[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 2 Turn of the golden witch

[Kealym]

All I can add to this is that I disagree with GreyZone's assessment ; Ryukishi may feel he made Turn "too hard"

But I would personally consider it the simplest EP to solve in it's entirety, and you don't even need clues from other EP's to do so. Legend, on the other hand, you can certainly get 90% as it is, but you won't reach nigh-certainty without a certain couple of clues from later.

[Sauzer]

Originally Posted by haguruma

I think that's the feeling we all had after EP2, but I would really heed GreyZone's advice and maybe also go back to EP1 and test some of your ideas there.

The problem with ep1 is, I'm afraid I'll start going backwards.

First of all as far as I'm concerned my [Natsuhi, Kinzo, Genji, Kanon, Kumasawa] theory (with or without Shannon) works nicely and explains everything.

Secondly I am condifent that Kanon is killed in the boiler room by someone pretending to be dead (9 people). And unless Eva and/or Hideyoshi super-glued a partially-cut stake to their foreheads, those guys are dead for sure. And since Kinzo is the only one who's death Nanjo doesnt confirm (we see a burned to a crisp body, that is kinda.. dead) it also means a conspiracy of Nanjo+[Shannon/Rosa/Kirye/Gohda/Krauss/Rudolf]+Natsuhi.

However this theory actually makes less sense the more I think about it. And gets very convoluted very fast.

0. 2nd episode suggests Nanjo is in Natsuhi's pocket. So far so good.

1. One of the 6 is playing dead, Nanjo confirms their, death, everyone else too shocked/disturbed to thoroughly check themselves. So far so good.

2. Natsuhi suggests to cover 6 people's faces (thus getting very close to the bodies and preventing the alive person from actually breathing (or it could be notices if they're breathing)) and Eva stops her!
Natsuhi has to be involved because she locks up the storage and takes the key.
And yet she suggests a potentially compromasing action that could reveal a fake dead person?
Eva might have stopped her for valid reasons, but then why didnt she stop the disturbance of a crime scene sooner?
If Natsuhi isn't involved then suddenly:
a) how does someone get out of the storage?
b) what the hell happens to Kinzo?
There is almost no time between the discovery of the 6 bodies (when everyone is accounted for) and Natsuhi's/Eva's 2nd visit, to kill Kinzo. + Natsuhi is the one who has the key to his study, thus Kinzo would have to leave on his own. Why on earth would he leave? He was perfectly fine sitting there in ep2.

Does that mean Eva is also involved?

It does explain some things. But then there's a lot of play-acting between them.
They go together to Kinzo and get rid of him. Natsuhi gives the key to storage to Eva so that she can go to there later and release the fake-dead-person. They blame each-other for a bit, shifting the blame.
In the evening Eva goes to the storage, releases whoever-is-faking. And gets killed for it? Why?

Then that X-person hides under the bed, waits for Kanon/Ganjo to run off, unlocks the chain, paint the door, locks the chain, goes back under the bed, later gets out through the window, runs into the boiler room, kills Kanon...

Nanjo/Natsuhi see that killings continue and decide to fortify in the study. Why would they continue some stupid game and place a letter when their own lives are now in danger. If Natsuhi uses that letter as a pretence to chase out Nanjo (how and why would she even have such a letter), why doesn't he object, try reveal that Natsuhi is the one involved? Afraid she'd instatly start shooting? Maybe. But why go out to where a mass-murderer is walking around, who started killing his own allies?

I could see the basic plan - Eva gets inheritance and shares with her accomplaces. But it all goes out of control as soon as she dies. The killer colud have an ulterior motive from the very start, sure enough ("praise my name" and such), but if Natsuhi/Nanjo were involved at the start, their later actions become quite questionable.

[haguruma]

Originally Posted by Sauzer

Eva might have stopped her for valid reasons, but then why didnt she stop the disturbance of a crime scene sooner?

That's actually a valid question. Maybe EP2 can provide you with some additional material to work there.

In your theory, are there two different murderers (or groups of murderers) at work?
Natsuhi is very likely dead during EP2 yet murders do occur in this Episode, who is killing here and why?

Also some question to ponder on:
Why is the epitaph being used for the murders?
Are the stakes the murder weapons?
Why does nobody survive when the seagulls cry?

[Sauzer]

Originally Posted by haguruma

That's actually a valid question. Maybe EP2 can provide you with some additional material to work there.

In your theory, are there two different murderers (or groups of murderers) at work?
Natsuhi is very likely dead during EP2 yet murders do occur in this Episode, who is killing here and why?

Also some question to ponder on:
Why is the epitaph being used for the murders?
Are the stakes the murder weapons?
Why does nobody survive when the seagulls cry?

As for the last three questions:
1. Why is the epitaph being used for the murders?
a) it is a distraction from a real possible motive
b) it's a bizzare coincidence and has nothing to do with the epitaph
c) it is literaly used as a summoning ritual (either trying to revive Beatrice or become one)

2. Are the stakes the murder weapons?
Maybe if they're poisoned? Because again they don't seem like an efficient fighting weapon and you couldn't be able to use it against Eva just by holding it in hand. And even if turned into a projectile they can't kill just by stabbing in the leg. So it would seem, like the stakes would be inserted after the murder. (Nanjo and Kumasawa in ep2) However it looks like Kanon was most deffinetly assaulted with a stake in ep1.
a) Stakes are poisoned and thus are murder weapons.
b) Victims are poisoned and then stabbed with the stakes.

Why does nobody survive when the seagulls cry?
If the killer is one of 18, that indeed makes little sense. Can that be trusted without a doubt? Perhaps the culprit goes missing. Perhaps he's sick and about to die anyway. Which again points fingers at Kinzo.

Which is why I liked my original theory and it all falls apart as soon as I move away from it.
Not involving Natsuhi means Kinzo's dissapearance becomes a mystery and entrance to the storehouse is locked. As soon as Eva dies as the last of the four siblings the money motive is gone.

One way to explain Kinzo's dissapearance would be that he died before the conference began. If what Rudolf and others suspect is true and Krauss embezzled Kinzo's assets, then Krauss wouldn't want Kinzo's death discovered just yet and try to hide it. Not sure why would the servants agree to it.

Since I need Nanjo anyway for the storehouse, let's say Nanjo betrays Krauss's family and tells one of the 6 about his death.
That person would have to be a skeemer. From the first two episodes Shannon doesnt show even a hint of that. Rosa seemed more like a.. reactonary person, than a skeemer. If Natsuhi isn't involved, but Eva is, it rules out Krauss (though Krauss had a strong motive as a desperation act). Another thing is who gives the letter to Maria? Eva, Hideyoshi, Rudolf, Krauss, Kyrie have a compelling alibi of each-other.
So the only two left are Gohda or Rosa? Rosa being "Beatrice" in the parlor explains why Maria is being kept alive for so long. While Gohda would make a very poor "Beatrice" in a dress.
But then what about the letter in the study? Maria was given another letter right from the start "If there comes atime when everyone locks themselves in the study, place this letter in a visible spot without being seen"? A bit too much for 9-year-kid.

I'm running in circles at this point I'm afraid.

[Kealym]

Originally Posted by Sauzer

Not involving Natsuhi means Kinzo's dissapearance becomes a mystery and entrance to the storehouse is locked. As soon as Eva dies as the last of the four siblings the money motive is gone.

Just in case you weren't sure, the inheritance doesn't stop with the siblings. The next in like to inherit would be Jessica.

[rogerpepitone]

I thought that Jessica was immediately after Krauss. (Though likely if only Krauss & Natsuhi died, one of the aunts would be appointed trustee until Jessica turned 25.)

[Sauzer]

yeah, which is why I don't really consider them as culprits if the motivation is money.

Jessica is the next successor anyway, so why'd she start killing everyone.
I could see George doing it to help his family, but he has no reason to kill his own family... erm.. aside from the whole engagement with Shannon (but thats not about the money).
Maria could not care less about money. And Battler... did he come back into the family to steal all the money? The detective is the murderer? thought not )

[Kealym]

The family has a ranking order that starts with Kinzo, goes down his children by age, then by the grandchildren by their parents relative age, and the spouses being last since they aren't blood related. For example - in Legend, after the First Twilight, Eva would've inherited the family headship, which is why Battler brings up her having the family fortune dropped in her lap. Jessica won't be the successor until her father is the Head and can NAME her the successor (which he will almost certainly do, although the TIPS imply that he would rather name a man he considers an appropriate husband for Jess) , or until everyone ranked ahead of her dies / opts out.

For reference, the specific order is the same as their seating arrangement at the dinner table:
1. Kinzo
2. Krauss
3. Eva
4. Rudolf
5. Rosa
6. Jessica
7. George
8. Battler
9. Ange
10. Maria
11. Natsuhi
12. Hideyoshi
13. Kyrie

Mind you, it's not like this ranking system means much at all in their day to day lives, but if someone intends to be the main inheritor (currently Krauss's position), they'd need to bump aside everyone above them, which even at this point in the story should tell you A LOT about motives that are possible / feasible / make any sense. Ange and Maria wouldn't really be able to do anything with that inheritance until they reach the age of majority, I guess. Dunno what is was in 1986, but right now it's 20.

[Sauzer]

Originally Posted by Kealym

The family has a ranking order that starts with Kinzo, goes down his children by age, then by the grandchildren by their parents relative age, and the spouses being last since they aren't blood related. For example - in Legend, after the First Twilight, Eva would've inherited the family headship, which is why Battler brings up her having the family fortune dropped in her lap. Jessica won't be the successor until her father is the Head and can NAME her the successor (which he will almost certainly do, although the TIPS imply that he would rather name a man he considers an appropriate husband for Jess) , or until everyone ranked ahead of her dies / opts out.

For reference, the specific order is the same as their seating arrangement at the dinner table:
1. Kinzo
2. Krauss
3. Eva
4. Rudolf
5. Rosa
6. Jessica
7. George
8. Battler
9. Ange
10. Maria
11. Natsuhi
12. Hideyoshi
13. Kyrie

Mind you, it's not like this ranking system means much at all in their day to day lives, but if someone intends to be the main inheritor (currently Krauss's position), they'd need to bump aside everyone above them, which even at this point in the story should tell you A LOT about motives that are possible / feasible / make any sense. Ange and Maria wouldn't really be able to do anything with that inheritance until they reach the age of majority, I guess. Dunno what is was in 1986, but right now it's 20.

Yeah, but the problem witht he money motive to begin with is why make things so overly complicated? And if the plan is to get the inheritance then the culprit himself needs to stay alive and prove that he did not commit all the crimes.

By that logic in ep1 Kyrie could be the culprit. Makes a temporary alliance with Eva, and then kills her and everyone else to be the sole inheritor.
But then if she's the only one alive when the police come she'd have a fat chance of proving she did not just commit mass-murder. Maria's "the witch did it" would not help. + "no one is alive when the seagulls cry"

And in ep2 if money is the motivation why would you leave three solid gold bars for anyone to take. Unless they're fake and/or you again plan to kill everyone.

At this point I just want to read the VN further. Otherwise I'll actually start to lose the enjoyment for the the series by bashing my head against the wall.

[Kealym]

Well it's better for now that you come to your own conclusions about all of that.

I just wanted to clarify the actual order of inheritance.

[Sauzer]

Originally Posted by Kealym

Well it's better for now that you come to your own conclusions about all of that.

I just wanted to clarify the actual order of inheritance.

and I just wanted to clarify why I discarded the inheritance motivation after a certain point