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Old 2010-08-04, 05:36   Link #15221
Qaenyin
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Judoh View Post
Zepar and Furfur said "ruler of this world" not ruler of this island. And "world" obviously refers to the meta world. They actually say "true ruler" to make it a sure thing that it's not Erika.
My mistake.

Either way, it's referring to Beatrice, certainly, and stating that Beatrice(Meta-Beatrice) was born in 1967(19 years ago). This means what whomever Meta-beatrice represents must be no younger than 19 years old(well, 18 technically if they were born after the date of the epitaph killings in 1967). Shannon is 16, therefore Meta-Beatrice(and hence, whomever is responsible for all of this junk) cannot possibly be Shannon, Shkanon or otherwise.

This is not to say Shannon doesn't have some sort of Beatrice complex, but whoever triggered this chain of events must have been alive at that time. If not then it discards the meta-world as a metaphor entirely, which makes no sense as unless it's meant to imply something Zepar and Furfur's line is completely extraneous.

Edit for clarification:
What I mean is that unless the meta-world has correlation with the real world(as a metaphor), then it can't be relied upon as a source of information. I would certainly agree Ronove must have been trying to help Battler by giving him this hint. However, I don't think it wise to assume just because it's a hint that it must(or even should) be taken at face value.
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Old 2010-08-04, 07:00   Link #15222
Jan-Poo
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There is no person whose age is supposed to be 19 years. Therefore any reasoning based on the fact that "person X doesn't have 19 years" doesn't work. Obviously someone among the main cast has 19 years and for some reasons the real age was changed.

However the only persons that can realistically be that 19 years old ruler of the metaworld are:

Battler
Jessica
Shannon
Kanon

Still it doesn't make sense that Battler is Beatrice, and actually we have a red that confirms it in EP4, so guess what we are left with Jessica, Shannon and Kanon.
So in the end the chances that Shkanon is Beatrice are actually higher than in any other case.


As for the red text you quoted.

-There is no hint of any hidden mansion in Rokkenjima beside the Kuwadorian, there is no reason to think Ronove didn't mean the Kuwadorian itself. Additionaly Kawabata's perspective confirms that there was a woman in that house around that time. It is totally unreasonable to think about some kind of other never mentioned hidden mansion, but even in that remote case that still doesn't affect the existence of "Beatrice".

-That the person referred as "Beatrice" was actually named "Beatrice" is not the issue. She was considered Beatrice for a reason or another and that's what matters. The red text that confirms that the conversation between Kinzo and Beatrice that we have seen actually happened, confirms that this "Beatrice" was made to think she was Beatrice even though she doubted it.

-That very same red leaves no doubts that that person was alive, because you can't possibly have a conversation with a dead person. Additionally Kawabata's perspective confirms that there was a woman there in kuwadorian which most probably stopped to be there for some reasons.

-Another red confirms that "that Beatrice" definitely died. Even if some nitpicker points out that it was never said when she died, she nonetheless died, and both Kawabata's perspective and Rosa's perspective confirm that it happened around the year 1967.

So we have at least 3 different sources that all tell us that a woman existed in Kuwadorian in 1967 and died around that time.

If you want to cling on that 5% of chances that this might all be a ruse, it's your call, but the burden to logically justify this deceit lies onto you.

When there is such a high level of evidences you need to give an explanation as to why all of these evidences should be ignored.
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Old 2010-08-04, 07:14   Link #15223
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
There is no person whose age is supposed to be 19 years. Therefore any reasoning based on the fact that "person X doesn't have 19 years" doesn't work. Obviously someone among the main cast has 19 years and for some reasons the real age was changed.
Wait a moment.

What if the supposed "19 year old ruler of the story" is in fact a character in the mind of someone who is older than 19 years.

Like, maybe, George, who was five years old at the time. What if Umineko is not just a "coming out of the closet" story, but George's coming out of the closet story?
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Old 2010-08-04, 07:25   Link #15224
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Because if we are talking about meta-age Beatrice has a thousand years. It just doesn't make sense that she has two fantasized ages. Therefore those 19 years must be the real world age, plus the fact that this totally matches with that child Natsuhi was given by Kinzo can't be ignored so easily.
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Old 2010-08-04, 07:26   Link #15225
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How about Amakusa Juuza? Isn't it possible he was 19 in 1986, which is the year that counts?
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Old 2010-08-04, 07:33   Link #15226
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Because if we are talking about meta-age Beatrice has a thousand years. It just doesn't make sense that she has two fantasized ages.
It does make sense if different ages apply to different time measurement contexts. One other fictional character, though not in Umineko, used to say, "I was either born yesterday or I'm as old as written word, take your pick."

I was quite serious about George, you know. Every role has been tried for George, from culprit to mastermind to innocent bystander, but a fictional Beatrice can live in any brain.
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Old 2010-08-04, 07:57   Link #15227
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There's been many who theorized that Amakusa is the man of 19 years before, however I can't really imagine him as the true ruler of the gameboard.
Plus Amakusa doesn't seem the kind of person that ever used "boku" to refer to himself (at least not when he was 19 years old), unless in those 12 years he had a complete change of character.


Now about George as Beatrice, well it makes things difficult to explain. Because you'd need to think there is another Beatrice at the same time.
George couldn't be the person that Battler has seen in EP4, unless you pull the waxwork statue body double trick.
There are also hints that Beatrice is living in the island, and overall it is hard to explain how the Beatrice that interacted with Maria is George.

So even supposing that George is Beatrice you need to think there's another Beatrice that takes the roles that George can't possibly have taken.

But for Occam's razor sake it's a lot easier to think that Shannon is Beatrice, and you do not need multiple Beatrices with her.
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Old 2010-08-04, 08:04   Link #15228
Oliver
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Now about George as Beatrice, well it makes things difficult to explain. Because you'd need to think there is another Beatrice at the same time.
That Beatrice would be Shannon who's in love with him, which he exploits.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
But for Occam's razor sake it's a lot easier to think that Shannon is Beatrice, and you do not need multiple Beatrices with her.
If you apply motivations normally ascribed to Shkanontrice to Georgetrice instead they work just as well, but the drama level goes up.
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Old 2010-08-04, 08:30   Link #15229
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The "Beatrice Succession" theory is not as crack-addled as it might initially appear, if only because there is an apparent chain of connection between all critical figures:
  • Kumasawa-as-Virgilia seems to have known Beatrice-1967.
  • Rosa claims to have met (and caused the death of) Beatrice-1967.
  • Rosa and Kumasawa are friendly.
  • Rosa and Shannon are friendly.
  • Kanon (either part of Shannon or perhaps a Beatrice candidate himself) views Kumasawa fondly.
Rosa is also one of the few characters given an associated "witch persona" and one of the few to get a "magical name," if only in TIPS. Granted, this persona is apparently not Beatrice, but perhaps she became the Black Witch ROSA upon passing the title.

If you wanted, you could say Beatrice-1 (if she was a person) passed away and Kumasawa took on the role of "Beatrice" to educate Beatrice-1967, whose death passed the secret of the legend on to Rosa, who in turn passed it on to Shannon. They need not have done so intentionally. The Beatrice created after 1980 might have had nothing to do with it. In a Doubletrice theory, the Beatrice created then is distinct from the one fostering the witch legend anyway.
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Old 2010-08-04, 09:12   Link #15230
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Battler is 18 by the way, he can't be 'the man from 19 years ago'.
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Old 2010-08-04, 09:51   Link #15231
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Got a lot to catch up on here, so lets start from the most recent.

Quote:
Originally Posted by LaplaceNoMa View Post
Battler is 18 by the way, he can't be 'the man from 19 years ago'.
http://umineko.wikia.com/wiki/Battler Battler is 19.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
It does make sense if different ages apply to different time measurement contexts. One other fictional character, though not in Umineko, used to say, "I was either born yesterday or I'm as old as written word, take your pick.
Valid point, however there had to have been some relevance to the statement "The ruler of this world was born 19 years ago." You don't just write statements like that to the story if they're both figuratively AND literally irrelevant, especially a story like this. It stands to reason that this means that some aspect of Beatrice(Either Beatrice herself, the legend of Beatrice, the current Beatrice, whoever is pretending to be Beatrice, or whomever is perpetrating the Illusion of the Witch in 1986, or any combination of the above, must be 19 years old at minimum and have been figuratively if not literally born in 1967).

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oliver View Post
Wait a moment.

What if the supposed "19 year old ruler of the story" is in fact a character in the mind of someone who is older than 19 years.
This is originally half of what I was getting at. The character represented by Meta-Beatrice must have been born on, or prior to, the year 1967.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
There is no person whose age is supposed to be 19 years. Therefore any reasoning based on the fact that "person X doesn't have 19 years" doesn't work. Obviously someone among the main cast has 19 years and for some reasons the real age was changed.
See above, the character need not have been born 19 years ago, although them being born 19 years ago would make it even more plausible than it is. "Beatrice" as an aspect of the person, is all that needs to be exactly 19 years old. The person themselves can be that old or older. For example if Eva was Beatrice, it would still apply provided she started "being" Beatrice 19 years ago, meaning Beatrice was "born" 19 years ago.

The other half of my point was that it's important not to take the Red for granted, as every statement in Red only needs to be figuratively true, NOT literally true. Allow me to concoct a hypothetical situation for this particular Red Truth to use as an example(this is not a theory, just an example of how one could work):

Mystery character X(who Beatrice represents the/a personality of), lives on Rokkenjima in Kuwadorian. They don't think they're Beatrice. One day, in 1967, they're out for a walk and fall off a cliff. They hit their head on a rock and then suffer amnesia. Kinzo finds them, sees they have blond hair and goes "Oh god Beatrice you came back!". They, having no memories, are then brought up by Kinzo to believe they're Beatrice. Figuratively speaking, they(their identity) "died" on that day in 1967(After all, Beatrice said "I died", not "Beatrice died", thus it could be interpreted theoretically that she was referring to "The me I was before I was Beatrice"). Figuratively speaking, "Beatrice", the identity they assumed after their previous identity "died", was "born" in 1967 as a result of Kinzo brainwashing them.

Note I am not saying this, or anything resembling this, happened. It's simply an example of how a Red Truth commonly assumed to be literal can be taken VERY VERY differently from how it is stated, while still remaining technically true.
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Old 2010-08-04, 09:52   Link #15232
CainSonozaki
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Quote:
Originally Posted by LaplaceNoMa View Post
Battler is 18 by the way, he can't be 'the man from 19 years ago'.
Well if you think by birthdate. But if you think in years it's possible. For example I was born in 1988. 22 years later its 2010, but i'm 21 because my birthday is september 20.
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Old 2010-08-04, 10:04   Link #15233
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CainSonozaki View Post
Well if you think by birthdate. But if you think in years it's possible. For example I was born in 1988. 22 years later its 2010, but i'm 21 because my birthday is september 20.
Battler's birthday is before the conference, in July. So he's 18 in 1986, not turning 19 in 1986.

As for Qaenyin: you're quoting a fanmade wikipedia article. In the game Battler states in EP 1 that he is five years younger than George, who is 23.
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Old 2010-08-04, 10:05   Link #15234
LaplaceNoMa
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qaenyin View Post
Well you should probably stop believing this source, because Battler is 18, period.
If anything, he can even be 17.

Episode one:

Quote:
He's five years older than me, so he's probably turning 23 this year.
Do some simple math. Battler already had his birthday that year, and by 'turning this year' he means that George's birthday didn't occur yet that year. So at the time of the family conference (4th October), George is 22. He's 5 years older than Battler. Therefore, Battler is either 17 or 18.

Period.
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Old 2010-08-04, 10:47   Link #15235
Jan-Poo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Qaenyin View Post
Got a lot to catch up on here, so lets start from the most recent.

http://umineko.wikia.com/wiki/Battler Battler is 19.
the wikia site is not a reliable source of informations.

however

Quote:
Originally Posted by LaplacenoMA
Do some simple math. Battler already had his birthday that year, and by 'turning this year' he means that George's birthday didn't occur yet that year. So at the time of the family conference (4th October), George is 22. He's 5 years older than Battler. Therefore, Battler is either 17 or 18.

Period.
Considering that Battler's official birth status is a lie, that level of certainty about Battler's real age you show is not really justified.

I don't mean to say that Battler is 19 years old. Personally I don't believe it, but a "period" on this issue cannot be placed.


Quote:
Originally Posted by LaplacenoMa
See above, the character need not have been born 19 years ago, although them being born 19 years ago would make it even more plausible than it is. "Beatrice" as an aspect of the person, is all that needs to be exactly 19 years old. The person themselves can be that old or older. For example if Eva was Beatrice, it would still apply provided she started "being" Beatrice 19 years ago, meaning Beatrice was "born" 19 years ago.
I already explained that this highly improbable. By denying that Beatrice is actually 19 years old you just ignore too many stuff that perfectly match, to follow a way more far-fetched theory.
Why Eva or George need to be Beatrice? Does it even make sense? Are there even enough hints?

Quote:
Originally Posted by LaplacenoMa
The other half of my point was that it's important not to take the Red for granted, as every statement in Red only needs to be figuratively true, NOT literally true
Is that a point? I'm ready to bet 99% of the people here do not believe at all that red must be true only "figuratively".
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Old 2010-08-04, 10:57   Link #15236
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jan-Poo View Post
Because if we are talking about meta-age Beatrice has a thousand years. It just doesn't make sense that she has two fantasized ages. Therefore those 19 years must be the real world age, plus the fact that this totally matches with that child Natsuhi was given by Kinzo can't be ignored so easily.
Well I was thinking that a mental year may have gone by for Battler in the time it took to make 6 games. So it might not be his actual age.
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Old 2010-08-04, 11:05   Link #15237
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Out of regards, didn't Zepar and Furfur say something significant about the number 19, during the Love Duel? It was the required steps to walk out, but they also said something on how it relates to the tale. Or was it 6?
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Old 2010-08-04, 11:08   Link #15238
Jan-Poo
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Zepar and Furfur said that 19 was an important number but it's Shannon and kanon that explain why

the fabled "19th person"
19 is the age of the true lord of Beatrice's world.
19 are the years needed to create this story


not too many things if you ask me, I think there's more stuff that is "6" or "9".
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Old 2010-08-04, 11:21   Link #15239
Marion
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6 years.

6 years Battler has been gone.
6 years ago a sin was committed.
6 is the age Shannon began working at the mansion.

I can't think of anything other than that off the top of my head really.
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Old 2010-08-04, 11:22   Link #15240
sacul097
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Well what about Jessica? She's the same age as battler but I don't think her birthday was ever stated. She could be turning nineteen.
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