[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[Ithekro]

Actually there are a lot of 99.99% pure gold ingots, just most of them are in old banks and treasuries. Fort Knox has an example holds about 4,603 tons of gold (something like 368,000 bars). Japan from 1945 to 1955 was under Allied occupation. Kinzo got his gold, supposedly, around 1952. This is during the Korean War, when Allied/UN forces staged out of Japan during times the majority of South Korea was overrun by the communist North Korea. Add to this Kinzo has had time since 1923 to rebuild his family's wealth. We know the gold exists. We don't know how Kinzo got it.

Even games and mysteries have rules. They are to be followed.

[Smeckledorf]

Let me revise that it didn't come out right, not a lot of people owned 99.99% pure gold ingots back in that day and age nonetheless tons of it. You say there are a lot of ways he could have gotten the gold but how would no one notice that there was gold missing then and he 'magically' got a lot of gold on the same day? I don't think he stole the gold. But I am not going to take your route and say it doesn't make sense.
Also, where in episodes 1-4 was it stated that cloning is against the rules?

[Kaiba]

Kaiba, I was using the definition of a fact. A fact is something that can be verified. If I showed you that all of Japan was just erased off the face of the Earth using really nice special effects on a video would you believe me, probably not. If I got 50 people to tell you that happened would you believe me, probably not. You obviously know nothing of how scientific facts work or else you would know how flimsy the word fact is.

There's a reason I'm a liberal arts major
But even the Devil's Proof has limits, or there would be people who would consider the small bombs a legitimate attack (and really, how is cloning any more far-fetched than small bombs?). And using the Devil's Proof to argue that cloning is a legitimate tactic doesn't really work, as there really needs to be some evidence in favor of something in order to prove a theory, or we're just grasping at straws and playing with nothing and can throw out anything and everything.
Can I prove completely that cloning is not part of the mystery and Kinzo had no cloning? With Episode 4, no. (I would argue that cloning can be disproven using the red truths in Episode 5, but that's another story). But Ryukishi using cloning would simply be incredibly bad writing and a cop-out.

Let me revise that it didn't come out right, not a lot of people owned 99.99% pure gold ingots back in that day and age nonetheless tons of it. You say there are a lot of ways he could have gotten the gold but how would no one notice that there was gold missing then and he 'magically' got a lot of gold on the same day? I don't think he stole the gold. But I am not going to take your route and say it doesn't make sense.

The mere fact that we know with certainty that 99.99% gold bars existed during the 1950s and 1960s alone makes it more plausible than human cloning, something for which there is absolutely no evidence of it existing during that time both in real life and in the context of this game.

[Ithekro]

Ah...qualifiers. In Episodes 1-4 there is no statement that cloning is against the rules. But then in Episodes 1-4...you don't know what the rules are...do you?

The gold is, we just don't know how he got it. All we have are rumors of how he got it. We can't even really be sure when he got it. All we know is that he has it.

He could have got it over a period of time. He could have invested in gold (people do that), selling off family property from the Earthquake and turning the money in for gold ingots. He could have made a deal with the United States Army during either war (WW2 or Korea). He could have been given the gold and/or money then invested in gold from a wealthy woman named Beatrice...in her will (since the rumor is he got the money happens to be about the same time she died). He could have had it stolen form a bank that was destroyed by the Earthquake. There are many things that could happen that don't take improbable science to justify it happening.

The easiest is that he had time to gather all that gold. Its nearly 30 years from the time of the Earthquake to the time he has the mansion build on the island, and then over another 30 years until the murders of 1986. That's over 60 years for this pile of 800 gold bars to get into one place.

[Smeckledorf]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Can I prove completely that cloning is not part of the mystery and Kinzo had no cloning? With Episode 4, no. (I would argue that cloning can be disproven using the red truths in Episode 5, but that's another story). But Ryukishi using cloning would simply be incredibly bad writing and a cop-out.

Thank you, someone understands my point. Now as for the reasoning as to why cloning could be a theory. The existence Kinzo was recognized at the family conference. Eva-Kinzo was not the witch in the third world and there yet to be proof that Kinzo is a name that is passed down. I think Kinzo's existence would be recognized if he were alive and there but we all know that he was not. I personally oppose the whole Kinzo's name as a title blue truth and again since most of the blue truths were wrong I would think this one is not different.

I recognize that I could be wrong on this point and I recognize the cloning as a theory may not be taken up by anyone. HOWEVER, most of you seem to ignore my point and think that I want you to accept this as the only possibility. As long as you are not telling me that this was disproved in episodes 1-4 there is nothing I can really say. But as long as you are going to deny it as a possibility, as low as the possiblity could be, you are just simply wrong. Let me please state this for the last time, I have not yet seen anything in episodes 1-4 that disclaim this.


Edit: What did Kinzo have to invest? If I recall correctly, the Ushiromiya family was in ruins and he brought it back up. Also, I am actually not sure about this part but didn't he buy the island, so he would have to have had some money at that point and then he would need to accumulate more. I do personally think that if something improbable as Kinzo obtaining such a vast wealth and a lot of gold ingots without anyone actually knowing how he did so happened then I think it lowers the probability bar for this series.

[Kaiba]

You can play around with cloning all you want for now then, but I'll simply state that a look at the Episode 5 red truths show that you're wasting your time. Cloning is not part of the answer for this mystery, period.

[Ithekro]

Again..qualifiers. Up to Episode 4, there is nothing outside of common sense that states that cloning is not possible.

After that...the red gets deep. There are rules. Rules in red. One suggests moving on to the next game.

Mainly because I don't like being in a corner when I have a weapon I can us...but am not allowed to use it.


EDIT: Getting loans because you are considered a good investment is very possible if you happen to have a few tons of gold. That seems to be where Krauss found that one bar...it was used to varify the gold existed for a bank loan. If you default on the loan, the bank gets your gold.

[Smeckledorf]

I wouldn't know about episode 5 or else I would have posted it in there, but rest assured when I finish 5 and if I find out I am wrong then this theory will not be in the episode 5 section. And what do you mean qualifiers? I would state that since this is an episode 4 forum that only episodes up to 4 are able to be used in your logic. If I wanted to state that this theory was true for episode 5 then don't you think it would be in that section of the forums?

OK, I will bite. Where is the common sense in an entire island of people dying without a culprit? Do you think Battler knows whether cloning is possible or not? Who knows, you cannot prove it. Learning human cloning isn't possible is not part of the curriculum for high school classes.

[Ithekro]

Qualifiers means that limited by this thread...Episode 4, I can't fully denounce your theory with hard proof. In the Episode 5 thread, I would not have any qualifiers limiting the red avalible...specifically the rules of the game.

Basically I have an advantage, but am placed at a disavantage by the rule set used for the fourum. By hands tied behind by back because I can't use the red as needed.

[Smeckledorf]

Slightly off-topic here but am I the only one who cannot read any form of Japanese and as such would not be able to read episode 5?

[Ithekro]

We have partial (rough) translations to go off of already. Enough to get at least a good look at the red...and blue texts.

[ijriims]

Cloning technology existed at least from 1963, but it was on a carp, not human...

Cloning will sound almost magic in Umineko, unacceptable. Though I will accept Battler as the son of Kinzo and 1967 Beatrice through in vitro fertilisation. If Kinzo does refrigerate Beatrice's egg and that 1967 Beatrice was Kinzo and 1952 Beatrice's daughter. Then Battler was indeed Kinzo's "grandson" in one sense.

In world's history, in vitro fertilisation was first reported in 1973, compared to Battler was born in 1968, still a five-year gap existed. Though it was not as far-fetched as cloning IMO.

Previously I had some crazy idea that Rokkenjima was a secret research instituition and secret treasury founded by Japan government before the WWII, latter it became defunct as Japan lost the war, but the gold and many facilities still left on the island. The Rokkenjima was not known to US as a research base since people who knew about it were either executed or perished after the war, but Kinzo somehow knew it (through whatever special relationship he had) and found the gold himself. He then used the gold as collateral to borrow further money and made even greater fortune during the Korean War. He latter built his home on the next end of the island to hide the secret base (九羽鳥庵, I don't know the English translation, it is where the 1976 Beatrice was hiding in). He was using the facilities in the base to help "resurrect" Beatrice but to no avail, but I think the in vitro fertilization could be done. (I believed Kinzo employed both magic and science to help resurrect Beatrice, probably he was hoping to do cloning if he had some remains of secret-wife Beatrice like a flock of hair, but due to the techonological constraint, he could not perform it yet before he died.) The mysterious weapon employed in blasting off half of the brain may be prototype of some advanced weapons developed in that base. (It meant someone has already found the gold before the incident? Possibly so, as we saw 3 gold bars in EP2.)

Outrageous, isn't it? But when you consider a secret research facility under the clinic in Higurashi... Still working for a more sounding and comprehensive theory, to fill up the small details...

[Smeckledorf]

I do not want to spoil it, I'll just wait.
The loans could have been said to require gold since he gave that ingot out to someone to guarantee he had collateral.

Edit:

Originally Posted by ijriims

Cloning technology existed at least from 1963, but it was on a carp, not human...

Cloning will sound almost magic in Umineko, unacceptable. Though I will accept Battler as the son of Kinzo and 1967 Beatrice through in vitro fertilisation. If Kinzo does refrigerate Beatrice's egg and that 1967 Beatrice was Kinzo and 1952 Beatrice's daughter. Then Battler was indeed Kinzo's "grandson" in one sense.

In world's history, in vitro fertilisation was first reported in 1973, compared to Battler was born in 1968, still a five-year gap existed. Though it was not as far-fetched as cloning IMO.

Previously I had some crazy idea that Rokkenjima was a secret research instituition and secret treasury founded by Japan government before the WWII, latter it became defunct as Japan lost the war, but the gold and many material still left on the island. The Rokkenjima was not known to US as research base as people who knew about it were either executed or perished after the war, but Kinzo somehow knew it (through whatever special relationship he had) and found the gold himself. He latter built his home on the next end of the island to hide the secret base (九羽鳥庵, I don't know the English translation, it is where the 1976 Beatrice was hiding in). He was using the facilities in the base to help "resurrect" Beatrice but to no avail, but I think the in vitro fertilization could be done. (I believed Kinzo employed both magic and science to help resurrect Beatrice, probably he was hoping to do cloning if he had some remains of secret-wife Beatrice like a flock of hair, but due to the techonological constraint, he could not perform it yet before he died.) The mysterious weapon employed in blasting off half of the brain may be prototype of some advanced weapons developed in that base. (It meant someone has already found the gold before the incident? Possibly so, as we saw 3 gold bars in EP2.)

Outrageous, isn't it? But when you consider a secret research facility under the clinic in Higurashi... Still working for a more sounding and comprehensive theory, to fill up the small details...

What you accept is hardly the point lol. Anyways, your theory sounds possible but when I think about it I don't think Kinzo would have predicted Beatrice dying like she did so I don't know about the chance he had a frozen egg from her. However, I cannot say that he probably would not have done that just in case Beatrice would not bear his next child.
I know Kinzo might be pretty sick but I don't know about incest sick. So, barring the incest I would think your theory makes sense. I also don't know if the 1952 Beatrice is real. If I recall correctly, her existence was not stated in red.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Smeckledorf

What you accept is hardly the point lol. Anyways, your theory sounds possible but when I think about it I don't think Kinzo would have predicted Beatrice dying like she did so I don't know about the chance he had a frozen egg from her. However, I cannot say that he probably would not have done that just in case Beatrice would not bear his next child.
I know Kinzo might be pretty sick but I don't know about incest sick. So, barring the incest I would think your theory makes sense. I also don't know if the 1952 Beatrice is real. If I recall correctly, her existence was not stated in red.

Battler as a product of in vitro fertilization is separate from Rokkenjima being a secret base, I listed out the latter to provide justification of the former only. But they can be two independent theories.

Personally, I don't think Battler would be cliff-falling Beatrice's biological son (though the timing of that cliff-falling Beatrice's death makes sense, the logic may be that since Kinzo cannot resurrect 1952 Beatrice and cliff-falling Beatrice, then he is going to produce one by infusing his sperm with refrigerated eggs. The reason behind refrigerating cliff-falling Beatrice's egg is hoping for backward engineer 1952 Beatrice's genes, maybe. Probably saving more copies of 1952 Beatrice's gene when cliff-falling Beatrice has half of her gene.). I would rather say Battler as Kyrie's son.

Rokkenjima as secret base is just a theory to account for how Kinzo gets the gold and how powerful weapons can come up in the game. When I read EP4, I once thought that Beatrice was a computer system (like those omnipresent computer systems in sci-fi) that decided to cooperate with Maria to massacre all people on the island (Beatrice is an AI computer!!), thus explaining how Battler died in the end of EP4... even crazier than Battler as a test-tube baby... I threw it out of my window long time ago.

[Ithekro]

BEATRICE: Hello. Maria. I. Am. Beatrice. What. Would. You. Like. To. Do. Today.

Maria: Lets kill them all.

BEATRICE: Processing. Program. Kinzo. Four. In. Progress.



Um...no. As much as I find that amusing.

[Smeckledorf]

Anyone ever think deeply about Kinzo starting each game dead? Why would Krauss not announce this seeing as he would be the next to inherit the headship, if no one solved the epitaph that is. What if Krauss killed Kinzo? He could not have the body be investigated or the crime would be pinned on him. This would explain the money given to Nanjo, Kumasawa, and Rudolph. Though, I would have to question why Rudolph would be asking for more money with the siblings if he knew he could blackmail Krauss but then again Rudolph knew he was going to die in world 1.
Let's say that someone discovered this extortion and started killing the inhabitants on the island, this would explain the pin number on the wall in world 3. Of course, the red truth contradicts my claim unless any of you think you can tie Battler in on this. I just don't see Rudolph having money problems if he has the head of the Ushiromiya family blackmailed so I don't see how this could have happened 6 years ago. Actually, I can't see why Kumasawa wouldn't have quit if she was able to blackmail Krauss.
I guess this theory was doomed to begin with, I just think Battler's sin and Kinzo starting each game dead is an awfully big coincidence. I will see if I can think of anything by tomorrow.

[Ithekro]

Perhaps Krauss thought the family would think he killed Kinzo and is hiding it? This would be something if he "just" died, like the day before the conference. Also Krauss doesn't seem to know where the gold is...so even if he is the new head...money where?

Rudolf could be Blackmailing, but it is harder to get money out of someone if they don't have the money...or gold.

As for six years ago. We have no knowledge that is connects to Kinzo. It is suggested it relates to Asumu, Kyrie and maybe Rudolf...maybe even Ange. But is isn't suppose to relate to his immediate family...so that leaves either it relating to one of his cousins...a servant...and perhaps someone else in the extended family (Kyrie's family for example). How a sin cause directly ot iindirectly could lead to people dying...I cannot say. Saying would know. Since I do not know...so cannot say.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Smeckledorf

Anyone ever think deeply about Kinzo starting each game dead? Why would Krauss not announce this seeing as he would be the next to inherit the headship, if no one solved the epitaph that is. What if Krauss killed Kinzo? He could not have the body be investigated or the crime would be pinned on him. This would explain the money given to Nanjo, Kumasawa, and Rudolph. Though, I would have to question why Rudolph would be asking for more money with the siblings if he knew he could blackmail Krauss but then again Rudolph knew he was going to die in world 1.
Let's say that someone discovered this extortion and started killing the inhabitants on the island, this would explain the pin number on the wall in world

I remember in EP1, the siblings accused Krauss for embezzling money from Kinzo's account. The announcement of Kinzo's death would necessitate the division of fortune among siblings and the transpiring of the embezzlement. Krauss delayed the announcement in hope of earning back what he lost to cover up the embezzlement. The siblings knew that there would not be too much currency in Krauss's account, but they were attempting to sqeeze as much as they could. The trade of the siblings was to receive 750 million yens from Krauss and turned a blind eye to whatever Krauss was hiding.

The self-prophecy of death by Rudolf pointed to either these two things: he knew someone was plannnig to kill him, or he wanted Battler to believe that he died in the first twilight by foretelling it. Which one do you prefer? Or neither?

[Jan-Poo]

Neither. Rudolf wasn't talking seriously. "kill" is often used in a metaphorical way. Actually in the common language nowadays it is used more with that meaning than the actual meaning. This also works with japanese.

[ijriims]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

Neither. Rudolf wasn't talking seriously. "kill" is often used in a metaphorical way. Actually in the common language nowadays it is used more with that meaning than the actual meaning. This also works with japanese.

He was telling a joke in that situation? Or I should say Ryukishi07 wrote a useless line he knows because every Japanese knows it meant nothing?

Considering the context, I inclined to believe he meant it, at least Rudolf meant something serious.

Of course you can be right. Then what was Rudolf's intention of saying that in your opinion?