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Old 2018-10-22, 11:44   Link #1
monir
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US Midterm Election 2018

The purpose of this thread is to discuss the upcoming election to the best of our abilities. The following have couple of links to FiveThrityEight to show each parties chance at retaining or winning the House and the Senate:

House.........Senate

At the moment it appears the Republican Party should control senate while the Democratic Party retake the house. All indication are this cycle of midterm will be the most expensive ever in the history of the United States of America.


The above link breaks down the midterm with plenty of information to get you started.

Bloomberg also has a pessimst guide to 2018 for those whose depression level reaches critical mass as an election cycle for US approaches closer:

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/p...guide-to-2018/

It is hilariou.... I mean devastating.

Notes:---
  • If you are one of those folks that tend to lose yourself in an argument and then start going after people personally, then avoid this thread.
  • The thread will be closed in approximately three weeks after November 6, 2018.
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Old 2018-10-23, 09:33   Link #2
SeijiSensei
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I wrote this in August, but it's largely about fundamentals that aren't subject to events.

http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/...n-in-pictures/

Here's an example, the relationship between net Republican retirements from the House and the net Republican margin in seats won.

Images
for size
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Net Republican retirements reached 22 this year, more than in any other midterm since the New Deal. Since incumbents win over 90 percent of their races, creating a bunch of open Republican seats is a boon to the Democrats. That simple relationship predicts a Republican loss of 39 seats, sixteen more than the 23 needed to flip the House. Coincidentally, the current model at FiveThirtyEight also has a median prediction of D+39 seats.

Races for governor don't get nearly the amount of play as the elections for House and Senate do. However this year those gubernatorial elections have a special importance. In 34 states, voters will be choosing the governor who will have the power to veto redistricting plans proposed by their state legislatures after the 2020 Census. The wave of Republican "trifectas" created in 2010, where Republicans won the governorship and both houses of the state legislature, enabled them to draw favorable district lines that will persist until 2022. This time around, Democratic candidates are leading in a number of key states like Florida and Michigan. Should they win, Republican state legislatures will need to compromise on redistricting plans. I estimate that redistricting for some 190 seats is at stake this year.

http://www.politicsbythenumbers.org/...nders-in-2021/

Last edited by SeijiSensei; 2018-10-23 at 09:48.
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Old 2018-10-24, 13:12   Link #3
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Is there anything he would not do to win an election? If there is anyone who deserves to lose an election then no one is better suited than Ted'. The second in line would be the other hypocrite in West Virginia who is running as Democrat. Mind you it was his daughter who raised the price of Epinephrine by several hundred percent while she was the CEO.
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Old 2018-10-24, 15:24   Link #4
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I don't know if this is the right place to talk about it or not, but I can say this is now political terrorism, pure and simple.

Should the US somehow get out of this mess in the next 2 or 3 years without too many casualties, I say the next administration needs to redeploy counter-terrorism resources away from the oversaturated surveillance on foreign groups so they can use their expertise against domestic terrorism.

Last edited by Toukairin; 2018-10-24 at 15:34.
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Old 2018-10-24, 20:14   Link #5
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I bet some people consider this the moral equivalence of heckling politicians in restaurants

I won't even blame fringe websites for this.
Fox News have been saying crap about Soros and Obama for years.
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Old 2018-10-24, 20:15   Link #6
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It's not related to the election directly, but I'm okay with some discussion about it for now because it probably will have an impact given that the election is so close.

And yes, it should be labeled as terrorism and assassination attempts. I hope they catch the culprit(s) quickly.
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Old 2018-10-24, 21:37   Link #7
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The Florida Governor debate was very spicy. My personal favorite moment was when Gillum talking about if he thought DeSantis was a racist: "I'm not calling Mr. DeSantis a racist. I'm saying the racists believe he's a racist."
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Old 2018-10-25, 03:58   Link #8
ganbaru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Key Board View Post
I won't even blame fringe websites for this.
Fox News have been saying crap about Soros and Obama for years.
Some of those sites already called this a false flag operation from the democrate for getting their supportors out at hte midterm elections.


One thing surprised me though, of all the ''enemies of the president'' neither MSNBC nor Robert Muller got targeted, maybe because they don't get called by name as often as the others ?
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Old 2018-10-27, 05:36   Link #9
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Considering how toxic and heavy on the personal attacks US politics has got in recent years, a violent crazy turning up was always going to be a sad possibility. I'm just glad no one been hurt.
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Old 2018-10-27, 13:01   Link #10
ganbaru
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DracoS View Post
Considering how toxic and heavy on the personal attacks US politics has got in recent years, a violent crazy turning up was always going to be a sad possibility. I'm just glad no one been hurt.
It's the biggest example but not the only one, previously a republican and a democrate had been shot in separated incidents.
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Old 2018-10-28, 13:35   Link #11
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There's no way it will go down

Trump continuously encourages violence against his critics
Trump's response to this is "I Think I've Been Toned Down... I Could Really Tone It Up"

Robert Bowers was actually upset because Trump wasn't racist enough
but why do you think he had any expectations for Trump to begin with?
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Old 2018-10-29, 05:24   Link #12
GreyZone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Key Board View Post
There's no way it will go down

Trump continuously encourages violence against his critics
Trump's response to this is "I Think I've Been Toned Down... I Could Really Tone It Up"

Robert Bowers was actually upset because Trump wasn't racist enough
but why do you think he had any expectations for Trump to begin with?
Sure, oh how terrible this is

I remember when Trump Jr. and others received suspicious white powder by mail, the same people who are outraged by the fake bomb right now where like "haha, this fascist's son deserves this!" and such.

Or what about Scalise? Someone from the Republican side was actually SHOT, by someone from the Democratic side, but was it politicized? No. But now Democrats are politicizing anything and everything, while Maxine Waters encourages the forming of mobs, which is totally OK, appearently.

But sure, Trump's rhetoric is oh so bad escpacially since people are actually not talking about Trump's recent rhetoric, but are rather going back fishing for stuff he said back in 2015/2016 during the campaign.


And since when do we use criminals as the basis for evaluating politicians?
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Old 2018-10-29, 08:28   Link #13
monir
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The following is an ad sponsored by GOP Superpac which aired in Minnesota's first district where the GOP feels the current House seat held byDan Feehan, a Democrat, is vulnerable.

YouTube
Sorry; dynamic content not loaded. Reload?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
Sure, oh how terrible this is

I remember when Trump Jr. and others received suspicious white powder by mail, the same people who are outraged by the fake bomb right now where like "haha, this fascist's son deserves this!" and such.

Or what about Scalise? Someone from the Republican side was actually SHOT, by someone from the Democratic side, but was it politicized? No. But now Democrats are politicizing anything and everything, while Maxine Waters encourages the forming of mobs, which is totally OK, appearently.

But sure, Trump's rhetoric is oh so bad escpacially since people are actually not talking about Trump's recent rhetoric, but are rather going back fishing for stuff he said back in 2015/2016 during the campaign.


And since when do we use criminals as the basis for evaluating politicians?
i know, right? Roll eyes... I mean...

Aren't you the resident fiscally-conservative guy of this forum? I wanted to ask you about what you thought about the budget passed by GOP congress after raising the debt ceiling and then passing a tax cut that added 1.2 trillion a year in deficit spending. But you disappeared from the other US Politics thread and asking this question in this thread would be off-topic, now wouldn't it? Oh well........
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Old 2018-10-29, 09:53   Link #14
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The GOP must be so relieved to know that the caravan will arrive at the US border right around Nov 6th. After all, nothing is more energizing to the right than a good dose of fear.
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Old 2018-10-29, 11:54   Link #15
Sheba
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monir View Post

Aren't you the resident fiscally-conservative guy of this forum? I wanted to ask you about what you thought about the budget passed by GOP congress after raising the debt ceiling and then passing a tax cut that added 1.2 trillion a year in deficit spending. But you disappeared from the other US Politics thread and asking this question in this thread would be off-topic, now wouldn't it? Oh well........
you may talk about frivolity, who defended everything conservative on the financial front, and voiced his dislike of minimal wages, not to mention his comparisons of European-style health systems to a ponzi scheme.
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Old 2018-10-29, 17:11   Link #16
GreyZone
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Quote:
Originally Posted by monir View Post
[...]
i know, right? Roll eyes... I mean...

Aren't you the resident fiscally-conservative guy of this forum? I wanted to ask you about what you thought about the budget passed by GOP congress after raising the debt ceiling and then passing a tax cut that added 1.2 trillion a year in deficit spending. But you disappeared from the other US Politics thread and asking this question in this thread would be off-topic, now wouldn't it? Oh well........
As Sheba said, you got the wrong guy. I don't dare engage in such arm-chair economic theorizing. In the first place political arguments that involve economics as opposing viewpoints are pretty much always a waste of time because people will use different reference data (e.g. GDP vs unemployment numbers, etc.) and always claim that their own ones are the "only real relevant ones", while the opposition's are not. I swear, EVERY. SINGLE. ONE. I have seen end up like that. It's just a complete and utter waste of time.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sugetsu View Post
The GOP must be so relieved to know that the caravan will arrive at the US border right around Nov 6th. After all, nothing is more energizing to the right than a good dose of fear.
You aren't implying that that's an exclusive trait of the GOP, right? I mean is there even a single instance of Trump not being framed as an object of fear, as the "russian puppet president who will eventually sell the whole country to Russia" or the "guy with the loose finger on the nuclear button that will unleash armageddon on the world someday"? Various other scenarios of Trump one day supposdly waking up and deciding to randomly overthrow the state in favor of dictatorship are also presented constantly.

IMO just the complete misuse of "fascist" without including any examples of power centralisation is already far too much.

Mid-terms in many areas are often the same "fear-of-Trump" messages, just with a "...if Republicans keep the house" attached to it.


Now to be fair, the up-side for Democrats in comparison to 2016 is that their candidates simply aren't Hillary Clinton, but also that at least a part of them actually has their own message instead of re-parrotting the overused phrases like "I am not my opponent, who is a Republican and will help fascist Trump do fascisty things", so I am not sure what the outcome is going to be. The current common prediction is that the GOP expands Senate again to more comfortable lead, while they'll narrowly lose control of the house to the Democrats, but it's fairly close, so who knows.

In turn Republicans profit from the fact that it's a mass election. Democrats' cooperation with the majority of the Mainstream Media allow them to do easy individual character assassination, but it gets difficult to make it believable if during this election 4 or more women all of a sudden "remember" a previously unknown rape attempt from 30+ years ago, so the Republicans will probably be mostly safe from that and other forms of single-target character assassinations.
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Old 2018-10-29, 17:18   Link #17
Eisdrache
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Oh for f sake do not remind me of that idiotic conversation with frivolity.

As for Trump's rhetoric, I imagine you wanted to make a point in his defense but 'the other side allegedly did similar things so if we do them now then it's less bad' isn't exactly a convincing argument. It's not like he only said them during his campaign, being in office didn't stop him in the slightest, if anything it emboldened him. Furthermore when the president incites them it's slightly more disturbing although the title has long since lost every shred of decency anyway.

Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
In turn Republicans profit from the fact that it's a mass election. Democrats' cooperation with the majority of the Mainstream Media allow them to do easy individual character assassination, but it gets difficult to make it believable if during this election 4 or more women all of a sudden "remember" a previously unknown rape attempt from 30+ years ago, so the Republicans will probably be mostly safe from that and other forms of single-target character assassinations.
Calling the entire #metoo movement a 'character assassination', way to go.

Last edited by Eisdrache; 2018-10-29 at 17:32.
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Old 2018-10-29, 17:20   Link #18
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Quote:
Originally Posted by GreyZone View Post
Sure, oh how terrible this is

I remember when Trump Jr. and others received suspicious white powder by mail, the same people who are outraged by the fake bomb right now where like "haha, this fascist's son deserves this!" and such.
Pretty sure that's wrong.

Quote:
Or what about Scalise? Someone from the Republican side was actually SHOT, by someone from the Democratic side, but was it politicized? No.
Also wrong. Republicans tried, but failed because the Democrats immediately condemned it.

Quote:
But sure, Trump's rhetoric is oh so bad escpacially since people are actually not talking about Trump's recent rhetoric, but are rather going back fishing for stuff he said back in 2015/2016 during the campaign.
More like stuff he said a week before. And hours after.

Quote:
Originally Posted by monir View Post
Aren't you the resident fiscally-conservative guy of this forum? I wanted to ask you about what you thought about the budget passed by GOP congress after raising the debt ceiling and then passing a tax cut that added 1.2 trillion a year in deficit spending. But you disappeared from the other US Politics thread and asking this question in this thread would be off-topic, now wouldn't it? Oh well........
Pretty sure he's the resident foreign right-winger. He couldn't care less what the US does with its budget. Though I do admit I may be confusing him with one of the other extremely vocal and disparaging right-wingers that also only show up near elections.
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Old 2018-10-29, 17:23   Link #19
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Solace View Post
It's not related to the election directly, but I'm okay with some discussion about it for now because it probably will have an impact given that the election is so close.

And yes, it should be labeled as terrorism and assassination attempts. I hope they catch the culprit(s) quickly.
The general feeling around where I live and work has been "meh" about the whole thing. No one outside the media seems to talk about it much at all, and no one seems to really care either. Its only brought up at all when its on the news at that moment. After that, everyone returns to their own problems without a second glance.

Maybe we are over saturated over the last two or more administrations. We've kind of stopped caring what happens to the politician and bureaucrats themselves.

Maybe its a function of how people get information and how they tend to screen every call these days so that the sales calls and political calls, just don't reach people anymore (because we are sick of them really). And that might effect elections simply because people are a mix of apathetic and miffed at the government. They both don't really want to go vote, but also want to stick it to government for just being annoying.
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Old 2018-10-29, 18:45   Link #20
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Whoops, I forgot for a moment that the politics section on this forum has pretty much become an echo-chamber for over a year now. I have no interest to argue alone against 10 people, so I'll leave it with that. I mean it's not like anyone here is at fault, it's just that any center with slightly right leanings up to full on right positions have either quit the politics section here, or stopped being active on this forum alltogether.

Still it's not an isolated issue. Actual political forums actually make AnimeSuki look really good in comparison, with all much worse echo-chambers than AS and ironically the only forum that is both balanced and where political discussion across divides without instant name-calling seems somewhat possible, is another anime forum that I am not going to name here, because I am sure that I would break a rule by doing so.
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