Anime Saimoe Tournament 2013 (Japan)

[AP24]

Group 1:
Most likely Stage 3 will be between Rikka and Miho. They seem equally matched but Rikka is my prediction and pick since a new season of Chuunibyou is coming out soon.

Group 2:
Most likely Stage 3 will be between Maho and Sawa. Both of them were defeated by Watashi and they are also quite equally matched. Maho is my prediction and pick since she has the advantage of Ro-Kyu-Bu being a recent series and Tomoka is already in the Final 16.

Group 3:
Interesting about this group is that 3 of them lost to Tomoka. TOSHINOU KYOUKO is my prediction and pick, since Saki characters are weaker now and she was the closest to win against Tomoka. TOSHINOU KYOUKO is a good example of how having the Losers Block bring justice to very strong characters that lost early in the main tournament.

Group 4:
This group is also interesting since 3 of them lost to Kobato. It’s either between Uiharu, Sakurako and Yoshino. Yoshino and Uiharu each has the advantage of being from a recent series. Date A Live already has confirmation of another season coming soon so Yoshino is my prediction and pick.

Group 5:
Most likely Stage 3 will be between Azuki Azusa and Chiho. Azuki Azusa is probably one of the strongest characters this year and she only lost to a Madoka Magica character and so she is my prediction and pick.

Group 6:
Saki characters may be weaker now but Toki is still considered the strongest Saki character and also last year’s champion so she still might have a chance. It’s either between Toki, Tsukiko and Yozora. It will be interesting the Stage 3 match is between Toki and Tsukiko since both are voiced by Yui Ogura. Tsukiko is my prediction and pick.

Group 7:
This is the easiest to predict which Madoka is my prediction and pick. Stage 3 match will be between Madoka and Eru. We all know how strong Madoka Magica characters are. In 2011 Madoka even won against Sayaka, so if Eru can’t beat Sayaka then there’s no way she can beat Madoka.

Group 8:
This is also easy to predict which Akarin is my prediction and pick. It’s possible the one who go against Akarin in Stage 3 will be Akiko instead of Yuu.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Matches: R1-1 R1-2

No more second chances. It's do or die time now that the Repechage Rounds have begun. Katyusha is fairly weak. Teru would have won before but now I don't have any faith in her after the overall Saki decline. I guess I'm going with Koneko her. She did okay against Mami. Awai looks better now that I know Tomoka is really strong. Mihoko nearly lost to Isuzu Hana. Both a Saki characters so the Saki drop won't mean as much here. I'm siding with Awai winning.

Votes:
Toujou Koneko
Oohoshi Awai

Predictions:
Toujou Koneko
Oohoshi Awai

[Wanderer]

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

all those troubles started around the time Ayase knocked out both Homura and Madoka. That was when Saki started weakening

Nonsense. Saki looked really weak before all that. Toki narrowly beat Frenda Seivelun 238 to 221 (even while comboing with Yuu). Kuro beat Marii Buratei 226 to 203. Tacos LOST to Yuzuko with a mere 137 votes. Generally Saki in round 1 didn't appear to be anything special. The only clear, sharp decline that Saki has had was on Oct. 9, when the admins started their new controversial policy, which resulted in Nodoka losing that day with a very low vote count.

[ion475]

Well, who'll get 2nd chance? For me, all the girls are fodders today anyway...

R1-1: Pick: Katyusha, Predict: Koneko
R2-1: Pick/Predict: Awai

Nonsense. Saki looked really weak before all that. Toki narrowly beat Frenda Seivelun 238 to 221 (even while comboing with Yuu). Kuro beat Marii Buratei 226 to 203. Tacos LOST to Yuzuko with a mere 137 votes. Generally Saki in round 1 didn't appear to be anything special. The only clear, sharp decline that Saki has had was on Oct. 9, when the admins started their new controversial policy, which resulted in Nodoka losing that day with a very low vote count.

I wouldn't say Saki looks weak, it's more like they are not even close to last year when they win matches left and right no matter who their opponents are 90% of the time.

At the end, the only suspicious match (Just b/c of the outcome and how we got there) is Nodoka v. Maho anyway, none of the other outcome are completely unexpected.

And yes, anti-Saki faction do exist AFAIK.

[Ichuki]

Pick- Katyusha, N/A
Prediction- Katyusha, Awai

[Archaeon]

Is there any reason for this tournament for loser?

Speaking about Saki,they do look weak in round 1 but after that,they seems to be getting the momentum they once had(although not as good as last year) until the admin started their new controversial policy.

Yuu,who are weaker than Toki still manage to get 46.67% of the vote against Mami. If I was Mami fan,seeing the result,I would have got nervous for Mami against Toki. If the new rule not being implemented,God knows how many actual votes Toki can get.

[Team Rocket Elite]

Saki looked bad early on in Round 1. They started getting things together near the end of Round 1 and through Round 2. Then they fell apart again. Perhaps they are even weaker than in Round 1. Actually if they turn out to be roughly as strong as they were in early Round 1, maybe that boost in the middle was from some sort of cheating that is now being filtered out.

[Archaeon]

Originally Posted by Team Rocket Elite

Saki looked bad early on in Round 1. They started getting things together near the end of Round 1 and through Round 2. Then they fell apart again. Perhaps they are even weaker than in Round 1. Actually if they turn out to be roughly as strong as they were in early Round 1, maybe that boost in the middle was from some sort of cheating that is now being filtered out.

Just check the stats again. Actually, no one really have huge votes in first round. Mami only has 214 votes in first round. Sakura Kyoko has 205 votes. Ayase has 203 votes.

Toki and Yuu each have more than 200 votes. Non of the faction are ahead of each other on first round. Saki,Madoka,Ro-Kyu-Bu and Girl and Panzer,they are all equal with each of their characters have 200+ votes.

The boost after round 1 occur to every faction not just Saki alone. No one appear special in round 1.

Originally Posted by iamadooddood

I doubt Saki would've been able to win like they did last year had they been cheating. They'd have been caught quickly. In addition, all those troubles started around the time Ayase knocked out both Homura and Madoka. That was when Saki started weakening (same goes for Chuu2). Besides, they did dominate other years they were eligible in, only that 2012 was the only year their dominance bore fruit.

Instead of Ayase vs Homura vs Madoka, it also possible that it's Yuu vs Mami that trigger the admins decision to implement the new rule to rig the votes. Or it could be both matches.

I mean come on,some one who are not the most popular in Saki still manage to get 46.67% of vote against Madoka top girl,Mami.

[BloodyKitty]

The vote total is very low, half as usual, just as expected.

Koneko pretty much wins this match. Awai might pretty well wins over Mihoko as well.

[Archaeon]

Well,no one really care for loser tournament anyway.

Where do you guys check the current vote count?

[Hachiko]

Originally Posted by Archaeon

Well,no one really care for loser tournament anyway.

Where do you guys check the current vote count?

Search way back in the thread. Instructions are there.

[Wanderer]

Another question about the new policy:

Are we always left in the dark about which votes have been thrown out, or are we only left in the dark when throwing out those votes wouldn't overturn the match result?

Originally Posted by Archaeon

Just check the stats again. Actually, no one really have huge votes in first round. Mami only has 214 votes in first round. Sakura Kyoko has 205 votes. Ayase has 203 votes.

Toki and Yuu each have more than 200 votes. Non of the faction are ahead of each other on first round. Saki,Madoka,Ro-Kyu-Bu and Girl and Panzer,they are all equal with each of their characters have 200+ votes.

The boost after round 1 occur to every faction not just Saki alone. No one appear special in round 1.

You'll make better assessments looking at percentages and considering how difficult the opponent is.

Go by pure numbers of votes and you'll conclude that Ryuuka is the favorite after round 1, which is nonsense of course.

Originally Posted by Archaeon

Instead of Ayase vs Homura vs Madoka, it also possible that it's Yuu vs Mami that trigger the admins decision to implement the new rule to rig the votes. Or it could be both matches.

That day (October 5th) definitely played a part, I think. Also, I think October 7th was weird too, with Azusa Azuki's 591 vs. Nibutani's 380.

In round 3 it really felt like some kind of shenanigans were up before the admins had even done anything, which is why I'm withholding judgment on the admins' intentions with their new policy.

Originally Posted by Archaeon

I mean come on,some one who are not the most popular in Saki still manage to get 46.67% of vote against Madoka top girl,Mami.

Looking at statistics, Yuu and Toki were very close in strength last year. Toki's revered because she won, but Kuro got 48.34% against her in the finals. And Yuu got 49.58% against Kuro in the quarter-finals. Statistically, it's very reasonable to consider the 3 of them as being nearly equal in strength.

By comparison, in the semi-finals Toki smashed Nodoka 64.99% to 35.01% and Kuro smashed Hisa 67.19% to 32.81%.

[Archaeon]

Originally Posted by Wanderer

Another question about the new policy:

Are we always left in the dark about which votes have been thrown out, or are we only left in the dark when throwing out those votes wouldn't overturn the match result?



You'll make better assessments looking at percentages and considering how difficult the opponent is.

Go by pure numbers of votes and you'll conclude that Ryuuka is the favorite after round 1, which is nonsense of course.



That day (October 5th) definitely played a part, I think. Also, I think October 7th was weird too, with Azusa Azuki's 591 vs. Nibutani's 380.

In round 3 it really felt like some kind of shenanigans were up before the admins had even done anything, which is why I'm withholding judgment on the admins' intentions with their new policy.



Looking at statistics, Yuu and Toki were very close in strength last year. Toki's revered because she won, but Kuro got 48.34% against her in the finals. And Yuu got 49.58% against Kuro in the quarter-finals. Statistically, it's very reasonable to consider the 3 of them as being nearly equal in strength.

By comparison, in the semi-finals Toki smashed Nodoka 64.99% to 35.01% and Kuro smashed Hisa 67.19% to 32.81%.

That's not what I'm saying. Of course,no way ryuuka is stronger than toki but the point is all other faction look equally powerful in first round whether it's Madoka, Saki, GNP and Ro-Kyu-Bu. After round 1,they all got boost.
But yeah, you can look at percentage and opponents too and still can come with same conclusion.

Toki>kuro>yuu

Toki who are stronger than yuu will definitely do better than 46.67% but whether she will do enough to beat mami I don't know. One thing I do know a potentially good match have been ruined by the admins.

I think we are pretty much left in the dark which is why some of us mention things become less transparent giving the possibilities the organizer rig the votes.

Can someone answer me what's the purpose of loser tournament? Are the winner of loser tournament going to go against the winner of the final to decide the real winner of this saimoe?

[BloodyKitty]

Originally Posted by Archaeon

Can someone answer me what's the purpose of loser tournament? Are the winner of loser tournament going to go against the winner of the final to decide the real winner of this saimoe?

It's not like that. The 8 winners of loser's tournament will gain the equal participation just as the 8 Block Winners in the main tournament. The Final Round will proceed like previous year, but starting with these 16 contestants instead of just 8 Block Winners.

The loser tournament is based on the idea of "rescuing" some worthwhile contestants who got knocked out in the main tournament. Some examples would be Toshinou Kyouko, Madoka and the Henneko girls.

[Subayai]

The final results with multis excluded for the matches where the winners didn't change (before the new rule modification) have now been released. There are no big differences but this could be helpful if one wants to compare the real strength of all characters or for statistics purposes. So for what it's worth i'll just leave it here (results before -> after):

Spoiler for Results before and after exclusion of multis:

Round 3
Yoshino 256 -> 249
Shizuno 189 -> 171

Watashi 224 -> 213
Sawa 200 -> 192

Akari 270 -> 259
Asuna 159 -> 155

Sayaka 309 -> 301
Kuroko 140 -> 135

Block Finals
Mami 503 -> 441
Toki 230 -> 213

Kyouko 491 -> 427
Azusa 220 -> 209

Ayase 305 -> 278
Miho 234 -> 218

Tomoka 366 -> 340
Ryuuka 160 -> 147

============================
And here are today's results:
Votes Before -> After multis exclusion
R1-1
1st 105 -> 105 Koneko Toujou @ High School DxD
2nd 76 -> 74 Teru Miyanaga @ Saki
3rd 60 -> 57 Katyusha @ Girls Und Panzer

R1-2
1st 83 -> 82 Awai Oohoshi @ Saki
2nd 81 -> 79 Mihoko Fukuji @ Saki
=============================

Most likely, both winners today will lose in the next round but congrats to them anyway.

Tomorrow's matches look more interesting since I think both Kyouko and Uiharu could reach the Last 16. I'm really hoping that at least Uiharun can do it.

[Aya Reiko]

Spoiler for The R Board:

Guessing...
KYOUKO & Uiharu

[Team Rocket Elite]

Koneko does indeed win the first match. I'm surprised to see Mihoko do so well against Awai. I expected Awai to do a bit better than that.

Matches: R1-3 R1-4

Kirino got stomped by Watashi. Even as strong as Watashi is, it wasn't that good a performance. Kyouko nearly beating Tomoka is much better. Kyouko should win. Azusa is pretty weak and is kinda lucky to be in Repechage. Uiharu should win fairly easily.

Votes:
Toshinou Kyouko
Uiharu Kazari

Predictions:
Toshinou Kyouko
Uiharu Kazari

[Triple_R]

While I get the idea behind repechage, I also think spending a lot of time on it is a bit wasteful.

I mean, just look at these embarrassingly low vote totals.


Instead of going through all these "loser rounds", perhaps it would be better to put all the 2nd place finishers (to Block Winners) into a prelim-like round, and just say that the Top 8 finishers move on to Final 16. If a problematic multi-way tie comes up, then use won-loss performance as Tie-Break 1 (so giving an edge to those who went the furthest before losing), and highest achieved vote total as Tie-Break 2 (so giving an edge to those who are the most likely to make some noise in the Final 16). Get it all done in one big shot. Get it all done in a day.

[Archaeon]

Originally Posted by Subayai

The final results with multis excluded for the matches where the winners didn't change (before the new rule modification) have now been released. There are no big differences but this could be helpful if one wants to compare the real strength of all characters or for statistics purposes. So for what it's worth i'll just leave it here (results before -> after):

Spoiler for Results before and after exclusion of multis:

Round 3
Yoshino 256 -> 249
Shizuno 189 -> 171

Watashi 224 -> 213
Sawa 200 -> 192

Akari 270 -> 259
Asuna 159 -> 155

Sayaka 309 -> 301
Kuroko 140 -> 135

Block Finals
Mami 503 -> 441
Toki 230 -> 213

Kyouko 491 -> 427
Azusa 220 -> 209

Ayase 305 -> 278
Miho 234 -> 218

Tomoka 366 -> 340
Ryuuka 160 -> 147

============================
And here are today's results:
Votes Before -> After multis exclusion
R1-1
1st 105 -> 105 Koneko Toujou @ High School DxD
2nd 76 -> 74 Teru Miyanaga @ Saki
3rd 60 -> 57 Katyusha @ Girls Und Panzer

R1-2
1st 83 -> 82 Awai Oohoshi @ Saki
2nd 81 -> 79 Mihoko Fukuji @ Saki
=============================

Most likely, both winners today will lose in the next round but congrats to them anyway.

Tomorrow's matches look more interesting since I think both Kyouko and Uiharu could reach the Last 16. I'm really hoping that at least Uiharun can do it.

The new rule says the mod will remove vote that think is is suspicious even though the code is valid right? Do they have stats where votes are not removed due to suspicion?

Originally Posted by Triple_R

While I get the idea behind repechage, I also think spending a lot of time on it is a bit wasteful.

I mean, just look at these embarrassingly low vote totals.


Instead of going through all these "loser rounds", perhaps it would be better to put all the 2nd place finishers (to Block Winners) into a prelim-like round, and just say that the Top 8 move on to Final 16. If a problematic multi-way tie comes up, then use won-loss performance as Tie-Break 1, and highest achieved vote total as Tie-Break 2. Get it all done in one big shot.

Agree. This loser tournament is totally pointless.

[Triple_R]

Originally Posted by Archaeon

Agree. This loser tournament is totally pointless.

It's a two-week waste of time. The vast majority of these matches are completely inconsequential, and everybody knows it.

I'm pretty sure that repechage exists mainly as a response to Homura getting screwed by Mikoto in 2011 (which is darkly humorous given that Homura herself got screwed again in 2013 anyway )

Well, anyone as strong as 2011 Homura would finish Top 8 in a prelim-esque "2nd Round Finishers Match", and get back in. Those not strong enough to pull that off have no business in the Final 16 anyway, imo.