2012-01-12, 02:25 | Link #26981 | |||||||||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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It's unlikely, but not hard to imagine that there was a typhoon on Rokkenjima on Oct 4th and 5th, 1986. It's also unusual that someone might write a mystery story about a future Oct 4th that included a typhoon. What is truly fishy is that we apparently get both. Quote:
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Of course you could suppose that the fictions' weather patterns did not match up with Umineko-Prime's weather patterns. We have a clear example of something like this with Eva's death in most of the fictions while she seems to have survived in what seems to be Umineko-Prime. But unlike the situation with Eva there is nothing that tells us, or even suggests, that the fictions are in any way discrepant with Umineko-Prime when it comes to the weather. Quote:
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I tend to think there's some truth to both versions of Kinzo, and that he was a more complicated person than either depiction presents him as. Quote:
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Spoiler for And then there were none:
That's why I don't usually focus on Ange's absence when I argue that the bottle-stories were written after the incident, because Ange's absence can be contrived by people in all sorts of ways. The weather, though? You can't fake a "coincidence" like that. The typhoon was either a true coincidence or was written/edited in after the writer got a reliable weather report for Oct. 4 1986. I've done some research: Reliable typhoon prediction was only about 3 days in advance with 1986 technology. It does leave a small window of time (from Oct. 1-4) for the writer to weave her stories before the incident, but that's it. Quote:
As far as I know it's not clear how much time passed between October 6th 1986 and when Touya encountered Ikuko on the street, nor is it clear how he got there, nor is it clear why a wealthy hermit-woman with no social life and no need to ever leave her house would be driving in a rain storm. Touya at first suspected that Ikuko was the person who hit him with the car, and according to the ???? he apparently suspected it for quite a while before being convinced that she didn't... So did Ikuko reeeeeally just innocently find Touya unconscious in the middle of the road? Everything about their encounter is fishy and weird. |
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2012-01-12, 04:01 | Link #26982 | |||
The True Culprit
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2012-01-12, 04:11 | Link #26983 |
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Location: St. Louis
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So, just discover the major spoilers for the final episode of Umineko Chiru VN.
First off, I kinda hate it but at the same time, did leave me a bit sad because of the various bittersweet endings and plus, it's the end of an amazing saga. And the fact I just now discover the ending two years later.
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2012-01-12, 06:46 | Link #26984 | |
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Location: Yesterday!
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In both case, it's the idea that "it most definitively could've failed" but if it did "it wouldn't have make a story". The number of "miraculous coincidences that works in the author's favor" in a story where a given culprit does a serial murder in a closed off island without ever being caught (and in such a cryptic way too) is already way too high to debate it further. To do it IMO is forgetting that Umineko is a fiction, and one where such miracle coincidences are raining everywhere. 10 tons of gold from nowhere, Kinzo's incredible luck with money from that point on, hiding a mansion and 10 tons of gold for 30 years without anyone ever finding out, much/most about Rokkenjima altogether, that "Beatrice 2's daughter/son" ended up being the one who solved the epitaph, that Kinzo died the very moment after, that Kinzo's death was actually successfully concealed for nearly 2 years, mostly everything about ShKanon never being found out, obviously every murder succeeding, that any message bottles was ever found, that Kinzo/Beatrice 1 got away with hiding everything on an island where like 40 people died, that Battler miraculously survived nearly drowning + being seemingly hit by a car + somehow a 900 tons bomb (tho became Toyah, whatever), that Yasu survived falling a cliff, that Genji and cie managed to somehow convince Kinzo/Natsuhi/Krauss to have a 6 years old maid without revealing Yasu's identity, that Yasu never decided to just leave the island before Kinzo could unveil his epitaph in the first place, that Yasu developped a Beatrice obsession while being unaware that she was Beatrice's daughter, and ultimately that both Battler and Beatrice managed to "remember/figure it out" leading to a sort of happy ending (for their meta selves at least). There are probably many many more but I can't think of them at the moment. All things that works amazingly well to the author's convenience. So at that point really, what's the storm and Ange being absent fitting what Ryuukishi wanted? That everything is so similar to a fiction is actually a huge reason why I do not think of Ange's future as "prime" but rather as "a fiction equal to Lion's". Remember that Ange was originally introduced as from "a possible future" and tho the odds weren't claimed to be as low as with Lion by Bernkastel, they were sorta low. How would "a storm really happened and Ange really wasn't there, however contrary to the stories, Eva survived" goes as evidence that things weren't planned as much as they just happened that way, by coincidence, making them a relatively low odd. I mean, it's by no way certain, but they mentioned such storms was common for family reunions + that Ange was often sick around that period of the year. I don't think the odds that it happened are actually as low as Battler/Toyah's fate, for instance. Edit: Uh this actually barely changes anything but over rechecking arc 1's script I realized that Battler introduces George as "turning 23 this year". Unless it's confirmed elsewhere he's 23, it looks like he's 22... making his six years younger self 16 and not 17 (doesn't change much but even a year is giving him some redemption). Last edited by UsagiTenpura; 2012-01-12 at 07:11. |
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2012-01-12, 07:28 | Link #26985 |
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If Yasu bribed the boatman (she took out the phone and radio anyway), a closed circle could have been created even without a storm. So she doesn't need to predict it by much, only revise the stories a bit upon finding out that a storm is coming.
Or alternatively, she wasn't going to do anything without a storm. Just like nothing would have happened if Battler decided to stay home.
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2012-01-12, 08:57 | Link #26986 | ||||||||
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I thought this was just Ryukishi's way of making it clear that she's Featherine (or rather, one half of Featherine). Quote:
And Ikuko's life up until that point doesn't seem to have been the kind of huge thing you're talking about. She seemed to have just been writing mystery stories, and it wasn't anything she ever got recognition for. It also didn't seem like she'd written hundreds of them or anything. I think it was more like a hobby. She stayed in her house and didn't really ever go out. Which is another thing. If she's on house arrest, why was she allowed to go out driving whenever she pleases and bring back a guy she found on the street and use the money she was getting from her family (who was supposed to be thoroughly ashamed of her) to take care of him secretly? Those things she said about herself back then don't really add up in the first place. But we never saw anything of the Hachijo family. I think it's apparent that she's the one that's actually in charge over there. There's not even any implication that the Hachijos exist other than the things Ikuko was saying. The publishers? The mention of publishers implies that Ikuko has published stories and received fame for it. None of that has happened yet. This Ikuko only mentioned that she sent in one story at one point, and it got rejected. After that, she lost heart and didn't send another in until Tohya and her wrote a story together and he persuaded her to publish it. How many stories has this Ikuko written? There's not really any implication that it's a huge number. Until then, she had only been writing stories for herself, and nobody ever read them. Which, by the way, how many stories did Yasu write? Just for the 1986 conference alone, she wrote >3 stories that seemed rather detailed. And of course, she's always loved mysteries. But there's nothing that says that, when living on Rokkenjima, Yasu has to write stories related to Rokkenjima. She could have written any kind of story she wanted. And she does have a great imagination. She's not running a double life. After all, I never said she was. I only said she was planning to leave Rokkenjima and had prepared a place to stay, and that she had been writing Mystery stories in her spare time. And she does have spare time. A significant part of Yasu's story had her saying something like this: "by getting work done efficiently, you can finish earlier and have spare time to do what you want." After that, we started seeing her reading and discussing bunches of mysteries with Kumasawa. Where'd she get the time for all of that? Quote:
And well, Battler's role in the stories was usually not that huge. He never even had Detective's Authority, as is made clear by the fact that he saw Beatrice in earlier parts of the story. Off the top of my head, I can name the time he saw her on the balcony in EP4, after most everyone else had died. Now I'm not trying to say that Battler wasn't there in the stories, I'm only saying that I don't think it's that big of a change... Because I don't see Piece!Battler as a protagonist in any way. After all, how much editing has already been done to these stories? The fantasy scenes are only "fabricated processes leading up to the same result" and there are a LOT of them, to the point where a great deal of the story in the episodes only has metaphorical significance at best. Quote:
Well, at any rate, even if happy!Kinzo has some truth to him, I can't accept that the real Kinzo is 100% like that. BATTLER's goal wasn't to give her the truth... And I'm pretty sure he admitted to some extent that he had just been feeding her illusions. Quote:
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Certainly, you could say that he drowned on Oct. 6, 1986, or you could say that the drowning scene was one big metaphor, but either way... After he ended up on Niijima, it could have been months before the traffic accident occurred, for all we know. |
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2012-01-12, 09:55 | Link #26987 | |
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Plus you never know. Maybe Battler was perfectly fine and living on the down-low for several years after escaping unharmed, only to get clocked by some negligent sonofabitch and suffer brain damage. Why did he never contact Ange? He was gonna, but he kept putting it off because he hates her. Everyone in her family hated her. You see how few shits they gave about her! They mocked her diarrhea and vomiting for crying out loud.
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2012-01-12, 10:21 | Link #26988 | |
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There's one thing I don't like about Yasu-Ikuko theory. It made the ending lost its emotional aspect somehow. And it's kinda cheap. There's just some thing seriously wrong in the vision that Yasu somehow survived the crap she at least partly created, managed to become famous for her knowledge of it, seemed to live a free life and kept her mouth shut despite her probably knowledge that the victims' family members must be suffering for the incident. It's very different from the guilt - burdened Beatrice/Yasu. I can't put my thought very clear...but seriously, there's something very messed up in it. Morally messed up. |
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2012-01-12, 10:30 | Link #26989 | |
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Not really, but I'm not entirely kidding either. Seriously, read the few parts where they even mention Ange (and all the parts where they seem to forget she exists). Family's a bunch of sociopaths who make fun of her illness and ignore her existence when it's inconvenient to them personally.
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2012-01-12, 10:42 | Link #26990 | |
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Though, I really don't know what you think she's going to go do to help the other survivors. I doubt either Eva or Ange would be too thrilled to see her face. To Eva, she would be a servant who has gravely overstepped their bounds, most likely. And Ange really doesn't know a thing about her. And we know from EP8 that if she told Ange the truth, it would only hurt her and cause her to reject it completely. Actually, all 3 of the other survivors seem like they would prefer it if the truth was kept secret. If she were to go out and reveal something like that, I'm pretty sure that would just be betrayal. It definitely wouldn't be helping them. Eva in particular is willing to be branded the culprit just to keep it secret. I don't see a single problem here. |
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2012-01-12, 10:49 | Link #26991 | |
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Age: 30
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I was, and still have yet to completely outgrow it. Can't go around making a scene about such a trivial thing. It sounds bad with diarreah and vomiting (in my case, I would get an upset stomach and get nausios, sometimes even work up a small fever, but I wouldn't actually vomit unless they took me with them), but it's just that weak bodies tackle stress badly. When they don't have to be confronted with the source of it, it usually fades (I was sent to my grandmother a lot because I couldn't tackle many situations and it went away pretty quickly). I can hardly think my parents ever went around worrying about my condition, at least not visibly since it was a completely normal occurence to our family. Back when Battler joked about it, he did start off just telling how the situation was, then slipped into his usual less-than-tactful behavior, I don't think there was any ill will in there, that's just how he is. Last edited by CrimsonMoonMist; 2012-01-12 at 11:34. |
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2012-01-12, 13:13 | Link #26992 | |||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
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You're saying that Prime!Yasu wrote several different versions of a murder mystery that all included a typhoon "just because" and then there happened to actually be a typhoon closed circle that matched the same timing and duration in Prime. And this is nothing to say about accurately predicting Ange's absence or accurately predicting the significance of 24:00 Oct. 5, both of which make explaining everything even more complicated. It's so much cleaner if you suppose the bottles to be written post-incident. All you have to do is suppose Yasu is secretly alive somewhere. With some tricks from her it takes care of the "happen to find the bottles" coincidence too. Quote:
I can sooner accept that Yasu wrote her stories from scratch as soon as she had a weather report than she wrote the stories but edited the typhoon in later. But, I don't believe that either. Quote:
Or, you know, Battler's a culprit. |
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2012-01-12, 13:39 | Link #26993 | |
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I could say that Ange's future, where she hadn't been able to go to the conference, isn't necessarily Prime... But that makes it confusing. I could also say that, since Ange tends to have issues with stress anyway, the chances of her not being able to go aren't that low, and thus Yasu was easily able to predict it... But, I don't know. I really just don't think she could have written those stories that fast, if she did in fact write them afterwards. Then again, I seem to recall that Ikuko is very skilled at writing manually... If I say that Yasu=Ikuko, I think I could make this work. And it would also explain why Yasu knew that the bomb would go off and create a cat box for these stories... Because it already had gone off. |
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2012-01-12, 14:13 | Link #26994 | |
The True Culprit
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The rest doesn't really answer my complaints.
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2012-01-12, 15:18 | Link #26995 | |
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Spoiler cuts for lenght...
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2012-01-12, 15:25 | Link #26996 | |||
The True Culprit
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Moreover, since Yasu is strongly suggested to be suicidal and/or wanting to shack up with one of the three Ushiromiya cousins, WHY did she even bother? Quote:
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2012-01-12, 15:55 | Link #26997 | ||
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We can't confirm if Prime Yasu was really suicidal or if her being suicidal was merely a meta motive for piece Yasu/Shannon to kill herself. ... and we don't know if she planned to hook up with one of the cousins. My idea is that: - Yasu didn't think she could either marry Jessica or George... however George was becoming a bit more pressing for her to stall things further. - Yasu wanted to 'kill her Shannon and Kanon's identities' disappearing from Rokkenjima so she prepared another identity for herself as legally she's Sayo Yasuda, which is Shannon's real name. Causing others to believe Shannon is dead would mean to 'kill' Sayo as well. - Battler came back so she reconsidered faking her dead and leaving and faked a murder game... after which she might have left anyway (Ryukishi said something about how Shannon, Kanon and Beato all needed to die). - People dies however Yasu isn't the culprit. And here we might have various possibilities as: 1) she's not aware people are really dead as she still think they're faking dead and she's merely following her plan to leave Rokkenjima 2) she's aware people are dead but she's innocent and maybe doesn't even know what has happened or that Eva and Battler has survived. She leaves again following the plan as there's nothing she can do for who died and her position is definitely suspicious. 3) regardless of the fact that she knows or not that people is dead she was supposed to escape with Battler but they were parted/didn't meet for some reason. The explosion forces her to leave, hoping they'll meet up some other place (maybe she told him she has an home in that place... which is what pushed Battler to wander till there) 4) there's more but we'll never end if I list them all. The problem is that with the little material we've on Yasu and Ikuko we'll never know for sure. This is one of the answers I was hoping to get from 'Our confession', in short something more on Prime!Yasu. However at best we get a motivation for Piece!Yasu. It's better than nothing as previously the motivation for her to kill was even weaker but... *sighs* Well, I believe Featherine and Hanyuu are different people... though Ryukishi had fun in making them similar on purpose... but this might be because I believe that the meta is created by the mind of one character... |
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2012-01-12, 15:56 | Link #26998 |
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Join Date: Jan 2012
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Could it be something like Yasu left Ange out of the story because she didn't know how to handle a 6 year old child in a murderer scenario? Or that it would tie down Battler (the detective) to much if he had to keep constant watch over her?
Btw, wasn't the 2 first stories mentioned to have been written as diary entries (by “Maria”)? Isn’t it possible that the stories that was in the bottles wasn’t as detailed as the “game” we readers are shown? Just thought that it might have been somewhat easier to edit if it wasn’t as detailed as the game…. And while I’m at it: didn’t you guys have a debate some time ago regarding if the fantasy scenes where even written in the bottle-stories to begin with or if they where just added for the sake of the game by Beato. |
2012-01-12, 16:18 | Link #27000 | |
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Join Date: Aug 2011
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Am I mean if I find this terribly funny? |
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