Brexit Vote

[SeijiSensei]

After the no-no-deal bill receives the Royal Assent on Monday or Tuesday, it will be interesting to see what BoJo does. If he does not request another delay after October 19th, he will be in violation of the law and subject to arrest.

I was surprised to see few efforts to delay the bill in the Lords. There was talk of filibustering the bill on Wednesday and Thursday, but it didn't seem to come to pass.

To support Enzo's view on Corbyn, Johnson's approval rating since becoming PM has run around 35-40%. Corbyn's figures are in the high teens. His disapproval score is in the sixties.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Leader...neral_election

[Anh_Minh]

So what happens if Corbyn has an accident between now and the next elections and has to withdraw from politics?

[Guardian Enzo]

Massive celebrations by every remainer?

Presumably Watson takes over on a temporary basis, and a new selection chooses a Corbyn loyalist. Don’t forget that just as the man calling the shots for the Tories is not the leader but Cummings, the man running the show at Labour is Seumas Milne, Corbyn’s virulently Euroskeptic and anti-Semitic Svengali. He’ll decide on a suitably pro-Brexit successor and instruct the loyalists on how to vote.

[James Rye]

Well this week parliament should go into their 5 week long pause given the court hasn't said no yet. Monday it's all about whenever Corbyn can resist the temptation of helping BoJo along with a GE or not. He probably can, but you never know.

[Toukairin]

After 10 years as the speaker at the House of Commons, John Bercow will step down.

Commons Speaker John Bercow to stand down (BBC)

For me, I have to say that I'm sad because he has been by far the best figure to maintain parliamentary order, especially in that very toxic context of Brexit in recent years. I will definitely miss him.

[SeijiSensei]

YouTube

https://youtu.be/5z4k8tE8D0I

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[James Rye]

Well, that's it. Parliament is prorogued till October 14th. Loved Bercow's "I don't give a flying Flamingo" to a heckling Tory MP. Same with the Shame on you shouts and singing from the Opposition. But I guess that's it for the funny times in parliament for the next couple weeks.

[OH&S]

Images

Perfect Brexit Metaphor

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[James Rye]

Wow, 5 pages of the Yellowhammer file, sooooo impressive. xDDD
And heck, even those 5 pages out of who know how many 100s of pages are already bad enough even with Point 15 being redacted.^^

[James Rye]

Supreme court rules Boris Johnson's prorogation was 'unlawful'

Well damn, Boris is the biggest Loser PM the UK has ever seen. Lost ever vote in the Commons so far AND lost to the Supreme Court as well who now says that his prorogation was 'unlawful, void and of no effect'. XD
I think he gonna prorogate again though. Not like that is forbidden. Or he just gonna wait the current prorogation out. Not sure if he gonna do that though.

[Kakurin]

Originally Posted by James Rye

I think he gonna prorogate again though. Not like that is forbidden. Or he just gonna wait the current prorogation out. Not sure if he gonna do that though.

I don't think you are aware of how badly Boris Johnson has lost today. The court has unanimously with all 11 judges quashed his prorogation, meaning they have declared it null and void. Parliament as of now is not prorogued.

[Guardian Enzo]

And he's 15 points ahead of Labour in the polls. This sucks for him, but is there really any consequence? He won't resign, and Corbyn won't table a no-confidence motion because he knows parliament would never vote to have him lead a caretaker government. BoJo will take an election any time because he knows he'd win, the opposition won't give him one till after the 31st of October at least, and it's really status quo.

In the online bubble we live in, it can be easy to believe all sane people think a certain way. But to the hard-Brexit crowd this decision will just make Boris that much more of a hero. "People vs. Parliament" and all that bullshit.

[Arabesque]

Originally Posted by James Rye

Well damn, Boris is the biggest Loser PM the UK has ever seen.

Happy ending for Theresa May??????

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

In the online bubble we live in, it can be easy to believe all sane people think a certain way. But to the hard-Brexit crowd this decision will just make Boris that much more of a hero. "People vs. Parliament" and all that bullshit.

Sadly, that is going to be the case it seems. The narrative among pro-Brexit circles and No Deal advocates will be the whole "People vs. Parliament" thing (which, I must say, is the stupidest evolution this particular fiasco has taken for us to reach such a talking point), when in reality is the country is still guided and bound by laws. If people wanted to return to the divine right of kings, they should be petitioning to the Queen to assume direct power and take power from Parliament, instead of asking the elected ministers to ignore those laws for no reason.

I don't see this changing the conclusion of where we will be on Halloween (I personally think it's too late to really change things when the UK had gone full on clown car mode now) but it does warm my heart to see BoJo eat shit in any case.

As for any election ... I just don't see how it changes things much. Yeah, Boris might win it (as indicated by the polls) but I don't think he'll win a majority, leading us back to a hung Parliament and where we were when this whole thing started with May and her deal with the DUP. The country is divided on the question of Brexit, and misinformation (in particular about how leaving is good) is widespread, the populace is far too entrenched in where they stand, facts be damned.

All Boris needs to do in order to get No Deal is to run out the clock for the next month, and then not ask the EU for an extension. The EU will, obviously, be waiting and seeing what happens, but I think most can see the writing on the wall and that this is really it.

[Guardian Enzo]

There is speculation he could be jailed for contempt if he refuses to carry out the Benn bill. I’m sure Cummings is telling him that’ll never happen but Cummings also promised him the courts wouldn’t meddle in his prorogation gambit.

[Arabesque]

I'm sure Cummings is whispering all sorts of sweet nothing into BoJo's ears, but that doesn't matter when the court tells him that he's not above the law.

Although, BoJo ending up in jail because of this might be a good thing, afterall.

The issue is that, of course, it doesn't solve the problem of what to do going forward. Just that Boris' gambit on this path is closed off. A good thing, but not a solution to this fiasco.

[SeijiSensei]

Johnson could try to prorogue Parliament again, but that seems unlikely to me. First, the Queen's advisors will likely discourage her from agreeing to another prorogation after the Supreme Court's decision today. Also he'd have to come up with better grounds than he did the first time around, and it's hard to see what they might be.

I don't much chance that another election will produce a workable majority. Even with the DUP, the Tories are unlikely to reach 325. Any seats the Brexit party wins will likely come from the Conservatives. There may be a few Labour seats in the north that might vote Brexit, but I don't think there would be very many. The LibDems won't go into coalition with the Tories this time around; it would be even more disastrous for them than the last time. The SNP aren't an option as well.

The problem for the Remain side is Labour. It's hard to see a Labour/LibDem/SNP/Green coalition with Jeremy Corbyn as its head. Labour's own divides over Brexit became much clearer during the party conference: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-brexit-update Plus you've now got a couple of "independent" groups including those Tories from whom the whip was withdrawn a few weeks ago with the smaller group of MPs who left earlier this year.

[Guardian Enzo]

Ignore those polls at your peril. Labour is in free fall - Corbyn is the most toxic major party leader in polling history, by far. If the Brexit party doesn’t formally lay down for the Tories they’ll be crushed and likely win no seats. The LDs May poach some Tory seats in remain constituencies, but the Tories will wipe out Labour in leave areas. I fully expect Johnson to win an outright majority, if not a large one.

[James Rye]

Man, that offer... *shakes head* It is basically asking Ireland to surrender territory and the EU to put their whole political agenda to the whims of the DUP. No wonder the DUP agreed to support that plan of Boris. It makes them incredible powerful. No way Ireland can agree to several Borders within their own country nor can the EU agree to handing such a Veto power to a single small party like the DUP. Doesn't feel like a real offer, but then again, most likely it was never meant to be a serious one.
I honestly just want UK to be gone now. They're poisonous. You just need to listen to their speeches or read their twitters to see how far they are gone into the rabbit hole. They won't get out of that anytime soon, no matter with deal or with no deal.

[SeijiSensei]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-times-reports

The last time the Queen was forced to dismiss a Prime MInister was 1834.

If BoJo isn't willing to leave office voluntarily, what does that say about his friend across the pond?

At least Trump received over 60 million votes. Johnson is PM because of the votes of about 100,000 Tories.

[MeoTwister5]

Off with his head?