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Old 2013-08-24, 13:09   Link #641
Ichuki
┌(^o^)┘モリ!┌(^o^)┘モリ!
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Quote:
Originally Posted by spirits having flown View Post
Saimoe 2013, I'd love to see the Saki vs The Puella Magi, and as always, I am looking at Group H to support the Blue one.

What's with the low vote totals? Where are the days when Mamicita could rack (no pun intended) 500 votes?
They blocked foreign IPs and made code generating a pain.
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Old 2013-08-24, 13:19   Link #642
iamadooddood
NOM.
 
 
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Singapore
Age: 31
Curse the multivoters. Forced the organisers to screw up the voting system to make things fairer.

Ah well.

Also, I just noticed.
Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
Spoiler for Day 2:
Spoiler for Day 2 remarks:


Quote:
Originally Posted by chaosprophet View Post
Not sure about this though. For instance they do have extra rules fro when two girls tie on first that results in we only getting the set amount of girls for repechage. There is no description about 2nd place ties though... So maybe you are right and an extra girl participate.

Oh and btw, thanks for doing the translations ion475.
It should be obvious as to what will happen haha.

I'm more interested in seeing a tied result in the final.
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Old 2013-08-24, 14:34   Link #643
zato_1one
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Apr 2006
Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
And as to the result? The low vote total today is all thanks to Biribiri multi-voting. The multi-voter for Biribiri also multi-vote for Tenshi I believe, hence that "upset" by Erica against Tenshi in Group Final (Well, either that or the lack of foreign vote makes Tenshi a lot weaker...I mean, just look at ISML and the amonut of Biribiri and Tenshi votes...)
Which always makes me wonder if said tournament also suffers from multi-voting or not...
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Old 2013-08-24, 15:05   Link #644
wontaek
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Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
Quote:
Originally Posted by zato_1one View Post
Which always makes me wonder if said tournament also suffers from multi-voting or not...
ISML finds and throws away thousands of multivotes every match. It is ISML's policy to accept and count all votes that seems more likely to be legit distinctive human votes, compared to being a multivote by illegitimate means. This means that actual number of votes that have non-negligible chance of being a multivote is even higher, but we choose to not risk rejecting 20 legit votes in order to eliminate 10 multivotes.
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Last edited by wontaek; 2013-08-24 at 15:26.
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Old 2013-08-24, 15:20   Link #645
Demi.
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Join Date: Feb 2007
Location: Florida
Age: 37
If multivotes can bypass Saimoe's convoluted system, then they can surely do it with ISML too. You know it to be true, Wontaek.
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Old 2013-08-24, 15:37   Link #646
wontaek
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Join Date: Oct 2006
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Demi. View Post
If multivotes can bypass Saimoe's convoluted system, then they can surely do it with ISML too. You know it to be true, Wontaek.
Yes, but then, would you want to risk rejecting 100 legit votes in order to root out 20 multivotes? I do not want to make dozens of people lose their vote because of wrong doing of one or two person. Still, ISML has many safe guards thus I am very confident that less than 10% of the votes ISML reports are from multivoters.

Also, you have to be careful about the whole thing, lest you run into Emiya Kiritsugu situation near the end of Fate/Zero. If you start banning groups of people for having some bad people among them, you will raise the temptation of other people to cheat, because your 2nd vote will have much greater impact when voter pool is smaller. Soon, you will find that you have to ban another group of people for having some cheaters, again shrinking the voter pool, and thus again increasing the temptation to cheat. Before long, you will end up with only one voter, you yourself.
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Old 2013-08-24, 18:46   Link #647
chaosprophet
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Join Date: Jun 2008
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In that regard a difference between ISML and AST, which is likely one reason that makes ISML more popular is how they do vote checking.

AST makes the voter do most of the work, by making the vote process all that complicated. While in ISML case is the staff that have to do the most work, resulting in a simple voting process. And the problem with AST mean is that they are punishing all voters because of those who would multivote by making the voting process a hassle and in many cases not even letting people vote
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Old 2013-08-24, 19:49   Link #648
Coldlight
Sayaka★Magica
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
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Quote:
Originally Posted by spirits having flown View Post
Saimoe 2013, I'd love to see the Saki vs The Puella Magi, and as always, I am looking at Group H to support the Blue one.

What's with the low vote totals? Where are the days when Mamicita could rack (no pun intended) 500 votes?
Speaking of. Glad to see you back! Now there are four of us here in Sayaka's camp within the MadoMagi faction. You, iamadooddood, Triple_R and myself.

I agree, vote totals are appaling - it's even worse than what we remember from two years ago. There is a captcha (using hiragana and katakana) now for code generation. Even so, early on during the prelims, some people here were able to get codes - and I was able to reach a code generation page that told me when to refresh (meaning, I could eventually get one too). So, even though it became more complicated than last time, I'd say we have hope of actually lending support this year. It's a miracle compared to last year's near total ban.
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Old 2013-08-24, 22:04   Link #649
iamadooddood
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Join Date: May 2013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldlight View Post
Speaking of. Glad to see you back! Now there are four of us here in Sayaka's camp within the MadoMagi faction. You, iamadooddood, Triple_R and myself.

I agree, vote totals are appaling - it's even worse than what we remember from two years ago. There is a captcha (using hiragana and katakana) now for code generation. Even so, early on during the prelims, some people here were able to get codes - and I was able to reach a code generation page that told me when to refresh (meaning, I could eventually get one too). So, even though it became more complicated than last time, I'd say we have hope of actually lending support this year. It's a miracle compared to last year's near total ban.
Hey, I'm not exactly in the MadoMagi faction, y'know... just Sayaka.

About the multivotes thing. Do you think AST will ever think of implementing what ISML is doing?
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Old 2013-08-25, 00:54   Link #650
KanbeKotori
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Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
20% and 25% aren't that much of a difference anyway. And yes, that's how little confidence I have in GuP now, unless they perform so well in the main round that I change my mind.
Well, going by a large sample size I'd say there's quite a difference even if it's just 0.05 more.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
Point taken. But there should still be another reason for the sudden decline in votes. The IP restriction kicked in way before last year.
You forgot they made it tighter every year to combat against foreign voting.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
... I forgot what my argument against this was. Bleh. Gimme some time to recall.

EDIT: Recalled. The stronger the voter base, the lower the percentage of voters needed to vote for a girl to make it to the main round. Of course it's safer to have 100% every time since the minimum percentage is unknown until the results come out (by then there's nothing you can do about it), but that's an ideal case that's not gonna happen every time. So significant would equal to the minimum percentage, and the bulk would equal to some percentage greater than 50%. Depending on the situation, one could either be higher or lower than the other. Now for a sufficiently strong girl, a small percentage will be sufficient to let her qualify. So this means that not the bulk of votes is required to win in this case. Say, 20% is required to qualify, and 40% is the actual amount received. Neither percentage counts as "the bulk". The bulk of votes is required to win only if the required percentage to qualify exceeds 50%, which is the case for many weaker girls. And even the bulk might not be enough. Say, 80% is required to qualify, and 60% is the actual amount received. Even though it exceeds 50% and thus is the bulk, it's still not significant because it wasn't enough to allow this girl to qualify. So she got the bulk of votes, but the bulk was insignificant. And for a sufficiently weak girl where the percentage required exceeds 100%... let's just say she's never ever going to receive a significant amount of votes. Whether she receives the bulk of votes or not.
Not really, you're thinking far more complex than it is. Lets say supporting votes from voter base is X% and votes from layman voters is Y%. For every girl, you have X+Y%. Now Y% isn't fixed most of the time cos of match line ups. In order to qualify, you need X+Y% to be above a certain threshold. Now since the Y% is not fixed, we need X% to be as high as possible for the hope of the girl qualifying since calculating the bare minimum is impossible like what you say. Hence the bulk is referring to the X%. Your X% can't fluctuate too much cos if it does, chances of your girl not qualifying is very high.

An example would be the MadoMagi girls, their X% have been a consistent high which ends up netting them 200 votes or more and, as you know already, it makes their chance of not qualifying virtually nil.
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Old 2013-08-25, 01:45   Link #651
iamadooddood
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Join Date: May 2013
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Age: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by KanbeKotori View Post
Well, going by a large sample size I'd say there's quite a difference even if it's just 0.05 more.
Not really. And either way their chances of succeeding in getting a girl into the top 16 really low.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KanbeKotori View Post
You forgot they made it tighter every year to combat against foreign voting.
I haven't. However it also appears to be deterring native voters as well. Measures such as that captcha you had problems with. Also read what Coldlight posted.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KanbeKotori View Post
Not really, you're thinking far more complex than it is. Lets say supporting votes from voter base is X% and votes from layman voters is Y%. For every girl, you have X+Y%. Now Y% isn't fixed most of the time cos of match line ups. In order to qualify, you need X+Y% to be above a certain threshold. Now since the Y% is not fixed, we need X% to be as high as possible for the hope of the girl qualifying since calculating the bare minimum is impossible like what you say. Hence the bulk is referring to the X%. Your X% can't fluctuate too much cos if it does, chances of your girl not qualifying is very high.

An example would be the MadoMagi girls, their X% have been a consistent high which ends up netting them 200 votes or more and, as you know already, it makes their chance of not qualifying virtually nil.
Not true, my statement assumed Y = 0 to begin with, which was the worst case scenario. Yeah I forgot to factor in the layman votes. But you're calculating the wrong thing. You're assuming every girl can get in as long as all her supporters vote for her. That only holds if the fanbases for every girl are of the exact same size, which obviously isn't true. What you need is the percentage of voters needed to vote to make X% alone enough to be above a certain threshold, not X% itself.

EDIT: Lies, you're clearly NBS. :P
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Old 2013-08-25, 03:36   Link #652
KanbeKotori
失礼、噛みました
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldlight View Post
I agree, vote totals are appaling - it's even worse than what we remember from two years ago. There is a captcha (using hiragana and katakana) now for code generation. Even so, early on during the prelims, some people here were able to get codes - and I was able to reach a code generation page that told me when to refresh (meaning, I could eventually get one too). So, even though it became more complicated than last time, I'd say we have hope of actually lending support this year. It's a miracle compared to last year's near total ban.
You refreshed? I just open the page again, key the captcha and I'm done after waiting for the code to generate. By the way, from Prelim 1 Round 1 till now I can get a code successfully. Not sure what do you mean the hira/kata captcha.


Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
I haven't. However it also appears to be deterring native voters as well. Measures such as that captcha you had problems with. Also read what Coldlight posted.

Not true. What he said is just a deterrent to other voters like the Chinese etc... You missed out the fact that some native IPs were banned as well this year hence it shrunk. The captcha is perfectly fine now, every J-MMO uses that captcha too so I don't see it as deterring the native voters. The problem I only cannot fathom is why did they block certain native voters. I hope those horribly looking captcha don't come back though. A pain in the ass to deal with them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
Not true, my statement assumed Y = 0 to begin with, which was the worst case scenario. Yeah I forgot to factor in the layman votes. But you're calculating the wrong thing. You're assuming every girl can get in as long as all her supporters vote for her. That only holds if the fanbases for every girl are of the exact same size, which obviously isn't true. What you need is the percentage of voters needed to vote to make X% alone enough to be above a certain threshold, not X% itself.
No, I'm prioritizing those girls with medium to huge voter base as those with small voter base literally have NO CHANCE to qualify so my statement stands. Voter base need not be the same size just that if they have a medium-huge voter base and X% is at >50%, unless Y% = 0, the girl will qualify. The bulk do have to come from the voter base itself hence why I state that X% must be above a certain threshold. Don't forget the total votes will be (X+Y)% and not X% itself.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
EDIT: Lies, you're clearly NBS. :P
I see myself more of ABM than NBS considering my position. You don't see the threat in Mado girls and like them while I do like Saki girls but I'm not over them(with the exception of the beautiful moe Toki of course ).
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Old 2013-08-25, 06:17   Link #653
Wanderer
Goat
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
Quote:
Originally Posted by Coldlight View Post
Speaking of. Glad to see you back! Now there are four of us here in Sayaka's camp within the MadoMagi faction. You, iamadooddood, Triple_R and myself.
I'm not faction affiliated, but I support Sayaka as well. I've grown to like her more and more over the last couple of years.

Now excuse me while I vote for some Saki characters...

---------------------

Picks 1-3, Predictions 4-4

A03
Ringo Sugisaki @ Seitokai No Ichizon: <<杉崎林檎@生徒会の一存 Lv.2>>
Yozora Mikazuki @ Boku Wa Tomodachi Ga Sukunai: <<三日月夜空@僕は友達が少ないNEXT>>
Kukuru Anrakutei @ Joshiraku: <<暗落亭苦来@じょしらく>>

A06
Yuu Matsumi @ Saki: <<松実宥@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
Kurumi Tokisaki @ Date A Live: <<時崎狂三@デート・ア・ライブ>>
Io Nitta @ Devil Survivor 2: <<新田維緒@DEVIL SURVIVOR2 the ANIMATION>>

A09
Kanon Nakagawa @ The World God Only Knows: <<中川かのん@マジカル☆スター かのん100%>>
Nanami Aoyama @ Sakurasou No Pet Na Kanojo: <<青山七海@さくら荘のペットな彼女>>
Yui Yuigahama @ Yahari Ore No Seishun Love Comedy Wa Machigatteiru:<<由比ヶ浜結衣@やはり俺の青春ラブコメはまちがっている。>>

A12
Frenda Seivelun @ A Certain Magical Index: <<フレンダ=セイヴェルン@とある科学の超電磁砲S>>
Leviathan @ Zettai Bouei Leviathan: <<レヴィアタン@絶対防衛レヴィアタン>>
Toki Onjouji @ Saki: <<園城寺怜@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
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Old 2013-08-25, 06:21   Link #654
iamadooddood
NOM.
 
 
Join Date: May 2013
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Age: 31
Quote:
Originally Posted by KanbeKotori View Post
Not true. What he said is just a deterrent to other voters like the Chinese etc... You missed out the fact that some native IPs were banned as well this year hence it shrunk. The captcha is perfectly fine now, every J-MMO uses that captcha too so I don't see it as deterring the native voters. The problem I only cannot fathom is why did they block certain native voters. I hope those horribly looking captcha don't come back though. A pain in the ass to deal with them.
They changed back only because voters complained. The fact that they even used it in the first place shows how much stricter than before they were becoming.

I think the native voters is because they were used as proxy servers by foreign voters so that's why they got blocked: so the foreigners can't use them.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KanbeKotori View Post
No, I'm prioritizing those girls with medium to huge voter base as those with small voter base literally have NO CHANCE to qualify so my statement stands. Voter base need not be the same size just that if they have a medium-huge voter base and X% is at >50%, unless Y% = 0, the girl will qualify. The bulk do have to come from the voter base itself hence why I state that X% must be above a certain threshold. Don't forget the total votes will be (X+Y)% and not X% itself.
You're only prioritising medium voter base girls, which I already said holds for your theory anyway. For huge voter base girls, while X will still need to be above a certain amount, it will be below 50, and if actual X is right in between required and 50, my theory holds. Case in point: MadoMagi girls would still have qualified for main round if their fanbase decided to slack for the main round and all the girls only had half the votes they'd have had. Just that you don't notice it because the fanbase didn't slack that much. For all you know if their fanbase went all out to vote they'd have had more than 400 votes apiece instead of just 200.

Quote:
Originally Posted by KanbeKotori View Post
I see myself more of ABM than NBS considering my position. You don't see the threat in Mado girls and like them while I do like Saki girls but I'm not over them(with the exception of the beautiful moe Toki of course ).
In other words you are NBS. And the only MadoMagi girl I'm supporting is Sayaka.

Of course, Saki's existence overrides everything else because I'm ABS. My current situation is because while I support Date A Live, I'm realistic about who are the favourites to win, and I'd rather MadoMagi win than Saki. For example, I'd support a DAL girl over any of the other 4 MadoMagi girls if such a clash comes to pass, but I know that in this case the MadoMagi girl will end up having the right of way because only they can stand up to Saki's strongest. And knowing this, all ABS fans (including myself) will pour their votes into MadoMagi. As a result of this phenomenon, all those who oppose MadoMagi (but not Saki) for any reason will be automatically shafted into NBS.
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Old 2013-08-25, 09:12   Link #655
ion475
にこにこにー
 
 
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
Result...

Spoiler for Day 3:


Can't say Frenda didn't try for a quick and dirty assassination...too bad she still leaves behind too many bombs

With that, Another 4-0 round brings me to 10-2 overall. And here comes the Group of Death, starting with Lovely My Angel.

B01: Pick/Predict: ラブリーマイエンジェルあやせたん
B04: Pick/Predict: Subara
B07: Pick/Predict: Kuro
B10: Pick/Predict: Kumin-Senpai
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Old 2013-08-25, 09:19   Link #656
Team Rocket Elite
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Yozora with an solid win. Nanami doesn't really get that close to winning in the end. Yuu looks okay. She wasn't in danger of losing but Kurumi did get closer than I thought she would. Toki on the other hand is nearly taken down in Round 1. Anti-champion votes plus what seems to be an overall Saki decline is really hurting Toki. This is the first time ever, Toki has fallen below 50% of the votes. However, Frenda is pretty cool. I'm hoping she's just surprisingly strong and Toki isn't really that much weaker. Maybe the Railgun fanbase will help Toki to bring Frenda back.

Easy matches for Ayase, Kirame and Kuro today? Ayase is probably the one who benefitted most from Oreimo season 2 and she managed to top her preliminary group. None of her opponents really look that strong. We've got more Saki characters today with Kirame and Kuro trying to net some more wins. Once again, Kirame's opponents don't look too good. Kuro's top competition is Marii and Kuro already beat her by quite a bit in the preliminaries. The match between Rei and Kumin is tougher to call. I unfortunatly don't know much about Rei other than her preliminary performance wasn't quite as good as Kumin. For that reason, I'll choose Kumin.

Votes:
Aragaki Ayase
Hanada Kirame
Matsumi Kuro
Tsuyuri Kumin

Predictions:
Aragaki Ayase
Hanada Kirame
Matsumi Kuro
Tsuyuri Kumin
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Old 2013-08-25, 09:49   Link #657
Subayai
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Nice results. I have always liked Yuu so I'm happy. Toki suffered to win, as TRE has already said, considering the anti-champion votes plus the general weakening (compared to last year) that is affecting Saki, this is not unexpected.

Today, we had the highest participation this year with 534 people voting. This is still lower than the average number of voters last year though.

Here is a little table with the number of voters per voting day since the preliminaries until today:
Spoiler for Participation:


I think participation will be a little higher when we get to the hotly contested matches like Madoka vs Yukari (with Ako on the same day but on a different match).
But on average, so far it is at about 400 voters per day. Maybe it will increase a little if people see that MadoMagi and Saki are beatable and we have a fierce competition on the later rounds of the tournament.

Anyway, my hopes for today are Subara (awesome character plus THAT voice) and Kumin-senpai (not the top Chuu2koi but so cute nonetheless).
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Old 2013-08-25, 10:00   Link #658
KanbeKotori
失礼、噛みました
 
 
Join Date: Jul 2013
Quote:
Originally Posted by ion475 View Post
Result...

Spoiler for Day 3:
YES! ALL THAT MATTERS IS TOKI WINNING. A bit sad that Io didn't even hit 50 votes D:

My votes for today!

<<新垣あやせ@俺の妹がこんなに可愛いわけがない。>>
<<花田煌@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
<<松実玄@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
<<五月七日くみん@中二病でも恋がしたい!>>


Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
They changed back only because voters complained. The fact that they even used it in the first place shows how much stricter than before they were becoming.

I think the native voters is because they were used as proxy servers by foreign voters so that's why they got blocked: so the foreigners can't use them.
Probably I guess. But if it is they allowed it in the first place ._.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
You're only prioritising medium voter base girls, which I already said holds for your theory anyway. For huge voter base girls, while X will still need to be above a certain amount, it will be below 50, and if actual X is right in between required and 50, my theory holds. Case in point: MadoMagi girls would still have qualified for main round if their fanbase decided to slack for the main round and all the girls only had half the votes they'd have had. Just that you don't notice it because the fanbase didn't slack that much. For all you know if their fanbase went all out to vote they'd have had more than 400 votes apiece instead of just 200.
Ah I see. Case closed then.

Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
In other words you are NBS. And the only MadoMagi girl I'm supporting is Sayaka.

Of course, Saki's existence overrides everything else because I'm ABS. My current situation is because while I support Date A Live, I'm realistic about who are the favourites to win, and I'd rather MadoMagi win than Saki. For example, I'd support a DAL girl over any of the other 4 MadoMagi girls if such a clash comes to pass, but I know that in this case the MadoMagi girl will end up having the right of way because only they can stand up to Saki's strongest. And knowing this, all ABS fans (including myself) will pour their votes into MadoMagi. As a result of this phenomenon, all those who oppose MadoMagi (but not Saki) for any reason will be automatically shafted into NBS.

I can also say you're NBM too >.> No much difference. If I'm NBS you're NBM. Simple.
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Old 2013-08-25, 10:47   Link #659
Ichuki
┌(^o^)┘モリ!┌(^o^)┘モリ!
 
 
Join Date: Sep 2010
Toki's performance makes feel there's a decent chance she'll be sniped later on. 4/4 on the predictions again


Prediction- Ayase..... , Subara, Kuro, Kumin
Pick- Akane, つまんねー事聞くなよ!, Akane, Rei
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Old 2013-08-25, 11:10   Link #660
Zeroryoko1974
Senior Member
 
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
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What is the streak up to now on Madoka characters since Mami won?
B01
Akane Akaza @ Yuru Yuri: <<赤座あかね@ゆるゆり♪♪>>
Nene @ Nobuna Oda's Ambition: <<ねね@織田信奈の野望>>
Chiho Aikawa @ Yuyushiki: <<相川千穂@ゆゆ式>>
Ayase Aragaki @ Ore No Imouto Ga Konna Ni Kawaii Wake Ga Nai: <<新垣あやせ@俺の妹がこんなに可愛いわけがない。>>

B04
Nobuna Oda @ Nobuna Oda's Ambition: <<織田信奈@織田信奈の野望>>
Akane Isshiki @ Vividred Operation: <<一色あかね@ビビッドレッド・オペレーション>>
Kirame Hanada @ Saki: <<花田煌@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>

B07
Marii Buratei @ Joshiraku: <<蕪羅亭魔梨威@じょしらく>>

Izumi Nijou @ Saki: <<二条泉@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>
Kuro Matsumi @ Saki: <<松実玄@咲-Saki- 阿知賀編 episode of side-A>>

B10
Rei Kuroki @ Vividred Operation: <<黒騎れい@ビビッドレッド・オペレーション>>
Kumin Tsuyuri @ Chuunibyou Demo Koi Ga Shitai!: <<五月七日くみん@中二病でも恋がしたい!>>
Mayuri Shiina @ Steins;Gate: <<椎名まゆり@劇場版 STEINS;GATE 負荷領域のデジャヴ>> Tuturu Mayuri desu
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