Index Novel Sales Figures and Discussion

[Natsurin]

Originally Posted by Kuroageha

I disagree here, for example, DRRR SH, sequel to DRRR like NT is to OT did terribly bad in sales, so bad I laughed (because Narita was legit at fault here), however the anime actually gave a huge boost to their sales making it sell good again.

I've learnt this the hard way when trying to get people to try out visual novels, though I'm well aware LNs are a much different medium and a lot more convenient and accessible anywhere than the restrictive VN stage, but the average person often simply doesn't want to invest themselves in regularly following a novel of any sort or simply doesn't have the time/motivation to, preferring having the material adapted in what they find to be a convenient everyday format like anime or manga, and as much as I hate that mindset popularity also has a lot to do with what makes it or breaks it amongst other issues that may help or interfere.

Durarara is established as one of the must-watches of the anime world and its first novel series is only about half the length in volumes as Index OT alone, so naturally the new anime would boost sales for a sequel they think will keep the same atmosphere as the show they dearly loved (the poor souls) so we can't say they share the same situation here.

And SAO is a very popular title regardless of what we may think of it, its sales reflect that while Index's (assuming there's nothing wrong with Oricon's counts) reflect a gradually declining interest. The reason I'm saying future seasons wouldn't help is because if they wanted to boost sales for NT volumes they'd have to adapt NT content since OT sales won't help NT's situation. There's a massive gap of content between where the anime left off and the sheer amount of things that happened in the meanwhile that Index III just can't salvage entirely on its own (basically requiring to still catch up to OT and then NT for boosted sales) for a series having as little popularity compared to other major players in the grand anime stage as Index.

[Kuroageha]

They might not even do that and go for a movie a la Accel World skipping novels but using the cast introduced in said novels.

[dniv]

I definitely see and agree with a lot of your points. But I'd like to respond to the both of you first in this one way.

I think that what I'm claiming is that both SAO and Index are having reduced sales because in this hypothetical there would be extra digital sales which represent DL novels of SAO and Index being bought which we can't see because they aren't being tracked by Oricon. Maybe that isn't the case, but that was what I was trying to imply. I'm not just saying that Oricon only does this to Index. That would just be a desperate, silly theory from a fan attempting to escape from reality.

I just wish we could learn more about how Oricon tabulates sales. That'd help answer our questions.

Either way, I think Index III could hugely boost sales. Regardless of whether people think it will be overlooked or not. If it looks amazing enough, I think it could draw people into the series. Not to mention, if it ever manages to surpass that animation threshold of this is so good that you should slog through two seasons of anime to watch this because it is done so well, then it gets easier to try to convince people to watch the shows, since it'll be easier to prove your point that amazing stuff from the series exists. You only need to show a short scene or two out of context and you're good...

Of course, I agree that Durarara's situation is very different from Index's situation. But I also do believe that if Index ever got a season like FSN has been animated, then it would do much better. I don't think there's anyone who used to watch this series that will refuse to watch season 3. Everyone knows that season 3 is when things get really good, and I think just that could easily guarantee that old fans would be willing to shell out money on it even if they aren't fans of the series anymore because of dying hype.

But I think you worded it quite well, it's inconvenience, and a lack of desire to try something new and different that often makes people too uncomfortable or unmotivated to go out of their way to try reading something like Index even upon recommendation...

[Natsurin]

Originally Posted by Kuroageha

They might not even do that and go for a movie a la Accel World skipping novels but using the cast introduced in said novels.

Well, having not read Accel World I can't vouch for how good of a strategy that is, but seeing how there's just this really massive gap between the adapted and yet-to-be content, pulling a similar approach may be considerably more difficult when you see how Kamachi writes his stories (heck, he might not even agree to shunning out so much content in the first place) and such an approach would probably alienate the existing community just for the sake of gathering more sales which it can't really afford when needing to boost sales.

I mean, NT getting adapted content even though we have yet to see the brilliant Battle Royale and British Halloween Arcs in anime form with art like the one in Railgun S? What even.

As much as I'm hoping Index will find a way to push its sales back up in order to avoid the Bleach treatment and not just temporarily while an anime airs, at this point I wouldn't hold my breathe unless they pull the A-1 move of announcing adaptations for all content with a strategy good and solid enough to cover NT's ass despite Index's lack of SAO-comparable popularity. Preferably without having Miki commit seppuku in front of the audience now.

[IceHism]

Originally Posted by dniv

I definitely see and agree with a lot of your points. But I'd like to respond to the both of you first in this one way.

I think that what I'm claiming is that both SAO and Index are having reduced sales because in this hypothetical there would be extra digital sales which represent DL novels of SAO and Index being bought which we can't see because they aren't being tracked by Oricon. Maybe that isn't the case, but that was what I was trying to imply. I'm not just saying that Oricon only does this to Index. That would just be a desperate, silly theory from a fan attempting to escape from reality.

I just wish we could learn more about how Oricon tabulates sales. That'd help answer our questions.

Either way, I think Index III could hugely boost sales. Regardless of whether people think it will be overlooked or not. If it looks amazing enough, I think it could draw people into the series. Not to mention, if it ever manages to surpass that animation threshold of this is so good that you should slog through two seasons of anime to watch this because it is done so well, then it gets easier to try to convince people to watch the shows, since it'll be easier to prove your point that amazing stuff from the series exists. You only need to show a short scene or two out of context and you're good...

Of course, I agree that Durarara's situation is very different from Index's situation. But I also do believe that if Index ever got a season like FSN has been animated, then it would do much better. I don't think there's anyone who used to watch this series that will refuse to watch season 3. Everyone knows that season 3 is when things get really good, and I think just that could easily guarantee that old fans would be willing to shell out money on it even if they aren't fans of the series anymore because of dying hype.

But I think you worded it quite well, it's inconvenience, and a lack of desire to try something new and different that often makes people too uncomfortable or unmotivated to go out of their way to try reading something like Index even upon recommendation...

It's very simple as to how oricon records sales. Oricon partners with the majority of stores in the nation. Maybe some small store in a rural area isn't there but no worries. It's small. So basically, stores just send their receipts to oricon. Most do it at the end of the day but some only send it in at the end of the week. Oricon counts the receipts and amount of copies bought and records it. Then they release the daily chart at the end of the day or the weekly one at the end of the week and so on.

So yes, it's only physical. A lot of people complain why they don't record digital sales though so you aren't alone there lol. It'd be nice if Amazon or dengeki release the digital sales exactly but I guess they don't.

[LevelSeven]

Originally Posted by dniv

Then that's not actually so bad is it lol? That could be an effective strategy excuse to keep the series continuing for longer lol.

but if the popularity drops while the price for one volume increases than it could result in a even worse outcome

[Callum18]

I have said this before, and I say it again, this series needs its anime!

Don't get me wrong, the series does great speaking its a long series and it has no anime airing at the moment. But if you look at the sales now to what they were back 2013 when the movie and Railgun S was airing, you will see the sales have drop by over half! This proofs that even if a 3rd season comes, it would 100% help sales. While the Raildex series has aways done great, it was the animes that really took the series off. I am sure if a new season did come and it cover the rest of OT, then I'm sure people would pick up NT and catch up with the series. Hack, Index III is where the series gets really good. It would be a shame not to a least finish off OT.

[dniv]

Originally Posted by IceHism

It's very simple as to how oricon records sales. Oricon partners with the majority of stores in the nation. Maybe some small store in a rural area isn't there but no worries. It's small. So basically, stores just send their receipts to oricon. Most do it at the end of the day but some only send it in at the end of the week. Oricon counts the receipts and amount of copies bought and records it. Then they release the daily chart at the end of the day or the weekly one at the end of the week and so on.

So yes, it's only physical. A lot of people complain why they don't record digital sales though so you aren't alone there lol. It'd be nice if Amazon or dengeki release the digital sales exactly but I guess they don't.

That's good to know. Thanks for sharing. It's at least hope-inducing lol.

Originally Posted by LevelSeven

but if the popularity drops while the price for one volume increases than it could result in a even worse outcome

That depends. If the price increase is very small, and it only happens once or twice, and the quality increases to boot, then I wouldn't worry about it. Of course, you do still have a point though. But as has been pointed out before, 50k while small for Index is still a blockbuster hit for LN's. As long as it is at least 10K (which will probably happen for a while to come) then it's probably not in any danger of being ended soon...? Though I do think an anime would help rejuvenate interest in it.

Originally Posted by Callum18

I have said this before, and I say it again, this series needs its anime!

Don't get me wrong, the series does great speaking its a long series and it has no anime airing at the moment. But if you look at the sales now to what they were back 2013 when the movie and Railgun S was airing, you will see the sales have drop by over half! This proofs that even if a 3rd season comes, it would 100% help sales. While the Raildex series has aways done great, it was the animes that really took the series off. I am sure if a new season did come and it cover the rest of OT, then I'm sure people would pick up NT and catch up with the series. Hack, Index III is where the series gets really good. It would be a shame not to a least finish off OT.

Yeah. We don't really know what they're thinking. Maybe they're just too pessimistic about the anime. We'll see if it ever happens anyway. I just hope that Kamachi gets a good anime adaptation at some point and that rejuvenates interest in his series so it increases the chances of a future season III, but I'm not really sure about how likely that is... lol. Regardless, I toughed it out for 10 years for FMP... so to be honest, this is nothing.

[LevelSeven]

Originally Posted by dniv

That depends. If the price increase is very small, and it only happens once or twice, and the quality increases to boot, then I wouldn't worry about it. Of course, you do still have a point though. But as has been pointed out before, 50k while small for Index is still a blockbuster hit for LN's. As long as it is at least 10K (which will probably happen for a while to come) then it's probably not in any danger of being ended soon...? Though I do think an anime would help rejuvenate interest in it.

ohh, if the difference is really that hugh than there is no need to worry, on the other hand there is also no need to make animes for promotion,
if 50k are top tier than the fear of axing is unnecessary,
PS: i doubt that a increase in quality would happen while at the same time the sales drop, mostlikely the quality-drop is the very reason for the decrease of sales in the first place

[dniv]

Originally Posted by LevelSeven

ohh, if the difference is really that hugh than there is no need to worry, on the other hand there is also no need to make animes for promotion,
if 50k are top tier than the fear of axing is unnecessary,
PS: i doubt that a increase in quality would happen while at the same time the sales drop, mostlikely the quality-drop is the very reason for the decrease of sales in the first place

Lol. I agree with the quality drop. But I'm saying that he'll be more motivated to increase the quality because the anime gives it a chance to be more popular lol. Writer fatigue is a thing and it does exist.

Also, yeah, I've heard 10K is a success and 6K is fairly decent for LN's... so 50K even for first week sales should be just fine. :P It's sad for Index, but still totally fine for it.

[belatkuro]

Aug. 15-21 sales:

*4.　17,547　*67,671　Shinyaku Toaru Majutsu no Index Vol.16

[Kuroageha]

This volume selling less than NT vol.15 on its second week.

*7.　10,111　*75,104　Shinyaku Toaru Majutsu no Index Vol.15.

Spoiler:

Japan actually liked Kamisato and I read some discussions comparing him with Hachiman Hikigaya, albeit I don't know much about this other character aside from the "cutting people" approach to problems.

[ACertainStark]

Originally Posted by Kuroageha

This volume selling less than NT vol.15 on its second week.

*7.　10,111　*75,104　Shinyaku Toaru Majutsu no Index Vol.15.

Spoiler:

Japan actually liked Kamisato and I read some discussions comparing him with Hachiman Hikigaya, albeit I don't know much about this other character aside from the "cutting people" approach to problems.

Spoiler for NT16:

Yeah, I was scanning bookmeter and whatnot and a lot of people had positive impressions on him. Especially after this volume.

Not sure if it'll make it to 80k.

[entei08]

The second week count this time was four days less than the last book, considering NT15 was sold on the 9th and the cut off day was Apr 24. I think NT16 would just reach 70k if we give it four more days. That's quite close anyway.

[Callum18]

Not even the bait cover could up the sales! NOOOOOOOO!

Yup, we need you know what to happen now.

[mark1246]

This what happen when you publish your LN against a juggernaut like SAO & even still surprise that Ero sensei one only got 40k since it the guy who did my sister can't be cute

At least in Dec there will be no excuse we can make up if it doesn't sale well again

[dniv]

Lol still didn't buy mine yet. Gonna do that today. I guess any help is better than nothing.

[DragonXX]

Originally Posted by mark1246

This what happen when you publish your LN against a juggernaut like SAO & even still surprise that Ero sensei one only got 40k since it the guy who did my sister can't be cute

At least in Dec there will be no excuse we can make up if it doesn't sale well again

It could still be Nov. when the next book come out or do we know what book Kamachi is releasing in Nov. already?

[mark1246]

Originally Posted by DragonXX

It could still be Nov. when the next book come out or do we know what book Kamachi is releasing in Nov. already?

well we have Heavy Object in September, BooBoo in October, im betting Blood Sign in Nov, then index in Dec which would fit the theme of christamas once again

[Marcus H.]

This what happen when you publish your LN against a juggernaut like SAO & even still surprise that Ero sensei one only got 40k since it the guy who did my sister can't be cute

Ero-sensei's probably relying on Hiro Kanzaki's illustrations, the same way Yomi Hirasaka's Haganai and Imouto Sae Ireba Ii were boosted by Buriki and Kantoku respectively.