Russia invasion of Ukraine

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Renegade334

...And yes, I'm keenly aware of the concepts of "austerity" and "sobriety", but neither stopped the Russians from making 131 vehicles strut through Red Square with great fanfare, last year.

Ealier last year the Kremlin was still early enough into the war that they could still rather naively imagine this as "special military operation" that they could play as a police action that wouldn't require mobilization and wouldn't really be a real war. 2,000+ tanks and more than a hundred of thousand of KIA/WIA(or code 200/300 in local vernacular) latter and that's impossible to ignore, though I have to ask how much austerity and sobriety is involved with a *victory* parade involving thousands of people in the middle of an active war with no victories to celebrate.

I think part of the issue is that there are a lot of older Russians (including Vladimir Putin) who view victory day parade as a display of general Russian military strength and nostalgic call backs to Soviet Union by celebrating its greatest triumph the great patriotic war...despite baby boomer aged Russians not being alive to remember the terrifying collective struggle of WW2, and having no experience with a high intensity peer war where every modern weapon would be needed. From that view victory day is more about remembering the long gone Soviet Union than the victory over actual Nazism, and modern weapons are merely props for the marching band.

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarV...h_problems_at/

Can find "interesting" info on Luka before and after he came from Belarus. He didn't move around a lot. Used a golf cart to get around and left after the VD parade was finished.

[Yu Ominae]

https://nitter.hu/WarFrontline/statu...97347657080833

A Nitter (like Twitter) post reported that a Belarusian volunteer used his Russian language skills to trick Russian artillery units to strike on their own positions.

[Roger Rambo]

So air defense in Kyiv has been busy, including that new Patriot Battery. Over the last couple days, Russia has thrown dozens of ballistic and cruise missles at the city. Including 6 particularly hard to intercept Kinzhals. Ukraine MOD claims only one of the missles got through.

There's a tizzy with Russian MOD claiming that the intercepted Kinzhals wiped out the better part of the entire Patriot Battery on the first day of the strikes, with Ukraine and US officials claiming a few components of minorly damaged from fragmentation/debris and the battery was still functional. The latter seems more plausible given thexlack of clear visual evidence, and since the next day Ukrainian air defenses shot down 29 out of 30 missles that got launched at Kyiv.

[Renegade334]

According to unnamed US sources that talked to CNN and AFP, an "unknown projectile" landed near the battery, causing "minimal damage" to the trailer-mounted EPP-III power source and "part of the system's electronics", meaning either the AN/MSQ-104 Engagement Control Station (the shelter with manned stations, from which decisions are taken) or the OE-349 antenna mast (which wirelessly distributes data to all components of the battery).
The AN/MPQ-53 PESA radar was not hit and is still operational.
The damage is reportedly low enough that both components can be repaired on-site and do not require repatriation to the US for repairs.

Regardless of the respective claims by all sides, the Patriot seems to have fared quite well despite being a top-of-the-list target for the VKS and the resulting multi-type swarm/saturation attack (other SAM systems around Kyiv also contributed to its safety, by the way). That said...bloody hell, that 30-missile salvo price tag...

[Yu Ominae]

https://www.reddit.com/r/CombatFoota...one_strikes_on

SBU provided a compiled video of their drone strikes on various Russian vehicles in ambushes.

[Roger Rambo]

The White has indicated it would approve and help provide training with a multinational venture by the UK, Netherlands, Belgium and Denmark to get Ukraine supplied with F-16 Falcons.

[Ithekro]

Time for the Falcons to join the German cats in fighting Russia.

[Yu Ominae]

Ukraine is disputing Wagner claims that they secured Bakhmut.

Seems like one geopolitical analyst I know is harping on Wagner claims.

[Key Board]

Every time I see "world war 3" trending on twitter, I'm just going to assume things are going badly for Russians

//

[Jaden]

Awkward situation in Belgorod, as Ukraine-backed Russian turncoats invade with armored vehicles and take control of several settlements.

Russia is addressing them as saboteurs and is attempting to repel them.

Didn't imagine we would get a reverse green men scenario..

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Jaden

Awkward situation in Belgorod, as Ukraine-backed Russian turncoats invade with armored vehicles and take control of several settlements.

Russia is addressing them as saboteurs and is attempting to repel them.

Didn't imagine we would get a reverse green men scenario..

Honestly the non-frontlines part of the Russia/Ukraine border is long enough that something like this was probably going to happen eventually. Even with mobilization filling out a lot of the Russian front-lines in Ukraine proper, I get the feeling that Russia had grown complacent with the regular border out of the assumption that Ukraine would be reluctant to look like the aggressor to its foreign backers. Even if this turns out to be a more limited incursion, I think Russia is going to have to reassess how much men and material they'll actually need to protect the entire border.

Ukraine using Russian volunteers officially operating out of the Ukrainian military chain of command (or at least leading in with them) ain't much as far as plausible deniability goes, but in terms of optics it really dilutes the "muh Ukrainian escalation" out of potential headlines.

[mangamuscle]

My oh my, this is earlier than I thought. My bet was that at the earliest we would see this scenario before Crimea became the last piece of land in russian hands. Since we have had non-ukranians fighting or training for several months we could see this repeat in transnistria, abkhazia, south ossetia and belarus. We could also see this in chechNYA and other regions with clear minotities. Maybe the kremlin should pre-emptively move their nuclear arsenal near moscow, becasuse the farther it is, the easier it might be takeb by non state actors. Because lets be real, at present putin does not have the human pool to secure their borders, securing military bases in the middle of nowhere is but a pipe dream.

[Jaden]

For the time being, it seems like no Russian territory has been occupied by these attackers.

Russian side has published some footage of abandoned vehicles. From the Ukrainian side, there's footage of the Russian volunteers returning to Ukraine.

In the meantime, two other incursions into Russia at different points along the border have been reported.

Seems very much like guerilla warfare intended to distract, rather than a serious attempt to "liberate" Russian territory as the Russian Volunteer Corps/Freedom of Russia Legion claimed.

Impossible to determine whether this is good strategy or not...If in the near future, Ukraine liberates a bunch of territory elsewhere, I guess we will say in retrospect that these raids were a genius idea. If the Ukrainian counterattack fizzles, then this will also be remembered as a fool's errand.

Perhaps more importantly, this is a way for the Russian rebels to gain clout. Not many people knew they even existed until now.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Jaden

Perhaps more importantly, this is a way for the Russian rebels to gain clout. Not many people knew they even existed until now.

Let's not forget that this is precisely how the cuban revolution in the 1950s flourished. This raids have lifted the illusion that the russian army will promptly deal with any group that has but a couple of tanks and some vehicles. Let's not forget that (just like in cuba), there is discontent in the population at large because a select group of oligarchs hogs most of the wealth of the country. A peasant revolt can be troublesome, but if they get some military equipment (either from the west or from soviet storehouses) it would be more than what putin bargained.

[Roger Rambo]

Originally Posted by Jaden

For the time being, it seems like no Russian territory has been occupied by these attackers.

Russian side has published some footage of abandoned vehicles. From the Ukrainian side, there's footage of the Russian volunteers returning to Ukraine.

In the meantime, two other incursions into Russia at different points along the border have been reported.

Seems very much like guerilla warfare intended to distract, rather than a serious attempt to "liberate" Russian territory as the Russian Volunteer Corps/Freedom of Russia Legion claimed.

Impossible to determine whether this is good strategy or not...If in the near future, Ukraine liberates a bunch of territory elsewhere, I guess we will say in retrospect that these raids were a genius idea. If the Ukrainian counterattack fizzles, then this will also be remembered as a fool's errand.

Perhaps more importantly, this is a way for the Russian rebels to gain clout. Not many people knew they even existed until now.

The total forces being used in these raids are really too small to be what makes or breaks any Ukrainian counter-offensive. Especially since these troops aren't those newly formed Brigades that received a lot of NATO training and heavy Western equipment. If the offensive runs into problems, it'll likely be because of issues beyond these raids.

The raids themselves are probably going to be beneficial for Ukraine to at least some degree. Since if Russia *wants* to effectively prevent repeats of this, they need to divert men and material away from the front or reserves for fighting in Ukraine. And rather critically they need to divert those across much of the "quiet" part of the border if they don't want repeats happening in different places.

[mangamuscle]

Originally Posted by Roger Rambo

And rather critically they need to divert those across much of the "quiet" part of the border if they don't want repeats happening in different places.

Also, let's not forget the obvious. If russia places enough troops along the border, it becomes worthwhile for the ukranian army to use heavy artillery to blow them up, then putin either replinishes said troops to be blown again or desists and gets another raid.

[ramlaen]

According to Prigozhin the Wagner Group suffered 20,000 deaths during the half year fight for Bakhmut.

Also
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ed-revolution/

Fresh off his claim of victory in capturing the Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, Russian mercenary boss Yevgeniy Prigozhin warned that Moscow’s brutal war could plunge Russia into turmoil similar to the 1917 revolution unless its detached, wealthy elites become more directly committed to the conflict.

[Yu Ominae]

Spotted a photo of ROK national who volunteered to join Wagner... This is according to a Korean-speaking FB user.

[Renegade334]

Possible first combat sighting of Leopards in DPR frontlines:

Originally Posted by Alexander Khodakovsky on Telegram

The situation in Novodonetskoye and to the left of Veliko Novosilka is difficult - the enemy, pushing at our weak spots, is increasing his efforts. For the first time in our tactical area we have seen Leopards.

Khodakovsky is the deputy head of the Russian national guard in Donetsk, by the way - a former UA special forces operator who switched sides in 2014.

To be taken with a grain of salt, of course - and it's uncertain whether those where L1s or L2s.