[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni Chiru - Ep. 5 End of the golden witch

[Pika_power]

Ah. Good point. For some reason, I have the notion that the servants cannot be anything more than accomplices, while the ringleader is a sibling. It could very well be the other way around though.

[moldy_tomato]

I have been thinking that the main culprit is a servant who knows the siblings darkest secrets, which makes blackmailing possible. (cf. Natsuhi in Ep5)

[Witch of Uncertainty]

I am still somewhat stuck, believing that Shannon is the true culprit.
I am currently rereading episode 1, and, though this is a small, maybe insignificant detail, she is by far the servent who is treated the worst. Natsuhi also confirms in episode 5 that "I never told anyone except Shannon that I like Fall.". Of course, Shannon can have passed the information on the the true culprit, but in Episode 4, Beatrice claims that:
"Ushiromiya Battler has a sin"
"Because of your sin, people die."
"Due to your sin, a great many humans on this island die."
"No one escapes, all die."
In episode 2 and especially 3, she (Shann) shows sthat she not mind dying, as long as she's experienced "love".
Also, in episode 2, we found out that Battler had told Shannon that he would come back for her on a white horse. He didn't show up for 6 years, which probably hurt her a lot.

Sorry, this might be a bit off topic. My point is that I think it's possible for at least one of the Servants to at least have a motive to be a culprit.
If the culprit was initially after the really after the inheritance or something like that, I doubt they would have cared about whatever sin Battler comitted?

[Thunder Book]

People still haven't seen past how Natsuhi was tricked in that scene about the card?

I mean, it seems obvious that there were already four cards placed in the room, and the culprit just told Natsuhi which one to go to.

[Jan-Poo]

Some people believe that Beatrice is not the real culprit.

Shannontrice is a pretty solid theory at the moment, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Shannon is the culprit, because it's not necessary for Beatrice to be the culprit.

People still haven't seen past how Natsuhi was tricked in that scene about the card?

It's been seen, but it doesn't change the fact that the "man from 19 years before" knew that Natsuhi didn't tell to (almost) anyone what was her favorite season. If it was something that everyone knew it wouldn't have had such a great effect. And I can't really think it was a mere coincidence.
To know such a thing this "man" should know Natsuhi pretty well.

[Leafsnail]

Not to mention they'd need access to her room to put the cards in...

[Renall]

And frequent access, to know which parts of her room were generally not inspected. Odds are Natsuhi doesn't clean her own things, so she probably never picks up the clock to dust, but there would have to be someone who knew her room well enough to be sure she didn't accidentally find the cards ahead of time.

But was Natsuhi tricked? In ep2, her room is found in disarray. You could argue George, Gohda, and Shannon were rummaging around, but what if Natsuhi always got that call and always tore up her room looking for the other cards? Or perhaps George or Shannon was tearing up her room looking for them? Why would anyone do that? If not, what else were they looking for? Why would they want the mirror?

[Oliver]

Originally Posted by Renall

If not, what else were they looking for? Why would they want the mirror?

I'm still betting it's not the mirror they want but the diaries.

[Pika_power]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Some people believe that Beatrice is not the real culprit.

Shannontrice is a pretty solid theory at the moment, but that doesn't necessarily mean that Shannon is the culprit, because it's not necessary for Beatrice to be the culprit.

This is almost required. Beatrice cannot be the killer of everyone. It's been stated in the red.

Ah!

Beato isn't the killer. She was the killer for the first two episodes, which matches up with the Skanontrice theory. Kanon for EP1. Shannon for EP2. Then they kill people in EP3. But due to an accident, they end up dead as well. In the mystery world, this is represented by them being killed accidentally in the closed circle ring. In the fantasy, the Epitaph is solved. Then it's the new witch, Eva/EVA-Beatrice, who continues the killings. In EP4, it's the person everyone recognises as Kinzo. In EP5, it's someone POSING as the Golden witch, as shown by the Sisters' disgust at the circle.

[Thunder Book]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

It's been seen, but it doesn't change the fact that the "man from 19 years before" knew that Natsuhi didn't tell to (almost) anyone what was her favorite season. If it was something that everyone knew it wouldn't have had such a great effect. And I can't really think it was a mere coincidence.
To know such a thing this "man" should know Natsuhi pretty well.

Obviously.

I'm just saying it makes no sense for "The Man From 19 Years Ago" to be conspiring with Shannon.

[Jan-Poo]

of course not!

The man from 19 years before IS Shannon.

[Thunder Book]

Oh snap.

Plot twist.

Shannon was the trap.

[Witch of Uncertainty]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

of course not!

The man from 19 years before IS Shannon.

Did anyone but Natsuhi actually know of her sin against this child, though? I don't remember much from ep 5, but she never told anyone of it, right? She even "forgot" it herself, until he reminded her of it..
I guess a theory could be that Kanon was the child Natsuhi tried to murder, and by coincidence (or not..?) came back as a servant 8 years later, dressed as a girl (Shannon). 7 years later, "She" developed a second consciousness. Namely Kanon.
That may be a bit far fetched, and it doesn't explain why Shannon would develop schitzofrenia(sp?) 7 years later.

I guess another theory would be that Kumasawa, or possible Genji witnessed the murder, and told someone of it (Most likely Kumasawa, since she is known for her gossip). This someone, could be Eva (whom we all know holds a grudge against Natsuhi), who convinces Goerge to pretent that he is her son.

EDIT: Kumasawa could of course have told Shannon the story too.

[Thunder Book]

No, joking aside, that first theory still has a massive a hole in it.

Let's examine a timeline for a moment.

-Natsuhi tells Shkanon her favorite season is Fall.
-Shkanon decides to scare the **** out of Natsuhi as "The Man of 19 Years Ago".
-Shkanon develops a plan involving hiding a card with the word "Fall" written on it.
-Shkanon goes "Lol I know your favorite season Mama. It's Fall. I'm a evil genius~!<3"
-Natsuhi finds the fall card, and is freaked out.
-Natsuhi remembers that she told Shannon and Shannon alone her favorite season was fall.
-Later, Natsuhi COULD bully Shkanon a lot until she finds out who she leaked the info to or why she is trying to make Natsuhi confess.

My point is that using Shannon as an accomplice or Kshanon as "The Man From 19 Years Ago" makes no sense because it leaves an incredibly obvious paper trail to follow back to "TMF19YA".

You'd have to be really incompetent to go through with this plan with Shannon as an accomplice.

I personally still think that four cards were placed in the room, and "TMF19YA" was simply trying to have Natsuhi blame someone else and get her off of his trail. He was creating a red herring.

[Leafsnail]

On the other hand, noone would believe her, and everyone would think she's the culprit.

And quite possibly dead by the end of the evening too.

[Thunder Book]

Exactly. It's a trap, possibly directed at Shannon herself.

[Witch of Uncertainty]

Originally Posted by Thunder Book

My point is that using Shannon as an accomplice or Kshanon as "The Man From 19 Years Ago" makes no sense because it leaves an incredibly obvious paper trail to follow back to "TMF19YA".

Still. Telling people what Natsuhi's favorite season is, isn't something people normally do. Even fewer people actually care about it, too.
Whoever the person was, he or she must know of what Natsuhi did. The only possibilities I know of, is Shkannon, Kumasawa or Genji. Genji is the least likely to actually tell anyone about anything.
I agree that it would be "Third-Rate" if Shannon was the culprit, but then again, by being the most suspicious person, people will suspect you less, if that made any sense.. And I don't mean the pieces. I mean the players. I doubt anyone in the Meta-world actually thought that Natsuhi was the culprit. At least Battler didn't seem to buy it for a second.

Originally Posted by Thunder Book

I personally still think that four cards were placed in the room, and "TMF19YA" was simply trying to have Natsuhi blame someone else and get her off of his trail. He was creating a red herring.

I have forgotten this part. Does the "son" give her the direction to the card, after she tells him it's fall?
If that's the case, this puzzle wasn't really complicated at all, lol.

[Jan-Poo]

Yes Natsuhi tells "him" that it's fall, only then the "man" tells her to check under the clock.

However this "man" seems to know it wasn't summer already.

I personally still think that four cards were placed in the room, and "TMF19YA" was simply trying to have Natsuhi blame someone else and get her off of his trail. He was creating a red herring.

This can only work if that man knew Shannon was the only person who was ever told Natsuhi's favored season. Else it wouldn't work at all as a red herring, Natsuhi wouldn't have anyone to blame in a particular.

But how this man came to know such a "secret" then? Only Shannon could have told him. At this point she might have told him the kind of season it was.

[Thunder Book]

The Man could have heard, say, Jessica say that her mother doesn't like Summer in regular conversation. Do we know if Natsuhi told people what season she disliked the most?

Also the plan could work as a red herring if the Man simply assumed Natsuhi would start blaming people. Seems like more of a gamble though.

[Kylon99]

Technically speaking we already have another person strangely interested in Natsuhi; or rather Natushi's room.

George in EP2, where they decided to raid her room for her mirror to fight 'Beatrice.' What were they REALLY doing there to begin with? Is the mirror or the room connected to TMF19YA? Does George secretly have the hots for Natsuhi's undergarments?

:3