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Old 2010-02-03, 16:23   Link #5861
chronotrig
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
Well, the clues pointing to Kasumi imposing as Kyrie are as many as Nanjo's granddaughter imposing as Nanjo...
I'd argue that the latter has more clues going for it, but either way, the Nanjo theory doesn't involve someone changing their actual name for the sole purpose of the red text. Whether Nanjo's granddaughter was related to him or adopted, her name is Nanjo just as much as Terumasa's is. There's no artificial name-changing at all.

Also, Kanon and Shanon are not necessarily one person taking another person's name (depending on which version of the Shkanon theory you like). It might just be a single person represented by multiple characters, multiple names. In other words, if Battler dressed up as Shannon, that wouldn't make him "Shannon" just because he tricked someone. Maybe Sayo is the only person who can take Shannon's or Kanon's names.

Of course, it's very possible that I'm wrong with this interpretation, but it seems to be pretty consistent.
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Old 2010-02-03, 16:33   Link #5862
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Originally Posted by Kaisos Erranon View Post
There's still a year left to go before she'd be declared legally dead... unless someone got a certain doctor to declare her death after only, say, four months.
I didn't think of adding Nanjo to the plot in that way, but that definitely makes sense.
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Old 2010-02-03, 16:36   Link #5863
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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
I'd argue that the latter has more clues going for it, but either way, the Nanjo theory doesn't involve someone changing their actual name for the sole purpose of the red text. Whether Nanjo's granddaughter was related to him or adopted, her name is Nanjo just as much as Terumasa's is. There's no artificial name-changing at all.
My problem with this theory has always been that a) It's little better than Unknown Person X, and b) It carries very little personal and emotional impact for Battler.

If it were true, the ending would be literally: "Oh, so it was just that Old Guy I Don't Care About's daughter? Oh well, lock her up, boys. I'm sure we'll never see her again." *scare chord*

But if the mastermind was Kyrie or Asumu? Just imagine Battler's reaction. There would more UWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO than all the other games put together.

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Originally Posted by Ssol View Post
I didn't think of adding Nanjo to the plot in that way, but that definitely makes sense.
Despite his apparent unimportance, the guy has to be relevant to the story somehow. And since doctors kind of wield the power over life and death in a way, well...
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Old 2010-02-03, 17:05   Link #5864
Antera Caramichael
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Originally Posted by ijriims View Post
If I was the one controlling the Sumadera family, I would probably send Kyrie to get the gold instead of Kasumi, as I know Kasumi is much inferior to Kyrie, ability-wise.
But Kyrie left/was banned of the Sumadera Family because she became Rudolf mistress, and then cut off every bonds she had with it. If I were them, I would not trust her in any cases, since she practicaly ran away from the family... And we don't know if Kasumi is really inferior to Kyrie, she just claim that she wasn't but at the same time, she was just destined to be married and I doubt she could prove her abilities, a bit like Eva...

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Originally Posted by chronotrig View Post
Also, Kanon and Shanon are not necessarily one person taking another person's name (depending on which version of the Shkanon theory you like). It might just be a single person represented by multiple characters, multiple names. In other words, if Battler dressed up as Shannon, that wouldn't make him "Shannon" just because he tricked someone. Maybe Sayo is the only person who can take Shannon's or Kanon's names.

Of course, it's very possible that I'm wrong with this interpretation, but it seems to be pretty consistent.
Like I said, the Kinzo thing is in the same way: It is said that "Kinzo" is a title and then anyone can reconize the head as "Kinzo". Then couldn't it be the same for "Kyrie", Sumadera's hire? With everyone seeing her as the real, Rudolf's wife Kyrie?
The difference with Battler disguising as Shanon is different. In Kasumi case, everyone reconized her as Kyrie. That's different with someone who would "mistake" Battler for Shanon, which you would aggree, would still be pretty impossible. In every cases, Shanon would be for everyone Sayo, thus no red truth could say "Shanon did...." speaking of Battler.
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Old 2010-02-03, 17:56   Link #5865
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You said "Asumu would then stagger to her home and look for Rudolf to call the police. However, as it was hinted before, Rudolf and Kyrie were having an affair at that time. Since Asumu had been away Rudolf could have invited Kyrie over and they could have slept together. What would Asumu's reaction be if she were to stagger home and see through a window that her husband was with another woman?"

Where did Asumu fall? On Rokkenjima or the mainland? I think it's unlikely Kyrie would visit Rokkenjima before Asumu's death. It's odd for Shannon to go so far from Rokkenjima, or for there to be cliffs near Rudolf's house.
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Old 2010-02-03, 18:01   Link #5866
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I think it would have happened near Rudolf and Asumu's home not Rokkenjima. We know that Rudolf lived in a very wealthy home so I don't think it's a stretch for it to have been built near some cliffs.

It was hinted that servants take trips to the mainland since Kumasawa had probably done so episode 1.

Edit: Well, she was on Niijima so I guess "trip outside of Rokkenjima" qualifies.
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Old 2010-02-03, 18:11   Link #5867
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Spoiler for size:
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Old 2010-02-04, 02:15   Link #5868
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Regarding the link above to my old post about Kyrie=Kasumi=Asumu.

Around that time I was trying to construct a theory around Kyrie since she was looking suspicious for the following reasons:

1) was not a popular suspect at that time (after ep3);
2) matched the killer's psychological profile pretty well;
3) her behaviour towards the end of ep4 seemed very unortodox and suspicious, as well as the circumstances of her death, which could be staged;
4) she was an obvious choice for the culprit in ep 4 (see above) and ep 3 (Nanjo's death);
5) she died conviniently early in both ep1 and ep2, which should always raise a red flag in that particular mystery type;
6) her past was murky, she had some shady dealings with both Asumu and Battler, so she could be connected with his sin from 6 years ago, since Battler's sin is either 1) family related (Asumu, Kyrie, Rudolf, Kasumi) or 2) love related (Shannon, Jessica) and I hate love-related motives in mystery ficton;
7) she just felt a good, satisfying culprit for me from the author's perspective (and I felt it shouldn't be considered cheating to look from that perspective, since the game was heavily rigged by R07 anyway) - see also that excellent post on the matter:

http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=1863

The problem was to explain Kyrie's early death in ep1 and 2. That is when Kasumi doubling as Kyrie comes into play, since it's the only way to get around ep1 and ep2 without resorting to the fake corpses which was never that popular among people, me included.

So, that was more of a technical exercise to make "Kyrie=culprit" theory plausible than a carefully constructed theory about Kasumi or Sumadera family involvment in the murders.

Obviously, ep 5 (and ep 6 especially) have heavily shifted our focus on events, but:

1) I still regard Kyrie as an excellent and satisfying culprit (and highly fascinating one, as the recent popularity poll here demonstrated), but by now she indeed became so obvious that it would almost feel a liitle anticlimatic; she's no Beatrice though, but then again Beato is more of a concept than a real person anyway and may have nothing to do with the real mastermind;

2) Kasumi posing as Kyrie in one or more episodes is preferable to chrono's "Nanjo's daughter from hell" theory simply because it's more economical (no need to introduce new characters to the story) and more ingenious (because it makes the frankly insufferable Ange flashforwards from 1998 finally serve a purpose other than bore people to death - they are suddenly very relevant and constiute a major case of foreshadowing); however, this still remains more of a technical exercise for solving the problem of 'Kyrie's death' in ep 1 and 2 (which it does) than a stand-alone theory, and I won't say that I'm that fond of the "Sumadera connection" or "Asumu no Kaidan" theories to develop them any further, although I'll say that: if Asumu is a culprit (which I doubt), Kasumi=Asumu is highly likely (in the same vein as if the child of a 19th years ago is anything more than a phone prank by the real culprit (which I highly doubt), that child is almost certain to be Kanon).

To summarize:

1) I still believe Kyrie is the most likely culprit;
2) To me, Kasumi theory is better than Nanjo's daughter theory, if only for aesthetic reasons, though frankly I don't believe in either one of them;
3) Fake corpses are a no-no.
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Old 2010-02-04, 03:33   Link #5869
ijriims
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Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
To summarize:

1) I still believe Kyrie is the most likely culprit;
2) To me, Kasumi theory is better than Nanjo's daughter theory, if only for aesthetic reasons, though frankly I don't believe in either one of them;
3) Fake corpses are a no-no.
Saying Kyrie as the mastermind behind all is quite trivial, as many of us in this forum have put her into the high position on the list of culprit.

Rather than saying Kasumi imposing as Kyrie and killed all the people, I prefer a theory Kyrie coaxed the innocent real Beatrice (Maria's master, either she be Shannon or Jessica) into following her innocous plan of "faking deaths" to urge the Ushiromiyas to solve the epitaph, but behind the scene Kyrie had her own plan of eliminating the whole family and transfer all the wealth and gold to Ange, and thus Sumadera family.

This is what I have viewed as reasonable and satisfying plotline. However, even though many people work on theories basing on this line of thoughts, none seems to have successfully explain some of the episodes and facts (writing letters-in-the-bottle saying that all people would die in the end and urging people to solve the mystery in the name of Maria, sending huge amount of money to people not on Rokkenjima a few days before the incident, etc).
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Old 2010-02-04, 04:51   Link #5870
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My problem with this theory has always been that a) It's little better than Unknown Person X, and b) It carries very little personal and emotional impact for Battler.

If it were true, the ending would be literally: "Oh, so it was just that Old Guy I Don't Care About's daughter? Oh well, lock her up, boys. I'm sure we'll never see her again." *scare chord*

But if the mastermind was Kyrie or Asumu? Just imagine Battler's reaction. There would more UWOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO than all the other games put together.

Despite his apparent unimportance, the guy has to be relevant to the story somehow. And since doctors kind of wield the power over life and death in a way, well...
Well I must say this is a pretty valid point...

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Originally Posted by Dr. Akagi View Post
- see also that excellent post on the matter:

http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=1863
Ehm... you are aware that the "Ushiromiya Kasumi" is actually an error made by Witch Hunt and that in the original there has never been such a thing, right?
This doesn't qualify as a hint not even in the least

Also some of the exclusions made by ChaosDimension are questionable, and I wouldn't bet on them.

That being said I do think that Kyrie would fit as a culprit for various reasons

Quote:
none seems to have successfully explain some of the episodes and facts
there is a simple one: Beatrice is aware of the "unfortunate incident" that is going to happen. While the murderer (if there is one) wouldn't have really any reason to kill people by him/herself if he/she knew that such a thing would happen.
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Old 2010-02-04, 05:04   Link #5871
ijriims
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there is a simple one: Beatrice is aware of the "unfortunate incident" that is going to happen. While the murderer (if there is one) wouldn't have really any reason to kill people by him/herself if he/she knew that such a thing would happen.

The question then is: if Beatrice is downright innocuous, why didn't she warn the people directly, but rather resort to means of urging the people to solve the epitaph and find refuge in Kwadorian?

If Beatrice allowed people to die in this "unfortunate incident", then she was not that innocuous...

Let me speculate this: both the mastermind and Beatrice knew about the "unfortunate incident", though Beatrice knew further that staying in Kwadorian would save everyone from this unfortunate incident while the mastermind did not. However because some secret of Betarice was held in the hand of the mastermind, Beatrice could not warn the people directly in fear that culprit would expose this secret, rather she suggested to the mastermind to setup a series of murder according to epitaph, and to make the witch killing more real, she proposed to send letters to the family and warn them about the coming of witch Beatrice, therefore she successfully make a chance for everyone to escape the "unfortunate incident".

This seemed to explain most of the mysteries (why Beatrice knew all people would die, why she send the money to the deceased's relative, why she urge someone to find the truth, why she did not tell the people directly about the imminent threat even she was innocuous). The question is what sort of secret Beatrice was afraid to be exposed.
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Old 2010-02-04, 05:21   Link #5872
Tyabann
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The question is what sort of secret Beatrice was afraid to be exposed.
I'm betting something to do with Battler, if that's the case.
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Old 2010-02-04, 05:24   Link #5873
Jan-Poo
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You are missing something in your picture

Because of your sin everyone dies

I don't think that your Kyrie theory would match with this, after all if Kyrie was bent on killing all of the Ushiromiya then everyone would die regardless of whatever sin battler committed 6 years before.

However if Beatrice is playing this game because of Battler's sin, then everything would be explained. Of course this means that Beatrice isn't so innocuous as you say, but technically she still wouldn't be a murderer, not directly at the very least. You might disagree but please consider this:

Because of Battler's sin everyone dies
Battler is not the culprit


Which means that according to Ryukishi it is possible to be the cause of everyone's death and not being the culprit at the same time.
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Old 2010-02-04, 05:29   Link #5874
ijriims
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You are missing something in your picture

Because of your sin everyone dies

I don't think that your Kyrie theory would match with this, after all if Kyrie was bent on killing all of the Ushiromiya then everyone would die regardless of whatever sin battler committed 6 years before.

However if Beatrice is playing this game because of Battler's sin, then everything would be explained. Of course this means that Beatrice isn't so innocuous as you say, but technically she still wouldn't be a murderer, not directly at the very least. You might disagree but please consider this:

Then maybe Battler sin was the reason why the mastermind got hold of Beatrice's secret. Without this sin, the mastermind could not threaten Beatrice and thus there would not be murders.

And I did not mention Kyrie. Were you replying to me? I was helping people who believe that Beatrice and the culprit to be two separate people by trying to offer inspiration on how to reconcile some seemingly contradictions.
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Old 2010-02-04, 06:14   Link #5875
Dr. Akagi
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Ehm... you are aware that the "Ushiromiya Kasumi" is actually an error made by Witch Hunt and that in the original there has never been such a thing, right?
This doesn't qualify as a hint not even in the least
Jan, for a smart person with a great sense of humor (yep, your yonkomas never fail to crack me up, keep them coming!) you are too prone to nitpick everything to death (but maybe that eye for the detail is what makes your Umineko derivatives such a hoot). Even as I was making that link, I already dreaded the moment Jan would appear, scan it word-for-word, and point out any and all inconsistencies identified. Gald you haven’t failed me!

But you missed the point, I’m afraid. I was referring specifically to the parts of Chaos post under the first two spoiler tags, which I still consider relevant. Of course “Ushiromiya Kasumi” is a translation mistake, which has been known for ages.

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That being said I do think that Kyrie would fit as a culprit for various reasons
Care to elaborate on them?
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Old 2010-02-04, 07:03   Link #5876
Jan-Poo
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Yeah I know... I'm a nitpicker... -_-;

But it's not like I didn't express my opinion on the first two parts, well the second at least... that is when I said that some of Chaosdimension exclusions are questionable.

For once excluding all the servants because of the dine rule is too hasty. We don't know if the dine rule apply here and we don't know if all the servants are actually "just servants" especially with the Shannontrice theory going around, or other "disguised people" theories.

Then excluding George just because "Shannon would be sad" isn't convincing enough. I guess someone is bound to get sad in any case, and actually for reasons Kaisos mentioned it would have a bigger impact on the story a culprit that would make someone feel emotionally crushed rather than a guy that no one would care about.

Now I'm not going to comment them all, but I think you can get what I mean.

as for Kyrie being the culprit, well... for once

-there isn't really any reason to rule her out. And at this point I think I can do that with almost half of the cast
-she is one of the first 18 people that appeared, and I think it would be better storywise if it was one of them
-she is smart enough to pull it off
-her moral level is confirmed to be low enough to resort to murder in order to achieve her goals (that however can also be said about George)
-she is a Sumadera and the Sumadera do not look like friendly persons, although you might say she's different.
-she's been waiting 12 long years for a man who dumped her for another woman, and she's spent 12 long years wishing that Asumu would die, putting all the blame on Asumu and never thinking: "hey maybe I deserve a better man". That's creepy...

There are however many reasons to think Kyrie wouldn't be the killer. The main one is the fact that after all she has done in order to get her hands on Rudolf why would she lose everything?

That's the main reason I didn't think she could be the killer until I thought that maybe she's completely insane. And after EP6 I wouldn't exclude that...
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Old 2010-02-04, 08:08   Link #5877
ijriims
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Putting servants as the culprit and mastermind has already been mentioned by Eva in EP1, which she said unsatisfactory since servants were just some people following orders.

I would say from the beginning Ryukishi07 already told us that the murderer group would not consist of servants alone.

-----------

Then Jan-Poo and some other people believing in Shannontrice, have you made your decision already? Is it Shannontrice with George as mastermind, Genji, Nanjo as accomplices? Battler's sin was forgetting his promise to come to rescue Shannon from whatever quandary she had been in, then Shannon had no choice to divert her love to George and therefore triggered George's evilness to murder the whole family.

While George's motive to murder the whole family was because he wanted to get money as soon as possible so that he could build his family with Shannon, and therefore he planned to kill all his relatives.

EP1 was about Shannon hiding her death and murdered everyone on Rokkenjima.

EP2 was about Shannon poisoning the sixes and in the end she and George got into dispute and killed each other.

EP3 was about George killed SHannon out of rage about her mentioning of Battler's promise and Nanjo went on to kill people, with Eva also murdered a few.

EP4 was about ...... SHannon declaring her succession to head of the family and exposed the death of Kinzo. She killed a few people and latter got quarrel with George again and killed him. Shannon then proceeded to threaten Jessica and Kyrie into telling witches'tales to Battler and asked whether Battler could remember the promise he had broken.

EP5 was George pretending death initially along with Genji, Rosa, Maria and Jessica. Then he murdered the other five and attacked Hideyoshi but was latter killed by SHannon.

Something close to the above?
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Old 2010-02-04, 09:18   Link #5878
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EP4 was about ...... SHannon declaring her succession to head of the family and exposed the death of Kinzo. She killed a few people and latter got quarrel with George again and killed him. Shannon then proceeded to threaten Jessica and Kyrie into telling witches'tales to Battler and asked whether Battler could remember the promise he had broken.
Personally, I think Shannon tried to stop the murders, just like in Episode 3. This time however, instead of confronting George about it, she decided that she would go to the conference, declare herself Kinzo, tell the location of the gold, and get the family to unite so nothing bad would happen. However, the family did not take this declaration well at all ( as we have seen earlier, while they quarrel, they will unite if someone outside the family appears to get the title and the gold, and Shannon definitely fits that scenario) and so completely united against her, which frankly caused Shannon to snap.
This time it's Shannon working completely alone, without any aid from Nanjo or Genji whatsoever. Jessica I'm not certain about, but Kyrie I'm more or less convinced she recorded that and then had the recording play towards Battler. I simply cannot accept that that was an alive Kyrie on the phone.

Quote:
EP5 was George pretending death initially along with Genji, Rosa, Maria and Jessica. Then he murdered the other five and attacked Hideyoshi but was latter killed by SHannon.
Five I'm very, very uncertain about, as I'm convinced that there are a ton more fake scenes masquerading as real scenes due to the nature of this game. I haven't really come up with a proper Episode 5 theory, and will have to play it again in order to deduce one really.

Quote:
-there isn't really any reason to rule her out. And at this point I think I can do that with almost half of the cast
This interested me. Whom can you rule out?
At this point I think we can say with certainty that Krauss, Natsuhi, Battler, and Maria are not culprits and that Natushi and Battler are not accomplices. I'm also inclined to probably (though not certainly) rule out:
Rosa( way too suspicious in Second Episode, dies First Twilight First Episode, dies early way too often),
Hideyoshi(not so much "rule him out" but more "we have absolutely no evidence whatsoever he's a culprit as we still know pretty much nothing about him", definitely can't see him killing Eva),
Rudolf( dies First Episode First Twilight)
Gohda( dies First Episode First Twilight, too minor a character, his diary seems to be imply he's a bumbling idiot).

So, who do yoou have.
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Old 2010-02-04, 09:28   Link #5879
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actually no I don't think that pinpointing the culprit is an easy task I can only have conjectures at the moment.

Actually I'm not even sure that a culprit exist at all as it was hinted in the game itself (EP6) the possibility that no one was ever murdered at all in the previous games. and that everyone died in the end only because of an unfortunate incident, after playing some kind of game where people faked their own deaths.

The existence of some kind of "game" where a lot of people are faking their own death and the others play along seem quite probable right now, however it is also possible that someone is taking advantage of the situation to kill for real. But who and why is anyone's guess.

As I said Kyrie is a probable one, I see George less probable now but it is still possible. And I wouldn't bet that it can only be either of them.


Anyway about EP2 I'm actually convinced that Beatrice really did show herself to the family and probably explained that she knows where the gold is hidden as well as some other secret (that she is the child from 19 years before maybe), and in that instance she got them to take part in the "game", probably by promising she would give them the gold if they did.
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Old 2010-02-04, 10:04   Link #5880
Raiza Sunozaki
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The problem with this is that Beato used red truth in game at certain point, like to confirm that Kanon died in Jessica's room in Episode 2. She doesn't say "Kanon dies in this room." She says Kanon died in this room. Or, I think. It's been a while since I played Episode 2.
Then again, if the meta-world is actually always after the game ends, then this is no problem.
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