Sniping hello.

Originally Posted by Wanderer

This may well be the case, but I also wonder if the fans just weren't sure who to support and chose Madoka because she seemed "safer" as the main character.

If it were just a 1v1 match between Madoka and Homura, who would have won? Hard to say, but one thing for sure is that Madoka wouldn't have gotten more than double the votes that Homura did.

Homura would actually have been the safer choice, because of sympathy votes.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Matches: C3-2 D3-1

A tough match between Kyouko and Rikka. Rikka is one of the few charcters outside of Madoka and Saki that might have an actual shot at winning the tournament. Kyouko already faced and was beaten by Shinka in preliminary 8. I think the Puella Magi have looked too good recently to lose here. I don't think it will be an easy match but Kyouko will probably win. Ryuuka barely beating Komari last round was uninspiring. Even if it was due to split votes, Saki winning was a lot more impressive. I'd love to see Ryuuka win here but I don't expect it to happen.

Votes:
Takanashi Rikka
Shimizudani Ryuuka

Predictions:
Sakura Kyouko
Miyanaga Saki

[Triple_R]

@BloodyKitty - Thanks for the informative answer. That's certainly clear and fair enough.

Originally Posted by Gohan78

I think that many Homura fans decided that Homura would not want to "kill" Madoka but she'd rather sacrifice herself to let her best friend advance.

I agree. That was my theory at the time, and it still is.

I think that Homura vs. Madoka is a very rare match where there's no question that one girl would sacrifice herself for the sake of her opponent (and where that's so core a part of the anime both girls are from that it simply can't be ignored). If you're a fan of the self-sacrificing girl, do you vote for her because she's your girl, or do you vote for the other girl since that's what your girl would want you to do? It's pretty meta, of course, but I can see it playing on people's minds to the point that most Homura voters just couldn't bring themselves to vote against Madoka.