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Old 2013-11-23, 02:15   Link #1881
iamadooddood
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Join Date: May 2013
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
After my exam tomorrow? I should be able to give a satisfactory answer by Friday night or Saturday morning. (And study for other exams after that; my exam schedule is ridiculous.)
I finished writing out the formula and all the workings half a day ago, and would have posted here much earlier if not for the fact that my laptop charger stopped working properly.

Problem with my formula is, I typed everything on Microsoft Word 2010 by inserting equations everywhere so everything looked neater, but the formatting's not going to work here. Is there anywhere I can upload my workings? Word or PDF is fine.


But for now, I'll post the final results I got:

For a given match, let the predicted voter numbers for the 2 characters to be x and y respectively. Let the fluctuations be +Δx and -Δy respectively. Then, we have actual vote numbers as x + ∆x and y - ∆y respectively. The fluctuation percentages are (∆x/x)*100% = x'% and (∆y/y)*100% = y'% respectively. We now let x'' = x'/100 = ∆x/x and y'' = y'/100 = ∆y/y respectively.

Let the predicted vote percentages be [x/(x+y)]*100% = X% and [y/(x+y)]*100% = Y% respectively. Again, x/(x+y) = X/100 = X' and y/(x+y) = Y/100 = Y'. Let the difference between predicted and actual be Z% such that the actual percentages are (X+Z)% and (Y+Z)% respectively. Finally, we let Z/100 = Z'.

We note that for each specific match, x, y, X, Y, Z, X', Y' and Z' are constants, whereas x', y', x'' and y'' are not. (Tip: things are easier to calculate once you realise that x+y = total number of votes.)

General formula: {[Z(x+y)^2]/xy}% = {[y - Z'(x+y)]/y}x'% + {[x + Z'(x+y)]/x}y'%

Special case 1 (Fluctuations of the same magnitude in opposite directions; the smallest possible fluctuations i.e. x' = y'): x'% = y'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/(2xy/Z' + y^2 - x^2)}%

Special case 2 (Only x fluctuates i.e. y' = 0): x'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/x[y/Z' - (x+y)]}%

Special case 3 (Only y fluctuates i.e. x' = 0): y'% = {[100(x+y)^2]/y[x/Z' + (x+y)]}%


I must say, things would have been much easier if it was possible to include absolute numbers of voters as well... but that is too much to ask for, isn't it?

On another note: my exam went without a hitch — albeit only just. Finished the last question with 30 seconds to spare.

I'll see if I can do anything about the hybrid SDO-VD/VF system I talked about earlier.
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Old 2013-11-23, 04:51   Link #1882
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Old 2013-11-23, 12:52   Link #1883
RegalStar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
equations
How are you going to obtain the initial values for x, y, Δx, Δy, and how are you going to adjust them?
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Old 2013-11-23, 13:35   Link #1884
wontaek
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Anyway, I really think we should consider using absolute value instead of percentages for over/under in the Vegas Fantasy. Please tell me how you feel about this, Team Rocket Elite and RegalStar.
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Old 2013-11-23, 14:52   Link #1885
RegalStar
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Absolute vote number is dependent on absolute number of people who vote, which is a factor that's affected by so many random things (interesting match present, school, holidays, ISP going down due to a fire, large group of Taiwanese schoolgirls suddenly showing up for one match then disappearing in the next, natural disasters, what you have) that it's effectively impossible to perdict.
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Old 2013-11-23, 15:42   Link #1886
wontaek
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RegalStar View Post
Absolute vote number is dependent on absolute number of people who vote, which is a factor that's affected by so many random things (interesting match present, school, holidays, ISP going down due to a fire, large group of Taiwanese schoolgirls suddenly showing up for one match then disappearing in the next, natural disasters, what you have) that it's effectively impossible to perdict.
I totally agree. Still, for the mere fantasy game purpose, if TRE can supply us with set of numbers that turned out to be over the actual number 40 ~ 60% of the times, that is a usable number no matter how he arrived at the numbers. For the fantasy game purpose, guesses based on intuition will suffice.

Also, no matter how the number was predicted, if the prediction was made before the actual event, and it is over the actual number 40 ~ 60% of the times, then it can be used as a baseline for analysis, provided that sample we are analyzing is of sufficient size. This means that while you can't use this number to ask why Emerald Round 7's XXX's vote is under the predicted, you can use these numbers to ask why XXX's vote was usually below the predicted for the entire Emerald Necklace Period. The hope here is that, if you have sufficient large number of control sample and sufficiently large number of cases within data sample you wish to analyze, all the factors you didn't account for, can't control, or randomly changes will cancel each other out.

We can even decide whether such analysis is possible or not if (1) TRE is willing to give us absolute number predictions, and (2) We do this for the entire 35 rounds of Regular season and then look at the mean, median, STDEV, 10th percentile, and 90th percentile value of actual - predicted values. If STDEV is large, mean very far away from median, or one of the percentile values be far off from what you guess based on mean and STDEV values, then indeed, it would be better to not to do any further analysis based on these predicted values. If STDEV value is small compared to mean and median ( both of which needs to be close to each other ), and guess of 10th percentile and 90th percentile values based on the mean and STDEV values is close to the actual percentile values, then we can safely decide the these predicted values are useable, and do further analysis based upon it.
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Old 2013-11-23, 18:05   Link #1887
iamadooddood
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Quote:
Originally Posted by RegalStar View Post
How are you going to obtain the initial values for x, y, Δx, Δy, and how are you going to adjust them?
Since this is for calculating the fluctuation rate, x and y are going to be the actual number of votes for each girl in a certain match.

As for Δx and Δy, that's what I'm calculating in the first place (or at least, a form of it; x'% = (∆x/x)*100% and y'% = (∆y/y)*100%). But I can't give details on my workings unless I have someplace to upload them to. Does the ISML site have such a place?
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Old 2013-11-23, 18:29   Link #1888
RegalStar
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
Since this is for calculating the fluctuation rate, x and y are going to be the actual number of votes for each girl in a certain match.
I thought they were supposed to be the perdicted VF of the two girls?
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Old 2013-11-24, 10:16   Link #1889
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Old 2013-11-24, 10:44   Link #1890
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Old 2013-11-24, 10:51   Link #1891
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Old 2013-11-24, 10:52   Link #1892
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Old 2013-11-24, 10:59   Link #1893
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Damn it, that Arena 13 was brutal for me. Mitsuki to me steals every scene she's in and Rachel is a favourite of mine in the BlazBlue games but Mako is Mako. Can't escape Mako la Mako

Spoiler for votes:
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Old 2013-11-24, 11:46   Link #1894
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Old 2013-11-24, 11:50   Link #1895
FlavoryFantasy
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Old 2013-11-24, 12:32   Link #1896
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Damn, seeing the first brackets made me want to abstain from the whole thing xP I didn't think I'll get enough votes. Thankfully the girls saved it. It's not like I didn't know who to pick, it's like I either didn't care for either or didn't like either of the options :P
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Old 2013-11-24, 12:40   Link #1897
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Old 2013-11-24, 13:48   Link #1898
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Old 2013-11-24, 14:07   Link #1899
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Old 2013-11-24, 14:09   Link #1900
KanbeKotori
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Quote:
Originally Posted by iamadooddood View Post
Since this is for calculating the fluctuation rate, x and y are going to be the actual number of votes for each girl in a certain match.

As for Δx and Δy, that's what I'm calculating in the first place (or at least, a form of it; x'% = (∆x/x)*100% and y'% = (∆y/y)*100%). But I can't give details on my workings unless I have someplace to upload them to. Does the ISML site have such a place?
Yes we have. Go make an account there. Find a suitable sub-section to post.
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