News Stories

[SeijiSensei]

Japanese police raid amazon.co.jp

Amazon Japan is suspected of helping sales of child pornography such as photo books of nude girls under 18 by leaving them on its website despite knowing they had been posted there, the sources said.

I admit I've been surprised to see hentai manga at amazon.co.jp. Since I don't feel any need to protect drawn characters, that doesn't really bother me. Real children, on the other hand, are another issue entirely.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Solace

It's pseudo science. Economics is defined by human politics, there's nothing economical or efficient about it. Sure, there's lots of neat bits of numbers and theories, but none of it actually matters in the broadest sense. Just look at the debate over Greece, even among the posts above. There's no discussion on the science of the reasoning behind what Greece is doing. It's all based on emotion. Numbers be damned, it's all about whose fault is whose and who will be inconvenienced by this choice or that choice.

You can apply some science to it, but in itself the current system of economics has very little to do with being an actual science. It's basically Intelligent Design, except replace religion with money and god with the invisible hand. The followers are people who make decisions less on what they know, and more on what they believe.

Well, if you've got an actual science as an alternative, I'm all ears.

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Technically it is both, one side favours the borrower and the other side favours the lender. However, the reason interest rate is so low NOW, is because it is a borrower's market.

It's a safe borrower's market, which Greece won't even try to pretend to be.

[Nicaea]

Call me a layman if you want, but wouldn't it be better to pressure Greece into stopping their load of bull policies? As far as I see it, Brussels has been rather nice to them and could have donenworse things. They're being ignored already so why not?

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Japanese police raid amazon.co.jp

I admit I've been surprised to see hentai manga at amazon.co.jp. Since I don't feel any need to protect drawn characters, that doesn't really bother me. Real children, on the other hand, are another issue entirely.

Photobooks of nude girls under 18?

Seriously speaking though, most Japanese girls have the ability to look below 18. Heck even the guys are able to look like below-18 girls!

Wait a minute......

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Nicaea

Call me a layman if you want, but wouldn't it be better to pressure Greece into stopping their load of bull policies? As far as I see it, Brussels has been rather nice to them and could have donenworse things. They're being ignored already so why not?

Pressure them with WHAT?
Greece is officially economically worse than the United States during the Great Depression. Just about the only thing they can punish Greece with is military invasion. The fact is the EU still isn't ready to cause a Greece Exit, and that's why they kept half assing threats.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Pressure them with WHAT?
Greece is officially economically worse than the United States during the Great Depression. Just about the only thing they can punish Greece with is military invasion. The fact is the EU still isn't ready to cause a Greece Exit, and that's why they kept half assing threats.

They buy alot of military equipment from Germany on credit. Recall them and let them deal with Turkey with peashooter in Cyprus.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

They buy alot of military equipment from Germany on credit. Recall them and let them deal with Turkey with peashooter in Cyprus.

The new PM of Greece just declared that he has no plan to Default. So basically, he is not going to leave the EU voluntarily. Instead, as I expected, he is going to push the EU to the breaking point as much as he can, milking concessions, until the EU itself decide to kick Greece out.

You are free to discuss morality, but as far as politics is concerned, the new PM is just doing his job. As I say, this is blackmail, but this isn't unusual or illegal for politicians.

[SaintessHeart]

Speaking of which, looks like the prophecy fulfilled itself.

Nobel Prize Winnig Economist Says Now It Is Time To Buy Greek Stocks

Solace, you see this?

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

The new PM of Greece just declared that he has no plan to Default. So basically, he is not going to leave the EU voluntarily. Instead, as I expected, he is going to push the EU to the breaking point as much as he can, milking concessions, until the EU itself decide to kick Greece out.

Tsipras has been doing lots of talking already, it doesn't mean that it really matters though. By the end of February, unless the Troika confirms that Greece have fulfilled their obligations and prolongs the help, Greece will run out of money. They will then default, no matter whether or not they "plan" to do it. Unless of course they find someone else to lend them money, of course. Which would be fine with me.

And that Greece have not complied is crystal clear. Today Tsipras undid several of the few measures that were agreed in the bailout plan. Tsipras is going on full confrontation course.

You are free to discuss morality, but as far as politics is concerned, the new PM is just doing his job. As I say, this is blackmail, but this isn't unusual or illegal for politicians.

*shrug*

It's brinkmanship of the purest kind. There are first reports of Syriza voters having buyer's remorse, since he

1) forged a coalition with a party of right-wing xenophobes with good connections to the Greek "ruling class"
2) is openly courting Russia as alternative creditor to the EU

Let's talk again in half a year when his grand schemes and dreams have collided with reality.

[Solace]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Well, if you've got an actual science as an alternative, I'm all ears.

Honestly answering this is like a non-believer walking into a church and telling them everything they believe is wrong. No one wants to hear it, but they'll usually let you criticize it as long as they can dismiss you as a nut.

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Speaking of which, looks like the prophecy fulfilled itself.

Nobel Prize Winnig Economist Says Now It Is Time To Buy Greek Stocks

Solace, you see this?

Haha....wow. Textbook example of what we were just talking about.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by SaintessHeart

Nobel Prize Winnig Economist Says Now It Is Time To Buy Greek Stocks

I happened to look at data on unit labor costs in Europe after reading a piece in Krugman's blog. In real terms, Greek labor costs in 2013 stood at just 87% of the 2005 index basis. While some of the other weak economies like Portugal also show declines compared to 2005, they haven't fallen as far as Greece. If you were looking to build a plant somewhere in Europe, maybe Greece would have some appeal.

[Mentar]

Yea, but that was before Tsipras' announcement to roll back the reforms, and coupled them with the implicit threat of defaulting on their public debt.

But hey - whoever feels like investing in this political climate, more power to you. It will make buying Greek long-term bonds look like total bluechip investments!

[Bri]

Originally Posted by Solace

It's pseudo science. Economics is defined by human politics, there's nothing economical or efficient about it. Sure, there's lots of neat bits of numbers and theories, but none of it actually matters in the broadest sense. Just look at the debate over Greece, even among the posts above. There's no discussion on the science of the reasoning behind what Greece is doing. It's all based on emotion. Numbers be damned, it's all about whose fault is whose and who will be inconvenienced by this choice or that choice.

You can apply some science to it, but in itself the current system of economics has very little to do with being an actual science. It's basically Intelligent Design, except replace religion with money and god with the invisible hand. The followers are people who make decisions less on what they know, and more on what they believe.

It's extremely arrogant to claim that you know better than everyone in a particular field of science. The scientific method is applied to economic research which on it's own is enough to set it apart from religious constructs. However in some areas like macro economy accurate data is scare and real world events do not provide experimental conditions for testing. That's why there are usually multiple hypotheses an ongoing debate on any given topic. On the level of individual decision making there has been huge progress thanks to fields like game theory and experimental economics.

It's a bit comparable to airplane crash investigations and climate studies. The principal mechanisms are often well understood but the lack of data and the number of variables make interpretation of any particular event and forecasting difficult.

Policy making and advise is a whole different ballgame and has often little to do with the field of study as political interests and other fields like law interact. Some of the more visible economists do make the faux pas of claiming certainty, even outside of their field of expertise, this is aggravated by the desire of politicians and management for the "one handed economist".

That said, there is also a certain blindness (or should I say laziness) by the general public when it comes to check facts. The invisible hand is a nice example. It refers to a mechanism which only works under a very specific set of conditions, like in physics an apple and a feather will accelerate at the same speed in a field of gravity when there is vacuum. Remove the vacuum and it wont work, most people understand the physics example with ease, yet voters en mass believe that free markets work under any condition.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by Solace

Honestly answering this is like a non-believer walking into a church and telling them everything they believe is wrong. No one wants to hear it, but they'll usually let you criticize it as long as they can dismiss you as a nut.



Haha....wow. Textbook example of what we were just talking about.

It is a pretty retarded move to do so. Their government will simply use the revenue earned from investment tax to pay off the Eurodebt rather than killing frictional unemployment, given how harebrained the civil service have performed.

Greece looks pretty delicious, but I wouldn't want to put my money there until the goverment gets their act together.

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

I happened to look at data on unit labor costs in Europe after reading a piece in Krugman's blog. In real terms, Greek labor costs in 2013 stood at just 87% of the 2005 index basis. While some of the other weak economies like Portugal also show declines compared to 2005, they haven't fallen as far as Greece. If you were looking to build a plant somewhere in Europe, maybe Greece would have some appeal.

I was looking at the Greek PMI over the past 5 years, and using 50 as a benchmark, the manufacturing output does not seem to be as great, or at least until 2014 where there is a manufacturing expansion.

Manufacturing is highly based on demand, and probably the largest sector of employment in any economy. Not only just that, the industrial production for the past 15 years has been declining even as Greece adopted the Euro in 2000. The attitude, if judging by data, is that the Greek government or people simply has little or no intention of growing their economy through manufacturing, despite the GDP expansion between '06 to '10.

Top heavy economies like these are risky as service is easier to provide than actual blue-collar, due to the illiquidity (and in certain places, the legal roadblocks) of capital investment forcing businesses to stay put and not move overseas. It is a basic building block of any economy.

And currently the low minimum wage is putting a chokehold on domestic demand, which means that there isn't much of an incentive or market to set up a business there.

It is up to the Greek government right now to decide what it wants to make as a mainstay export; I'd say plastic/rubber powder for 3D printers for the Eurozone area is a good way to start.

* - The above analysis is subjected to limitations caused by McNamara's Fallacy and 20/20. Please do not shoot me.

[Xellos-_^]

Originally Posted by Mentar

*shrug*

It's brinkmanship of the purest kind. There are first reports of Syriza voters having buyer's remorse, since he

1) forged a coalition with a party of right-wing xenophobes with good connections to the Greek "ruling class"
2) is openly courting Russia as alternative creditor to the EU

Let's talk again in half a year when his grand schemes and dreams have collided with reality.

Russia? really? If oil price don't bounce back to $100 in the next 2 years they won't even be able to paid their own bills. That is who Greece is looking to bail them out if the EU won't?

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

Russia? really? If oil price don't bounce back to $100 in the next 2 years they won't even be able to paid their own bills. That is who Greece is looking to bail them out if the EU won't?

Hontou ni. You can't make this up. First international meeting of Tsipras after being sworn into office was with the Russian ambassador. Next to stopping privatizations of power companies and entering negotiations with Russia, Tsipras also talked about vetoing EU sanctions against Russia in response to the Mariupol shelling.

Markets in Greece are tanking. The Bank of Greece has lost 50% of its value, the rest of the banks over 30%. Greek bond yields has jumped to over 10%.

This is pretty amazing stuff, I'm awed. What Tsipras is achieving with his policy of pissing in each European leaders' faces as quickly and massively as possible is that the other EU states will have less and less wiggle room to let him save face when they will reject Tsipras' demanded haircut. Because by then the blackmail attempt has been so blatant that they CANNOT go along with it even if they wanted, without being voted out of office at home.

I seriously wonder how many Syriza voters will wake up in 1-2 months and wonder if this is really what they voted for.

[Solace]

Originally Posted by Bri

It's extremely arrogant to claim that you know better than everyone in a particular field of science. The scientific method is applied to economic research which on it's own is enough to set it apart from religious constructs. However in some areas like macro economy accurate data is scare and real world events do not provide experimental conditions for testing. That's why there are usually multiple hypotheses an ongoing debate on any given topic. On the level of individual decision making there has been huge progress thanks to fields like game theory and experimental economics.

It's a bit comparable to airplane crash investigations and climate studies. The principal mechanisms are often well understood but the lack of data and the number of variables make interpretation of any particular event and forecasting difficult.

Policy making and advise is a whole different ballgame and has often little to do with the field of study as political interests and other fields like law interact. Some of the more visible economists do make the faux pas of claiming certainty, even outside of their field of expertise, this is aggravated by the desire of politicians and management for the "one handed economist".

That said, there is also a certain blindness (or should I say laziness) by the general public when it comes to check facts. The invisible hand is a nice example. It refers to a mechanism which only works under a very specific set of conditions, like in physics an apple and a feather will accelerate at the same speed in a field of gravity when there is vacuum. Remove the vacuum and it wont work, most people understand the physics example with ease, yet voters en mass believe that free markets work under any condition.

I get what you're saying, but I'm not speaking from arrogance. I don't claim to know better than everyone else, and that's my point. Just look at the article Saintess linked. Is that nobel winning economist really giving an educated opinion? It's laughable to suggest that investing anything into Greece right now is smart for anyone. Only bad gamblers would think it's worth the risk. There's just not enough data....unless you're holding some cards the general public doesn't know about.

This is the difference between the science of economics, where you study data and plot logical theories based on hypothesis, and the pseudo science of economics, where people spout off opinions as if they know what the hell they're talking about because they have street cred.

Sure, he's a nobel prize winning guy, so he deserves some mention in the headlines, right? But that also means he should be held under even more scrutiny than someone like me. Instead, people are buying into the bull him and others like him preach because his credentials "make him smart".

This is what I meant by economics being defined by politics. All of the actual scientific work means nothing when the platform is given to people who can be so influential by saying so little. It doesn't help the average person understand economics at all, and it does more harm than good because it's just so easy to manipulate those sound bites to support anything you want.

I'm not trying to hate on the guy, and I'm sure he's got plenty of charts to show his associates and think tank friends, but it's not difficult to understand that anyone talking about investing in a nation with an increasingly unstable future either has an agenda or is full of shit. If his advice is that good, then everyone should be racing to dump money into Greece, or he's telling certain people to invest for the quick buck and pull out before they get burned.

There's no long term investments to be made in Greece if you're looking to generate short term profits. Not unless you're good at manipulating the outcome in your favor.

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by Solace

Honestly answering this is like a non-believer walking into a church and telling them everything they believe is wrong. No one wants to hear it, but they'll usually let you criticize it as long as they can dismiss you as a nut.

I'm not denying that economy's a pseudo-science. The medical equivalent of putting leeches on everything. But in the absence of a better alternative, "it seems to work that way, maybe" will have to do. Put those leeches on.

Originally Posted by Mentar

I seriously wonder how many Syriza voters will wake up in 1-2 months and wonder if this is really what they voted for.

Well, isn't he doing what he promised so far, including pissing in our leaders' faces?


Speaking of investing in Greece - does someone know how one goes about investing in organized crime? Because if it really all breaks down...

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Solace

Just look at the article Saintess linked. Is that nobel winning economist really giving an educated opinion? It's laughable to suggest that investing anything into Greece right now is smart for anyone. Only bad gamblers would think it's worth the risk. There's just not enough data....unless you're holding some cards the general public doesn't know about.

That's your opinion, but I suspect investors might take the opinion of someone who has worked on the problem of asset pricing for over thirty years.

His advice isn't directed at you, an ordinary investor, but at professionals trying to decide where to invest in equity markets. Perhaps his models indicate Greek assets are undervalued right now, which isn't all that implausible to me. I don't have the capital or the risk-acceptance to act on that notion, but others can.

I tire of hearing broadbrush rejections of economics based on ideological debates about macro policies. Microeconomics is based on an impressive mathematical structure that can predict behavior in many market situations. Macroeconomics, the kind of thing that dominates discussion in the public media, is much more contentious and has a weaker theoretical basis. Humans have formed and used markets for millennia. We have only tried managing complex mixed economies with fiscal, monetary, and regulatory policies since the War using theories that largely date back only to Keynes.

[Mentar]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Well, isn't he doing what he promised so far, including pissing in our leaders' faces?

His choice of coalition partner (right-wing xenophobes with good links to former elites) was pretty much the opposite of what Syriza campaigned for. It will also stifle any real effort to break the "former elites" corruption, since their leader is a former elite himself. I also dare to question whether Tsipras' move to spite the EU and snuggle up to Russia is what his voters wanted (because they are panicked NOT to be cut off from the EU troughs).

I have 2 Greek friends that I regularly discuss with. One of them was a Syriza sympathizer, and he told me that he feels very queasy, also based on what he heard from his relatives who are still in Greece. The other one emigrated to Germany to run an (excellent) restaurant, and he always lamented that he offered a dozen of his jobless relatives in Greece a decent job over here, and he was regularly denied. "Disability rent" and well-operating "black jobs" provided almost as much. He said that he is heartbroken, because he is sure that Syriza voters will flip out when they realize that they're suckered AGAIN, which he is sure will happen.