[Game] Umineko - Spoilers, Theories, Interpretations

[GuestSpeaker]

And just so I can triple post, some other points to consider:

1. Thinking of how much effort we put into solving the games, even if Ep 4 Ange's adventures are bogus, that does not mean we shouldn't put some effort into solving her scenario. If it IS a fiction then it is even more likely we can pinpoint a sensible culprit, WITH all the internal logic that would require.

2. Referring to the heart of Beato's games (at least 1 and 2 and possibly 3 and 4) as all the truths we learn about Yasu and her motivations, it sort of makes it less likely that her stories were written post event to cover culprit X. The only way this would work is if culprit X ties into her heart, otherwise we didn't even come close to any gut tearing.

3. Just because the truth in the book of single truths causes Angie to commit suicide (or likely, the translation of the interview gets a little hazy around this section), it doesn't mean it is necessarily a culprit statement. Couldn't Angie reading that "you/no-one will ever know the truth" or something like that also have a similar effect? The only problem here is it has to be a truth that Eva would keep from her, but that could be as simple as "Battler's actions (sin) lead to the death of everyone". It is even possible it contained confirmation that everyone bar Eva had died, taking away the hope that keeps Angie living.

That last one is a little dubious, but interesting to think about.

[Wanderer]

RK07's interview comments should always be kept in context. In that particular interview Keiya guided a lot of the discussion, so I think RK07 was in part answering to Keiya's particular line of reasoning. Unfortunately, I think people tend to give Keiya too much credit and don't pay enough attention to exactly how RK07 responds to Keiya.

For example:

K Love is really a sufficient motive even for murder, isn’t it?!

R And I think people who do not know that, will sadly never understand Umineko. Because Umineko is „the story of a single girl who arrived at that point because she imagined an incident because of the love and madness in herself“

Keiya is the one really pushing the murder thing here, but RK07's response, although not a refutation of Keiya's assertion, is still a cryptic "imagined an incident".

And again:

K No matter how you look at it, it seems like she was already accepting death. Both the letters before the incident and the message bottles seemed very much like a will.

R While there was enough desperation to actually carry out the incident, there was also the wish for somebody to stop her. Many criminals sending out announcements of their crimes might actually be screaming „Somebody, please stop me!“. Even though of course they can not be forgiven.

Keiya says Yasu was accepting death and was writing a will. RK07 neither confirms nor denies. Also, RK07 says "carry out the incident", instead of simply "commit murder". RK07 then talks about criminals sending out announcements, but it is not a very direct affirmation of Keiya's theory and, if it is an affirmation, it's not clear whether it affirms the call for help being "the letters before the incident", "the message bottles", or both.

So, to put it simply, I think it's best to be very careful about drawing conclusions from these interviews and to keep in mind the circumstances in which RK07 says what he says. I think he doesn't like to narrow the spectrum of interpretation of Umineko too much, so he often avoids refuting ideas even if they are somewhat off the mark.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Also, this may be a soft logic point, but regarding Ange's Ep 4 adventures, I suppose at some point we have to draw the line at what we can trust or we can't reason anything.

Ange has like... 3 or 4 different fates. They simply can't all be real unless Kakera Theory, but that's basically only a workable solution within the Fantasy context.

We've had considerable discussion on this forum as to what EP4 1998 Ange really is. Ultimately I think that EP4 Ange is fictional; she is Touya imagining (possibly with Ikuko's help) what things are like for the real Ange. The question is whether the elements such as Maria's diary, the multiple Sakutarous, and the mysteriously delivered bank cards were things Touya knew about and exposed in the story, or whether he just made them up.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

This means that Ryu's comments about Yasu being ready to do it but wanting to be stopped likely referred to any world where she sent the money out beforehand, in this case R-prime.

I just mentioned how the above "wanting to be stopped" comment should be looked at in context. But to go further, I will contend that sending out money beforehand works with the murder game theory (as a reward for cooperation in an innocent murder game). I don't accept Yasu as being so twisted as to think that money would be any kind of compensation for murder. And even supposing she did think that way, why send a letter to Ange? Assuming Eva died too (as this cruel version of Yasu almost certainly would intend) Ange would inherit everything, so sending her a compensation bank card would have little meaning even in terms of money.

[GreyZone]

It all comes down to whether it's R-Prime or not.
But the money issue can be resolved by the "murder mystery game" too. Do you think everyone was just simply agreeing to do that "RPG" for Battler, for free?

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

I don't remember to what length I discussed this before, but what do people think of Will=Touya? I think it fits pretty well thematically with Will being intimately knowledgeable of the fictions and the Ushiromiyas without being too interested in them, and the sense that he was trapped with them and forced to solve the mystery (by Bernkastel no less, who I think could just as easily be called "the goddess of unlikely fortune" as "the witch of miracles"). Also, with Ikuko=Yasu, it could explain where Touya gets his theater-going authority.

It's something I consider as Battler and Will share some common elements and it would draw a nice parallelism both with Battler and Toya.
Of course it can be said that Will is merely an existence similar to Dlanor, a personification of the 20 wedges however Will seems to differ from Dlanor so I like to think at him as to an alterego of Battler/Toya.
It might be just me though.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

- Yasu was willing to kill everybody

Yasu might have been willing... the general argument against this is: would she ever be capable? Not just capable to make it work (and this in itself is already a hard task) but also capable to... simply do it.

Because it's really easy to say 'I hate that person so I'll kill him' and, although less easy, a plan can be made to accomplish this but, once you found yourself about to end a life... well, unless you've a really low moral sense it's not so easy.

Also in the interview there's no clear distinction between PieceShannon/Yasu and Prime Shannon/Yasu.

We know Yasu was the culprit in the gameboard and Ryukishi confirmed this. What is not so clear is if she was also the culprit for Rokkenjima Prime.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

- Beatrice was a (self?) scapegoat to protect Ange

Yasu had no reason to protect Ange. If Yasu survived (it's still up to debate if she became Ikuko) and wrote about the witch it was to 'find someone who would solve her mystery/understand her'.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

- Ange needed to be protected from some aspect of the truth of the incident

Yes, and this imply Yasu wasn't the culprit otherwise Ange wouldn't have needed to be protected by the idea that a mad maid killed her family.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

It may be possible that Yasu did not kill in prime, however the interview comment about her willingness was in response to the comments about the message bottles and the letters, which were stated as being sent beforehand.

Even acknowledging that it is often debated whether or not the bottles were sent beforehand, and assuming Ryu just decided to ignore this assumption (I somehow picture him making some cryptic comment about being so sure of timelines, or "maybe the actions seem so suspicious because they are" or something), it is pretty certain the letters were sent before the incident and catbox.

This means that Ryu's comments about Yasu being ready to do it but wanting to be stopped likely referred to any world where she sent the money out beforehand, in this case R-prime.

Again you clash into the problem: was he speaking about the gameboard or Prime?

But let's assume he was speaking about Prime.

As something 'mysterious' would have happened even if Battler weren't to come back it's also possible that Yasu planned to leave/disappear/commit suicide.

This would be more fitting with her personality while at the same time might involve a wish to be stopped.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Furthermore, looking at this segment:

K His image changes wether you base your idea of him on the Kinzô in EP7 or EP8.

R The Kinzô that Ange expected and the Kinzô that Battler wanted her to see are quite different as well.

Sort of heavily implies that Battler was pulling the strings of Ep8's kind Kinzo. I am not sure what spanner this throws into the already complex meta meta logic that is floating around.

The MetaBattler of EP 8 is likely not the real Battler but a Battler that existed in Ange's mind only and that represented her wish to remember her family as a loving family, opposed to the image she had of them painted by the media.

Ep 8 is mostly Ange's inner battle until she finds her own truth in which to believe.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Though I guess sadly the manga supports the fictional theory, as it has Ange taking her skyscraper dive and becoming two people: Ange who goes to the island, and Ange-Beatrice who travels to the Meta-world (though the translation of the explanation of this seems to be wrong when it first occurs). The reason this supports the fictional theory is Ange-Beatrice watches other Ange's adventures through the windows of the tea-room, just the same as she watches the games on the game-board.

The manga follows the game's storyline.

In Prime Ange likely disappeared short after Eva's death and EP 4 proposed 2 possible solutions for this: one is the fantasy one, where she was killed trying to help Battler (which can be a metaphor for how Ange suffered), the other... let's call it the mystery one as she's likely killed during the shooting.

General belief is that both those two solutions are what Toya thought had happened to Ange after he started to recover his memory, refused to meet her and heard she disappeared short after.

Theoretically it's also possible that Ange's adventures in Ep 4 were something that she made up in her mind (her past being the only true thing... even though the 'magic' parts were obviously fantasy).

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

3. Just because the truth in the book of single truths causes Angie to commit suicide (or likely, the translation of the interview gets a little hazy around this section), it doesn't mean it is necessarily a culprit statement. Couldn't Angie reading that "you/no-one will ever know the truth" or something like that also have a similar effect? The only problem here is it has to be a truth that Eva would keep from her, but that could be as simple as "Battler's actions (sin) lead to the death of everyone". It is even possible it contained confirmation that everyone bar Eva had died, taking away the hope that keeps Angie living.

That last one is a little dubious, but interesting to think about.

In Ep 8 there's a scene in which Ange commit suicide after reading the book because 'she wanted to overwrite the truth in it with her own truth'.

So evidently the truth was a little more unpleasant than just 'you don't get to know a thing about it' though the book might have not contained all the truth but just the unpleasant part of it.

Originally Posted by Wanderer

RK07's interview comments should always be kept in context. In that particular interview Keiya guided a lot of the discussion, so I think RK07 was in part answering to Keiya's particular line of reasoning. Unfortunately, I think people tend to give Keiya too much credit and don't pay enough attention to exactly how RK07 responds to Keiya.

I fully agree on this!

[GuestSpeaker]

These are some very good points, though there are some holes that can be mentioned. First thing that came to my mind was that if everyone had died then there wouldn't have been that much for Ange to inherit to begin with, remember Eva had to go about rebuilding the fortune by selling off whatever was not blown to smithereens.

Secondly, I still feel that if Ep4 Ange is a fictional one then it should be possible to construct a working theory for how her world went, because while Ryu does play vague context games (that interview must be heavily edited unless he is just that well prepared/quick on his feet to come up with such carefully worded word games), he did state there was a truth you could arrive at with investigation. Even if this only applies to Ep4 Angie's scenario, I feel there is an answer that should be met with more certainty.

Furthermore, if you state that her "imagining an incident" refers to constructing the stories of the message bottles, then so too must "carrying out the incident". I'll agree that the context is vague, but hopefully it is consistent.

Finally, while the murder game scenario does have a lot of reasonable points (despite going against my confession's direct interpretation (which is fine)) and it IS possible one of the pre-warned adults hijacked it all, it does leave a few points that annoy me.
1. If the game was so innocent, why send the money to the relatives of the players? Especially when one of them was 6 years old. If she decided to do them all this way then how was she going to pay those who had no off-island family, and if she was just going to pay everyone then the adults wouldn't have been so money stricken anyway.
2. Why send them as if they were sent from the relatives when the letters would likely have arrived after they had returned home safely and all answers had been revealed/solved.
3. While money isn't enough to make up for the murder of a family (just ask Lamba about this one), could it not equally be interpreted that if she knew the whole island was going up she knew the wealth needed dispersal as payment before the game began?
4. Would Yasu pay them off twice? In her forgeries it was sort of implied that she did a big reveal of her plans while on the island, unless this is a load of croc she probably would have had to do the paying while there. Also what did she plan to do with all the gold? If she was going to divide it, why send out payment beforehand when NONE OF THE PEOPLE PRESENT could really confirm it had been sent except by her word?
5. Would everyone go in with that idea anyway? I believe one of the episodes addressed everyone agreeing to sell off the family name for money, and this is asking everyone to scare their family half to death. Unless it was meant to be played as a pure game, in which case it should have become evident after TW1 that it was NOT. (It interested me that they always referred to the red gory parts on people as makeup in the games, but come on, it is pretty hard to 'make up' holes in people's faces. I'd like to think even gameboard accomplices must have picked up on this and stayed silent for other reasons, which become more difficult if everyone is equally involved in the scheme).

I realise this is all possibly only relevant to Ep4 Ange, but I still want to know her story....

And some further questions:
1. Did anyone else ever wonder exactly when Kumisawa solved the epitaph? It seems likely she did from her possessions, and why would Ryu bother showing this to us?
2. Did anyone else notice that if you use the phrase "I wouldn't put it past Ryu" from the logic of Umineko you are basically stating that you are believing in a reason or circumstance that is simply untrue?

Phew that was a lot of typing, I should get a job writing meta-dialogue for the seven stakes.

[GuestSpeaker]

Just as nitpicking, I am pretty sure telling Ange she wouldn't know a thing about it was Eva's last shot to her, which if we take her metaphorical journey to search for the truth as being what keeps her from stepping off the ledge, is probably not as weak an insult as you think.


Also you make a good point about her resolve, though I did mention the whole willing and able to carry out context, here is some food for thought:

Do you think it would be equally within her character to set up a scenario where others might kill? It is a bit like having the bomb set and waiting for someone to turn it off (which flipping the switch is arguably a passive way to kill everybody, especially as she leaves it to fate whether or not it is switched back). We know she likes leaving things to fate, so I wonder if she could have merely placed all the pieces to the murders in everyone's hands, and then sat back and let fate decide what went on?

Also, this could be completely wrong, but I always assumed the incident that would have happened had he not come back would have been the death of either Shannon or (more likely, come on) Kannon. More importantly, not only would it be a little harsh of Ryu have likened her to a culprit forewarning of his crimes if she really wanted to be stopped from leaving or disappearing, but if we take that idea to be true, when she was understood by her messages, those things still would have happened. Though she would have accepted anyone, she WANTED Battler to solve it, which would have killed off Kannon at least anyway. So we know it had to be something that would have been stopped had it been solved, which could be her suicide, except that would not have been very mysterious.

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

These are some very good points, though there are some holes that can be mentioned. First thing that came to my mind was that if everyone had died then there wouldn't have been that much for Ange to inherit to begin with, remember Eva had to go about rebuilding the fortune by selling off whatever was not blown to smithereens.

First thing that came to my mind is that Ange never used the money she 'received' because she was too young to figure out what the letter meant.
Ergo someone older was supposed to receive the letter.
Also the letter was addressed to Rudolf and not to Ange.

Plus Yasuda couldn't know Ange would have fallen sick.
If Ange too had been there and died there would have been no point in sending her the letter as no one would be there to receive it.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Secondly, I still feel that if Ep4 Ange is a fictional one then it should be possible to construct a working theory for how her world went, because while Ryu does play vague context games (that interview must be heavily edited unless he is just that well prepared/quick on his feet to come up with such carefully worded word games), he did state there was a truth you could arrive at with investigation. Even if this only applies to Ep4 Angie's scenario, I feel there is an answer that should be met with more certainty.

I'm not sure which theory you want to build here.
If you're talking about which end she met it's pretty clear that on Rokkenjima she ended up being shoot, possibly/likely by Amakusa as heavily implied by EP 7/8.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Furthermore, if you state that her "imagining an incident" refers to constructing the stories of the message bottles, then so too must "carrying out the incident". I'll agree that the context is vague, but hopefully it is consistent.

the carry out part refers to the bit in which Shannon is accepting death so it might refer merely to a suicidal will not to an omicidal one... at least from Ryukishi's part. Keiya might have thought at both.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Finally, while the murder game scenario does have a lot of reasonable points (despite going against my confession's direct interpretation (which is fine)) and it IS possible one of the pre-warned adults hijacked it all, it does leave a few points that annoy me.

It doesn't really clash with Our confession as our Confession is merely another game.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

1. If the game was so innocent, why send the money to the relatives of the players? Especially when one of them was 6 years old. If she decided to do them all this way then how was she going to pay those who had no off-island family, and if she was just going to pay everyone then the adults wouldn't have been so money stricken anyway.

The money wasn't sent to the relatives of the victims but to the victims. Ange's envelope was in fact addressed to Rudolf. As the victims were... well dead the relatives opened the envelopes.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

2. Why send them as if they were sent from the relatives when the letters would likely have arrived after they had returned home safely and all answers had been revealed/solved.

You got it wrong, they weren't set to look as if they were sent by the relatives, it was Ange (and I think Kumasawa's soon too) that mistakenly though so as she received that letter.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

3. While money isn't enough to make up for the murder of a family (just ask Lamba about this one), could it not equally be interpreted that if she knew the whole island was going up she knew the wealth needed dispersal as payment before the game began?

If actually she didn't plan to kill everyone but merely to die/fake her suicide she needed to hand out the money before 'vanishing' otherwise it would have been easy to guess she was still alive.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

4. Would Yasu pay them off twice? In her forgeries it was sort of implied that she did a big reveal of her plans while on the island, unless this is a load of croc she probably would have had to do the paying while there. Also what did she plan to do with all the gold? If she was going to divide it, why send out payment beforehand when NONE OF THE PEOPLE PRESENT could really confirm it had been sent except by her word?

It's unlikely she paid them twice. In Our Confession the payment that they would receive is just the one in the envelope... and the gold will blow up.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

5. Would everyone go in with that idea anyway? I believe one of the episodes addressed everyone agreeing to sell off the family name for money, and this is asking everyone to scare their family half to death. Unless it was meant to be played as a pure game, in which case it should have become evident after TW1 that it was NOT. (It interested me that they always referred to the red gory parts on people as makeup in the games, but come on, it is pretty hard to 'make up' holes in people's faces. I'd like to think even gameboard accomplices must have picked up on this and stayed silent for other reasons, which become more difficult if everyone is equally involved in the scheme).

If it's a game/believed to be a game people might accept to play... if it's the real thing I doubt it unless seriously threatened. And even if that was the case many Ushiromiya might think to attack her as they're strong enough to deal with a girl.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

And some further questions:
1. Did anyone else ever wonder exactly when Kumisawa solved the epitaph? It seems likely she did from her possessions, and why would Ryu bother showing this to us?

Either she merely found hints to solve it or once Yasu solved it she was told the solution.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

2. Did anyone else notice that if you use the phrase "I wouldn't put it past Ryu" from the logic of Umineko you are basically stating that you are believing in a reason or circumstance that is simply untrue?

More than untrue it's hard to prove or it's believed to be unrealistic or with low chances to be true. ShKannon though was pretty unrealistic but it was one of the intended solutions.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Just as nitpicking, I am pretty sure telling Ange she wouldn't know a thing about it was Eva's last shot to her, which if we take her metaphorical journey to search for the truth as being what keeps her from stepping off the ledge, is probably not as weak an insult as you think.

I don't think it's a weak insult but as you said it's what kept her from jumping. If she were to do it in the diary too Ange would still not be jumping.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Also you make a good point about her resolve, though I did mention the whole willing and able to carry out context, here is some food for thought:

Do you think it would be equally within her character to set up a scenario where others might kill? It is a bit like having the bomb set and waiting for someone to turn it off (which flipping the switch is arguably a passive way to kill everybody, especially as she leaves it to fate whether or not it is switched back). We know she likes leaving things to fate, so I wonder if she could have merely placed all the pieces to the murders in everyone's hands, and then sat back and let fate decide what went on?

The idea behind the mystery game is that she set up a game where no one was supposed to kill for real but it somehow backfired, people went paranoid and killed others.

Saying she purposely set up a scenario where other would kill to me is like saying she killed by proxy. It's easier than doing it personally but much more risky and harder to control.
We don't even know if she was the one who flipped the switch or someone else did so and, as long as you plan to switch off the switch there's no murdering intention (though it'll be hard to prove it in front of a jury).

In short the problem many have is that yes, Yasu might have planned a mass murder and then done it but it just wouldn't fit with her character or with what Umineko implied.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Also, this could be completely wrong, but I always assumed the incident that would have happened had he not come back would have been the death of either Shannon or (more likely, come on) Kannon.

Shannon can't marry George unless she works up the gut to tell him she can't have babies (and probably also that her breasts are fake). This never happen in Umineko so, since she can't leave with George she 'has to die'. Kanon says he would leave when Shannon were to leave so Kanon would likely 'die' as well.

In short they would both disappear and since they're the only real faces Yasu have, Yasu would disappear.
It is however debatable if Yasu would disappear throuh suicide or throuh faking it.
If she managed to build up the Ikuko's identity she might have considered leaving.

If she planned to die she might have considered dragging George and Jessica with herself as well in a love suicide.

We'll never know unless more material is released...

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

More importantly, not only would it be a little harsh of Ryu have likened her to a culprit forewarning of his crimes if she really wanted to be stopped from leaving or disappearing, but if we take that idea to be true, when she was understood by her messages, those things still would have happened. Though she would have accepted anyone, she WANTED Battler to solve it, which would have killed off Kannon at least anyway. So we know it had to be something that would have been stopped had it been solved, which could be her suicide, except that would not have been very mysterious.

In the games her suicide was set up like a mysterious murder so her suicide/disappearence can be mysterious.

If Battler weren't to return she would likely have no one to whom ask to stop her as her messages in the games were target made for Battler.

Of course here we're assuming that Prime Yasu had in mind to kill everyone and herself... and we don't know if that's true...

[GuestSpeaker]

Crud, this thing just reset after I addressed every point, this is going to take ages to retype.....

[GuestSpeaker]

Originally Posted by jjblue1

I'm not sure which theory you want to build here.

Basically as to who the culprit really was in that whole layer of her world.

the carry out part refers to the bit in which Shannon is accepting death so it might refer merely to a suicidal will not to an omicidal one... at least from Ryukishi's part. Keiya might have thought at both.

However by what has been used as an argument before, if she "imagined" it then she never intended to do it anyway and did not need stopping.

The money wasn't sent to the relatives of the victims but to the victims. Ange's envelope was in fact addressed to Rudolf. As the victims were... well dead the relatives opened the envelopes.

Sorry about that, I clearly need to reread that section.

You got it wrong, they weren't set to look as if they were sent by the relatives, it was Ange (and I think Kumasawa's soon too) that mistakenly though so as she received that letter.

What I meant to say in point 2 is that sending out the money that way makes no sense. If she wasn't going to kill them, why not give it to them directly? Why send it in a way where she couldn't then easily prove to the siblings that they had already been paid. And if she didn't know Ange wasn't coming but wanted her to play a part, why didn't she get paid anyway?

If actually she didn't plan to kill everyone but merely to die/fake her suicide she needed to hand out the money before 'vanishing' otherwise it would have been easy to guess she was still alive.

I'm sorry, I don't quite understand why she would need to hand it out or people would have known she was disappearing? Also, she really didn't. She handed out a small portion of it and left most of it sitting on the floor of the Witch's room. She could easily have left it all there, but she felt the need to pay out some of it.

It's unlikely she paid them twice. In Our Confession the payment that they would receive is just the one in the envelope... and the gold will blow up.

It was my understanding that in my confession she just used the murder mystery to help her set up the first twilight. It is the hardest because it involves 6 corpses, everyone is still walking around freely, not in any state of suspicion or paranoia and has nothing to lose because they are not already complicit in a crime. How could she convince them to join in with money in envelopes she had already sent but could not prove she had? Even if you say she just paid off accomplices beforehand, Rudolf could not have known his money was enroute before killing everyone (by popular theory)

If it's a game/believed to be a game people might accept to play... if it's the real thing I doubt it unless seriously threatened. And even if that was the case many Ushiromiya might think to attack her as they're strong enough to deal with a girl.

I just meant the whole game premise probably would have collapsed after the first twilight, which should have derailed the scheme of culprit x if everyone knew it was meant to be game.

Either she merely found hints to solve it or once Yasu solved it she was told the solution.

It seems likely she solved it herself, I merely wondered if you guys think Ryu meant this to be any more than a hint to look at the chapel.

More than untrue it's hard to prove or it's believed to be unrealistic or with low chances to be true. ShKannon though was pretty unrealistic but it was one of the intended solutions.

I agree that trick would be tough (well, if not for Jessica that is, who else would probably pay that much attention to servants on a rotating shift anyway? Do you know enough about the cleaners at your workplace to suspect this level of crazy act from them?), but we were given plenty of fair hint.

I don't think it's a weak insult but as you said it's what kept her from jumping. If she were to do it in the diary too Ange would still not be jumping.

1. I am not so sure it didn't in the first place. Maybe having an evil aunt was still better than nothing, cause Ange went on her roof journey pretty immediately after that scene...

2. Assuming the hope of learning something was what was keeping her alive, finding there was no hope of learning anything might just cause her to go over the edge. It seemed like she planned to kill herself at the end of her journey unless she found some reason not to along the way anyway. I could easily speculate her reaction at reading the book was her despair over having to finally give up any hope of learning more about the day, and having that last "what if" crushed. We know despite her cool demeanor, her piece at least still held onto a lot of these little hopes.

The idea behind the mystery game is that she set up a game where no one was supposed to kill for real but it somehow backfired, people went paranoid and killed others.

Would an accident like that make her kill herself either? I feel it has to somehow destroy some idea she has been holding onto to keep her alive.

Furthermore, isn't a risky and hard to control situation exactly what Shannon's character would like? The romance of leaving the outcome to fate, with all the risk being able to be taken by passively waiting around to see the outcome?

Shannon can't marry George unless she works up the gut to tell him she can't have babies

Once again, Ryu stated she was just happy to wait around and have this come out on its own. She even expected it to on their little date. It seems to me Shannon is willing to make just enough effort to create situations where things may occur, then not actively making it happen.

Of course, I can't deny she was just about to throw it all in and kill off all of her personalities, sort of Ep 4 style.

In the games her suicide was set up like a mysterious murder so her suicide/disappearence can be mysterious.

The mystery was because there was no-one who could move her corpse, no-way for her to get off the island or more people to be there/leave then they knew about. Also it created a mystery as to who killed the other people in the scenarios. For her to still create a mystery, she would have had to at least brought suspicion that someone in the family had done away with her. And without a typhoon, she could have just left without anyone noticing, so no mystery.

I know I originally had more points, especially regarding the bit about dividing the fortune, but this is all I can remember for now.....

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Furthermore, if you state that her "imagining an incident" refers to constructing the stories of the message bottles, then so too must "carrying out the incident". I'll agree that the context is vague, but hopefully it is consistent.

"Incident" can just mean the murder game.

One thing I'm sure everyone can agree on is that whatever Yasu did, it was some kind of cry for attention.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Finally, while the murder game scenario does have a lot of reasonable points (despite going against my confession's direct interpretation (which is fine)) and it IS possible one of the pre-warned adults hijacked it all, it does leave a few points that annoy me.
1. If the game was so innocent, why send the money to the relatives of the players? Especially when one of them was 6 years old. If she decided to do them all this way then how was she going to pay those who had no off-island family, and if she was just going to pay everyone then the adults wouldn't have been so money stricken anyway.
2. Why send them as if they were sent from the relatives when the letters would likely have arrived after they had returned home safely and all answers had been revealed/solved.
3. While money isn't enough to make up for the murder of a family (just ask Lamba about this one), could it not equally be interpreted that if she knew the whole island was going up she knew the wealth needed dispersal as payment before the game began?
4. Would Yasu pay them off twice? In her forgeries it was sort of implied that she did a big reveal of her plans while on the island, unless this is a load of croc she probably would have had to do the paying while there. Also what did she plan to do with all the gold? If she was going to divide it, why send out payment beforehand when NONE OF THE PEOPLE PRESENT could really confirm it had been sent except by her word?
5. Would everyone go in with that idea anyway? I believe one of the episodes addressed everyone agreeing to sell off the family name for money, and this is asking everyone to scare their family half to death. Unless it was meant to be played as a pure game, in which case it should have become evident after TW1 that it was NOT. (It interested me that they always referred to the red gory parts on people as makeup in the games, but come on, it is pretty hard to 'make up' holes in people's faces. I'd like to think even gameboard accomplices must have picked up on this and stayed silent for other reasons, which become more difficult if everyone is equally involved in the scheme).

Our Confessions did have a murder game scenario, except that Beatrice actually killed for real instead. Which brings up an important point: I don't think Beatrice always equals Yasu.
1. To elaborate on what has already been brought up, the letter that Ange got with the bank card had a bogus send-to address and the return address of her father. So there's no reason to assume she was the intended recipient unless you believe that the sender knew Rudolf would be dead by the time it got to his house. Also since it's the return address method, the mailing trick could have worked on the Rokkenjima mansion's address just the same as any other address (assuming the mansion's destruction wasn't intended ).
2. I don't know. It could have been an additional award Yasu was giving without any announcement; like, she had already planned to give all the money away but didn't want to give it away before the game or else she wouldn't have all the leverage she might need to gain everyone's participation. She may have used blackmail or threats to get peoples' cooperation, too.
3. Sure. But if she knew the island was going to blow up, she's pretty evil. And if she's that evil, why the good deed of dispersing the money?
4. See answer to 2.
5. I agree that people going along with the murder game is kind of hard to swallow, but I'd like to point out that going along with real murders is even harder to swallow. Let's also keep in mind there could be ulterior motives to participation, like what we see in End where pretty much everyone participates in a fake murder scenario to corner Natsuhi. The first Twilights of Legend and Turn do seem like they couldn't have been faked, but honestly I just have to resort to hand-waving those parts because everything fits so well if they are somehow fake anyway, despite their description.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Did anyone else ever wonder exactly when Kumisawa solved the epitaph? It seems likely she did from her possessions, and why would Ryu bother showing this to us?

I don't remember this about her possessions, but in any case I wouldn't find it strange if she was in on it from the beginning, like Genji.

[Kealym]

Fatigued from reading pages and pages of posts.

Originally Posted by Renall

We don't actually know that money ever went out at all in R-Prime. That all happened to ep4 Ange, whose adventures may have been fictional. It's still possible that it happened, but it would be basically impossible to confirm.

True. I agree with most that EP4 Ange was probably fictional, based to some extent on Tohya feeling like a douche for refusing to see her. However, my reasoning about her misadventures is the same as my argument for trusting in how accurately the humans are presented - basically, that I'm trusting that, in these regards, Ryukishi was trying to give us relatively accurate information. Even the opening statement on Alliance basically says "Okay, and now we'll have some clues from OUTSIDE Rokkenjima, because you might not figure this stuff if we stay on the island". Though I DO wish he'd given a more exciting way for Ange to have Maria's diary besides "I nabbed it when the police weren't looking."

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

In a further and unrelated question, was it in one of the games or on here that I read that as any theories denying the use of the window to escape the sealed room in the wedding episode (EP 6 I guess?) did not create a logic error, there must be another way to do it?

I'm not sure what you're asking?

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Also unrelated but on my mind, in regards to the Bern Murder mystery of Ep 8 (oh how I enjoyed that) was there anyone else who went with George culprit theory first? I did, even though it isn't as neat as the Battler theory, because otherwise you hit a logic error:

It is stated in purple by George that "no one could kill Doctor Nanjo inside the guesthouse!" but also in white true narration that "Nanjo was killed in the entrance hall to the guest house", though this may have been a translation error. My reasoning faltered though when I justified this by stating he killed a person by denying Kanon (or proposing to Shannon).

Well, when you first get to the end of the narration, you are pretty much stuck between Battler and George. Maria is reasoned out after the Second Twilight. No logic error exists here, though. You just have to put George purple that Nanjo couldn't have been killed INSIDE the guesthouse against Battlers purple statement that Nanjo NEVER LEFT the guesthouse. They can't both be true, so you have to figure Battler was lying - Nanjo left the guesthouse, was killed, and for the reason of Bern's game being more a deductive-logic-game than an actual narrative, they plopped his corpse right on back in the entrance hall. I mean, after actually killing Nanjo, there was no reason (from a narrative standpoint) for the culprits to bother with the nonsense about locking doors and having Battler lie.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Also, this could be completely wrong, but I always assumed the incident that would have happened had he not come back would have been the death of either Shannon or (more likely, come on) Kannon.

I think in EP7, it was almost exactly said just as you say here, I'm pretty sure it was something like "There definitely would have been a 'strange incident' on Rokkenjima in October 1986, but without Battler it would have been rather small." The impression I get is that it would've been a "strange thing that happened, once", that the family would occasionally bring up at dinner for years to come. Ha, maybe it was George announcing his engagement on the same day that Kanon flipped his little stripey-socked lid and loudly quit in front of everybody after cursing Natsuhi out or something.

[Drifloon]

The first twilight of Legend doesn't seem that hard to fake. The only real wounds were on the faces, right? It could have been done with 'bloody make-up', heck, they even use the word 'make-up' repeatedly during that section to hint it. I'm sure if someone had tried actually touching the faces it would have become clear that they weren't really damaged.

For Turn, the candies could have been covering the supposed openings in their stomachs, right? Wasn't the only one who actually saw their stomachs sliced open Rosa, who's an accomplice? It would be difficult, but I don't think it's impossible.

Did anyone else ever wonder exactly when Kumisawa solved the epitaph? It seems likely she did from her possessions, and why would Ryu bother showing this to us?

I've never heard of this. Could you elaborate?

[GuestSpeaker]

Amongst the possessions Angie was shown from Kumisawa's son was a picture of the chapel with the writing translated, to which he mentioned she liked solving puzzles and tried the epitaph. If she got that far, she probably knew the answer (I maybe should have spoiler tagged something here....)

And what I was referring to with the windows, was if it was said in game there was a way to escape the room not using the windows I would be very interested to hear theories on it, if it were said on these boards there is less onus for it to be true.

[GuestSpeaker]

And the thing I was trying to say about Bern's puzzle is the white narration (which HAS to be true) said that "Nanjo was killed in the entrance hall to the guest house", which if we follow to the letter means that George's "no one could kill Doctor Nanjo inside the guesthouse!" false by default. Unless this is a translation error in the patch it is a logic error in the game for George NOT to be lying, hence why I chose him over Battler.

[GuestSpeaker]

Also, I would say that the puzzle of why she sent out the money is an important one, because it is one the characters in metaworld dangled in front of us (for me sort of implying it was something Battler was on a personal level trying to figure out, supporting its real occurrence). If it was to pay people for a murder game, she wouldn't be able to prove she had done it, sort of invalidating its purpose. However if she were just mad enough to leave the possibility of the island blowing up to chance, but not quite mean spirited enough not to send out some money, this could fit with her wanting to be stopped (therefore feeling guilt). This would also fit with what Ryu may have been saying regarding her determination.

However despite what I argue in my devil's advocate way, I too feel that there must be some way she isn't wholly responsible for what went on, as I felt Battler at least believed she was acting as a scapegoat (or Ange depending on whose Meta world it was). Either that or Japanese cultural guilt practices make it ok for him to feel like since he drove her to do it, it was his fault in the first place. If he looks at it from the point of the torture he put her through, it is a possible emotion I guess (from what I have glimpsed in a few movies, Japanese culture treats guilt and its ramifications slightly differently, though this is very vaguely skimmed hearsay)

Meanwhile, it seems my (not actually typed in the colour of but in the spirit of) blue truths regarding Ange were effective.

[UsagiTenpura]

Was thinking about theories like George culprit (within the arcs) of Chrono.
That is alternate culprit theories beside Yasu culprit theories. I just don't see how they work. So I'd like to see if anyone has actually a way to deal with this major problem:

What's the point for Yasu/Beatrice to write a story if the culprit in that story is someone else? Especially like, in George's case, she'd picture her bf as the culprit.

It's nice and all to find alternative solutions, none likes those more then I do, but some answers ends up causing too much nonsense when it comes to fit in other solutions. That said, there might be something I don't see, this is why I'm posting this.

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Basically as to who the culprit really was in that whole layer of her world.

If you talk about Ange's death in EP 4 she was likely killed by Amakusa who was requested to kill the Sumadera and Ange by Okonogi.
If you talk about the murders on Rokkenjima in Ep 4 the culprit is always Yasu.
It's the culprit in Prime that sadly is always up to debate.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

However by what has been used as an argument before, if she "imagined" it then she never intended to do it anyway and did not need stopping.

Not necessary as this part refers to something different than the previous.

Now, about imagining things...
Imagining things it's easy and with no consequences and, if you're a planner, you generally will imagine in your mind everything regardless of you doing it or not and Yasu IS a planner so if she imagined something it's also possible it was something she mean to carry on.

Now let's compare the two fantasies:

- killing so many people can be easily imagined but it'll be really hard to carry on both pratically and emotionally. Even if she might have said 'I'm angry with them, I'll kill them all' it becomes hard to believe she had the determination, lack of moral/empathy, the skill and the luck to carry it out. A side of her is fond of those people, they're many, they'll fight back and so on.

- killing/faking to kill herself (therefore causing both Shannon and Kanon to disappear) is technically much easier. As no one suspect it there's no one trying to stop her apart her sense of self preservation that would probably prompt her to search someone who would stop her. The island is big, she has access to weapons, all she has to do is to pull an EP 2 trick if she want to murder herself for real or simulate her murder and escape with the boat if she wants to just escape.

But there's more. Even if we assume Yasu wanted to be stopped in Prime and that's why she orchestrated the games maybe all she wanted Battler to stop was her marriage with George. She might have thought in the end she would have worked enough courage to tell him the truth (or that she would have postponed the issue) but regardless of her telling him the truth or not, as soon as she leaves Rokkenjima Kanon disappear.

The problem with Prime is we don't really have a Prime Yasu among the characters presented. Even EP 7 is the confession of Piece Yasu.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

What I meant to say in point 2 is that sending out the money that way makes no sense. If she wasn't going to kill them, why not give it to them directly? Why send it in a way where she couldn't then easily prove to the siblings that they had already been paid. And if she didn't know Ange wasn't coming but wanted her to play a part, why didn't she get paid anyway?

The money wasn't sent to Kirye either. She likely sent an envelope for each family not for each person. And she handed it afterward because if she had handed it earlier they might not cooperate.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

I'm sorry, I don't quite understand why she would need to hand it out or people would have known she was disappearing? Also, she really didn't. She handed out a small portion of it and left most of it sitting on the floor of the Witch's room. She could easily have left it all there, but she felt the need to pay out some of it.

The money was handed to pay out the adult for their performance in the game. The gold was going to be handed only if they were to solve the epitaph and the gold in itself is pretty useless as it needs to be converted into money and it's not so easy as Kinzo owned the gold in a not legal manner.

Of all the siblings only Krauss said he knew how to convert it in money (and he might have lied) and likely he couldn't convert it all in just a blink.

It's possible Genji too knew how to convert it in money, though it's also possible that the money he handed to Yasu was merely Kinzo's property and didn't come out of the gold.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

It was my understanding that in my confession she just used the murder mystery to help her set up the first twilight. It is the hardest because it involves 6 corpses, everyone is still walking around freely, not in any state of suspicion or paranoia and has nothing to lose because they are not already complicit in a crime. How could she convince them to join in with money in envelopes she had already sent but could not prove she had? Even if you say she just paid off accomplices beforehand, Rudolf could not have known his money was enroute before killing everyone (by popular theory)

Part of Umineko is based on "10 little indians". In it mister U.N.Owen invites '10' people on his island and they go there even if they don't know him.
The adults were disperate. If she sent them messages (instead of meeting them directly) in which she introduced herself as... let's say Beatrice and promised money if they were to do something apparently harmless it's possible the siblings would fall for it or think it was worth a try.
In Ep 3 we have all the adults think that 'Beatrice' knows where the gold is and wants them to do something in exchange for the gold.
Now, Yasu might have not hold her part of the bargain and not sent out the money... but she decided to do so anyway.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

I just meant the whole game premise probably would have collapsed after the first twilight, which should have derailed the scheme of culprit x if everyone knew it was meant to be game.

Yes, that's why the motive for the people cooperating with Yasu also seems weak on the gameboard.
However if in Prime people didn't die for real the accomplices would still play along.
Think at EP 5 or 6 in which people faked their deaths and continued to fake it for a while. Likely in EP 5 Jessica didn't realize she was giving her mother the scare of her life but thought she was merely playing a prank.
The same hapens in EP 4 where likely she made the phone call under the impression that everything had been a prank and she fell for it... only in EP 4 she got killed for real afterward.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

It seems likely she solved it herself, I merely wondered if you guys think Ryu meant this to be any more than a hint to look at the chapel.

Not really otherwise by Kinzo's rules she would be the owner to the gold... unless she solved it in Prime and then tried to kill everyone to keep the gold to herself?... hum somehow the Kumasawa culprit theory doesn't seem so believable.
Also Kumasawa knew many of Kinzo's secrets, including the existence of Beato 2, Yasu and Kuwadorian. Like Genji she might have known how to reach the gold.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

I agree that trick would be tough (well, if not for Jessica that is, who else would probably pay that much attention to servants on a rotating shift anyway? Do you know enough about the cleaners at your workplace to suspect this level of crazy act from them?), but we were given plenty of fair hint.

Natsuhi who's paying them and that suddently found herself hiring someone she didn't hire? Genji who knows all the servants? Not mentioning the servants had working rotating shifts already estabilished and Shannon and Kanon couldn't work at the same time. Or eat together in the kitchen. Plus Kanon becomes, short after being hired apparently, one of Kinzo's trusted servants. And let's mention the servants who came working from the Fukuin house during that time wouldn't have know him even though he too was supposed to come from that same place and travel along with them from the Fukuin institute to Rokkenjima.

No, for Shannon and Kanon to exist Yasu needs accomplices among which surely was Genji, likely Kumasawa and Nanjo and possibly even Natsuhi and Krauss that wanted to make sure that, when the siblings were coming to visit, only trusted servants would be around.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

1. I am not so sure it didn't in the first place. Maybe having an evil aunt was still better than nothing, cause Ange went on her roof journey pretty immediately after that scene...

A theory is that actually Ange found the diary and read it and that's why she went on the roof, leaving the diary behind.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

2. Assuming the hope of learning something was what was keeping her alive, finding there was no hope of learning anything might just cause her to go over the edge. It seemed like she planned to kill herself at the end of her journey unless she found some reason not to along the way anyway. I could easily speculate her reaction at reading the book was her despair over having to finally give up any hope of learning more about the day, and having that last "what if" crushed. We know despite her cool demeanor, her piece at least still held onto a lot of these little hopes.

Ange actually had two hopes:
one was that someone was still alive the other was that Eva, or someone else that weren't her parents, was the culprit.
She doesn't really want the TRUTH but a version of the truth she might like.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Would an accident like that make her kill herself either? I feel it has to somehow destroy some idea she has been holding onto to keep her alive.

No, it's not the mystery game gone wrong that caused her to wish to die/disappear.
She wished/considered to die/disappear then heard of Battler's return and set up the mystery game. The mystery game went wrong and Rokkenjima blew up.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Once again, Ryu stated she was just happy to wait around and have this come out on its own. She even expected it to on their little date. It seems to me Shannon is willing to make just enough effort to create situations where things may occur, then not actively making it happen.

Which sort of clash with the ative role she takes in the mystery game whenre she actually plans murders and goes around turning that plan in reality at least in the games. She's very active and not at all passive in the games.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

The mystery was because there was no-one who could move her corpse, no-way for her to get off the island or more people to be there/leave then they knew about. Also it created a mystery as to who killed the other people in the scenarios. For her to still create a mystery, she would have had to at least brought suspicion that someone in the family had done away with her. And without a typhoon, she could have just left without anyone noticing, so no mystery.

I know I originally had more points, especially regarding the bit about dividing the fortune, but this is all I can remember for now.....

She can leave using the boat in the cave, a boat of which no one knows about so her disappearance would be mysterious. If she set it up properly she could cause people to think it's even more suspicious.
For example if she were to leave around a blood stained knife or a ripped piece of her clothes or if someone where to see in the distance something that could look like someone attacking her and, once he were to reach the scene would find nothing. Actually she could even use Battler's trick in Ep 5 and let others think she fell from a window when she actually reached safely the ground and then escaped.

For a fake murder there are really tons of tricks she could use...

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Amongst the possessions Angie was shown from Kumisawa's son was a picture of the chapel with the writing translated, to which he mentioned she liked solving puzzles and tried the epitaph. If she got that far, she probably knew the answer (I maybe should have spoiler tagged something here....)

And what I was referring to with the windows, was if it was said in game there was a way to escape the room not using the windows I would be very interested to hear theories on it, if it were said on these boards there is less onus for it to be true.

Actually assuming Kumasaw didn't know the gold's location, it's possible Kumasawa merely noticed something odd about the chapel as only Genji was allowed to clean the writing. However she might not have found the solution of the epitaph, just a clue toward the solution.

Originally Posted by UsagiTenpura

Was thinking about theories like George culprit (within the arcs) of Chrono.
That is alternate culprit theories beside Yasu culprit theories. I just don't see how they work. So I'd like to see if anyone has actually a way to deal with this major problem:

What's the point for Yasu/Beatrice to write a story if the culprit in that story is someone else? Especially like, in George's case, she'd picture her bf as the culprit.

It's nice and all to find alternative solutions, none likes those more then I do, but some answers ends up causing too much nonsense when it comes to fit in other solutions. That said, there might be something I don't see, this is why I'm posting this.

I think it was suggested by someone that the games could contain both the intended answer (the culprit is Yasu) and the... let's call it Prime answer (the culprit is George).

Though if the culprit were to be George I think Ange would have accepted that truth because it would remove suspicions from her parents (even though it was probably not as satisfing as the Eva culprit theory for her).
In fact when Erika suggests it she has no complains against it.

[GuestSpeaker]

Not necessary as this part refers to something different than the previous.

I refer specifically to people who state Ryu was saying she imagined (planned) the whole incident, then claiming she was otherwise ready to carry out a separate incident (e.g. her suicide). I am simply saying they can't have it both ways, unless they are saying the two times Ryu uses "incident" he means different things.

killing so many people can be easily imagined but it'll be really hard to carry on both piratically and emotionally

This is only true if you ignore the theory that she may have created a part of herself that was capable of doing this, playing the role of the killer as it were. It would tie in well with Maria's witch personality going sour (therefore sending the Beato personality of Yasu off the edge of evil). We may have to think of Yasu as someone who doesn't believe they can fight off their Beato persona, setting to the default unless someone stops it otherwise. Leaving it to someone else to save them. I can pretty easily imagine Yasu resigning herself to this terrible fate unless someone comes to save her (as I agree, she was crying out for someone to come save her).

But there's more. Even if we assume Yasu wanted to be stopped in Prime and that's why she orchestrated the games maybe all she wanted Battler to stop was her marriage with George

Ah poor Kannon, no-one thinks his love has a chance do they?

And she handed it afterward

But she didn't, she handed it out BEFORE the game but AFTER anyone would know she had done it, this does not seem very useful to anyone.

Of all the siblings only Krauss said he knew how to convert it in money (and he might have lied) and likely he couldn't convert it all in just a blink.

It's possible Genji too knew how to convert it in money, though it's also possible that the money he handed to Yasu was merely Kinzo's property and didn't come out of the gold.

Well it seems someone was able to convert it onto the card, or the very least the money sent in the envelopes. After all, Krauss controlled Kinzo's money (the none-gold money), so Yasu must have got the payment from somewhere.

ow, Yasu might have not hold her part of the bargain and not sent out the money... but she decided to do so anyway.

Hmm, that sounds shaky. I'd have been happier had you said that she always keeps her promises, so sends out the money because she said she would. However, this still wouldn't have been much piece of mind to the adults.

Yes, that's why the motive for the people cooperating with Yasu also seems weak on the gameboard.

Which is why in confessions she has them cooperate just long enough to kill them easily. When looked at like that, it isn't hard to see why she needed to off Hideyoshi and Eva so soon in Ep 1, they had been part to a very risky move right off the bat.

Like Genji she might have known how to reach the gold.

Well then why attempt the epitaph at all? She knew about the secret mansion and B2 long before it existed, so she mustn't have known the answer. Maybe she just solved it after Genji spoonfed Yasu some sweet sweet answer. And in a complete troll moment, wasn't her meta-witch the original Beatrice anyway (I don't really believe that, but it is interesting to think on)?

Natsuhi who's paying them and that suddently found herself hiring someone she didn't hire?

I believe it was stated that he was hired directly by Kinzo (ie through Genji) as were any servants who wore the one-winged eagle. This is why Natsuhi didn't trust him anyway, and why she had a special trust of Ghoda. That explains why he became trusted so quickly. And we know the Nanjo and Kumi likely knew the truth. As for the other servants, there are probably many explanations that could be used, but basically, after three years he would be in the clear (as everyone moves on) and it is stated there aren't usually so many servants on the island anyway (more for the family conference), so he probably could have just worked on days when only select people were around anyway. Or Ryu never thought that part through.

Ange actually had two hopes:

Neither of those hopes deny my theory though, as you could still say that her hope was to find these answers at least.

Would an accident like that make her kill herself either? I feel it has to somehow destroy some idea she has been holding onto to keep her alive.

That referred to Ange killing herself due to the mystery game having caused a massacre, as in the paranoia theory.

She's very active and not at all passive in the games.

I guess that works with her creating this active persona of Beatrice, but this all comes back to how we interpret Ryu's words and Ange's reaction again.

For a fake murder there are really tons of tricks she could use...

Only if she wanted to make the Ushiromiya's suspect someone on the island of murder. Also, if she is as passive as you believe, why would she run away and abandon everything when nothing had changed otherwise? Running away and killing oneself are still actions she would have to take.


And some general thoughts:

1. Wasn't the whole mirror smashing (which happened arguably in all games) meant to represent Shannon giving into Baetrice's taunts about staying passive leading to everything staying the same forever? This could be seen as her finally taking action....
2. There is the possibility she has shown resolve to hurt someone before. It is possible that the servant who disrespected Beatrice before falling down the stairs may have actually been a true story, and after all, we know Genji is good at quietly cleaning up the mess of his master....(we also suspect that Yasu apparently liked to make others believe in Beatrice, and post-mirror smash and post-Maria snapping, who know what she became capable of)
3. People always bring up that we know almost nothing about R-Prime, but Ryu himself stated he gave out enough clues to know what happened with pretty much absolute certainty. If this causes people to complain that the only clues we have pertain to events that happened in the games, then that must be where the clues to what happened on R-Prime lie. After all, Battler does know the truth, he just doesn't remember it all at once.
4. The problem with basing culprit theories solely off Ange's reaction, is that her family being the culprit isn't the only thing she could have read in that book she thought was terrible. A big theme in the games was the children's disgust over how their parents were acting over the money, maybe she read something about how her supposedly sinless parents let their greed take over all other morals, and got themselves and others killed in an otherwise avoidable manner. I have thrown around a few other theories about what she may have read in there, all I am saying is, YES we know she thought it was terrible, but what clues do we have about what the terrible thing actually was otherwise?

The only problem here is a lot of Ryu's clues are more apparent once you know the answer, and the only way to distinguish them from the red herrings before that point is to look for one answer that ties everything together neatly (which he likes) and cross your fingers.

[jjblue1]

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

I refer specifically to people who state Ryu was saying she imagined (planned) the whole incident, then claiming she was otherwise ready to carry out a separate incident (e.g. her suicide). I am simply saying they can't have it both ways, unless they are saying the two times Ryu uses "incident" he means different things.

We go back to square 1 & 2.
The sentences were said in different moments so taken in context the word can have different meanings and we don't know if the sentences referred solely to PieceYasu or also to PrimeYasu or one referred solely to PieceYasu while the other referred to both.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

This is only true if you ignore the theory that she may have created a part of herself that was capable of doing this, playing the role of the killer as it were. It would tie in well with Maria's witch personality going sour.

The problem is that Maria's evil persona never killed anyone and likely represented merely Maria using her immagination to vent her anger.
The dilemma with Yasu is that I think nearly all the fandom believes her capable to picture herself as committing the murders but only few see her as capable of actually carrying on her plan in Prime.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Ah poor Kannon, no-one thinks his love has a chance do they?

Well, even Umineko depicts him as always losing to Shannon because he started too late.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

But she didn't, she handed it out BEFORE the game but AFTER anyone would know she had done it, this does not seem very useful to anyone.

With handed afterward I mean they were supposed to receive it afterward. Sorry if I wasn't clear enough. Basically what I think Yasu did was saying 'if you do this, you'll receive money' then thrusted them to do as she said and sent the money anyway. They wouldn't know she had sent the money and obey her. Assuming the plan wasn't to kill them once they would get home they would find the money and if they managed to connect it to Shannon/Kanon/Yasu... well, if she really committed suicide it would make sense she had to send it beorehand, if she didn't but merely faked her death it still won't prove she's alive.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Well it seems someone was able to convert it onto the card, or the very least the money sent in the envelopes. After all, Krauss controlled Kinzo's money (the none-gold money), so Yasu must have got the payment from somewhere.

We don't really know if the money really came from the gold or from... let's say Kinzo's secret bank account.
I might be wrong but apparently Krauss didn't really control Kinzo's money that much, he just used Kinzo's name as insurance. Until Kinzo's death Kinzo controlled his own money. If after he died Krauss could have had access to Kinzo's money he could have paid his debts.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Hmm, that sounds shaky. I'd have been happier had you said that she always keeps her promises, so sends out the money because she said she would. However, this still wouldn't have been much piece of mind to the adults.

Well, as she decided to do that anyway she evidently decided to honour her promise. The 10 little indians reference was in regard to how she managed to persuade everyone to cooperate.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Which is why in confessions she has them cooperate just long enough to kill them easily. When looked at like that, it isn't hard to see why she needed to off Hideyoshi and Eva so soon in Ep 1, they had been part to a very risky move right off the bat.

The problem is actually here. Hideyoshi entered and had the chance to give a good look at the corpses so it's hard to think he didn't realize they weren't fake and the game was a real murder.
At this point they should have panicked, realized it wasn't a game and they had been tricked and tattled out what they know.
In Our Confession Yasu depicts everyone as pretty selfish so it's possible that on the gameboard Eva and Hideyoshi were willing to cooperate with a murderer but it's hard to think that the real Eva and Hideyoshi would do the same... unless Rokkenjima hosted quite a good group of monsters.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Well then why attempt the epitaph at all? She knew about the secret mansion and B2 long before it existed, so she mustn't have known the answer. Maybe she just solved it after Genji spoonfed Yasu some sweet sweet answer. And in a complete troll moment, wasn't her meta-witch the original Beatrice anyway (I don't really believe that, but it is interesting to think on)?

She liked quizzes and all Genji gave to Yasu was an info about where Kinzo had birth.
Technically Kumasawa was Yasu's teacher (same as Virgilia was for Beato) and as she might have behind some pranks and loved to spread rumors she might have represented the 'previous Beato'.
"Beatrice" is just a title after all.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

I believe it was stated that he was hired directly by Kinzo (ie through Genji) as were any servants who wore the one-winged eagle. This is why Natsuhi didn't trust him anyway, and why she had a special trust of Ghoda.

But this would require Kinzo's complicity as he would have to hire Shannon to play Kanon's role and you lack a motive for him to do this. Otherwise Shannon would have to be so good/devious to trick him into hiring her again, believing she was a boy, without even checking Kanon's reference and making Kanon a trusted servant even though he didn't know him or his background.
Plus remember Natsuhi tends to check the servants' work so if Shannon adn Kanon's schedule were to cross one of them wouldn't be able to do his job and she would notice.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

I guess that works with her creating this active persona of Beatrice, but this all comes back to how we interpret Ryu's words and Ange's reaction again.

I doubt Ange would commit suicide if she could pin the crime to Shannon as she would have proved her parents weren't teh culprits. She wouldn't need to die to paint over the truth she read her truth.

However Eva's diary while containing the truth might not have contained the WHOLE truth.
If Eva for example saw Kirye shooting at someone and wrote it in the diary this would be true but it wouldn't contain why Kirye shoot to that person. If Kirye did so because she believed that person was actually trying to kill her, regardless of this being true or false, Kirye wouldn't be an evil murderer, just someone who acted in what she believed was self defence.

But Eva couldn't know what was in Kirye's mind so her diary can't contain Kirye's motivations just what she had seen.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

Only if she wanted to make the Ushiromiya's suspect someone on the island of murder. Also, if she is as passive as you believe, why would she run away and abandon everything when nothing had changed otherwise? Running away and killing oneself are still actions she would have to take.

Escaping from problems is what people with passive stance does instead of trying to resolve their troubles.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

1. Wasn't the whole mirror smashing (which happened arguably in all games) meant to represent Shannon giving into Baetrice's taunts about staying passive leading to everything staying the same forever? This could be seen as her finally taking action....

That scene can be interepreted in many ways... if it even happened.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

2. There is the possibility she has shown resolve to hurt someone before. It is possible that the servant who disrespected Beatrice before falling down the stairs may have actually been a true story, and after all, we know Genji is good at quietly cleaning up the mess of his master....(we also suspect that Yasu apparently liked to make others believe in Beatrice, and post-mirror smash and post-Maria snapping, who know what she became capable of)

Yes, it's possible she's actually a psycotic who takes pleasure in hurting others. This solution is generally disliked because Umineko ranted about how displeasing is this sort of solution. Basically instead of EvilBattler of "Forgery No. XXX" you would have EvilYasu.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

3. People always bring up that we know almost nothing about R-Prime, but Ryu himself stated he gave out enough clues to know what happened with pretty much absolute certainty. If this causes people to complain that the only clues we have pertain to events that happened in the games, then that must be where the clues to what happened on R-Prime lie. After all, Battler does know the truth, he just doesn't remember it all at once.

To quote Ryukishi he might believe he actually gave enough clues but the same might not be true for his readers whose main complains however isn't the lack of clues but the lack of proofs to say that one of the many theories is the true one.

There are many, many theories about Prime but no one can pin one FOR SURE because there's not enough proofs to make it the only possible solution.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

A big theme in the games was the children's disgust over how their parents were acting over the money, maybe she read something about how her supposedly sinless parents let their greed take over all other morals, and got themselves and others killed in an otherwise avoidable manner.

Basically this was the truth she wanted as she wanted to pin Eva as culprit and I think she would even be fine if it was Rosa that was the culprit or Krauss. She wouldn't need to rewrite it.
Ange at the time was plagued by the Battler's family culprit theory that used Rudolf's dirty business and Battler's sudden return in the family to say her parents and brother killed everyone.
Likely it was this theory the one she wanted to rewrite with her 'death'.

[Kealym]

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

And what I was referring to with the windows, was if it was said in game there was a way to escape the room not using the windows I would be very interested to hear theories on it, if it were said on these boards there is less onus for it to be true.

Ah. I'm rather certain that, in the game, escape by the window was the only possible solution. At the same time, Erika never figures out Shkanon, so when she can't explain how Kanon escaped the Guesthouse, Beatrice essentially went "Well, whatever. I won't make you explain that trick, and we'll just assume that he does it 'somehow'." There's nothing else really available to use besides Shannon left by the window, activated Kanon mode for the lulz.

Originally Posted by GuestSpeaker

And the thing I was trying to say about Bern's puzzle is the white narration (which HAS to be true) said that "Nanjo was killed in the entrance hall to the guest house", which if we follow to the letter means that George's "no one could kill Doctor Nanjo inside the guesthouse!" false by default. Unless this is a translation error in the patch it is a logic error in the game for George NOT to be lying, hence why I chose him over Battler.

Ah, you're right. It still works though if 'killed' is being used as an adjective, which I guess it has to be. You can call it either a less than perfection moment in the translation, or just a hilariously misleading sentence. I dunno, I dunno how the original japanese line was. Anyways, the other side of what I meant is that when your reasoning gets down to "George or Battler, who's lying?" George doesn't have anyone he could have murdered, so he's out.

Well, VERY technically speaking, you might say George could have killed Kanon, but her game seems to both acknowledge and disregard Kanon, and it's more like he goes poof as soon as Shannon dies rather than being killed outright.