2011-10-29, 10:39 | Link #4141 |
~desu♥
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Falls Church, VA
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Kyoko won a hard match today and step into the semi-final with Hartmann, who definitely is the dark horse of this year. From today result, I think everyone will expect Kyoko to beat her opponent easily to go into the final. If that's the case then I would like to have Sayaka be there with her. This will make a very sweet saimoe final match. Not that I dislike any other remaining contestants. In fact, I like all of them and wouldn't mind seeing any of these girl winning the trophy.
For today, I'll be rooting for Sayaka. It seems like some people predict Madoka will win since she's the main character of her series. I see her as the weaker girl because she didn't make such a huge impact in the anime compared to Homura, Sayaka, Kyoko and even Mami, but we'll see what happen today.
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2011-10-29, 10:45 | Link #4142 |
Uncaring
Join Date: Sep 2010
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1:00- 1:59 131/131 83/ 83
2:00- 2:59 28/159 19/102 3:00- 3:59 9/168 15/117 4:00- 4:59 14/182 11/128 5:00- 5:59 6/188 2/130 6:00- 6:59 6/194 11/141 7:00- 7:59 9/203 14/155 8:00- 8:59 13/216 15/170 9:00- 9:59 9/225 17/187 10:00-10:59 8/233 9/196 11:00-11:59 4/237 11/207 12:00-12:59 14/251 19/226 13:00-13:59 10/261 14/240 14:00-14:59 8/269 6/246 15:00-15:59 11/280 17/263 16:00-16:59 15/295 17/280 17:00-17:59 20/315 15/295 18:00-18:59 15/330 16/311 19:00-19:59 19/349 27/338 20:00-20:59 21/370 31/369 21:00-21:59 26/396 39/408 22:00-22:59 249/645 150/558 23:00-23:59 12/657 10/568 Looks like an immense absolute gap of 12 votes before the final hour. Kuroneko absolutely widened that gap to 12 votes to where Kyoko had absolutely no hope of catching up and she only won by cheating. Indeed that 150 votes for Kuroneko was also totally legit and free from any implied cheating which only Kyoko could have done. *facepalm* A look at the graphs of all MS competitions (exept Sayaka) to the prelims shows the creation and growth of a faction whose tactic is final hour voting backed by normal voting of a general audience. They win because of the general audience support which some fail to realise is the result of the way the series ended itself during a disaster and time of uneasiness |
2011-10-29, 10:47 | Link #4143 | |
Part-time misanthrope
Join Date: Mar 2007
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Also I'd have bet money on Kuroneko, I stand corrected. FML |
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2011-10-29, 10:54 | Link #4145 |
にこにこにー
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: 国立音ノ木坂学院
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Sigh...there goes my one and only hope...F**k JST 2011...
Well, not really, if Mami or Ika-chan win I'll still be happy. On the other hand, if even Kuroneko can't stop the 4th tier Madoka girl, who can stop Mami? As for next round - I'm going with Sayaka...I mean, may as well. Conclusion? Erica for Saimoe 2011 Crown!!!!! |
2011-10-29, 11:00 | Link #4146 | ||||
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
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Just a little meta comment: Even if there are slight differences, it doesn't matter. In fact, I'd be surprised if there weren't any differences at all. I'm not even sure if we aren't streching the possibility of drawing conclusions out of comparisons too far. Each match has different circumstances, too many variables in the background we aren't aware of. Quote:
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2011-10-29, 11:09 | Link #4148 |
Defying gravity
Join Date: Jul 2010
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...Now, where were those people who were not participating in most of the entire previous matches from before? It seems almost certain that the final will be a PMMM final. With what was shown, if Ruri cannot defeat Kyouko, what are the chances for Ika to defeat Mami? Result is result for now. I guess I should congratulate Kyouko. At least, it was my second favorite PMMM girl (Except for Homura, everyone else is terrible in my taste)
Still unable to vote, but I will side with Sayaka. She should be able to win, unless Madoka was hiding her strength the entire time. |
2011-10-29, 11:45 | Link #4150 |
Senior Member
Join Date: Apr 2006
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That's it. All my girls are gone now. LOL But it's not that I hate Kyouko so I'm still somewhat happy with the result anyway.
Kyouko want to say thank you for those who cheer her on. Well, I intend to post this pic instead if Kuroneko win. Spoiler for Black Ranger:
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2011-10-29, 12:15 | Link #4151 | |
Senior Member
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: Planet Earth
Age: 54
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2. I am comparing how the derivatives are changing within the match itself. Also, I am making note that in most matches we have seen so far, the voter at any time can easily be equated with random drawing from the same random distribution function that resulted in the final result. Easy way to explain that would be that, even if you take away the 1st and last hour, not only the winner, but ratio of the votes received won't likely change much. If the winner of 02:00 to 22:00 mark wasn't the eventual overall winner, usually you would find that the match to be close throughout. Thus in most matches you won't likely see huge spike in derivative of vote function. In this match, that spike is too big, when compared to any other matches, no matter how you calculate that derivative. Spoiler for Vote difference vs time graph:
3. I was not talking about little difference. Most winners usually win 14 + voting hour blocks. Check it out for any Saimoe 2012 match. Kyouko won only 7 while losing 15. If we eliminate 1st and last, Kyouko won only 5 while losing 15. This is the main point I am saying it is unusual. 4. Let's look at the numbers. Only 237 votes ( = 36.1%) for Kyouko outside of first 2 and last 2 voting block hours in the our vote-vs-time graphs. In contrast 306 votes ( = 53.9% ) for Kuroneko outside of First 2 and last 2 voting block hours. Depending on how you interpret the word 'few', I guess you can say that is many, but I think this number is strongly indicative of the influence of those who coordinated Kyouko's victory and perhaps also of general support the character enjoys outside 2ch regulars. 5. I don't think these are little inconsistencies. I kept saying question the results, because I don't think we should take things at face value when these questionable numerical quantities exist. I never said someone cheated because I guesstimate that Null Hypothesis's P-value is still greater than 10%, but I also guesstimate that it is less than 25%. So, I don't know about you but what I was trying to accomplish with these writings were 1. Show how one can peer into the data to differentiate the suspicious case from the case that really isn't suspicious. Using the same method of counting hourly blocks won, you can actually claim that it is likely that Madoka girls won all the previous matches legitimately, and they would likely have won even if we count the votes of those who aren't the '2ch regulars' or avid faction members : in other word, general innocent public. 2. To discover what are the information I am missing to better understand the results. For example, I would not have known about the existence of 'Madoka Channel' in 2ch, nor that the last bars above 23:00 in the http://fc.jpn.org/ast2011/ actually is from 22:00 - 23:59 . I doubt people would have told me of this had I not made my doubt known. 3. finally, graphs are pretty. Spoiler for vote total vs time graph:
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2011-10-29, 12:58 | Link #4154 | |||
Senior Member
Join Date: Jun 2008
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My problem with this thing is not your desire to analyze things but the following: Nobody questioned the legitimacy of Misaka's wins even though she was weak in comparison at the last tournaments. Nobody even said that there could be cheating at work, even though such numbers should raise suspicion. The thing is, that you must be rather sure that you don't see just things, because otherwise you are spoiling the fun for other people even by just implying that Kyouko's win could result from cheating. Yes, sure, everything could be manipulated, but as long as you don't have very, and I mean very strong arguments, you shouldn't try to make these things a big topic. |
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2011-10-29, 12:58 | Link #4155 | |
Senior Member
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I hate to say it, but this is probably it for Sayaka. I have to think that this massive 1st hour lead for Madoka is indicative of a solid majority of PMMM faction voters preferring Madoka over Sayaka. I think that Sayaka has some of her own voters (aside from the PMMM faction voters) since she topped 500 twice (whereas Madoka never did, at least not yet) but I don't think it'll be enough to overcome that huge early lead for Madoka. Ah well, at least Sayaka made it to the Final Eight, if nothing else. Also, I don't see why people would be cheating in an all-PMMM match-up when the biggest threats to an eventual PMMM Saimoe winner are likely all gone (Biri Biri, Kanade, Kuroneko).
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2011-10-29, 13:15 | Link #4157 |
兄さんが望むなら...
Join Date: Aug 2007
Location: Ottawa, Canada
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Pick: 0-1 (0-2, 84-70)
Prediction: 1-0 (1-0, 118-36) Nice try, Ruri-chan. Time to go read v9. Pick: Madoka Prediction: Madoka If a Madoka char is to win the tourney, might as well be the one that the series is named after.
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2011-10-29, 13:26 | Link #4158 |
Sayaka★Magica
Join Date: Sep 2010
Location: Under the piercing blue sky
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*tightens headband* This could very well be my last stand. No surrender, no regrets.
Spoiler for my vote:
Spoiler for facing mortal danger without help from anyone but herself:
Pick: QF3: Sayaka Miki - In your moment of greatest need, I stand by you, until the end. いつだって変わらない It won't ever change; 思いを残すの。 these emotions which have been left behind.
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2011-10-29, 13:28 | Link #4159 | ||
Member
Join Date: Jun 2011
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The risk of voters not listening to instructions or 2ch going down is real, but has to be balanced against the benefit of having an "end of match party" to encourage the casual fans to participate. Most of them won't wait around for 2 hours after voting, but half an hour isn't so bad, so voting becomes a more exciting event. The tradeoff probably depends on what kind of fanbase you're dealing with. Also, regarding "few" votes, Kyouko was approaching 400 votes before the last hour, which is almost as high as her final total in the group final against Index and more than Erica won with in the other quarterfinal. If a number larger than the last quarterfinal's winning total looks like "few", that really says something about how much of a worthy opponent Kuroneko was. I think it is a good idea to closely check all matches to make sure everything's legit, but after looking at the voting thread I find this one believable. Quote:
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Tags |
2011, saimoe, tournament |
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