Is it just me, or are anime sales this year really low?

[0utf0xZer0]

So I've been watching this year's sales numbers come in. Based on the performances of previous shows of their kind, I would have expected shows like Macross Delta, Kabaneri and Re Zero to be selling tens of thousands of copies, and they aren't. And this is true across the boards: it feels like 10K is the new 20K and 4K is the new 8K. And while some of these shows had lackluster receptions, others, such as Re Zero, did not.

So what's going on here? Is the market for DVD and Bluray releases collapsing? And if so, how do shows expect to make money nowadays? Seems to me like most potential new revenue streams were already being tapped a few years ago when sales were much higher.

[0utf0xZer0]

I do recall reading an interview with the CEO of Minori (the company behind the VN that was adapted into EF: A Tale of Memories) in which he said the biggest problem VN companies face these days is that younger fans are less willing to shell out $90 for a VN than their predecessors.

I had assumed this was specific to the VN market because up until the past maybe year and a half, it looked to me like many anime productions were dodging the trend. But recent numbers make me think this is starting to affect the anime industry itself. And that concerns me because I have to question whether some of my favourite anime from a few years back, like Hanasaku Iroha or Ano Natsu de Matteru, would be greenlit today. They look to me like they would be far riskier bets.

[relentlessflame]

I suspect it probably is a matter of shifting demographics, increasing prevalence of streaming and viewing on smartphones, and the lessening desire to own physical media. This mostly means that productions have to rely on broader sources of revenue that we can't so easily gauge (e.g. licensing fees on global streaming sites, digital revenue incl. mobile, etc.), so it'll make it harder for fandom to have an easy/single reference point about a show's success.

In general terms, even in terms of disc sales over recent years, we saw an increasing importance placed on event tickets (which sort of went along with the increasing trend towards idol-focused shows, which is a very event-driven industry). Given the fact that anime can increasingly be accessed via legal streaming sites even after it's done "airing," it may make sense that the Japanese market shifts even more towards physical events.

I'd also say anecdotally that the rest of rest of the world's market seems to have gotten to a fairly comfortable place. Light novels seem to have found a consistent audience, and manga continues to do fairly well. There is even starting to be a tentative opening for some broader visual novels. The increasing digital availability is probably helping all that somewhat as well. Sites like Crunchyroll seem to be doing okay, and by most reports the licensing fees are pretty robust at the moment. It doesn't feel like a crazy boom market, but seems to be fairly comfortable. It's hard to say exactly how much this contributes to the industry, but some reports have commented that it's getting to be increasingly important (which would make sense combined with the drop in disc sales).

I don't suspect the change has anything to do with the "quality of anime" or its ability to engage an audience, but more due to changing viewing/purchasing habits.

[Harbinger]

It's so rare to find a shop dedicated for Anime/Manga and other Japanese merchandise.

It's not that I'm unwilling to contribute to them. Au contraire, I would be more than happy to do so.

HOWEVER, I'm not ready to drop $50ish. If they were $20 or something like that, I would probably do it. Figurines are very pricey too.

Anyway, I'm not really able to find any without going on the Internet. Money's not really an issue (ATM), but I'm not willing to pay the current prices.

I'm ready to pay a subscription fee to watch Anime, but I'm not ready to drop big $ on individual merchandise.

[Irenicus]

Originally Posted by relentlessflame

I'd also say anecdotally that the rest of rest of the world's market seems to have gotten to a fairly comfortable place. Light novels seem to have found a consistent audience, and manga continues to do fairly well. There is even starting to be a tentative opening for some broader visual novels. The increasing digital availability is probably helping all that somewhat as well. Sites like Crunchyroll seem to be doing okay, and by most reports the licensing fees are pretty robust at the moment. It doesn't feel like a crazy boom market, but seems to be fairly comfortable. It's hard to say exactly how much this contributes to the industry, but some reports have commented that it's getting to be increasingly important (which would make sense combined with the drop in disc sales).

Great insight. I didn't think much of it, but anime streaming does seem to have steadily developed a strong and consistent market these days, sharing (a small part of) success with the Netflixes and Spotifys of the world. As long as Netflix and Spotify are doing well I do feel that global consumers will be able to contribute to the health of the anime industry back in Japan.

Take me (because I am the center of the world and all); I have a crunchyroll account I don't need to think about, renewing every year, and I can watch anime whenever I'm in the mood. If it's a buy-a-boxset decision then that's a purchasing decision I have to make. If it's a buy-an-original-expensive-2-episode-disc, well, there are other options...

Call me an optimist, but the fact that it isn't quite an explosive growth with manga sections dominating bookstores like in the mid-2000's actually comforts me. Booms have tendencies to bust, while steady market growths are much more sustainable.

[Reckoner]

Ultimately it's a bit hard to see the exact metrics for success today for any given anime production. RF is completely correct about anime being much more multimedia focused nowadays. Whether it's promoting musical artists or some form of source material, anime studios often just make money on what they produce because they're essentially paid commercials. Selling discs is helpful but not necessarily the main goal anymore.

I don't think the picture is so rosy though. The anime industry has a serious lack of talent coming in. We see too few new great script writers and directors. Animation talent is also drying up because the dirt wages they pay has obviously never been that sustainable. I think this could grow into its own crisis as they industry produces more than it can realistically handle given the number of hands involved.

[relentlessflame]

Originally Posted by Irenicus

Take me (because I am the center of the world and all); I have a crunchyroll account I don't need to think about, renewing every year, and I can watch anime whenever I'm in the mood. If it's a buy-a-boxset decision then that's a purchasing decision I have to make. If it's a buy-an-original-expensive-2-episode-disc, well, there are other options...

Well, yeah. Collecting anime BDs in Japan has, for the most part, always been the equivalent of music aficionados who still collect vinyl records. (N.B. The Kizumonogatari OST actually was released on vinyl.) So all it's really going to do is keep becoming more and more niche as time goes on and less and less people even have disc players or have any reason to get them. I have to question whether the next generation of video game consoles will even have disc drives anymore, as most computers already don't. And when you can increasingly just stream everything you want on demand, the idea of finding the disc and putting it in the player to sit down and watch it is going to feel increasingly quaint. (Video rental stores are already basically dead in most parts of the world; though, notably, not yet so in Japan. I imagine their time is coming there too soon enough.) Most collectors I know don't even play the discs, but collect for its own sake.

I thought the small trend towards anime TV series sequels/conclusions as movies was an interesting twist, as it creates a bit more of an "event" out of it, just like the event tickets that are included with discs. When content is a commodity, experience takes precedence. Companies like Aniplex finding ways to bring those sames sorts of experiences to the rest of the world is probably a further step in this trend, which only becomes possible now that streaming keeps the world more in sync about anime phenomena.

[Cosmic Eagle]

Originally Posted by 0utf0xZer0

I do recall reading an interview with the CEO of Minori (the company behind the VN that was adapted into EF: A Tale of Memories) in which he said the biggest problem VN companies face these days is that younger fans are less willing to shell out $90 for a VN than their predecessors.

I had assumed this was specific to the VN market because up until the past maybe year and a half, it looked to me like many anime productions were dodging the trend. But recent numbers make me think this is starting to affect the anime industry itself. And that concerns me because I have to question whether some of my favourite anime from a few years back, like Hanasaku Iroha or Ano Natsu de Matteru, would be greenlit today. They look to me like they would be far riskier bets.

You'd think they would like consider....cutting the price since most young people in their first jobs aren't exactly bloody rich....


(and that's exactly the main problem really...not some great bubble bursting)

[MisaoFan]

And speaking of the anime sales lately, in cases of flops it's stooping lower than expected; heck I heard that Endride sets the new record for being the lowest selling anime according to /a/'s Stalker threads and I'm kind of worried it's going to sell less than hundreds of copies that are typical of financial flops.

[AntonKutovoi]

Originally Posted by MisaoFan

And speaking of the anime sales lately, in cases of flops it's stooping lower than expected; heck I heard that Endride sets the new record for being the lowest selling anime according to /a/'s Stalker threads and I'm kind of worried it's going to sell less than hundreds of copies that are typical of financial flops.

To be fair, if any show deserves not to sell, it's this one. Sure, it suddenly became good starting the second half of ep. 18, but that doesn't excuse the horrible mess of boredom that were the prevous ones.

[MisaoFan]

Originally Posted by AntonKutovoi

To be fair, if any show deserves not to sell, it's this one. Sure, it suddenly became good starting the second half of ep. 18, but that doesn't excuse the horrible mess of boredom that were the prevous ones.

For the record, can anyone tell me how are the sales according to someanithing? I'm worried it'll sell less than even one hundreds.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Cosmic Eagle

You'd think they would like consider....cutting the price since most young people in their first jobs aren't exactly bloody rich....

Japanese distributors have tried lowering prices from time to time, but the demand for anime is simply too inelastic for that to help. (Inelastic demand means that sales don't increase enough to compensate for the lower price.) Streaming and piracy enable people who want to watch a show but not own it to do so via both legal and illegal methods. That shrinks the disc market to collectors who are less price-sensitive. I'm pretty sure the pricing strategies used by Aniplex USA and Pony Canyon USA operate on this premise, too.

Japan has been less accepting of streaming than the West. Has that changed recently? Do we have any numbers on Japanese streaming subscribers like those Crunchyroll reports?

[Kuroi Hadou]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Japan has been less accepting of streaming than the West.

Given how mobile Japan as a culture is these days, I just can't stop laughing at how ironic that is.

[Guardian Enzo]

It does seem worth mentioning that Osomatsu-san is on track to be one of the 10 top selling series of all-time, more or less.

[Tactics]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

Japan has been less accepting of streaming than the West. Has that changed recently? Do we have any numbers on Japanese streaming subscribers like those Crunchyroll reports?

Originally Posted by Kuroi Hadou

Given how mobile Japan as a culture is these days, I just can't stop laughing at how ironic that is.

Uhh... Japan is accepting streaming. Its just they didn't went full streaming like most Westerners did.

[SeijiSensei]

Originally Posted by Tactics

Uhh... Japan is accepting streaming. Its just they didn't went full streaming like most Westerners did.

As I said, "less accepting of streaming than the West." None of this answers my question, though. Have Japanese subscribers to streaming anime grown substantially in the past year of two?

[Obelisk ze Tormentor]

Now that I think about it, how’s the OVA business doing? Out of various anime types, I think OVAs (especially the ones with no source materials or prior TV series) are the ones that rely on DVD/BD selling the most.

[0utf0xZer0]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

As I said, "less accepting of streaming than the West." None of this answers my question, though. Have Japanese subscribers to streaming anime grown substantially in the past year of two?

I'm curious about this as well as I was under the impression that the options for streaming anime in Japan weren't great. I remember one Japanese student I met saying that he actually found it easier to watch anime in Canada than in Japan due to most stuff being available on Crunchyroll. This would have been around late 2013 IIRC.

[IceHism]

I feel like it's the companies that don't want to accept streaming as opposed to the population. Though I'm not sure how good nicovideo's streaming service is.

[Tactics]

Originally Posted by SeijiSensei

As I said, "less accepting of streaming than the West." None of this answers my question, though. Have Japanese subscribers to streaming anime grown substantially in the past year of two?

Less accepting implied they're not really accepting it.
In reality, they accepted it, its just they're not going full streaming like Westerners nowadays; they're in position where TV shows and streaming are kinda balanced.