2011-09-09, 08:05 | Link #24301 | ||||||||||||||||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
So: 1) at least one message in the bottle had to be ready by the 6th of october. 2) that message wasn't picked up by a fisherman or a random person but by the police that was investigating. So you want to say the black text is lying? Then how can you prove it? You can make a theory using as a basis that some black text had been a lie but how can you prove this specific bit is a lie? Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
I can't remember there was one confirming it. If it's just black text that confirmed it you're merely choosing to believe it. I'm choosing to consider also the possibility it might be lying. Any problem with this. Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
I'm merely explaining my reasoning. Why do you consider what I'm doing as an aggression to your theory? Quote:
Do you have an absolutely reliable person saying it? Someone that's not Ryukishi or Yasu because, according to you, they lie. An objective narrative supporting this? Why are you trying to force your theory on me as if it was a red truth? Quote:
Quote:
Incidentally my theory disagreed with what you were saying and what you were saying couldn't persuade me to revise it, which is why in the premise I said I was finding hard to accept the idea the messages were written after the incident. I read all the messages written pretty carefully. I was curious to see if someone could push me to revise my theory. I liked the idea of a conspiracy. Yet no one managed to present a theory that, for me, sounded convincing enough to change my mind. Maybe it's you who didn't really pay attention to what I wrote. Quote:
You don't agree and someone else will side with you as well. Just because some disagree, are you automatically right? Can't you accept there's people with different opinions and that this don't imply they're automatically wrong? Quote:
Quote:
I've also ALREADY said it's possible they were a last will or a request for help. Again, you weren't reading what I wrote. If the messages were sent prior to the incident the incident has chances of not happening ergo they would be taken as a prank. Yasu wouldn't know Beatrice was going to die, maybe she didn't even mean for her to 'die' along with her. However she could have changed her mind during the Rokkenjima incident and decide she would survive and Beatrice would die or that both of them would die. Quote:
Personally I didn't see you doing that great arguing with my theories. You basically: - decided to consider Ryukishi's words as lies - decided to consider Yasu as someone who always lies - decided to consider black text that doesn't match with your theory a lie - decided I couldn't talk about more than 1 theories - decided that some things were true without any clue given, be it even black text or other sources, no matter if they went against the black text - decided I was attacking your theory instead than exposing mine and complained when my words didn't fit with your idea - decided that whoever thought something different from you was wrong - completely failed to understand what was my point - didn't read my message carefully - accuse me of not having read your theory Forgive me if I'm not impressed by your argument. Can we now cut this pointless war and resume having fun on making theories and respecting other people's idea? Or, at least, since neither of us can prove he's right, can we simply agree to disagree? |
||||||||||||||||||
2011-09-09, 08:22 | Link #24302 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
|
I know and I don't like the kakera theory... I'm merely not discounting it because I don't like it.
Quote:
I'm questioning the purpose of lying on the nature or even the existence of the two messages in the bottles. I considered both options because yes, I too found weird how they could be accurate on some details and how their existence was confirmed only by: - some lines at the end of message 1 that stated there was 1 message in the bottle - Ange's travel (which I can't help but consider a fantasy. Feel free to disagree). To me, from a writing point of view, making up a story about the messages in the bottles wasn't worth the effort. of course Ryukishi can disagree and decide to use them as misleading hints. I really like the conspiration theory. Here and there i toy with it a bit but I can't find enough clues to make it rise in my eyes to more than the small bombs theory. It's a cool theory. Maybe if there was another Ep of Umineko planned I might hope it'll get more support. However, since apparently new Umineko Ep aren't planned it doesn't look solid enough to me. It's a pity, as I said I like it a lot but I merely don't deem safe to bet over it. Though I'd love it if someone will manage to find up more clues/theories to support it. |
|
2011-09-09, 08:22 | Link #24303 |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
Some people really seem to have issues with understanding the difference between testimony and evidence. Most of Umineko is built on this. In fact, a lot of the closed rooms Will talked about in ep7 were built mainly on the confusion of testimony for evidence. If someone tells you a room was locked and many incredible things just happened inside before the room magically became empty, pretty much all you have to go on is that you were told that. Everything about the person telling you what happened and the content of what they said is open for analysis. In a testimony-heavy scenario, most of the case will be circumstantial.
The difference between someone telling Battler a door was locked and Battler testing a door to find that it's locked is like the difference between a dozen eyewitnesses swearing a man shot another man and having the body, the bullet, the gun, and the registration card of the owner. You can positively identify the shooter in either case, but in each case the strategy of the Prosecution and Defense will change greatly. You can call me (and others) over-doubting, but on the other hand, I've been in court. At least characters in Umineko tell the truth some of the time.
__________________
|
2011-09-09, 08:46 | Link #24304 | ||
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
|
Quote:
It's hard to prove when something is a lie or a truth. I get the feeling when the black test is lying, it is lying about a whole scene, not just about a sentence (in Ep 5 the black test constructed a whole scene that started with 'someone knocking' and went on with the sibling wondering who it was, opening the door, finding the letter, discussing about it and so on. Likely they were handed the letter by Shannon... or they found the ring somewhere and decided to pretend Beatrice sent it... either way the whole scene would be a lie) Quote:
Though I won't necessarily always agree with you I love to be presented with a new point of view! |
||
2011-09-09, 13:18 | Link #24305 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
Quote:
All I can tell you for sure is, the prosecutors probably made the right call when they didn't charge Eva with anything. There's cases where the evidence is circumstantial, and then there's cases where there just isn't enough evidence at all. Interestingly, the message bottles could have been used in Eva's defense, if she could have gotten them introduced anyway. They're not proof as such that she didn't do it, but they could be argued to have relevance as an example of someone else potentially premeditating a crime. It might be enough for reasonable doubt... or whatever the Japanese criminal standard is. Now, could Nanjo's son sue Eva for Wrongful Death and win? ...probably not, but it'd be easier than convicting her of murder. Actually, I doubt she'd even get charged with murder. I could go into greater detail if I knew what topic you wanted me to focus on.
__________________
|
|
2011-09-09, 14:49 | Link #24306 | ||||||||||||
The True Culprit
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
And for the record, the Yasu Hoax theory isn't "mine", i'm just advocating it. I'm not so personally invested in it that I feel like you're a personal enemy for denying it. Apparently it doesn't go both ways because you took literally no time at all to get aggressive and Anyway, your points are all completely useless because not even the red is reliable because Ryukishi fucked that up too. Basically all the text is worthless and a reader can ignore whatever they want, including Ryukishi's text because he's completely incompetent. My general rule of thumb is to consider everything reliable unless it contradicts common sense and logic, makes more thematic sense, or it doesn't fit the character's personality.
__________________
|
||||||||||||
2011-09-09, 15:24 | Link #24307 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
|
Quote:
Evidently the fact English isn't our first language and we come from different cultures stop us from understanding each other because, from my point of view, you're the one who's throwing a fit, acting like a 10 years old, feeling like you're on trial and being overdefensive and whiny, insulting me declaring me an ass and using vulgar slang that's not exactly the best basis to have a mature conversation. Plus you insist in saying I wrote a rebuttal to the earlier idea when I already told you my intention was different. Considering all this I can't see the basis for having a mature conversation with you so I'm more than happy to cut this discussion. |
|
2011-09-09, 16:04 | Link #24308 | |
The True Culprit
|
Quote:
I swear like a sailor just because I can, it doesn't have anything to do with my emotions or my personal views of a person. I didn't cop an attitude until you started flaming me back, but if you did that because of a misunderstanding, then I apologize for that.
__________________
|
|
2011-09-09, 16:50 | Link #24309 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
|
Quote:
I didn't mean at all to flame you so sorry if I expressed my point of view poorly. I just translated your replies as if you wanted to force your ideas on me but I guess that wasn't the case. Let's restart from square 1, okay? |
|
2011-09-09, 17:15 | Link #24310 | ||||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
|
Yasu survived and was in contact and cooperation with Eva. Yasu wrote her stories post-incident and Eva helped facilitate their distribution.
Thoughts? Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Anyway what's your point? Quote:
And I really don't think there's much reason to doubt that episode 4 1998 is fiction of some kind for two main reasons, which I have stated before:
As you have demonstrated, meta is really useless as a story-telling device here, so the only other non-fiction option is Kakera. I have expressed my views about this before, that Kakera is a fair way to look at Umineko, but that there is also a (single) "real" world solution. Thus to fit that solution in any meaningful way, episode 4 1998 must be written fiction. Once you come at it from this angle, you can try to gain insight as to the state of the "real" world by asking who wrote it and why. As for "who", I think it's clearly Touya&Ikuko, especially since Ange/ANGE remarked about 18^8/Featherine killing her. Let's go on to the "why". I don't think it was all just Touya&Ikuko throwing out wild guesses as some form of answer-searching or just for fun: Showing us such nonsense would, as you say, have little narrative value. Thus, it means there's communication going on with the readers in the "real" world (well, with at least one reader). Let us consider the parts of Ange's ep 4 story that contain "new" information for readers in the "real" world, namely Maria's diary and the PIN number letters: Regardless of whether their fictional depiction accurately matches "reality", one major effect that these parts have is reinforcing the idea of the message bottles being written pre-incident. Another is that they made Beatrice appear fickle and mysterious. These were probably intended effects. However, Ange's observation about the writings being a "massive undertaking" makes the idea that the messages were written pre-incident a lot more extraordinary and enigmatic. So, the real question is: Why do Touya&Ikuko write in such a way as to reinforce Beatrice's mysteriousness? Is it because they are revealing information or ideas they have about Beatrice through their fiction? Or, are they using fiction to "reveal" misinformation? And (this seems to be becoming something of a catch phrase for me)... It makes sense if Ikuko=Yasu. |
||||
2011-09-09, 18:22 | Link #24311 | ||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
|
Quote:
I don't know however how Eva would feel in regard to Yasu. She didn't seem to have gotten a good impression of her in Ep 7 tea Party, though it can be a distorsion or a lie or she could have revised her opinion. Eva post Rokkenjima is presented as very bitter and almost cruel but that's Ange's point of view so I don't think it's completely reliable. Even if I tend to think for Eva it would be more convenient to accuse Yasu of being the culprit... I assumed also that some circumstances in Rokkenjima Prime might have caused Eva to decide to cooperate with her. Maybe she could have learnt the truth on her and felt pity for her or due to assorted circumstances the two could have stuck an alliance against the true culprit. In my absolutely fave theory, Battler got shot byt he true culprit so, once the culprit die, Yasu decided to risk leaving the island even though the sea wasn't calm yet to get him to a doctor (if Battler was unconscious it can explain how he calmly traveled on a boat and if Yasu had to try and save him it can explain why she dismissed the idea of suicide) while Eva decided to stay. At first she had no idea if the two survived and, anyway covered up for them thinking this could spare them from troubles. Later Yasu might have contacted her. However I can't check details on Ep 8 so, even if I could find some clues to support my idea, it's an extremely weak theory. I guess at the moment everyone can blow it up rather easily and, since I can't check the details I can't really defend it, just keep it 'on hold' -_- I'm anxiously waiting for the day we'll have the rest of the translation of Ep 8 to see if it can work, if it needs some revision or if it'll be mercilessly shot down completely... -_- Any suggestion on how I could work it better will be loved. Quote:
I'm not referring to when a character says a lie but when narrative does it. Can it be the warning than the following scene is a lie as well? But I still have to check all the scenes in which the text lies so if you know of one that can shoot down this theory please tell me. You'll spare me from a long research. Quote:
Feel free to consider me weird. Quote:
The only thing I tend to believe differently from you is that I assume Ange's story exists only in Toya's mind and not in the Alliance Toya and Ikuko wrote. Though, now that you make me think at it, I don't know how much the story he wrote with Ikuko might have influenced his thoughts... so yes, Ikuko's idea might have intruded in Toya's subconscious, causing him to unconsciously build misinformation. Damn, this is complicate but it might work. Since it looks like Toya isn't really wandering around and it was ikuko who was using the pc it's possible he gets the info on the Rokkenjima case from Ikuko and doesn't check them, possibly because he has mixed feelings about remembering his past (I'm not sure about him not checking the info though... he must have read the message bottles at least... does Ep 8 say something about Toya searching for info on the Rokkenjima incident by himself or first hand?). He likely never saw when the messages were sent, nor he talked with the police or a witch hunter expert. So, all Ikuko had to do was to tell him the message bottles were sent at X time and found at X time and he would believe it, then he would end up constructing a scene in which Ootsuki tells Ange that the message bottles were sent prior to the incident. To him it's truth because he believes in Ikuko. The result however is we're misinformed. It can work. I'll need to study it better though. LOL you know on this I agree with you... |
||||
2011-09-09, 18:42 | Link #24312 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Aug 2011
|
Quote:
If you don't mind I've a lot of questions about the legal aspects of Umineko but it's okay if you can't reply to them all since they regard Japan law. Let's start with a question I had from early in the beginning. The game of the epitaph. Here we've laws that makes impossible for Yasu inherit Kinzo's whole fortune. A huge part would necessarily go to the siblings (and to Kinzo's wife if she were to still be alive) regardless of Kinzo's wishes. Also claiming ownership of Kinzo's whole fortune by solving the epitaph while Kinzo was still alive would be tricky as well because for such a gift or premium to be legal, Yasu should pay taxes on it and face a legal procedure taht would transfer the ownership of Kinzo's whole fortune from Kinzo to her. Also the cousins could claim Kinzo was old and this had caused him to grow insane and that this was the reason why he handed it. In short the siblings' fear that someone could inherit Kinzo's whole fortune would be silly in my country. Do you know if it would be reasonable in the Umineko world? |
|
2011-09-09, 19:37 | Link #24313 | |
Senior Member
|
Quote:
Each locked room for example was explained from the very beginning as something that the witch constructed to fight Battler, therefore every method was given to us to fight those depictions as long as they did not conflict any solid facts that we were told. Even the often quoted knock and letter scene in EP5 was obviously marked as a scene constructed to trap the audience and was even discussed so far as to leave as the only reasonable explanation, that there was no knock in the first place. Of course lies are an integral part of the story. But it is two things to expose the lies in sequences that were properly marked and to charge scenes with lies that were never marked as actually conflicting in the first place. For example I could go and doubt wether all those characters were on the island in the first place, as only Maria's jaw was found. This would of course be a valid theory as I could state lines that prove that no signs of any presence beside Maria and Eva was found. But there is no instance in the narrative that actually instigates any doubt in wether those characters were on the island. I find it fascinating how many theories can be constructed from the basic set of information that Ryûkishi gave us, but it is a question wether we want to solve our Umineko or Ryûkishi's Umineko. AT for example, when saying that he decided not to trust Ryûkishi anymore, is basically trying to solve his Umineko as Ryûkishi's Umineko is no longer a standard for him. Therefore some people here have different goals than others I'd say. Or Renall for example argues from a standpoint of realism and legal facts. The question is wether this is a layer that was included in the narrative from the start or if it is augmenting personal preferences with aspects of Ryûkishi's narrative. There is nothing wrong with doing this, but some people seem to get seriously annoyed when there isn't really a shared goal to reach. And sometimes it stresses me as well to see how these several approaches towards different kinds of solutions run parallel to each other, but are of course doomed to never really fuse into one because of their inherent differences. I would argue that legal bearings have no influence and power in the world of Umineko. In case of modern criminology being advanced enough to circumvent problems that occured in the Rokkenjima investigation he placed the events in 1986 on a secluded island that was technically still in the state of an estate in the 1930's. Concerning legal facts he could not just place the scenario in a setting where legal matters did not exist, so I think they are in a similar realm as the rain as they don't really matter to the case. Most likely Ryûkishi is not that knowledgable about Japanese law in such an indepth manner as that he could construct a whole narrative about it. As far as he mentioned he is approaching it from a similar point as many mystery authors which is "it doesn't matter". He himself said that Umineko is ot Shakai-ha, which would be the genre concerned which social problems, scandals and a morally rotten system of politics and laws. There are of course court mysteries which deal with those problems in some parts. But I would argue that many of them are still more classical mystery than correct judicial thriller...like for example Carr's Judas Window. For example, even though the Court of Illusions is a central part of EP5's narrative, I'd argue that judicial facts have no influence on Umineko's story at all. It's just a setting that is used and could as well have been any other, just that a court is most fitting to judge a criminal. |
|
2011-09-09, 20:27 | Link #24314 | |
The True Culprit
|
Quote:
__________________
|
|
2011-09-09, 21:15 | Link #24316 | ||
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
Quote:
Quote:
First of all, the gold is not legally possible to pass down to anyone. Kinzo doesn't legally own it, because it shouldn't even exist, and if it did exist, it probably belongs to the Italian or German or Japanese or American government. So the epitaph providing the gold is obviously a non-estate transaction. Naturally, if anyone else knew about the stuff they'd tell the cops outright. Mostly out of spite. So nobody gets the gold unless it's kept absolutely secret. The rest is trickier. I'd consider there to be three major components to Kinzo's estate:
Control of his companies is trickier. It's pretty much legal to transfer your ownership stake or set up a trust or something. However, Kinzo would ideally need to do this before he dies (as in the Lion scenario, where the property is probably in a trust to Lion with Krauss as its conservator until Lion's majority). This would also need to be a registered, licensed transaction. Headship is easy, I assume. Unless Japan has specific family laws about being a family head, it's just a privately-assigned title within the family. Kinzo can designate anybody he wants the head of his family. Really, there's no way that Kinzo can get away with any of this. He can't "unofficially" transfer everything to anyone because it won't have legal weight over his will (and I assume he has an ordinary will, or did at one point or other). He can't edit his will unless he has a specific person in mind. So "the guy who solves the epitaph" probably wouldn't stand up in court (it's impossible to prove you solved it first anyway). But you could say "Yasu solved the epitaph, so in my will I now leave everything to Yasu." That will would be valid, but there's no way Krauss and his siblings will let that stand. They'll sue, and probably argue that Kinzo wasn't in his right mind toward the end of his life. Reclusiveness, crying constantly over a "witch," occult fascination... if I'm the Ushiromiya Group's lawyers, I'm liking those odds. If the will gets thrown out, they'd probably revert to an earlier will (probably a standard will leaving everything to his wife and/or surviving children and grandchildren). If all his wills are invalid, or he never had any others, then Japanese intestate law would hold. I don't know how that works but my guess is everything he owns would be split among his children in a contentious legal battle over individual assets. Oh, and Yasu would theoretically get a stake in the estate as Kinzo's fifth child... if she can prove it. Good luck with that. I suppose a DNA test would prove Kinzo's paternity (or not) though... Did Ryukishi think of any of this? Probably not beyond "there is no way the siblings would accept that, unless paid off immediately."
__________________
|
||
2011-09-09, 22:08 | Link #24317 | ||||
Goat
Join Date: Jul 2006
Location: Gnawing away at Rokkenjima
|
Quote:
Quote:
Quote:
Also, I wasn't saying it was necessarily part of Alliance (at least not this time around). Quote:
Well, to be honest my biggest doubt about Ikuko=Yasu isn't something anyone else even mentioned: It's that Ikuko, who hides her age, was very pleasantly surprised during their first conversation when she misinterpreted Touya's muttering of "18" to be a guess at her age. If she's Yasu, she shouldn't be that much older than 18. |
||||
2011-09-09, 22:19 | Link #24318 |
Dea ex Kakera
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Sea of Fragments
|
@Renall:
It was my (possibly incorrect) understanding that in the 80's, Japan had an obscenely high inheritance tax, so it was fairly routine to for families to dodge it by transferring their wealth through something like a family head system instead of a will.
__________________
|
2011-09-09, 23:15 | Link #24320 | |
BUY MY BOOK!!!
Join Date: May 2009
|
Quote:
However, unless Japan had different trust laws, that transfer would more or less have to happen when Kinzo was alive.
__________________
|
|
|
|