Will 2006 Mark The Beginning of the End for Fan Subs?

[Ronbo]

In order to combat video piracy and protect the copyright content of broadcast shows aired in HD, certain technologies had to be developed and implemented in order to do so.

Phase 1: Televisions, http://tv.about.com/od/hdtv/a/hdmidvihdcp.htm
Phase 2: Electronic Devices, http://www.boingboing.net/2006/02/22...n_resale_.html
Phase 3: Player/recorders: HD-DVD & Blue Ray
Phase 4: Computers, http://arstechnica.com/articles/paed...hdcp-vista.ars
Phase 5: Content Format: H.264

Separately none of these phases really amount to anything, but combined 2006 may very well mark the beginning of the end, as we know it, to fan subbed Anime!
Why 2006? Because by the end of 2006 all of these phases are to be in place!

I had known about these developments for quite some time now but it was not until I read ATI’s white paper on H.264 http://www.atitech.com/products/pdf/H264_Whitepaper.pdf that everything sort of fell into place.

Once implemented, only HDCP compliant devices will be able to process, play and record true HD content. And even then we will be limited as to what we can do with that content.

Since we all know (or should by now) what HD-DVD, Blue RAY and h.264 are I felt no need to supply links to these phases. However there is something that I feel is necessary to point out!
Both HD-DVD & Blue Ray have adopted h.264 for encoding.
Why is this important?
Because true HD h.264 encodes will be scaled down to DVD resolutions (480p), in these devices, automatically unless your display (monitor or television) is HDCP compliant!

Make of this as you will, but I fear wheels are turning behind the scenes and forces unknown to us have slipped in unnoticed while we were sleeping that may very well, over time, mark the end of fan subbed Anime!

[Kurz]

If there is a will there is a way.

I doubt it'll mark the end for Fansubs. Maybe slow it down for a few months until some programer comes along and cracks it.

The biggest fault of all these systems is the need to decode the file inorder to play. No matter how much encryption there is, that need is still there.

People will find a way to reverse engineer these systems.

[Komataguri]

Nothing is perfect, technology is always beaten by determined young men and women in their basements late at night.


It will be nothing than a minor hinderance if nothing else.

[TronDD]

They can video tape their TV screens for all I care. Fansubs aren't about a high quality copy of the show. It's about the subs. Understanding a show that is not in English.

[Nightbat®]

Heh,...

I always laugh when I see Sony Entertainment complain about piracy
while Sony Electronics is developing the means to do so

[¤ Naruto ¤]

LOL indeed a good point nightbat. It seems as technology changes alot of things affect it. But this is just a level of change and soon everything will be like it was before. There are always people out there willing to do the impossible.

[Eeknay]

How does any of this affect fansubs? All of this is dealing with the prevention of copying HD material via the "analogue loophole". It has no bearing on how fansubbers go about their business. It is a pain in the neck for HD rippers, but it's already been partialy workedaround anyway (a- google dvimagic, b- japanese hd players won't downconvert even with the flag enabled because it's illegal)

Also your facts are wrong. First, the downscaled output is 540p. Second, it doesn't happen automagically. The discs have a flag that says whether or not to do it over Component, and most studios so far have said they WON'T be downscaling. A large amount of HDTVs only have Component or have DVI that isn't HDCP compliant, so releasing movies which cripple your viewing capabilties to legitimate customers isn't too smart (then again, this is the movie industry we're talking about).

Your run of the mill fansubs won't be affected by this. Heck, even HD fansubs won't be. All of this only becomes problematic once you have a physical product you bought and want to play it on your TV/PC without HDMI/DVI HDCP.

[DaFool]

There will be fansubs.

1.) As Eeknay said using the flag that way is illegal in Japan.
2.) The whole HD recording industry technology was pioneered by otakus. It's true...search for the 2004 JETRO report. Why would they engineer something that will totally deprive them off their love for recording shows, huh?

[Nightbat®]

Originally Posted by ¤ Naruto ¤

LOL indeed a good point nightbat. It seems as technology changes alot of things affect it. But this is just a level of change and soon everything will be like it was before. There are always people out there willing to do the impossible.

it isn't so much the technology
it's the hypocracy of those /fighting/developing it


Like in my example of Sony -vs- ...Sony?
any sane human would be at a "WTF" level, it's like family betraying their own
don't say "they couldn't have known the technology would be abused"
because it's not,.. it's used exactly for what it was developped
and they're co-responsible for ripping their sister-company off

[Ending]

It will take years before these changes have any effect at the level of users and during this time they have many chances to die off. Besides, like said already; it's just a small change in how the content is ripped from the original media. Or rather: do we use Ripper v5.1 or Ripper v2006.

[Ronbo]

One thing I failed to mention is that along with HD-DVD and Blue Ray comes a new region assignment for Japan.

Japan will now be included in region 1!

How this will effect fan sub groups that consider subbing region 1 licensed anime titles as taboo will prove to be interesting! Licensed or not, these titles will be designated as region 1 from the get go!

Perhaps now would be good time to educate oneself in regards to copyright law and determine exactly what it means to license an anime title.

[Soulfang]

Originally Posted by Ronbo

One thing I failed to mention is that along with HD-DVD and Blue Ray comes a new region assignment for Japan.

Japan will now be included in region 1!

How this will effect fan sub groups that consider subbing region 1 licensed anime titles as taboo will prove to be interesting! Licensed or not, these titles will be designated as region 1 from the get go!

Perhaps now would be good time to educate oneself in regards to copyright law and determine exactly what it means to license an anime title.

I think the determination for that would be if the series has English subtitles or not. What might be interesting, though, would be if anime companies decide to effectively "license" their series themselves buy putting English subtitles on their DVDs, considering the regions are now shared...

Although that's not likely to happen, I wonder what effect that would have on the industry as a whole?

[Ronbo]

Originally Posted by Soulfang

I think the determination for that would be if the series has English subtitles or not. What might be interesting, though, would be if anime companies decide to effectively "license" their series themselves buy putting English subtitles on their DVDs, considering the regions are now shared...

Although that's not likely to happen, I wonder what effect that would have on the industry as a whole?

Herein lays the problem!
Several attempts have been made to establish the English language as the official language of the U.S. Each and every time this notion has been dismissed. If the U.S. government will not accept the English language as its official language then how can fan subbed anime using English subtitles be considered an infringement of anime titles licensed by U. S. companies?

[Eeknay]

Originally Posted by Ronbo

One thing I failed to mention is that along with HD-DVD and Blue Ray comes a new region assignment for Japan.

Japan will now be included in region 1!

How this will effect fan sub groups that consider subbing region 1 licensed anime titles as taboo will prove to be interesting! Licensed or not, these titles will be designated as region 1 from the get go!

Perhaps now would be good time to educate oneself in regards to copyright law and determine exactly what it means to license an anime title.

Keyword; licensed. Groups source their fansubs from R2 DVDs quite a lot, but no one bats an eyelid until it's licensed. Japan being the same region just makes it easier for people to import and play their anime (even though multi region players have negated this, but whatever).

Honestly I think you're blowing the whole thing out of proportion.

[Aoie_Emesai]

The stronger the restriction the stronger the will of people to break such things. And there are very knowledgeable people out there that can, and probably will break the coding down so it can be avaliabe for distribution for the internet.

"Nothing's Impossible, just improbable"

There are people out there that will just break the code just because they can, whether it's a exhilaration or just cause they a large supporter of FanSubs. New programs will come for us, though it will take a while just like it did for CD burners to come into the widespread.

[Lambda]

HD-DVD and Blu-ray will fail, just as the likes of DVD-audio. They offer no advantages over DVD for the majority, (since you need both very good equipment and good eyes to see any difference), and they have huge DRM drawbacks.

DVD's, like music CD's and mp3's, are (effectively) open, ubiquitous, and 'good enough'. That means there's very little chance of replacing them. And anyone trying not just to replace them, but to replace them with a system crippled by DRM is simply deluded.

[Komataguri]

HD-DVD and Blu-Ray isn't just for movies anymore, we're talking about games.


and I think atleast Blu-Ray will suceed for games.


More room on disks = Higher poly counts = more detailed textures = higher sound quality = more expansive words = great joy.

[Animizzle]

I can speak fairly decent english but honest to god I don't understand anything the thread starter posted. The technical language is overwhelming .

[Ryuu-Odjn]

Originally Posted by Lambda

HD-DVD and Blu-ray will fail, just as the likes of DVD-audio. They offer no advantages over DVD for the majority, (since you need both very good equipment and good eyes to see any difference), and they have huge DRM drawbacks.

DVD's, like music CD's and mp3's, are (effectively) open, ubiquitous, and 'good enough'. That means there's very little chance of replacing them. And anyone trying not just to replace them, but to replace them with a system crippled by DRM is simply deluded.

Also the real advantages of HD-DVD and BR won't be felt for some time, simply because of the requirements to actually benefit from them. Until they and HDTV's fall to the price of a normal TVs and DVD players, then they simply won't take off. The trade off for DRM isn't worth it, nor is the quality hugely better than DVD, unless you have a decent (expensive) set-up at the moment. It's basically too early to move from DVDs.

[Aoie_Emesai]

Since the technology required for Blue-Ray DVDs is still advance, the technology for them will be expensive too. We are average people, we can't afford a 1000$ dvd player. Plus the storage of the Blue-Ray DVDs are so massive, it's not really pratical exept for external storage.