Newsflash: Fighting in South Ossetia/Georgia

[Orchunter226]

Originally Posted by Geta Boshi

Lets take a hypothetically scenario where Canada goes communist stock piles itself with Nukes and allies with Russia. So going by your scenario if USA has no malicious plans they shouldnt be bothered by it let alone be concerned . Will this bode well with US Establishment ?. There will be no action from US Government and it will just sit down and go hey we have no malicious plans so its okay .

I didn't know that Georgia was "stock pile[d] with nukes." Last time I check it was a very small country on the outskirts of Russia.

I guess the equivalent of that would be, say, Cuba being antagonistic towards the U.S. and allying with Russia (not so hypothetical). But even then, that's not the same. Because really, there is no equivelant.

Also, I think Russia did have the right to stop Georgia from doing what it was doing to South Ossetia. Georgia definitely needed to be stopped.

But, I think Russia went a little overboard by invading it, and engaging in near all out war. Russia used something horrible like murdering innocents as an excuse to enforce its own self-interests. That sounds morally correct, huh (the same thing the rest of the world shitstormed at America for in Iraq)?

[Lathdrinor]

Well, the US helped rebuild Iraq after the invasion. I don't see Russia doing that, not at all.

[WanderingKnight]

China has alot of cheap labor and materials that we benefit from, so they are exempt.

"Exempt". Hahahahahaha.

You're just too funny to be a troll. Every time you post I'm even more convinced you're not, that you really believe what you post. Damn.

[Zoned87]

Originally Posted by WanderingKnight

"Exempt". Hahahahahaha.

You're just too funny to be a troll. Every time you post I'm even more convinced you're not, that you really believe what you post. Damn.

I am not a troll I support my claims and my beliefs.

China is economically linked to the U.S.... so much so that many minor issues are ignored in favor of profit.

[Kamui4356]

Originally Posted by Zoned87

It doesn't scare me, just moving would be a pain in the ass if I was drafted. But then again its random selection so I got a 50/50.

In the event of war with Russia, a draft would be the last thing you'd have to worry about. First check to see if there are any large military or industrial targets nearby.

Anyway, the idea that Russia is being threatened by 10 anti missile missiles being based in Poland is idiotic at best. Even if they were 100% accurate, that just means Russia needs to launch 10 extra missiles to hit their intended targets. They have more than enough to cover that. Worst case, all 10 missiles intercepted were going after the same target, they wasted a few doubling up on other targets, and need to launch a second strike to get that one they missed. Once again they have more than enough to cover it.

If they think the missiles are offensive, we could get SLBMs as close or closer and launch from an unexpected location. Why deploy offensive missiles that would be a more inviting target? Also the whole thing that there's only 10 of them still applies.

Of course the idea of putting anti missile missiles in Poland in the first place it pretty dumb too. I mean who's really going to attack? Iran? That'll just result in Iran being covered in radioactive glass. Really it's more a symbol than anything practical.

[risingstar3110]

Originally Posted by Lathdrinor

Well, the US helped rebuild Iraq after the invasion. I don't see Russia doing that, not at all.

I may not know as well as you. But did America rebuild Iraq after the Gulf War back in 90s? Because it is quite similar to the situation now (as Iraq back then also didn't recognise the independence of Kuwait ), except in the name of UN back then.

When comparing to the current situation in Iraq, I believe if Russian troops could get themselves to Georgia capital and install a new government in their interest, they won't mind to give out some rebuilding supports (like what they will do to SO). That didn't even take into accounts that the Russia believe Georgia took so little damages that it won't need to rebuild anything

@Kamui: agree with you there. The Anti-missile is more like a game to force the opponent( Russia Vs West) to step back. If Russia let America push easily, they may find an American military base next to them next time, so they will resist as much as possible whether it is necessary or not.
Adults are much more stubborn than kids when come to politics, i know

USA and NATO are playing a dangerous game (they always does actually), try to isolate Russia completely while mention nothing about Georgia. If Russia find themselves a need to construct an organisation to support their way back to world superpower, they will only need China or whoever being targeted by US or NATO (or both) in any fields to feel the same thing. It is happening now but really slow through

[tenken627]

Well, the conflict has been escalated much much more.

Russia has now officially recognized the Georgian areas of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as fully independent.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn...2502171&s_pos=

"Russia's parliament on Monday unanimously urged Medvedev to recognize the independence of the two breakaway regions. Over the objections of the United States and Georgia's other Western allies, both Medvedev and Prime Minister Vladimir Putin declared that Moscow was ready to suffer a breakdown in relations with NATO and setbacks in its efforts to join the World Trade Organization."

"The defiant statements and the resolution adopted by both houses of parliament, which is under the Kremlin's firm control, appeared coordinated to signal that Russia will not give in to demands that it withdraw all of its troops from Georgian territory and is prepared to deepen the international crisis if the United States and Europe attempt to retaliate."

But in remarks broadcast on national television, Medvedev has described Russia's partnership with NATO as an "illusion" and said the country could survive without it. "It is NATO, not Russia, that is primarily interested in NATO-Russia cooperation," he said. "If they choose to break off this relationship, even the whole of it, nothing terrible will happen."

Putin was quoted by the news agency RIA Novosti as saying that Russia should back off some of the commitments it has made during negotiations to enter the World Trade Organization. "We don't feel or see any advantages from membership, if they exist at all," Putin said.

[Xellos-_^]

if the US and its allies can back Kosovos independence then Russia can back S.Ossetia's independence.

The Russian's can probably use the US exact words to declare thier support.

[tenken627]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

if the US and its allies can back Kosovos independence then Russia can back S.Ossetia's independence.

The Russian's can probably use the US exact words to declare thier support.

Well, a Russian scholar in the article also has stated that this move might embolden Russia into doing similar action to other former Soviet territories with large Russian populations later on, such as the Crimean region in Ukraine. The Ukraine is much more powerful than Georgia, but who knows what may happen under Putin's regime. We'll just have to wait and see.

Either way, this is taking a step back towards the Cold War Era, with other Western nations (UK, France, Germany, Italy) also denouncing the move and Russia no longer caring about relations with NATO, wishing to join the WTO, or basically caring what others think.

[Vexx]

Fascinating.... a friend of mine who is an military analyst keeps remarking how the post-Soviet era keeps playing out like some kind of shadow version of the early 20th Century (balkanization, country alignments, treaties, etc).

Whatever... while the NATO alliance and Russia keep waving their testicles at each other... China will probably slip by and own the world economically (as they already pretty much own the US's debt-bonds and have eliminated much of our local production capability with the help of our short-term greed multi-nationals).

[TinyRedLeaf]

Originally Posted by Xellos-_^

if the US and its allies can back Kosovos independence then Russia can back S.Ossetia's independence.

Except that two wrongs don't make a right.

It does mean that the US and Nato can't do or say much, because they have zero credibility over the issue. Even so, it doesn't give Russia the right to unilaterally "recognise" South Ossetia and Abkhazia's independence, which it has now done.

Too bad for Georgia, and for international law. But the latter has been in tatters since Iraq, so what we can do other than shrug and sigh?

Originally Posted by Vexx

Fascinating.... a friend of mine who is an military analyst keeps remarking how the post-Soviet era keeps playing out like some kind of shadow version of the early 20th Century (balkanization, country alignments, treaties, etc).

It goes back even further, to The Great Game of the 18th and 19th centuries. That involved slightly different players in slightly different regions, but the same overall objective from Russia's perspective.

[Vexx]

Random..... gee, I wonder what Plan B is for servicing the International Space Station since the US is putting the Shuttles out to pasture (long overdue) but now we may not have the Soyuz ships as an option.... because the Bush Admin put off actually starting a Shuttle replacement project until recently.

Another expensive asset in trouble because someone didn't do preventative work (along with most of the other major assets/infrastructure in the US).

[tenken627]

Actually the largest difference between this and Kosovo's independence is the intent to annex, which we may find out later.

As far as I know, no NATO nation has annexed Kosovo as their own yet.

So, if Russia does indeed absorb South Ossetia and Abkhazia into their own borders (willingly or not) after proclaiming their independence, that is indeed a huge difference in motive.

Edit: Nevermind, it seems that they do not wish to annex these two areas as of now. They will open formal diplomatic ties and "cooperation treaties" or alliances. South Ossetia wishes to request a permanent Russian military base placed within their borders.

[shelter]

Originally Posted by tenken627

They will open formal diplomatic ties and "cooperation treaties" or alliances. South Ossetia wishes to request a permanent Russian military base placed within their borders.

The fact that Russia is formally recognizing 2 separatist regions seems like a very open challenge to the West (U.S & its European allies). Whether or not its payback over Kosovo or not, I think the Russians are trying to show they also have the power to influence states which flock to them for help.

At first I thought this was a classic case of a big bully screwing around with a smaller one. But now I'm not so sure. Considering that Georgia started off this mess with their invasion of South Ossetia, and that Russia's new declarations will probably alter the geography of that region, the only thing now is to wait for what the U.S & everyone else has to say - or do.

[risingstar3110]

It's silly enough for Russia to go around and warn neighbor countries to "think again before acting like Georgia", but why NATO and US also have to escalate the problem by using battleships for aids in Black Sea.

Also, why don't they send some aid to SO when the people there obviously received much more physical damages during the short conflicts? Is it just to prove that Russia lied about SO's condition and Georgia also surfer heavy damages from Russia bombing alone ( because i don't think there are any "major" conflicts within Georgia "territories")?

If a portion of these aids would come to SO, i don't think the Russians will complaint that much about the nature of those.

PS: the probability of Russian Vs Western Europe conflicts have just jumped up form 1% to 5% in my dictionary

[solomon]

I think it only logical for Russia to be wierded out by the expansion of NATO around the Black Sea (NATO does serve purpose today but how far does it need to expand?)

However, I never understood why whoever initiated the move in Russia (I don't attribute it just to Putin) would pound the very region that THEY SAY they are "defending".

[Vexx]

NATO continues to be an organization in search of a mission. Frankly, it should have been radically scaled back after the Soviet Union disbanded.

[yezhanquan]

Originally Posted by Vexx

NATO continues to be an organization in search of a mission. Frankly, it should have been radically scaled back after the Soviet Union disbanded.

I would say that its "original" mission (to contain the Soviet Union) has ended, hence its search for a "new" mission.

[tranquill]

Russia-Georgia conflict created a big headache for Israel which armed and trained Georgians for years - and now suddenly Russians threaten retaliation by supplying S-300 SAM batteries to Syria. Here is what a prominent Israeli analyst says: http://samsonblinded.org/blog/on-rus...and-israel.htm

[lightbringer]

Great article, nicely antagonizing neighboring Russia - arms sales to Chechnya? diplomatic vacuum? ABM sites in Eastern Europe? opposing every move on principle? That's really gonna help bring peace and stability to Europe.

The author also seems to neglect the fact that "sky-high" oil and gas prices are also market prices right now. And why should Russia offer subsidized oil or gas to countries that are no longer their strategic allies? It only makes sense to charge them the same rates as everyone else.

As for Georgia... this conflict was perhaps inevitable, if unfortunate. Those regions never really were part of Georgia proper, except on paper. The whole area was part of the Russian Empire, and these regions were "assigned" to the Georgian SSR when the political divisions of the Soviet Union were created. I suppose it was a move meant to keep the Georgian SSR in check by planting these hostile factions into their political landscape. When Georgia declared their independence from the Soviet Union, Abkhazia and South Ossetia followed suit, but nobody gave a shit (after all, we're talking about regions that together number less than 500,000 people, and which have zero strategic significance).

I just hope that the situation does not deteriorate further. Western powers have been fast to condemn Russia without looking at the overall picture, after giving them a carte blanche in the form of Kosovo. Merely months after unilaterally redrawing European borders, we're talking about the value of territorial integrity? I'm sure Putin and Medvedev are laughing their asses off.

Since Georgia was being armed, trained, and egged on by the States (and Israel, it seems from that article), it's not really surprising though. Monday's meeting will show whether it's all just hot air, as I think it is, or whether Europe plans some concrete steps to worsen our relationship with Russia.