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Old 2020-10-31, 10:52   Link #1041
kari-no-sugata II
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Biden up to 90% chance of winning in 538's forecast.

Still means a 1 in 10 chance of a disaster though...
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Old 2020-10-31, 10:57   Link #1042
Sheba
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I know polls can reassure people, but please remember 2016.
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Old 2020-10-31, 11:45   Link #1043
kari-no-sugata II
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheba View Post
I know polls can reassure people, but please remember 2016.
Sure but please also remember every other election too. 2016 hasn't erased all of history.

In 2016 there was a late swing, the national polls were reasonably accurate, the problem was the state polls and the fact that there were a lot of undecided voters that broke for Trump. This time, there's much more state polling, there doesn't look to be a late swing, there's far fewer undecided voters and they're less likely to break for Trump. The 2018 polls were quite accurate. And errors in polling are just as likely to be in one direction as the other.

Putting it another way, even if the state polls are off by as much as they were in 2016 and in the same direction, that still wouldn't be enough. It'll take more than a repeat of 2016 for Trump to win based on the current polls. Still a 1 in 10 chance though.
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Old 2020-10-31, 12:07   Link #1044
Anh_Minh
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1. There are still enough undecided to sway the election either way.
2. Let's say the polls are accurate. It just means Biden's got a 90% chance in a fair election.
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Old 2020-10-31, 12:17   Link #1045
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GOP and Cheetos' actions to sabotage the election means its anything but fair.
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Old 2020-10-31, 12:58   Link #1046
kari-no-sugata II
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anh_Minh View Post
1. There are still enough undecided to sway the election either way.
Going by 538's numbers, Biden is 50.1% in Pennsylvania with undecideds included, so can't lose by 100% of undecideds going to Trump. He's 49.7% in Nevada, but Trump is 43.9% and giving him all undecideds only takes him to 48.7%. Biden in Wisconsin is 51.9% without allocating undecideds, 51.2% in Minnesota, 51.4% in Michigan, etc.

So no, even if 100% of undecideds were allocated to Trump, if the polls are correct then Biden still wins.

But yeah, the efforts to suppress voting and vote counting or even just delay it is quite disgusting to see.

From what I understand of how quickly the votes are going to be counted and announced, if the state polls are roughly accurate (or if there's an error in Biden's favour) then states like Florida might be one of the first "swing states" to be declared for Biden. Would be rather ironic...
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Old 2020-10-31, 13:10   Link #1047
cyberdemon
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheba View Post
One problem is Cheetos deliberately sabotaging the vote by mail system
Hes banking on the SC shutting down vote counting on election night or before they can all be counted. Meanwhile his people vote on Election Day. Early numbers will favor him in states where the mail in votes cant be counted before election day
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Old 2020-10-31, 15:46   Link #1048
SeijiSensei
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Today's most blatant efforts at voter suppression:

1. Sheriff's deputies pepper-sprayed a peaceful march of about 200 people going to vote at a polling place in North Carolina. Notice the skin colors of the police and the marchers in the video.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/lo...246861942.html

The Republican sheriff has a rather racially-biased record as does the county he serves.

2. The Texas Republican Party filed a suit today that would disqualify 100,000 votes in predominantly Democratic Harris County (Houston) because they were cast by voters in their cars. These voters used the identical equipment as voters inside polling places.

https://twitter.com/mjs_DC/status/1322602843661021184

Don't know if it would be constitutional under the Elections Clause, but Congress needs to pass a law that sets a minimum period before a Federal election during which electoral laws and practices may not be altered. It's absurd that the Texas GOP can waltz into court a few days before a Presidential election and press for a proceeding that could disenfranchise that many voters. The Republican judge scheduled a hearing for Monday.

I've never seen a party engage in such blatant efforts to suppress voting in all my lifetime. Looks like Governor Abbott's efforts in Texas just generated a backlash of citizen participation. Almost a million more people have voted early in Texas this year than voted in total in 2016. Texas has historically had low turnouts, but that may be coming to an end after 2018 and 2020.


Last edited by SeijiSensei; 2020-10-31 at 16:17.
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Old 2020-10-31, 16:05   Link #1049
mangamuscle
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@SeijiSensei That is bound to happen when a federal election is run by state governments, if need be the USA should make a constitutional amendment or this problems will never go away.
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Old 2020-10-31, 16:24   Link #1050
SeijiSensei
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Congress actually has considerable powers to regulate Federal elections under the so-called "Elections Clause" of the Constitution. I found this report from the Government Accounting Office quite enlightening. Pretty much all the voting rights legislation falls under this power, as do laws like the "motor voter" act which requires states to offer the ability to register to vote when applying for or renewing a driver's license. Election-day and automatic registration could be part of a future voting rights bill in the next session.
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Old 2020-10-31, 16:41   Link #1051
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheba View Post
I know polls can reassure people, but please remember 2016.
Don't worry, Biden is up 17 points in Wisconsin after all. That is why Obama had to stump for him there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SeijiSensei View Post
Today's most blatant efforts at voter suppression:

1. Sheriff's deputies pepper-sprayed a peaceful march of about 200 people going to vote at a polling place in North Carolina. Notice the skin colors of the police and the marchers in the video.
This one seemed pretty serious so I looked it up and to my shock it was neither a peaceful march or children being pepper sprayed.

https://twitter.com/erica4advocacy/s...23851180650496
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Old 2020-10-31, 16:49   Link #1052
Ithekro
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2016 was its own mess. Remember that there were several Electors that voted for third party or random people instead of either Clinton or Trump. Most were suppose to vote Clinton, but it wasn't even close at that point to make a difference.
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Old 2020-10-31, 17:03   Link #1053
ramlaen
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Ithekro View Post
2016 was its own mess. Remember that there were several Electors that voted for third party or random people instead of either Clinton or Trump. Most were suppose to vote Clinton, but it wasn't even close at that point to make a difference.
That was a truly unexpected result given there was a campaign to get Trump's electors to switch their vote, just one of those things that has been memory holed.

https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-brief...vote-for-trump
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Old 2020-10-31, 17:12   Link #1054
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https://www.yahoo.com/news/rupert-mu...201631116.html

Interesting summation of Trumps chances
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Old 2020-10-31, 17:40   Link #1055
Guardian Enzo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Anh_Minh View Post
1. There are still enough undecided to sway the election either way.
2. Let's say the polls are accurate. It just means Biden's got a 90% chance in a fair election.
1. - No there aren't, if the polls have even a 2016-sized error. The problem, as noted repeatedly, is the massive voter suppression campaign being engaged in by the GOP. In anything remotely resembling a fair election they would have no chance whatsoever. The 10% mostly comes from the fact that this isn't.
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Old 2020-11-01, 09:57   Link #1056
SeijiSensei
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Today's national polling averages at 538 have Biden 52%, Trump 43%, leaving just five percent undecided or voting for third parties. Usually undecideds at this point tend not to go to the polls, but let's be generous and say that three of those five percent do vote. Even if Trump got all of them he can't catch Biden. A more likely outcome is that they split that three percent fairly evenly.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...eral/national/

Also, even if the polls are as wrong this year as they were in 2016, Trump still won't win most swing states.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2020/pr...ls-trump-biden

I still see Biden winning over 300 Electoral Votes. An eight-point victory in the two-party popular vote, 54-46, usually generates a 63 percent margin for the winner in the Electoral College, or 334 Electoral Votes.



I expect Tuesday's election to produce a result fairly similar to 2008 and 2012.
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Old 2020-11-01, 09:59   Link #1057
Roger Rambo
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sheba View Post
I know polls can reassure people, but please remember 2016.
538 had some commentary about that.

More or less, the polling margin of error has to be substantially greater than in 2016 for a repeat of that upset. And that margin of error has to very specifically favor Trump again.
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Old 2020-11-01, 10:17   Link #1058
kari-no-sugata II
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One way to think of 538's current odds: if every election had these odds then you'd get an "upset" once every 10 elections, or every 40 years. Something you'd see once or twice a lifetime.

Looks like the polls aren't going to change much at all by election day so it's going to come down to actual turnout on election day, what the undecideds do, polling accuracy and whether there's actually a fair count.
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Old 2020-11-01, 10:22   Link #1059
SeijiSensei
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ramlaen View Post
This one seemed pretty serious so I looked it up and to my shock it was neither a peaceful march or children being pepper sprayed.
David Frum was a speechwriter for GW Bush and is now a never-Trumper. He's hardly a radical. Here he recounts his conversations with his kids who were there.

https://twitter.com/davidfrum/status...36126419587073

"@natfrum and @beatrice_frum observed local police deliberately targeting children for tear-gassing, including one as young as maybe five. They also observed police snipers aiming at the wholly peaceful crowd. All on video."

https://twitter.com/natfrum/status/1322644016945635332

@natfrum and @beatrice_frum were at this event, recorded the whole thing on video - and were both tear-gassed for being there, @natfrum repeatedly. (He was tear-gassed the first time when he tried to retrieve an elderly woman's wheel chair for her after police tear-gassed her.)

And, finally, here's the mother of the kids who were pepper-sprayed:

"Melanie Mitchell said her 5-year-old and 11-year-old daughters were pepper-sprayed just after the moment of silence.

"She said Graham police approached the crowd assembled in the street and told them to move onto the sidewalk and soon began spraying pepper spray toward the ground. Mitchell’s 5-year-old took off running, she said. Both kids threw up.

“'My 11-year-old was terrified,' Mitchell said. 'She doesn’t want to come down to Graham anymore.'"

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/lo...246861942.html

Quote:
Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II View Post
Looks like the polls aren't going to change much at all by election day so it's going to come down to actual turnout on election day, what the undecideds do, polling accuracy and whether there's actually a fair count.
Turnout is on a pace to reach a value not seen since 1908. My friend and voting scholar Charles Stewart suggested a total turnout of 155-160 million is in reach. 155 million would be about 65% of the estimated 2020 electorate.

https://twitter.com/cstewartiii/stat...00628281135104
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Old 2020-11-01, 13:17   Link #1060
cyberdemon
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I expect Trump is going to take a quick lead on Election Day and use that as an excuse to Try to have the sc shut down the election in his favor. This quick lead is only because many states cant even count mail in ballots until polling ends on election night. Only like 13 states have allowed counting for a week before the election
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