[Game] Umineko no Naku Koro ni - Ep. 4 Alliance of the golden witch

[ghost_zero5]

Originally Posted by Nyura Kousen

Everyone close to Kinzo can know about them, in my opinion. Which includes Nanjo, Genji, Shannon, Kanon and, but of course, Maria. However, this means one or more of them is an accomplice, or even the murderer. Or, in Maria's case, she could even be an "innocent accomplice", she draws them because "Beatrice" tells her so.

That's true but there are also the "Jessica is the murderer" theories but Jessica knowing about those symbols? Somehow, I can't believe this. However, she could have had e.g. Maria as accomplice that should be enough to get the information she needs.

[Leinne]

In Gohad's notes, he writes that Kanon told him that someone had messed up the tools of the shed and had painted a magic circle while he had the key, that's too similar to the first twilight of ep1 and can be related to the belief of someone making it look as Beatrice exists

[Kaiba]

Question here regarding one theory:

Spoiler for Theory Stuff:

I know there's a couple of people, but who here believes that Sakutarou was never destroyed by Rosa?

I have never really been able to accept that the scene where Rosa destroys him is 100% accurate, largely due to the presence of the social worker, who gives me two major problems with that person"

1. The first one is fairly obvious. The social worker talks to Rosa over an issue that is of a fairly serious concern when it comes to raising a proper response. Rosa's response is to hit her child very hard several times in front of the social worker. She then proceeds to completely destroy what is very obviously a valued possession of Maria, and (this is the clincher) when the social worker attempts to do something, attacks the social worker herself hard enough to throw her into a wall. And yet nothing is done. While this does seem to possibly being a theme in Ryukiishi's work, (since the social services were ludicrously incompetent in Higurashi), I have incredible disbelief believing that Rosa did not have any consequences for her behavior there. Of course, it is possible that there were repercussions that weren't shown, but I would think that then Rosa's behavior towards Maria on Rokkenjima would promote greater concern than it did.

2. The second one is sort of a meta-concept, and stems from one thing: why did Ryukiishi insert the social worker in this scene? A typical abuse story would run something along these lines: Rosa comes home from being called, and acts as a proper lady towards the social worker, smoothing over any domestic conerns (as she is the president of a company, she should have some experience dealing with people and learning how to be socially acceptable). The social worker, satisfied, leaves, and after she's gone, Rosa goes apeshit towards Maria, beats her up, and destroys Sakutarou. That's what typically would happen. Yet the social worker was inserted. Why?

It's of course possible that she was inserted to show just how much Rosa had lost it, that she couldn't even preserve a normal facade of decorum in front of authority and simply gave away. However, given Rosa's skill at maintaing proper decorum (and this is a skill which I'm sure she has given her siblings don't seem to quite realize how vicious she can be), I doubt this. My conclusion is that the social worker was intentionally inserted to show that this scene wasn't correct - Rosa would not behave like this in front of proper authority (yes, she did lose it in the train station in Episode 2, but that was in front of strangers, and she realized what a mistake that was. Doing it in front of a social worker is a different manner.), and so that scene didn't properly happen.

So what did happen? My conclusion is this:

At one point, Maria lost her Sakutarou doll

I don't know where Maria lost it - I suspect it was on the boat on a trip to Rokkenjima, but I'll elaborate on that later. But she lost the doll, and was quite obviously distraught. It got to the point where she refused to accept she did lose the doll, and responded by mentally manifesting the person known as Sakutarou. Consequently, while Maria chose to delete the painful memories of losing Sakutarou, she did it by creating an imaginary friend in the formation of Sakutarou, played with it, and so on.

One day, Rosa comes home and something bad happens, which causes Maria to start crying out for Sakutarou after being hit a few times. I have no doubt that Rosa would be sick of "Sakutarou" at this point - she knows it's been lost, and knows that Maria refuses to acknowledge it, and it pisses her off in the same way that Maria's whining about the rose pissed her off. Consequently, she rants to Maria about how Sakutarou is gone for good, she won't find him again, and she needs to act more like a grown-up and stop fantasizing about useless dolls or something like that. That rant forces Maria to come to grips to reality, and hence Sakutarou is "killed" from her mind. But by being forced to accept reality, she gets angry, and thus her "magic" (which from my perspective is a little girl's make-believe junk) turns darker as her mind turns darker from losing Sakutarou.

I think Maria lost the doll on the boat to Rokkenjima, and it was picked by the fisherman after a while, who didn't know whose it was - it's possible that it could have been lost for a while until he noticed. He decided to keep it, and that's what Ange saw. In seeing Sakutarou, Ange realized that Maria's memories of Sakutarou's death are fake, as he's sitting right there, and realizes what actually happened.

So what does this mean for Rokkenjima? Not much, but I think it tells a bit more about Maria's personality and the darkness in her. I'm all but certain Maria is at minimum an accomplice in the murders, and I won't rule that she didn't kill anyone in any of the four episodes with that.

So, thoughts on this theory?

I'm not really sure about that one. Yes, it seems quite impossible for her to act like that in front of a social worker - however, she also hit Maria and lost it in front of the cousins. Also, Maria always went shopping with Sakutaro, right? If I recall correctly, the social worker scene happened after she went to the Police Station. Didn't she have Sakutaro with her during that time? If she lost it in the boat to Rokkenjima, during the scene with the social worker she'd still have the doll.

I could see Rosa losing it and hitting Maria in front of a social worker because of that. What I can't see is Rosa attacking the social worker herself hard enough to throw her into a wall and then have no repercussions from that.
As for Maria's shopping: it's possible that Maria endlessly prattled about her friend "Sakutarou" who she describes as a doll to the storekeeper, who simply decided to play along and not hurt a little girl's feelings - it's clear he's a old, nice guy after all, so it's hardly unreasonable.
I argue that Maria did not have Sakutarou at the time the social worker appeared, and lost Sakutarou during an earlier boat ride to Rokkenjima - it's not the first time she's been there before, after all. It's probably around the time the social worker appears that Rosa "killed" Sakutarou in the way I described above.

[Nyura Kousen]

Originally Posted by ghost_zero5

That's true but there are also the "Jessica is the murderer" theories but Jessica knowing about those symbols? Somehow, I can't believe this. However, she could have had e.g. Maria as accomplice that should be enough to get the information she needs.

I can't believe Jessica = culprit theories either. I mentioned it earlier, her reactions make it unbelieveable. Jan-Poo also said that she'd have to be an awesome actress. It's true, Maria could have helped her - but still... unless she has split personalities or something like that...

Originally Posted by Leinne

In Gohad's notes, he writes that Kanon told him that someone had messed up the tools of the shed and had painted a magic circle while he had the key, that's too similar to the first twilight of ep1 and can be related to the belief of someone making it look as Beatrice exists

Kanon told him he didn't believe in Beatrice until that happened. Gohda didn't believe, either. So, as you said, the magic circles were made in order to make them believe. However, it could also be a prank some servants (or even Kinzo) pulled off.

EDIT: Sakutaro theory.
I'm not really sure about that one. Yes, it seems quite impossible for her to act like that in front of a social worker - however, she also hit Maria and lost it in front of the cousins. Also, Maria always went shopping with Sakutaro, right? If I recall correctly, the social worker scene happened after she went to the Police Station. Didn't she have Sakutaro with her during that time? If she lost it in the boat to Rokkenjima, during the scene with the social worker she'd still have the doll.

[Marion]

She had Sakutaro with her in the police station. The social worker scene is the same time when Rosa ripped up the doll too, so obviously she had the doll.

[ghost_zero5]

The social worker scene was kinda "strange".
I mean that the social worker didn't say anything at that time is possible but I am pretty sure that they would have done something afterwards and Maria probably wouldn't be under Rosa's care anymore.

[maximilianjenus]

Well, jessica is already a rgeat singer, so maybe she is a well rounded talent compelte with acting askills.

Originally Posted by ClockWorkAngel

I'm sorry to burst you bubble but,

There are no more than 17 people on the island.

Unless someone amongst the 17 is dead, there can be no 18th person. However it is possible if BATTLER is working against them outside of the island.

However, there can be a real ushiromiya battler amongst the 17 that is kanon whose real name we don't know.

@kaiba: I like your theory on sakutaro.

this is closely related to batler's demise in the 4th Episode; as far as beatrice identity goes, Bernkastel already said that beatrice "is the rules of this world" so, she can kill battler because the rules of rokenjima say that everybody dies.


A little bit on witch classes and the relationship between lambda and beatrice; beatrice as an endless witch is still one level below lambda, who is a traveler, thus meaning that beatrice can't travel through kakeras, she can't either "reset time" that is why it is mentioned in Episode 3's tea party that lambda is lending her powers (kakera travel) to beatrice.


on Bernkastel being evil, for me she is more like an anti-hero, she is doing good stuff but resort to morally gray means, such as using ange as a bait to give battler hte necessary determination to beat beatrice, because batler was having a lot of fun playing the game and was forgetting about his actual goal.

About the kakera system, imho the alternate universes need to be created someway, that is why traveler witches are so powerful, because she can misdirect kakeras, hence why bernkastel created an emo ange, which would be the most suitable to bring battler's determination back, and that also explains some weird things on higurashi; and more importantly creates "kakera 3" ange, and bernkastel being a witch, she is able to grab the dead ange, as witches can only grab people who die ( see hanyu, beatrice) to bring them to other kakera or eventhe meta world.

sorry about the scattered toughts, I normally am offline during the weekends.

[Kaiba]

Originally Posted by Marion

She had Sakutaro with her in the police station. The social worker scene is the same time when Rosa ripped up the doll too, so obviously she had the doll.

Don't remember, but do the police actually state she had a doll, or did Maria just talk about Sakutarou and describe him to them? And like I said, I don't think Rosa ripped up the doll, as it was already lost - rather she told Maria to get over her imaginary friend and accept that she had lost the doll for good, and so killed Sakutarou in a sense.

[ghost_zero5]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

I think you misinterpreted those events, anyway as Antera Caramichael pointed out, it is confirmed that Lambda initiated this game.

Forgot that sentence.
Ah OK. It really seems that I misinterpreted it then. I will probably go through this part once more then

[Marion]

Originally Posted by Kaiba

Don't remember, but do the police actually state she had a doll, or did Maria just talk about Sakutarou and describe him to them? And like I said, I don't think Rosa ripped up the doll, as it was already lost - rather she told Maria to get over her imaginary friend and accept that she had lost the doll for good, and so killed Sakutarou in a sense.

She had the actual doll in the holding cell they were keeping her in. She was even 'talking' to Sakutaro and hugging him.

[Jan-Poo]

@Kaiba's sakutaro theory

Your theory is identical to one that was posted a while ago. If I'm not mistaken it was proposed by K//eternal.

You do have a point that the whole scene with the social worker was completely unrealistic. However what I find difficult to accept is that Kawabata found the stuffed lion (supposedly after a family meeting) and he never thought that it was probably lost by one of the Ushiromiya's children.

There is also the fact that Beatrice couldn't repeat in red that sakutaro was the only one in the world. Well it's not really a fact, but the sentece she couldn't repeat was almost certainly 99,999999% the same sentence she said in white a little while before. So I'm more bent into believing that Rosa made another one.

Anyway if the scene of Rosa "killing" sakutaro was fake, then it was also fake that she "killed" siesta 556. That could be an interesting development in Ep5

[unconfirmed]

Crazy theory time.

ΛΔ and Bernkastel aren't really powerful traveler witches.
The best way to describe the former is with the phrase "nothing is impossible"
and the latter with "everything is possible".

In fact, that makes Bernkastel and ΛΔ logically equivalent. Of course, the only difference is what you would call the fulfillment of those concepts.

In one case, upon reaching one's goal through sheer determination and willpower, much like Takano's goal of proving her grandfather's theories, one would call the end result a "certainty".

On the other hand, until that end result is reached, one cannot deny the possibility of X happening such that the result is changed, no matter how unlikely that "X" is. Upon reaching that unlikely event due to X, much like Rika being able to survive with her friends when all the odds are against them, one could call the end result a "miracle".

This is why Bern is > ΛΔ, since a future event may never be "certain" until it becomes a event in the present. ΛΔ only manifests herself as the determination required to reached that desired event. If it cannot be reached, that would simply mean the person in question does not have enough determination to insure certainty, not because ΛΔ didn't have the "power" to grant that certainty.

If ΛΔ is a representation of your pesky parents' ideal of "work hard now and relax later", or "doing your h/w so you can have a good future", or "hurry up and wash the dishes since they're never going to wash themselves", then Bern is the embodiment of your ideals, the lazy kid who thinks back "maybe I can relax now and relax later as well", or "maybe I'll have a good future without the h/w", or "perhaps the dishes really will wash themselves".

At their greatest, either one can accomplish "magic". ΛΔ can indeed make a girl into a witch, and Bern can indeed grant Ange a miracle. However, the important thing to remember is, the wielder of that "magic" is not them, but you. Only you can change your fate, or sit around and let it change itself. In this way, Bern and ΛΔ are very similar to Beatrice's existence (read: "Beato=love" theory). All the witches are just a physical manifestation of the innate power of humans to influence the world around them.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by unconfirmed

All the witches are just a physical manifestation of the innate power of humans to influence the world around them.

My ideas of what Bern/Lamda/Beato represent are slightly different but I agree on the manifestation point.

Other witches also appear in the meta world and probably represent concepts such as the ones you described.

However, Battler appears in the meta world as well so... WHO IS BATTLER?

[rogerpepitone]

Maria had the three magic circles that were used in her notebook.
Therefore, either:
- The killer had some involvement with teaching Maria about the circles, and taught them because they were to be used in the murders.
- The killer looked through her notebooks and used the circles found there.

I've been wondering about an overall theory of the murders:

Spoiler:

1) Maria is obviously important to the killer's plan. She survived to the last twilight in episodes 1, 2, and 4.
2) The epitaph is a riddle (Eva and Rosa solved it), not a ritual.
3) The killer wants to make it look like he's following the epitaph as a ritual, but isn't. (The already-dead Kinzo was a "sacrifice" in episodes 1 and 3.)
4) In 24 hours, (seemingly) everyone on the island will be dead. Most of the evidence of a witch would be lost. (For example, how would anybody know about the chapel key business?)

Conclusion: The killer's goal is to convince Maria that she is Beatrice, and that they have reached the golden land. There is something she wants Maria to do.

Next, Rosa is much younger than her siblings. I've wondered whether she was actually Eva's daughter. This would have the effect of putting Rosa and Maria after Eva and before George in the line of succession. That's a nice button, and I've got a vest that would look real good on it.

Hypothesis: Suppose the mastermind's goal was to get Maria to inherit the fortune, and somehow gain custody or guardianship.

- The mastermind must not be someone who could legitimately inherit. Otherwise, that person could try to inherit directly instead of trying to go through Maria.
-- Natsuhi is out; she could inherit through Krauss. Similarly with the other Ushiromiyas and in-laws.
- The mastermind must be someone who could know the truth about Rosa's parentage.
- Krauss, Jessica, Eva, and Rosa must die so that Maria will inherit.
- George and Rudolf, as of-age blood relatives to Maria, and Natsuhi, Hideyoshi, and Kyrie, must die as more likely guardians for Maria.
- Battler and Ange do not have to die, and they are underage and not potential guardians.
- Shannon is out as a suspect. She could more easily inherit through George, is unlikely to know of the truth of Rosa's birth, and is underage.
- Similarly, Kanon is out.
- Gohda is out as unlikely to know the truth about Rosa.
- As a long time servant, Genji has a decent chance to know (or suspect) the truth about Rosa; Eva may have confided in him, or he may have noticed Eva's behavior at the time.
- Mackerel-tan is more likely than Genji; she's a more likely confidant than Genji, and is a decent candidate for guardian (being married(?) and holding a grandparent-like relation with the cousins).
- Nanjo is in a very good position to know of (or even prove) Rosa's parentage; he probably was Eva's doctor at the time. He's also a decent candidate for guardian.

Of course, red text denies that any of those three was a murderer, at least in episode 1.

And I really don't believe that the overall motive concerned the inheritance, anyway.

@Kaisos Erranon:
As far as locked rooms / impossible crimes goes, Umineko isn't that much. Try reading John Dickson Carr's classic The Three Coffins (aka The Hollow Man).

[Jan-Poo]

Originally Posted by Ssol

My ideas of what Bern/Lamda/Beato represent are slightly different but I agree on the manifestation point.

Other witches also appear in the meta world and probably represent concepts such as the ones you described.

However, Battler appears in the meta world as well so... WHO IS BATTLER?

If you think the purgatorio shown in Ep1 Tea Party is the meta world, then Jessica, George, Maria, Shannon an Kanon also appear in the metaworld.

I don't think the metaworld is limited to witches. I think every person could have a metaphysical conunterpart in the metaworld as long as their presence there can represent something. Like for example the presence of Ange represented the Ange of 1998 trying to solve the mystery from the future.

[~Pyro~]

I think that there is no way that a human did all of the murders... Only when Battler proves that Beatrice doesn't exist, is when the crimes become possible for humans... Or maybe we all have to think like Phoenix Wright in order to solve it all...

Originally Posted by Ssol

However, Battler appears in the meta world as well so... WHO IS BATTLER?

Maybe Battler is Rudolf's Furniture... I always have the idea in my head that he is Furniture... If he was Rudolf's, it would explain the plan with the inheritance and maybe Battler's "sin"

[unconfirmed]

Originally Posted by Ssol

My ideas of what Bern/Lamda/Beato represent are slightly different but I agree on the manifestation point.

Other witches also appear in the meta world and probably represent concepts such as the ones you described.

However, Battler appears in the meta world as well so... WHO IS BATTLER?

Another crazy theory.

Meta-Battler (not to be confused with Ushiromiya Battler) is YOU!

The 17 people to arrive on the island include the real Ushiromiya Battler-who is Asumu and Rudolf's son. Kinzo is dead. Watching those 17 getting killed over and over are you, the player, and your opponent, Beatrice.

In the Tea Party of Ep 1, the Ushiromiya Battler that appears is really the voice of you, the player, and your thoughts. Did you not get agitated when Jessica and everybody else decided to believe in the witch and give up? Did you not react the EXACT same way Battler reacted when Beato appeared? From that point on, you unconsciously took on the appearance and personality of Ushiromiya Battler and became what most people call "meta-Battler".

Ryukishi further tempted you with the open-ended playing field where any sort of crazy theory could work (ie. small bombs). As such, you as the opponent of Beatrice, can now easily deny her through an improbable but undeniable method X. Thus, you've also acquired the aid of Bernkastel, who's the concept "everything is possible". In other words, she's the essence of what you call the Devil's Proof. (As a side note, Maria allies herself with Beatrice who is the concept "love" in order to perform her "magic" of creation.)

From Ep 2 on, you start seeing your in-game "avatar"-who looks like Ushiromiya Battler-talk, argue, and generally voice your thoughts to Beatrice during those in-game pauses. However, you continue to think that it is Ushiromiya Battler who is playing with Beatrice. In other words, you believe that you are Ushiromiya Battler. That is why when Ushiromiya Battler caved in at the end of Ep 2, meta-Battler/you did as well.

Ryukishi 7 kept adding fuel to the illusion with Ep 3. He created a situation that caused you to rage at Beatrice's troll and replicated that emotion with meta-Battler in game. Now you feel even closer to your in-game representation, while the Ushiromiya Battler you and Beatrice watch from above seems almost like another person. This also explains why the knowledge meta-Battler/you gain do not transfer over to Ushiromiya Battler in the gameboards.

Furthermore, in Ep 4, Beatrice reveals to you that you are, in fact, NOT Ushiromiya Battler. Yet, to you, who has been tricked into believing yourself to be Ushiromiya Battler for 3 arcs found this is highly shocking.

[Tyabann]

Originally Posted by unconfirmed

*snip*

While I would hail this as the best tribute to postmodernism of all time, I think a lot of people would be very angry.

[luckyssol]

Originally Posted by Jan-Poo

If you think the purgatorio shown in Ep1 Tea Party is the meta world, then Jessica, George, Maria, Shannon an Kanon also appear in the metaworld.

I don't think the metaworld is limited to witches. I think every person could have a metaphysical conunterpart in the metaworld as long as their presence there can represent something. Like for example the presence of Ange represented the Ange of 1998 trying to solve the mystery from the future.

-I don't count the first tea party as the meta world of witches. I think it is just what it says it is Purgatorio (whatever that is)

-My point what actually to question what Battler represents. If Beato is love then Battler represents a something that wants to prove love doesn't exist?

Originally Posted by ~Pyro~

I think that there is no way that a human did all of the murders... Only when Battler proves that Beatrice doesn't exist, is when the crimes become possible for humans... Or maybe we all have to think like Phoenix Wright in order to solve it all...

Maybe Battler is Rudolf's Furniture... I always have the idea in my head that he is Furniture... If he was Rudolf's, it would explain the plan with the inheritance and maybe Battler's "sin"

Beatrice said that the sin has nothing to do with Battler's immediate family. But of course she didn't use red.

From the limited reds we have regarding the sin all we really know is that SOME Battler committed a sin 6 years ago that lead to many people's deaths.

Originally Posted by unconfirmed

Another crazy theory.

Meta-Battler (not to be confused with Ushiromiya Battler) is YOU!

The 17 people to arrive on the island include the real Ushiromiya Battler-who is Asumu and Rudolf's son. Kinzo is dead. Watching those 17 getting killed over and over are you, the player, and your opponent, Beatrice.

In the Tea Party of Ep 1, the Ushiromiya Battler that appears is really the voice of you, the player, and your thoughts. Did you not get agitated when Jessica and everybody else decided to believe in the witch and give up? Did you not react the EXACT same way Battler reacted when Beato appeared? From that point on, you unconsciously took on the appearance and personality of Ushiromiya Battler and became what most people call "meta-Battler".

Ryukishi further tempted you with the open-ended playing field where any sort of crazy theory could work (ie. small bombs). As such, you as the opponent of Beatrice, can now easily deny her through an improbable but undeniable method X. Thus, you've also acquired the aid of Bernkastel, who's the concept "everything is possible". In other words, she's the essence of what you call the Devil's Proof. (As a side note, Maria allies herself with Beatrice who is the concept "love" in order to perform her "magic" of creation.)

From Ep 2 on, you start seeing your in-game "avatar"-who looks like Ushiromiya Battler-talk, argue, and generally voice your thoughts to Beatrice during those in-game pauses. However, you continue to think that it is Ushiromiya Battler who is playing with Beatrice. In other words, you believe that you are Ushiromiya Battler. That is why when Ushiromiya Battler caved in at the end of Ep 2, meta-Battler/you did as well.

Ryukishi 7 kept adding fuel to the illusion with Ep 3. He created a situation that caused you to rage at Beatrice's troll and replicated that emotion with meta-Battler in game. Now you feel even closer to your in-game representation, while the Ushiromiya Battler you and Beatrice watch from above seems almost like another person. This also explains why the knowledge meta-Battler/you gain do not transfer over to Ushiromiya Battler in the gameboards.

Furthermore, in Ep 4, Beatrice reveals to you that you are, in fact, NOT Ushiromiya Battler. Yet, to you, who has been tricked into believing yourself to be Ushiromiya Battler for 3 arcs found this is highly shocking.

That's a really interesting theory and fits with who Bern and Lamda are talking to at the end of eps 1/2.

However, Ryukishi seems to have abandoned that as we watch episodes 3 and 4 entirely in the third person perspective.

edit: What I mean is that I think Ryukishi started going one way and went another regarding breaking the fourth wall.

[June 1983]

Speaking of the sin, by the way -- this may be kind of obvious, but:

Do you know what is the sin?
It isn't because you ate the forbidden fruit.

Do you know what is the sin?
It isn't because you listened to the serpent.

You still don't know what is the sin?
Then, that itself is your sin.

-Frederica Bernkastel

This is awfully similar to what Beato says to Battler when he can't tell her what his sin is.