20131123, 02:15  Link #1881  
NOM.
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Singapore
Age: 27

Quote:
Problem with my formula is, I typed everything on Microsoft Word 2010 by inserting equations everywhere so everything looked neater, but the formatting's not going to work here. Is there anywhere I can upload my workings? Word or PDF is fine. But for now, I'll post the final results I got: For a given match, let the predicted voter numbers for the 2 characters to be x and y respectively. Let the fluctuations be +Δx and Δy respectively. Then, we have actual vote numbers as x + ∆x and y  ∆y respectively. The fluctuation percentages are (∆x/x)*100% = x'% and (∆y/y)*100% = y'% respectively. We now let x'' = x'/100 = ∆x/x and y'' = y'/100 = ∆y/y respectively. Let the predicted vote percentages be [x/(x+y)]*100% = X% and [y/(x+y)]*100% = Y% respectively. Again, x/(x+y) = X/100 = X' and y/(x+y) = Y/100 = Y'. Let the difference between predicted and actual be Z% such that the actual percentages are (X+Z)% and (Y+Z)% respectively. Finally, we let Z/100 = Z'. We note that for each specific match, x, y, X, Y, Z, X', Y' and Z' are constants, whereas x', y', x'' and y'' are not. (Tip: things are easier to calculate once you realise that x+y = total number of votes.) General formula: {[Z(x+y)^2]/xy}% = {[y  Z'(x+y)]/y}x'% + {[x + Z'(x+y)]/x}y'% Special case 1 (Fluctuations of the same magnitude in opposite directions; the smallest possible fluctuations i.e. x' = y'): x'% = y'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/(2xy/Z' + y^2  x^2)}% Special case 2 (Only x fluctuates i.e. y' = 0): x'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/x[y/Z'  (x+y)]}% Special case 3 (Only y fluctuates i.e. x' = 0): y'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/y[x/Z' + (x+y)]}% I must say, things would have been much easier if it was possible to include absolute numbers of voters as well... but that is too much to ask for, isn't it? On another note: my exam went without a hitch — albeit only just. Finished the last question with 30 seconds to spare. I'll see if I can do anything about the hybrid SDOVD/VF system I talked about earlier.
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20131123, 04:51  Link #1882 
ISML Technical Staff
Graphic Designer

We will be hosting a VN tournament in 2014, so please nominate now in ISML Forums.
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20131123, 13:35  Link #1884 
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 50

Anyway, I really think we should consider using absolute value instead of percentages for over/under in the Vegas Fantasy. Please tell me how you feel about this, Team Rocket Elite and RegalStar.
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20131123, 14:52  Link #1885 
Mishagujisama
Join Date: Oct 2010

Absolute vote number is dependent on absolute number of people who vote, which is a factor that's affected by so many random things (interesting match present, school, holidays, ISP going down due to a fire, large group of Taiwanese schoolgirls suddenly showing up for one match then disappearing in the next, natural disasters, what you have) that it's effectively impossible to perdict.

20131123, 15:42  Link #1886  
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 50

Quote:
Also, no matter how the number was predicted, if the prediction was made before the actual event, and it is over the actual number 40 ~ 60% of the times, then it can be used as a baseline for analysis, provided that sample we are analyzing is of sufficient size. This means that while you can't use this number to ask why Emerald Round 7's XXX's vote is under the predicted, you can use these numbers to ask why XXX's vote was usually below the predicted for the entire Emerald Necklace Period. The hope here is that, if you have sufficient large number of control sample and sufficiently large number of cases within data sample you wish to analyze, all the factors you didn't account for, can't control, or randomly changes will cancel each other out. We can even decide whether such analysis is possible or not if (1) TRE is willing to give us absolute number predictions, and (2) We do this for the entire 35 rounds of Regular season and then look at the mean, median, STDEV, 10th percentile, and 90th percentile value of actual  predicted values. If STDEV is large, mean very far away from median, or one of the percentile values be far off from what you guess based on mean and STDEV values, then indeed, it would be better to not to do any further analysis based on these predicted values. If STDEV value is small compared to mean and median ( both of which needs to be close to each other ), and guess of 10th percentile and 90th percentile values based on the mean and STDEV values is close to the actual percentile values, then we can safely decide the these predicted values are useable, and do further analysis based upon it.
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20131123, 18:05  Link #1887  
NOM.
Join Date: May 2013
Location: Singapore
Age: 27

Quote:
As for Δx and Δy, that's what I'm calculating in the first place (or at least, a form of it; x'% = (∆x/x)*100% and y'% = (∆y/y)*100%). But I can't give details on my workings unless I have someplace to upload them to. Does the ISML site have such a place?
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20131124, 10:16  Link #1889 
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2012

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20131124, 10:44  Link #1890 
Senior Member
Join Date: Jul 2009

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20131124, 10:51  Link #1891 
Mishagujisama
Join Date: Oct 2010

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ARENA 02: [Yagami Light] Uchiha Itachi ARENA 03: [Kyon] Itsuka Shidō ARENA 04: [Edward Elric] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: L Lawliet [Sakata Gintoki] ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Takasu Ryūji] ARENA 07: Levi [Abstained] Heiwajima Shizuo ARENA 08: [Usui Takumi] Accelerator ARENA 09: [Patchouli Knowledge] Alice Margatroid ARENA 10: Hinanawi Tenshi [Flandre Scarlet] ARENA 11: [Fujiwara no Mokō] Konpaku Yōmu ARENA 12: [Yakumo Yukari] Ibaraki Kasen ARENA 13: Akatsuki Fino Bloodstone [Koto] ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki Rachel Alucard [Mankanshoku Mako] ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree 
20131124, 10:52  Link #1892 
Senior Member
Join Date: Nov 2009

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20131124, 10:59  Link #1893 
He Without a Title
Join Date: Feb 2008
Location: The land of tempura

Damn it, that Arena 13 was brutal for me. Mitsuki to me steals every scene she's in and Rachel is a favourite of mine in the BlazBlue games but Mako is Mako. Can't escape Mako la Mako
Spoiler for votes:
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20131124, 11:46  Link #1894 
┌(^o^)┘モリ!┌(^o^)┘モリ!
Join Date: Sep 2010

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20131124, 11:50  Link #1895 
♪~Deculture~♪ (✿◠‿◠)
Join Date: Dec 2010
Location: Various Pocket Dimensions
Age: 26

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20131124, 12:32  Link #1896 
I desire Tomorrow!
Join Date: Dec 2005
Location: As far away from reality as possible
Age: 38

ARENA 01: Gilgamesh [Abstained] Orihara Izaya
ARENA 02: Yagami Light [Abstained] Uchiha Itachi ARENA 03: Kyon [Itsuka Shidō] ARENA 04: Edward Elric [Abstained] Nanase Haruka ARENA 05: [L Lawliet] Sakata Gintoki ARENA 06: Sakamaki Izayoi [Abstained] Takasu Ryūji ARENA 07: [Levi] Heiwajima Shizuo ARENA 08: Usui Takumi [Abstained] Accelerator ARENA 09: Patchouli Knowledge [Alice Margatroid] ARENA 10: [Hinanawi Tenshi] Flandre Scarlet ARENA 11: Fujiwara no Mokō [Konpaku Yōmu] ARENA 12: Yakumo Yukari [Ibaraki Kasen] ARENA 13: Akatsuki [Fino Bloodstone] Koto ARENA 14: Nase Mitsuki [Rachel Alucard] Mankanshoku Mako ARENA 15: Naruse Ibara [Matsumae Ohana] Tōma Kazusa ARENA 16: [Miyauchi Renge] Charlotte Belew Celia Cumani Aintree Damn, seeing the first brackets made me want to abstain from the whole thing xP I didn't think I'll get enough votes. Thankfully the girls saved it. It's not like I didn't know who to pick, it's like I either didn't care for either or didn't like either of the options :P
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20131124, 12:40  Link #1897 
One PUNCH!
Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2005

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20131124, 13:48  Link #1898 
UNBOUNDed
Join Date: Jul 2007
Location: Oakland, CA
Age: 68

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20131124, 14:07  Link #1899 
失礼、噛みました
Join Date: Jul 2013

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20131124, 14:09  Link #1900  
失礼、噛みました
Join Date: Jul 2013

Quote:
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