2016-09-27, 01:59 | Link #581 | |
Banned
Join Date: Aug 2013
Location: Holy Terra
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Well guys, it seems that victor of these elections is already been decided.
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2016-09-27, 02:15 | Link #582 |
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 34
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Cute. Except:
1) Professor Lichtman absolutely hates Trump's guts, and openly admits his being a piece of shit could mean his model doesn't work any more. He is quoted explicitly, here. 2) His model is not a valid statistical model. He is working from a small sample size from every angle, with subjective judgments on each "true/false" hit at best. 3) He is a historian, not a statistician. Historians -- and let me say this as a formal student of History -- do not make absolute predictions. Ever. We make hypotheses, theories, and capture our predictions with likely, maybe, the nuances are XYZ, and so on. Professor Lichtman was very clever in couching his language in very narrow, hedged terms. 4) He's selling a book. Spin some more. |
2016-09-27, 02:20 | Link #583 | |
"Senior" "Member"
Join Date: Jan 2012
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2016-09-27, 02:23 | Link #584 | |
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 34
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And if you actually watched the debate live, I'm sure you absolutely didn't miss the audience laughing unprompted at Mr. Trump's remarkable rant about his superior temperament, did you? |
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2016-09-27, 02:24 | Link #585 |
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Australia
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I think (IMO) Frank Luntz has the fairest indicator of Trump and Hillary performance on tonight debate, and you can see how each section fair with each candidate own base, opponent base and independence.
Summary (points scored out of 100 based on favourability):
Overall, answers for both birther and tax return were big problems for Trump when it comes to undecided (<40). Hillary earned real high on undecided for her answer on racial issues (70), but Trump wasn't so bad either (55). Trump however win on trade and economy (65 to Hillary's 45). If Trump follow this however, he may bring the email issue up a lots in next debate, as it score very high amongst undecided and Republican (60-75) despite he barely mentioned it
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Last edited by risingstar3110; 2016-09-27 at 02:43. |
2016-09-27, 02:42 | Link #586 | ||
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Join Date: Jan 2012
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And since when has the media who said things like "Trump will not run... Trump will drop out... Trump's ceiling is 30%... 35%... 40%... 45%... 50%!!! For real this time!" suddenly regained their credibility? They have been incompetent for the whole election cycle. I still remember how the pundits were assured that the "lines between the states" debate would hurt Trump, or that Trump has pretty much lost the nomination after losing the Wisconsin primary... or how the election was already wrapped up just a few weeks ago... Again and again Trump defied those opinions of the "experts". Instead a certain cartoonist who predicted a Trump landslide has been more accurate until now than anyone else. Quote:
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2016-09-27, 02:43 | Link #587 | |||||
Part-time misanthrope
Join Date: Mar 2007
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2016-09-27, 02:49 | Link #589 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Australia
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But is understandable as her poll number certainly does not go well recently, so she has to hit with everything she got asap. Otherwise the 2nd debate would have been too late. The debate result is fairly close through, and I think each campaign response on the debate could have as much impact on the poll as the debate itself
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Last edited by risingstar3110; 2016-09-27 at 03:00. |
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2016-09-27, 02:53 | Link #590 | |
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Location: Australia
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Think "Capitalism the love story" touched on it, but the only one who bought in lots of property during the crash and prevented it from total collapse were properties vultures (the type Trump intended to do and could profit from). Just as their name. They were buying foreclosure properties from banks and maintain their values for reselling later. Otherwise the price would have dropped to even worse, and would lead to even higher mortgage truancy. That's how the system works unfortunately ...
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Last edited by risingstar3110; 2016-09-27 at 03:33. |
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2016-09-27, 03:02 | Link #591 | |||
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you get it? You have to explain why you assume he implied the use of weapons instead of simply their powerful lobby. Saying something like "it's obvious, I don't need to explain it" doesn't cut it here. Quote:
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The cognitive dissonance is different this time. Not unexpected though. I'd be more surprised if you had an actual argument to defend the pundits.
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2016-09-27, 03:41 | Link #592 | |
Logician and Romantic
Join Date: Nov 2004
Location: Within my mind
Age: 43
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2016-09-27, 03:52 | Link #593 | |
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Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Australia
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In short it won't be smart to present intelligent point in a debate. Yeah, I know the irony and how fucked-up it is Make sense through. Because otherwise the senate and White House would have filled with professors from various fields, who actually know the shit that they spouted. For example, Hillary and Trump answer for racial problems in America probably would receive D- if it was used in a social science class. And I am being generous
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2016-09-27, 03:57 | Link #594 | ||
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 34
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Oh, fine. I'll play with you tonight. I've decided that I have some time to actually care and rescue this shithole of a thread for a bit. I have no expectations that I can convince you of anything, but I would be very displeased to see your lies and insinuations unchallenged. See, I really want my country back from the fact-less people, the racists, the liars.
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Also, I must applaud you again for the amazing spin. You very much said here that there's literally no way to define what is an intelligent answer is in a debate, promptly allowing absolute free-standing opinions without justifications. Remarkable. Having said so, allow me to demonstrate for the audience's curiosity by comparing two answers on the same subject as provided by Secretary Clinton and Mr. Trump tonight; to wit, on the last and by far the easiest of all questions: HOLT: One of you will not win this election, so many [should be "my" -- transcript mistake] final question to you tonight: are you willing to accept the outcome as the will of the voters? CLINTON: Well, I support our democracy. And sometimes you win. Sometimes you lose. But I certainly will support the outcome of this election. And I know Donald's trying very hard to plant doubts about it, but I hope the people out there understand: This election’s really up to you. It's not about us so much as it is about you and your families and the kind of country and future you want. So I sure hope you will get out and vote as though your future depended on it because it does. As you can see, Secretary Clinton had the sense to offer a standard answer about how democracy is important, accepting the outcome, please vote, it's important, etc. Nothing wrong, and nothing spectacular. HOLT: Mr. Trump, very quickly, same question: Will you accept the outcome as the will of the voters? TRUMP: I want to make America great again. We are a nation that is seriously troubled. We’re losing our jobs, people are pouring into our country. The other day we were deporting 800 people. And perhaps they pressed the wrong button, they press the wrong button, or perhaps worse than that, it was corruption. But These people that we were going to deport for good reason ended up becoming citizens. Ended up becoming citizens, and it was 800, and now it turns out, it might be 1800, and they don't even know. HOLT: Will you accept the outcome of the election? TRUMP: I want to make America great again. I’m going to be able to do it, I don’t think Hillary will. The answer is, If she wins, I will absolutely support her. Note how Mr. Holt had to ask Mr. Trump twice to get the same affirmation? Rather than answering the question upfront, he first stated his slogan, attempted to continue his talking point about evil immigrants and jobs, deportation, and so on. Mr Holt pressed him -- asking for a basic answer of democratic affirmation Mr. Trump apparently has no care to give -- and he restates the slogan again, stubbornly, before being forced to concede an answer in conventional terms. The disgusting mainstream media conventional wisdom that democratic power transitions should be legitimate and peaceful. Sadly that was arguably one of the least representative answers, though it is the shortest. He was rambling far more throughout. Should I post the entire numbing section of Mr. Trump's angry rant about the Iraq War, namely that he did not support it [hint: he did, provably, caught on tape], and then concluded that angry rant with an attempt to claim that he had the superior temperament? It may be the first time, and certainly one of the very few times if it is not the case, that a presidential candidate in a formal debate stage drew uncontrolled laughter against themselves unprompted by their opponent (and against decorum). Here is a full transcript of the debate. Quote:
He has since admitted to the mistake, as befits a human being with more capacity for self-reflection than Mr. Trump. Clearly he underestimated the racism, hatred, and ignorance of segments of the American voting public. From what exactly, hmm? Last edited by Irenicus; 2016-09-27 at 04:12. |
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2016-09-27, 04:00 | Link #595 |
My posts are frivolous
Join Date: Nov 2008
Age: 35
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My whole office (2 liberals and 2 conservatives) was streaming the debate today while we worked
Our opinions are somewhat split: Me: Trump won the argument, Hillary won the debate (i.e: I agree more with Trump's arguments than Hillary's, but I think Hillary probably gained more votes); Conservative 2: Trump won the argument, third party candidates won the debate; Liberal 1: Hillary won the argument, Hillary won the debate; and Liberal 2: Tied on argument, tied on debate. It's telling that none of us felt that Trump won the debate, not even the 2 conservatives.
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2016-09-27, 04:07 | Link #596 | |
RUN, YOU FOOLS!
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Formerly Iwakawa base and Chaldea. Now Teyvat, the Astral Express & the Outpost
Age: 44
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Clinton was the Sarkozy of this debate. |
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2016-09-27, 04:22 | Link #597 |
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 34
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I appreciate the insight. I heard/seen some news of the Sarkozy-Royale presidential election a long time ago, but did not know about the debate and its impact. Out of curiosity, is a presidential debate traditionally an important element of France's presidential elections? What are the cultural nuances and/or media importance of the event, compared to American presidential debates?
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2016-09-27, 04:23 | Link #598 | |||
Part-time misanthrope
Join Date: Mar 2007
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2016-09-27, 04:34 | Link #599 | |
RUN, YOU FOOLS!
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Formerly Iwakawa base and Chaldea. Now Teyvat, the Astral Express & the Outpost
Age: 44
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2016-09-27, 04:39 | Link #600 | |
Le fou, c'est moi
Join Date: Dec 2007
Location: Las Vegas, NV, USA
Age: 34
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Anyway. Sidetrack. |
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