Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (March 11, 2011)

[TheForsaken]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

Too many know-it-alls shouting the loudest.

Everyone here knows who are shouting the loudest.

[Crimrui]

Terrible thing happened, I feel for them. Wish I could do more to help out besides the donation. If my country organized some kind of a trip to help, I would go there and give a hand in an instant, for free of course.

[MikaMiaka]

I haven't caught up on this thread, but I decided that since this is my last night in Tokyo, I might as well post something about my experience here thus far.

I'm from So.Cal, and have been here since January in a study abroad program.

I would choose to stay, but the US has "encouraged" citizens to leave. This means that the 'rents are up in arms, and there is no use but to please them. In a situation such as this, you have to satisfy the concerns of your family.

Everyone is freaking out. The Western news have sensationalized the events, and NHK have been urging calmness in their reporting. There has to be a balance between these two sources.

To tell you the truth, I have traveled far and wide and have not met a more dignified people. There is no looting, no hysterics, no divergence from the norm. The trains have been more quiet, Roponggi has been more subdued, Shibuya has been less lit, but the resiliency of the people have continued on.

There are less lights on at the Lawsons and at the Family Marts due to the rolling blackouts, but people can still see.

There are less supplies at the stores, but people are only taking one of everything as the supplies get diverged to the northeast.

I have not met a culture that can cope with everything, and nothing, all at once.

I love you Tokyo, please get well soon.

[Qikz]

Japanese reactor designer take on the Fukushima situation. (Once again wrote down the translation)

Spoiler for long:

http://www.ustream.tv/channel/iwakam..._medium=social - Japanese Scientist I presume explaining what's happening inside the reactors and explaining why certain things like the explosions have been happening. There's a translator there too so she says it in English.

Reactor 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 were all of the Mark I design where as Reactor 6 are of a mark II design. Mark I designs which even when it was built was known to be more dangerous. All the reactors were built by different companies which is why some are having different problems to others. The designs are relatively the same, but there's slight different in the materials used. The containment shield on Reactor 4 is alot more dangerous.

The suppresion chamber for the Mark II reactors is much bigger and more safer than the Mark 1 design. Due to the size of the suppresion chamber of Mark I is as there isn't enough room inside, if massive amounts of pressure builds up it's more likely to be completely broken. If it comes close radioactive material gets vented out to release pressure. However that's still better than a complete containment vessel breakage. Mark 2 has a much bigger supression chamber so not as much radioactive gases needed to be vented outside.

So with Reactor 1, 2, 3, 4 and 5 of Fukushima Daiichi - (First plant) are all built with the smaller suppresion vessels. Where as at Fukushima Daini - (Second Plant) are all of Mark II design. It wasn't until the 90s when Japan finally looked into the venting systems for their older designed reactors. So as a result I think what happened at Reactor 1 and 3 is exactly what the US predicted. In other words the coolant was lost and the pipes and tubes were damaged so the water level was lower so the fuel rod was exposed and so it started to melt which caused the hydrogen gas. As that happened the hydrogen steam and radioactive material were released. Some steam went down to release the pressure but the volume of the chamber is too small so the pressure kept going up and as for the hydrogen it started to accumulate at the top of the building and it is very volatile.

While the reactor is in operation it has this containment vessel over it. There's a ball like lid which goes ontop of the containment vessel with the flange which is a flat surface and there's bolts that connect them. However this flange is designed with pressure of up to 4 atmospheres. However inside this lid it goes up to 8 atmospheres which is twice the designed amount it should handle. So the pressure builds up and it tries to lift the lid and as that happens the botl started to open up. So it is possible based on this speculation that the hydrogen may have been released to the contact point. When that happens hydrogen starts to fill this operation floor. If the concentration of the hydrogen goes up since there's a lot of oxygen here it leads to spontanious combustion. All the reactors, 1-3 had hydrogen explosions but reactor 2 had one at the bottom where as 1 and 3 had explosions at the top of the building which means the mechanism of the explosion was different. So to summarise with Reactor 3 this is probably what happened. The tubes and the pipes on the inside were probably broken because of the earthquake and lost coolant and since the fuel rod was exposed it became damaged and the hydrogen that rose released the flange and hydrogen got out of the containment vessel lid. Then it started filling the operation floor. R2 same might have happened but through the release valve it went to the supression chamber below which is where the hydrogen was formed and that's how it probably exploded. So this is only hypothosis on the destruction process, what is important is that some steam went down the release valve where there was a loss of coolant and the hydrogen went to the top of the building so without explaining the process you can't work out this phenomenom and there isn't enough information to work out what exactly happened. When there was a hydrogen explosion the inside went up to 8 atmospheres and that was the problem.

The very abnormal situation should have been disclosed earliar and the cause of why that happened needs to be looked into. So what's important is to work out if there was a loss of coolant or not. TEPCO and the Government have said it was impossible to happen but if that is what actually happened they should come out and say so and as for the progress of this accident, if the pipes and valves are damaged, no matter how much water you put in, they can't fill the vessel. They should explain the pressure and temperature, Reactor 2 is of particular concern as it is possible it is boiling without water and that means it's melting down and it could mean it could melt down through the containment vessel. Some people say that if the accident ends up in this state and some say that's an overstatement and people are making too big of a deal, but they need to present a theory. There is still a possibility this could still lead to a massive steam explosion and they need to take action to make sure it doesn't get to this.

I would like to ask about the possible worst case scenario. You talk alot about Reactor 2 burning through. Is that likely to happen or is that your concern?

Currently there's a lot of attention being put on 3 and 4 with the hoses and water injections. With 2 before the water injection started there was no water in it already so therefore 2 I believe is in a very severe situation. However in the past 2 days there's not actually much reported in Reactor 1-3. no government reports have said anything about what's happening in the reactor core so I think that 2 could be in a very bad position. So it's very important they get electricity back in so they can pump water in a more normal way.

You talked about possible damage to the recirculation pipe/pump in 1-3 and the supression chamber of number 2. So the difference in the way they were damaged, would it lead to a different kind of damage?

That's not the message i wanted to convey, I just wanted to say there was no water in the reactor core and the reason for that would be because of those things. In the end the phenomenom would be the same and there's a possibility more meltdown would take place in the same way (not enough water) however I'm reporting mostly on reactor 2 as it was in a severe condition a few days ago however that's why I'm interested in it. I just wanted to talk about how the pressure built up and how the explosions happened where they did and that's what I looked into. I don't intent to emphasise that the pipe was leaking however that possibility was always pointed out from the past and they're a very complicated design so it might be what's broken but you'll never know until you look inside but in any rate it didn't involve large scale of damage as otherwise the water would leak almost instantly so the loss of coolant is probably from a gradual amount slowly leaking out.

When you say coolant water is it the same as the blue liquid you get in cars?

No, it's normal fresh water.

---

Based on what Tanaka-san said I would like to add a few things but first I would like to talk on the scale of international accidents that have happened in the past. So there's the international measure of accident scale of 0-7 and the most severe was Chernobyl at level 7. Another one is the three mile accident which was level 5. The accident that took place in Toukai known as the JCO accident is valued at level 4. The accident this time is described as level 4 in Japan I believe (now confirmed to be level 5), Level 4 accident is described as significant damage to the reactor core and level 5 is more damage to the core and we believe this is more serious than the Three Mile island accident. We are still in midst of the accident so it is not a good time to evaluate. Looking at what's happened so far I believe the situation is severe and some people rate this as a level 6 accident already.

Excuse me, according to the news of 6:02 the NIS said that the temporary rating of the accident that occured at 1-3 is now level 5 and is the same as 3 mile island and Reactor 4 is level 4.

So in the interest of time I'd like to breifly talk about to what Tanaka-san has already spoken about. So based on Tanaka-san's analysis by looking at the relationship between the pressure and containment vessel is a very sharp analysis. I almost truely agree with Tanaka-san's opinion. I'd like to make a few comments now.

The design critearia is that if the tubes and the pipes inside the containment vessel and even if steam is to be released the containment vessel will support the pressure and the added temperature. From the perspective as designers of the containment vessels the phenomenom of the pressure going up twice the reccomended amount is really unimaginable and that phenomanom can only take place in the lack of coolant. However the coolant accident is taken into account when designing even if the pressure of the containment vessel should go up past specification. What that means is that even if the pipe is broken and as a result the pressure goes up or even if the steam is released and goes into the supression pool, as long as the emergancy cooling system works the pressure of the containment vessel is not supposed to go up. This time around the power source didn't work and the emergency deisel generator didn't work so because of that ECS didn't work and the water level fell. So over a long period of time the core of the reactor was exposed. This is beyond the anticipations of the design criteria. So when that happens the containment vessel is not in a state that is in the design criteria so of course the pressure and temperature goes up. I've been researching the stregnth of Mark I and II reactors depending on type and how much it can withstand dangerous conditions. In particular I looked at the robustness to do with pressure and temperature. Mark I it can withstand 4.3 atmospheric pressure and with Mark II it can withstand 3.2 atmospheric pressure. And as for the temperature the design temperature for the drywell/containment vessel it is between 138-172 degrees. Earliar Tanaka-san talked about the ways the containment vessel can be damaged. So one supposition where the flange is located led to the bolts being released and that's where the gas was released from. I remember based on my memory that when the pressure reaches twice the designed pressure the flange starts to open up. However there's usually there's a casket inside or covered in rubber so even if moved slightly the gas doesn't leak.

There are 2 layers of rubber caskets and the temperature it can withstand is 200 degrees celcius. We don't have any data on what the temperature for the containment vessel so I can't say for sure but given the fact the temperature was 100 degrees the temperature at the top must have been high also. So as a result the lid started to be opened up and the casket was subjected to high degree of temperature and that's how it was damaged, which is possibly why the gas was released. Of course the containment vessel can be located in different areas so the stregnth may be different but it is quite plausable that the tophead was destroyed. So what I wanted to say after hearing Tanaka-san is that inside the reactor core because the ECCS didn't work the fuel ended up being exposed which caused the damage. So it's possible that the casket might have been damaged by high temperature as the gas rises and that's how gas was released. As for the stregnth for each component of the containment vessel I'd like to talk about that later. As for the ECCS and to answer the question on where it was located, it is inside and there is an emergancy generator inside. When the power was lost they tried to start the ECCS but that didn't work because of the tsunami. So that means the emergancy systems the plant had are not working so they are trying to inject water by different methods. Currently they are using the external systems such as fire trucks in otherwords they are making use with makeshift cooling systems where it's not as affective as internal so that's why it's not as effective and the plant is in danger. On top of that currently the radiation dose is high so it makes it difficult to be operating around that area. Earliar according to the report they would try to connect the external electricity so that power could be sent to the plant. According to the information I heard before so far that has not been successful. I cannot deny the possibility that the work has been quite difficult due to the radiation. I'm switching the subject to the cooling effort. They are currently spraying water to cool the spent fuel. Currently the helicopters was used to drop the water but as the radiation is high they have to fly very high so it makes it harder to aim and drop the water precisely. They've bought the firetrucks or the trucks to spray the water near the plant and that seems to be more realistic and the limitations are the radiation is high and it's hard to get the water in. Another fear I have is there is damage to the pool where the spent fuel is. Because of the earthquake or explosion there is the explosion that the pool container maybe damage which means the water could be leaking. If there is a hole somewhere and if water is leaking unless you inject more water than is leaking you can't raise the level of water. So the situation is very difficult to say the least due to the possibility I mentioned earliar.

Anyway the reactor core needs to be submerged and the pool needs to be in water, this is very important. Today Tanaka-san talked how the accident took place so I'd like to conclude what I'm saying. Actually I'd like to make one comment I recieved a question through email which I'd like to answer.

Sea Water is being injected but wouldn't that cause more problems as things could be clogged?

It is true that it may be problematic to use water that contains salt especially as it touches the surface of the valves. With certain pumps we hear that there were some troubles so that may be related but we can't be sure.

There's more questions but I need lunch. I wrote this down fast again so sorry if it reads badly. Bolded bits are questions asked by the press.

[Mystique]

Japan doing what they do best for the kids

Nuclear Boy

What's the deal with not being able to embed youtube videos on here anymore, btw?

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

200,000 people have been evacuated. It's fair to call an incident that triggers something like that a catastrophy. Especially considering that the country's resources are already stressed beyond their limits.

Comparisons with the tsunami, Chernobyl* or the zombie apocalypse are moot. The question is, how many people will die of cancer due to radiation poising in the next decades. 10, 100, 1000, 10000? The answer is we don't know because we lack the data. Highly irradiated spots have been discovered already beyond the evacuation zone so simply claiming that nothing will happen has no basis.

Too many know-it-alls shouting the loudest. A usual day on the internet.


* On a side note, it irks me to see the same lobbies that have been downplaying Chernobyl ever since it happened are suddenly painting a much darker picture of that event just because it makes Fukushima look so much brighter.

Catastrophe meaning anything over 5 on the INES scale. That would easily warrant a large evacuation of any international aid in the area.

I could respond how many more will die under the rubble of the coastlines while you and others like you act know-it-all over whether the Japanese are doing enough to contain the problem but I won't because it's pointless.

let the workers there do their job of containing the problem.

Screaming that TEPCO are concealing anything, even if they most likely are won't help one bit. If anything, it's fortunate that the situation isn't worse than it is given the state of things there.

Also, I would ask you take a look at readings taken from around the reactor itself before saying anything. The highest reported so far has been 400mSv/h around reactor 3.

[MikaMiaka]

Originally Posted by Qikz

Anyone know why they took the TBS stream down?

been trying to figure that out too. they have been showing every press conference but now it's gone. don't know what to make of it. i guess we have to depend on

http://www3.nhk.or.jp/nhkworld/index.html

*shrugs*

also, to monitor radiation, http://ftp.jaist.ac.jp/pub/emergency..._table.do.html

[j0x]

Originally Posted by Mystique

Japan doing what they do best for the kids

Nuclear Boy

What's the deal with not being able to embed youtube videos on here anymore, btw?

nice video they made the current nuclear problem simple to understand
and about youtube links its just like this

[ youtube ]<insert unique youtube video code here>[ /youtube ]

[Slice of Life]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

Catastrophe meaning anything over 5 on the INES scale. That would easily warrant a large evacuation of any international aid in the area.

Semantics.

I could respond how many more will die under the rubble of the coastlines while you and others like you act know-it-all over whether the Japanese are doing enough to contain the problem but I won't because it's pointless.

I have explicitly stated that I don't know enough about the situation. Nor did I say anything for or against the management of accident. Only about the information policy. Please criticize what I wrote not what you wish I wrote.

Screaming that TEPCO are concealing anything

I wasn't even talking about Tepco I was talking about the governemt (MEXT to be exact). Read what I write.

won't help one bit

Posting in this thread has no effect whatsoever on the situation in Japan in any case. Shall we close it?

Also, I would ask you take a look at readings taken from around the reactor itself before saying anything. The highest reported so far has been 400mSv/h around reactor 3.

1. I did
2. It's lethal within a short time period.
3. It doesn't even matter (except for those who have to work in the plant - but even they will avoid such areas and they are protected) because you can always build a fence around it.
4. What does matter is the radiation in the wider area. And not the dosis you take up in one hour but the next 10 years.

I did a back on the envelope calculation for the prefecture with significantly higher radiation measurements we have data for - Ibaraki. The main unknown (to me) is the half life of the isotopes though. Mostly weeks? Few cancer cases. Mostly 30 years? Many, many cancer cases.

Somebody could add some bits and and some more and in the end we'd all be smarter.

But it's not really worth it. Or practical.

Tell 2 people IRL that the sun sets in the west and you get 2 shrugs. Tell it to 2000 people on the internet and you get 1975 shrugs that remain invisible, 20 troll responses and 5 people that are honestly offended by that idea.

Lets continue this discussion in 25 years when the next absolutely safe reactor goes from one "shut up, this will never happen" to the next "shut up, this will never happen" stage in a 24h rhythm.

[bayoab]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

Highly irradiated spots have been discovered already beyond the evacuation zone so simply claiming that nothing will happen has no basis.

Have a link about this as I haven't seen mentions of hot spots on the ground yet.

Originally Posted by Qikz

Anyone know why they took the TBS stream down?

It was only meant to be a limited time thing to help spread information. There is a survey form in the description though that may convince them to continue.

[Qikz]

I just asked Danny Choo via his twitter and he said the same thing pretty much, they want people to watch TV instead of the internets so they've shut it down. It's kind of annoying for anyone outside of Japan who wants to follow what's happening as NHK's stream is either really far behind or they don't show any of the press conferences.

[TheForsaken]

Originally Posted by ckmox

nice video they made the current nuclear problem simple to understand
and about youtube links its just like this

[ youtube ]<insert unique youtube video code here>[ /youtube ]

I found the comments below so amusing

TEPCO management should be shot for their unability to act quickly and for stockpiling nuclear fuel in huge amounts without adequate protection. Current counter-measures are complete failure. Power must be given to international experts and huge bounties paid to rescue teams capable of doing anything. I also recommend suicide squad formed from TEPCO management and government workers. They deserve it and should have a chance to redeem what they did.

No, This reactor contains at least hundred times more nuclear material than Chernobyl. Also, population density as much, much higher around Fukushima. Worst case will be FARRR bigger in scale than Chernobyl. Millions can lose their home, work, health, some even life.

Fools are those who build nuclear stations where they can be both targer of tsunami and earthquake, in country known for frequent occurence of both, and store almost more than 11000 used fuel rods there.

Reactors are built this way, steel and concrete fortresses. That's why they cost billions. But still, reactor colling systems failed. Water disappeared. Reactor is getting hotter with every day, all efforts during this week are laughable publicity stunts. They do nothing and wait for unevitable to happen. Try to understand the fact that situation deteriorates with every hour and no one in control to do anything about it. In worst case there will be millions of homeless at least!

They have all reasons to worry about their health. Tomorrow wind will change and Tokyo will get a noticeable amount of radiation.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

Semantics.



I have explicitly stated that I don't know enough about the situation. Nor did I say anything for or against the management of accident. Only about the information policy. Please criticize what I wrote not what you wish I wrote.


I wasn't even talking about Tepco I was talking about the governemt (MEXT to be exact). Read what I write.



1. I did
2. It's lethal within a short time period.
3. It doesn't even matter (except for those who have to work in the plant - but even they will avoid such areas and they are protected) because you can always build a fence around it.
4. What does matter is the radiation in the wider area. And not the dosis you take up in one hour but the next 10 years.

I did a back on the envelope calculation for the prefecture with significantly higher radiation measurements we have data for - Ibaraki. The main unknown (to me) is the half life of the isotopes though. Mostly weeks? Few cancer cases. Mostly 30 years? Many, many cancer cases.

Somebody could add some bits and and some more and in the end we'd all be smarter.

MEXT don't even have the full picture. Naoto Kan himself was un-informed until an hour later at a critical juncture. 400mSv/H is far from lethal in a short period. The readings you see in the further zones aren't even that. Get your facts straight first before calling others names.

There's a radiation leak at a plant. What do you expect? Of course the surrounding area will be contaminated with rises in cancer rates. But there is nothing so far to suggest there must be a permanent exclusion zone around the plant like that around Chernobyl. More than the 30km anyway. Fukushima itself is at the boundary before cancer risk rises and it's 60km away.

Lets continue this discussion in 25 years when the next absolutely safe reactor goes from one "shut up, this will never happen" to the next "shut up, this will never happen" stage in a 24h rhythm.

don't even know what you're trying to get across here. Since where did I say that the reactor was "absolutely safe"?

[Aquifina]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

I heard it withdrew because of the radiation. In any case, I'm sure the US military has independent means to get the data they want and presses hard on the Japanese government to get access to their data.

You're attacking straw men.

From the NY Times:

The new setbacks emerged as the first readings from American data-collection flights over the plant in northeastern Japan showed that the worst contamination had not spread beyond the 19-mile range of highest concern established by Japanese authorities.

But another day of frantic efforts on Thursday to cool nuclear fuel in the troubled reactors and in the plant’s spent-fuel pools resulted in little or no progress, according to United States government officials. The crisis at the plant seemed increasingly to have produced divergent narratives in Washington and Tokyo, with Japanese officials emphasizing the efforts they were making to tame the damaged plant and American officials highlighting the challenges.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/19/wo...9japan.html?hp

I also saw a report of a USN ship diverting its route due to radiation concerns (although I can't recall if it was the carrier strike group), but other US monitoring seems to indicate that *for the moment* radiation hasn't spilled out of the exclusion zone. With substantial US forces deployed in the general area, and no incentive to downplay things, I think this is about as "independent" an assessment of radiation levels as we can expect.

[Green²]

<Units 5 and 6>
・ Emergency Diesel Generator (1 unit) for Unit 6 is operable and supplying electricity to Units 5 and 6. Water injection to the PRV and Spent Fuel Pool through MUWC is progressing
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/f...20110318-2.pdf

____________


Unit 5 Spent Fuel Pool Water Temperature at 65.5 ℃ at 03:00 March 18th.
Unit 5 Spent Fuel Pool Water Temperature at 66.3 ℃ at 13:00 March 18th.

Unit 6 Spent Fuel Pool Water Temperature at 62.0 ℃ at 03:00 March 18th.
Unit 6 Spent Fuel Pool Water Temperature at 64.0 ℃ at 13:00 March 18th.

____________


<Spent Fuel Storage Facility>
・ It was confirmed that the water level of spent fuel storage pool was maintained full at after 06:00 March 18


<Spent Fuel Shared Storage Facility>
・ As of 11:19 March 18th, the water temperature in the pool is 55℃.

http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/f...20110318-2.pdf
http://www.nisa.meti.go.jp/english/f...20110318-3.pdf

[omimon]

^Wait are those temperatures good?

[Ithekro]

Below the boiling point of water, so yes that is good.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by Aquifina

From the NY Times:

The new setbacks emerged as the first readings from American data-collection flights over the plant in northeastern Japan showed that the worst contamination had not spread beyond the 19-mile range of highest concern established by Japanese authorities.

But another day of frantic efforts on Thursday to cool nuclear fuel in the troubled reactors and in the plant’s spent-fuel pools resulted in little or no progress, according to United States government officials. The crisis at the plant seemed increasingly to have produced divergent narratives in Washington and Tokyo, with Japanese officials emphasizing the efforts they were making to tame the damaged plant and American officials highlighting the challenges.

http://www.nytimes.com/2011/03/19/wo...9japan.html?hp

I also saw a report of a USN ship diverting its route due to radiation concerns (although I can't recall if it was the carrier strike group), but other US monitoring seems to indicate that *for the moment* radiation hasn't spilled out of the exclusion zone. With substantial US forces deployed in the general area, and no incentive to downplay things, I think this is about as "independent" an assessment of radiation levels as we can expect.

If the carrier has moved to avoid radiation plumes blowing out to sea, it's only natural I would think.

[RRW]

Originally Posted by omimon

^Wait are those temperatures good?

actually bad thing because its reactor 5&6 which doesn't have problem before

[JokerD]

Well, taking a break from the nuclear thing, not sure if this has been posted but:

Earthquake, before and after.
(mouse-over and slide)
http://www.channelnewsasia.com/annex/japanquake.htm

Terashima looks especially bad