2010-04-28, 02:29 | Link #9381 | |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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or that Kanon is the culprit because he's the hanged man?
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2010-04-28, 02:31 | Link #9382 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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Genji, Kumasawa, Nanjo Shannon Kanon George Maria Jessica Rudolf Kyrie I guess the only one I don't feel the need to be innocent is Gouda and Hideyoshi, both of which have not really that much character development. But I doubt I can construct the answer with just Hideyoshi. So, I'm naming names, ignoring my feeling that they *should* be innocent. I feel pretty much the same as Battler was feeling... (Except George is getting suspicious after all we've discussed about him...) By the way, I understood Hempel's Raven but I thought I was stupid or something not understanding Beatrice's explanation. 8) Thanks for making me feel normal again. EDIT: I think Oliver is saying that as we eliminate suspects, we'll end up with someone we thought should've been innocent? |
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2010-04-28, 02:36 | Link #9383 |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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But the surprise for the prisoner was about him being hanged so isn't the surprise a bad thing? In other words when it's finally revealed the culprit isn't who you suspect that's the surprise if your reasoning is wrong right?
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2010-04-28, 02:49 | Link #9384 | ||
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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It is therefore very likely that every episode features more than one culprit. They either have to all be innocent of murder and it's all a giant magic trick, or many of them have to be guilty at the same time. That's the only practical way to keep the surprise up while we're working with single culprit theories because this way no single elimination will remove the surprise in the end.
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2010-04-28, 02:49 | Link #9385 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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In terms of 'proof' for a detective novel, we will never be able to come up with and solve using proofs. This is because what is presented are clues, rather than proofs and sometimes evidence. I'm putting forth the idea that when Ryukishi gives us an 'answer' he gives us 'evidence.' Evidence like the word 'explosion' in Erika's tips or evidence like the statement that 'everyone choose a room to lie down in.' in EP6. But before we are given this evidence/answer, what are we given? I'm thinking we are only given 'clues.' Clues like, Ange not being able to find the dock or the remains of the house. Or clues like the Battler saying 'murder means it wasn't a closed room.' And these clues are very easy to 'explain away.' I propose that if we are arguing away too many clues that our thought process is not proceeding down the correct path. If we take a case example, the 10th Twilight Explosion, we can see that the clues provided: - EP1 body parts were found rather than whole corpses - EP1 only Maria's jaw being found - EP2 Rosa feeling the need to get off the island no matter what on 10th Twilight - EP3 Eva surviving by being 2km away from the mansion - EP4 The murders being referred to as 'incident' and not 'murders' by police - EP4 Massive geological changes when Ange visits Now before the 'answer' was provided in EP6 these clues existed and maybe a lot of people agreed that it was possible... but no one took the clue and used it as a basis for other theories. There was a lot of arguing back and forth (and still was in the EP5 thread.) I don't remember what it was but there were a lot of arguments against the clues, especially the last two. Ok, after the 'answer' was provided, I think we've all come to think this is true. Certainly we're coming up with theories on the idea that it's a rigged explosion of some kind. Although not everyone's accepted it and still attempt to explain away the EP6 TIPs. (Not here though. Especially not after that Ryukishi interview.) So what I'm getting at is we'll never have proof. We can still argue away Ryukishi's blatant 'evidence' or 'answers' too. But if we start thinking once we have an 'answer' then really we'll have to be spoon-fed all the answers until the final answer is obvious. So, no, I think the only method we have if we want to get anywhere is to base our ideas off of clues. It will be like being presented with half-played chessboard and imagining up the entire tree of possible outcomes. Just food for thought. Not like I'm saying this will be easy though.. |
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2010-04-28, 03:02 | Link #9387 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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Notice that Battler never actually looks for a single culprit, and in his attacks against Beatrice always leaves the possibility of an undefined person doing it whenever possible. This is because he doesn't want to suspect anyone. However, if he suspects anyone, he would prefer it to be a single person -- sacrifice one to save everybody else from damnation, so to speak. This is why for every episode we end up with a 'most likely singular culprit' which is then exonerated or re-evaluated later or just dies early in the next episode. But murders still happen! I am not advocating completely abandoning the idea of slimming down suspects, but I am insisting that no single episode has all the murders committed by one singular person or even faction, and so far, most of our theories concentrate on only exposing a single one, even when we're assuming more than one is present. That would be the best way to surprise the most of us while we're trying to save the most people by sacrificing one, like Battler does. Considering that Umineko pretty much uses the list of Van Dine 'thou shalt not' rules as a checklist of cool things to try, oh yes I wouldn't put it past Ryukishi.
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2010-04-28, 03:02 | Link #9388 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Sep 2007
Location: Buffer overflow
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Some of these are some of her hardest mysteries to solve, even though the 'answer' is the most obvious.
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2010-04-28, 03:10 | Link #9389 | |
Maelstorm-Fenrir
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2010-04-28, 03:13 | Link #9390 | |
Mystery buff
Join Date: Jan 2010
Location: Gone Fishin!
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I got that idea from this post here http://forums.animesuki.com/showpost...postcount=1821 Anyway I've been thinking that the people in different factions may be chosen at random or that the leaders of the factions are different in every episode and they choose different people to join their group. That's a good way to use the Roulette idea. A different faction leader in every episode would explain a lot of things. For example if Hideyoshi or Kyrie were one of the leaders of the faction in episode 4 that frames people in all the episodes it would explain why Kinzo was framed in episode 4. If Jessica was the culprit in both episode 1 and 5 Natsuhi being framed could be explained.
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2010-04-28, 03:18 | Link #9391 | |
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Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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I'm looking for ways to solve it before we come to the end. In some ways we are late already as we've been given two episodes with answers already... 8) |
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2010-04-28, 03:21 | Link #9392 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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So this idea that even the factions, the leaders and who they may be recruiting will rotate is a good idea. EDIT: I remember talking about this idea before. I was calling Umineko a result of Faction Wars... |
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2010-04-28, 03:23 | Link #9393 | |
Back off, I'm a scientist
Join Date: Apr 2010
Location: In a badly written story.
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By the time 5th rolls in, some of them are shelved away, because other actions make them impossible -- people die and can't follow up, crucial accomplices die so plans become unfeasible, people learn new information, motives become more or less appealing due to that information -- and several play out simultaneously. Sometimes it results in a different person doing something in each episode, and no single person or faction committing all the crimes within the space of one episode. Somehow all those plans by seemingly unrelated groups have a singular root, which is Ryukishi's excuse for saying we can actually uncover all of them if we find it.
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2010-04-28, 03:25 | Link #9394 | |
Maelstorm-Fenrir
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2010-04-28, 03:28 | Link #9396 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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Could running away from his responsibilities to someone like Kinzo be the cause for anything? Responsibilities to Shannon? Battler got more than one of the girls and women pregnant at the bright early age of 12! He takes too much after Rudolf. This is why at least two aunts like him. Although technically the women wouldn't really 'like' him if he did. Battler's sin of 6 years ago and a broken promise to 'Beatrice.' Looks like both threads arrived at this point. 8) |
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2010-04-28, 03:31 | Link #9398 | ||
Homo Ludens
Join Date: Nov 2007
Location: Canada
Age: 34
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Who's the most obvious person in Umineko? Quote:
Last edited by Tyabann; 2010-04-28 at 04:06. |
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2010-04-28, 03:34 | Link #9399 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: May 2007
Location: Meta-Meta-Meta-Space
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At least in EP1, it's most likely him still sneaking around. EP3 he probably did kill Nanjo and led Jessica away. EP4 he may have gotten killed early. You know what, maybe we weren't supposed to make any sense of EP4. Maybe it was the episode that showed us that none of the sequence of the events matter on the gameboard; if you know which factions want to do what you'd know the order anyways. |
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