Brexit Vote

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Yeah, it won't happen. Johnson will just refuse to give Scotland a 2nd Indyref which will push more scots voting SNP because it clearly shows that Scotland is not treated as an equal when having a different opinion. After all they do represent 48 our of 59 constituencies, Johnson saying "fuck you" to that is a real blow to Scottish voter opinions. Not that he cares about that after those loses up there.
But sooner or later it will come down that there gonna have to be another indy because most people in scotland don't like Brexit, they don't like Johnson and they don't like the Tories, so the Union they are in is ruled and heading into a direction against their will. That's not helpful for the Union's future because sooner or later it shows this isn't an Union but England leading the other three countries however it wants. In other words Scotland, Wales and NI are just vassals whereas England is the only "real country" that truly matters in the Union.

Exactly. So what if the future government refuse to organize an independance referendum they're really afraid they might lose? What then?

[Toukairin]

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

I wonder if it'll come down to BoJo (or some future successor) sending troops to Scotland to get them to stop asking for independence?

In the British constitution, the armed forces of the United Kingdom are under direct command of the Queen (or any reigning monarch). Hence the Prime Minister has no say about deploying troops anywhere and especially on British soil without consulting the Queen first. Since the Royal Family has very deep ties with Scotland, any Prime Minister can stick the mere idea up the bollocks.

[Sides]

Originally Posted by DracoS

Well it seems the people decided they want out of the EU. The fact Jo Swinson and all the Change UK MPs lost is very telling.

... You have to get your facts straight. Jo Swinson only got her seat, because in 2017 a lot of SNP supporters didn't bother to go out for that snap elections. Even yesterday the turnout in scotland was less than in 2015. Plus Change UK never had anyone in Scotland.
Your post summarises what fake news is all about, taking bits and pieces out of context and using it to make a case.

[James Rye]

Originally Posted by DracoS

Well it seems the people decided they want out of the EU. The fact Jo Swinson and all the Change UK MPs lost is very telling.

I dunno. The voteshare of Cons barely went up. Johnson won most seats sure, but the amounts of votes he got was nearly as much as May did in 2017, just 1.2% more. He won because
a) Brexit stood down in all Tory seats giving them basically a coalition because the Brexit Party voters there only had the Tories left to vote if they wanted to do Brexit and not Farage and his goons
b) Lab and Libdems ate each other votes up, in several counties if either party had abstained then the Cons would have lost. Sometimes they were in first place with only 100+ or even less votes.
c) Corbyn was soooooooooooooo much more disliked than Johnson which caused several Lab voters to stay home which made defending seats easier for Tories as well as taking over the Midlands or the "red wall" from the Labs.

Ofc there are other stuff like Tories simple message of getting Brexit done and Lab overpromising and wanting too much change at once or ofc the large money donation Tories got from the 1% of the UK, but in the end tactical voting failed and the remain parties were stealing each other votes whereas Tories stood as sole Brexit party in many seats, making this an easy battle for them.

Tories: 364 seats from 13 million votes
Labour: 203 seats from 10 million votes
SNP: 48 seats from 1.2 million votes
Lib Dems: 11 seats from 3.7 million votes

See? The amount of votes and seats doesn't add up, so you cannot say people decided they wanted Brexit, you can say they decided they didn't wanted Corbyn and his fence-sitting.

Originally Posted by Anh_Minh

Exactly. So what if the future government refuse to organize an independance referendum they're really afraid they might lose? What then?

Johnson cannot refuse forever and he knows that and everyone in the UK knows that. It will try to delay it but he cannot ignore Scotland's demand forever, because sooner or later he would be seen as an "Overlord" ignoring the democratic will of Scotland and that would be bad for the Union. I dunno when he gonna give Sturgeon her 2nd Indyref but it will happen sometime in the future.

[Sides]

Originally Posted by James Rye

I dunno when he gonna give Sturgeon her 2nd Indyref but it will happen sometime in the future.

He won't, and the sole reason is, because she is a woman. If Sturgeon was man, Johnson would have given him what he asks for ages ago. So unless we get another male SNP FM, we won't get another referendum, if the Tories stay in power, down south.

[Blaat]

Originally Posted by kari-no-sugata II

Meanwhile, now that Brexit is basically a done deal, how much of a dog's breakfast is it going to be in practice?

Not quite, phase 1 of Brexit is a done deal. Phase 2 of Brexit will start in February. During phase 2 the UK will be in the single market, customs union and accept EU rules and law on all matter without having a say in it how its created. During this phase 2 the EU and UK will negotiate the future relationship, and potentially a free trade agreement. This phase will end next December or be extended to 2022. The decisions to extend will have to be made in June or July.

It's going to be very confusing for the British people next year where Brexit has finally happened but the media will still be talking about it, and speculating whether or not there's going to be a no deal at the end of the year. (quite likely IMO ) Perhaps the government will start a new "prepare for Brexit" campaign?

[SeijiSensei]

The situation with respect to Scotland is complex. Overall, Scotland has a net "balance of payments" deficit with the rest of the UK. Including or excluding a share of North Sea oil revenues has only a small effect.

Moreover, if I were the Tories, I'd be happy to see Scotland depart. Scotland has voted for the SNP and the LibDems more often in recent elections than for the Tories. A UK without Scotland would be much more likely to return Conservative majorities.

I found the results for Northern Ireland much more intriguing. For the first time ever, a majority of constituencies were won by nationalist parties, seven by Sinn Fein and two by the Social Democratic and Labour Party. (Sinn Fein's MPs refuse to sit at Westminster.) The remaining eight seats were won the Democratic Unionists who provided the margin to support Teresa May's government last year. Like Scotland, Northern Ireland voted Remain, while the DUP (reluctantly?) supported Brexit. Expect pressure to build for reuniting with the Republic, especially since Johnson's plan to draw a line in the Irish Sea is not well-regarded in Northern Ireland.

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[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by DracoS

Well it seems the people decided they want out of the EU. The fact Jo Swinson and all the Change UK MPs lost is very telling.

Remain or 2nd Referendum parties got 53% of the votes.

[mangamuscle]

I think it is time for some good old british humor:

https://www.deviantart.com/jollyjack...tion-823360214

[Anh_Minh]

Originally Posted by mangamuscle

I think it is time for some good old british humor:

https://www.deviantart.com/jollyjack...tion-823360214

Leavers won't see it that way for years if ever, though.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by DracoS

Well it seems the people decided they want out of the EU. The fact Jo Swinson and all the Change UK MPs lost is very telling.

Yep. I accept at this point that UK overall wants Brexit.

Though now the fun lies in Scotland and Northern Island, as both reject Tories AND reject Brexit.

And as was pointed out by others, if the Tories let them go, they would win elections for pretty much forever more. Britain is clearly more conservative than the other kingdoms and wanted different things.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by Vallen Chaos Valiant

Yep. I accept at this point that UK overall wants Brexit.

Again, 53% of voters went for parties that either advocate revoking article 50 or a second refendum.

[Vallen Chaos Valiant]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

Again, 53% of voters went for parties that either advocate revoking article 50 or a second refendum.

That's not the voting system you use is it?
Regardless, the Brexit voters won fair and square within the rules. The same way ancient Athens once voted for a greedy invasion of a peaceful neighbour for their resources. The thing with democracy is that the people don't always vote for nice things.

The issue now is, what to do now? And the Scottish people appear to know what to do about it.

[Guardian Enzo]

You didn't day "they won within the rules". You said "The UK overall wants Brexit". The facts suggest otherwise.

[Arabesque]

We can crunch the numbers down all day, but in the end, it doesn't matter now does it? Boris got his majority, he'll sign the deal the EU feeds him, tell his supporters he got Brexit done (however that may take shape), stick the border in the sea, and life will go on. Probably for the worse for people in the UK, but it is what it is.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by Arabesque

We can crunch the numbers down all day, but in the end, it doesn't matter now does it? Boris got his majority, he'll sign the deal the EU feeds him, tell his supporters he got Brexit done (however that may take shape), stick the border in the sea, and life will go on. Probably for the worse for people in the UK, but it is what it is.

I don't think anyone is disputing that, and indeed it's the only thing that really matters. I just don't like letting misleading statements go unchallenged.

[DracoS]

Adding the losing parties votes together and saying there very mixed up messengers is proof that the people didn't want Brexit is kind of pushing it to be honest. Labour especially was anything but clear on Brexit, often using vague wording and pushing other issues to the front over Brexit.

[Guardian Enzo]

But they did (at last) officially back a second referendum.

The vote at the Euro elections, where the Brexit Party went off, split 50-50 between remain and leave parties. The vote this time split 50-50 (slightly in favor of remain/referendum parties, but we'll let that go). The point is that that saying the election results prove "the UK wants Brexit" is an unsupportable statement not corroborated by the actual results.

[Anh_Minh]

How about "They had their chance to say no, and they didn't seize it"?

[kari-no-sugata II]

If we say that there were 3 options on the table, namely "get Brexit done" (Tories + UKIP + Brexit Party), "2nd referendum" (Labour) and "Remain" (the other parties) then I think it would be fair to say that Brexit won a "plurality" of the vote (which is typically called a "relative majority" in the UK):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Plurality_(voting)

So it's not an absolute majority but a relative majority.

btw, I'd suggest that by the same argument that the SNP (who got 45% of the vote in Scotland) can't genuinely claim to have popular support for a 2nd independence referendum. All the other parties were against it (AFAIK) and there was no third option on the table.