Japan Earthquake and Tsunami (March 11, 2011)

[solomon]

WOW,

TBS Newsbird just totally broke down the problem.

Basically, because of the two containment units that encase the feul rods, a Chernobyl type explosion with conamination will not occur. Melting of the feul rods will supposedly cause a hydrogen explosion but the energy of that type of explosion to the one in 86 is quite big, less energy apparently and much less chance of large amounts of radiation being carried across a long distance (although they didn't say how long a distance).

[Green²]

Opinion:

Overall guess is that people are now waiting on the latest status report from the IAEA, and on whether the external AC power source can provide any improvement to the situation. First report will likely come out from TEPCO though, but the longer we hear nothing from them of good news, the more one begins to worry if there will be any. It will take a lot of time none the less.

[Guardian Enzo]

Originally Posted by solomon

WOW,

TBS Newsbird just totally broke down the problem.

Basically, because of the two containment units that encase the feul rods, a Chernobyl type explosion with conamination will not occur. Melting of the feul rods will supposedly cause a hydrogen explosion but the energy of that type of explosion to the one in 86 is quite big, less energy apparently and much less chance of large amounts of radiation being carried across a long distance (although they didn't say how long a distance).

Despite the seeming eagerness of the international media for this to escalate into a catastrophe, thus far there is ZERO EVIDENCE OF ANY KIND that radiation levels outside the 20-30 KM evacuation zones are or have at any time been high enough to cause human health effects. Radiation levels in Tokyo, at last count, were almost down to their normal levels (and below the normal levels in places like Denver and Santa Fe).

Now, none of this is to say things can't get worse. None of this is to say a worst-case scenario couldn't still happen - though for the reasons you mention above and others, even a WCS would be "less worse" than Chernobyl. The reality is that the longer this goes without a major downturn, the less likely it is that there will be one. At this stage the power cable has been connected to reactor 2 and backup generators are working at #5-6, and supplying power to #4. Those are meaningful, positive developments.

Rather than focusing on foreigners leaving being a sign of some kind of massive government conspiracy, I think the focus should be on two things: the situation on the ground, and the fate of the "Fukushima 50" - the workers who have been at their posts since the beginning and are likely to be the only people to suffer serious health effects from this crisis. Rather than obsess over unlikely scenarios (such as the ludicrous rush to buy iodine pills in the United States), take a minute to think about the sacrifice these men are making. We throw the word "heroes" around way too much, but these guys are genuine heroes.

[Jinto]

Originally Posted by solomon

WOW,

TBS Newsbird just totally broke down the problem.

Basically, because of the two containment units that encase the feul rods, a Chernobyl type explosion with conamination will not occur. Melting of the feul rods will supposedly cause a hydrogen explosion but the energy of that type of explosion to the one in 86 is quite big, less energy apparently and much less chance of large amounts of radiation being carried across a long distance (although they didn't say how long a distance).

Now honestly, judging by what you wrote, they either did not explain it correctly, or you misunderstood something (no offence meant). It cannot be a 2nd Chernobyl for a completely different reason, because of the moderator used in the reactor (its light water). The containments are not the deciding factor when the worst design basis accident is assumed. If you need a proof, simply lool at block 4, the secondary containment is bust, and the spent fuel rods are basically directly exposed to the environment. They are in a pool of water, the spent fuel pool and not fully immersed. This basically tells you the containment argument is partially moot (of course these containments make this BWR reactor design safer than the reactor design in Chernobyl but thats not so very relevant for the assumed worst design basis accident).

I want to invite you, to read my work in progress on that topic here, if you like.

[WanderingKnight]

I'm sure a lot of media coverage is hyperbole. It's been proven time and time again.

But sometimes they just overstep the boundaries WAY too much.

Take this article.

I mean, what the fuck?! How could ANYONE have any idea of what is possible and what is not? How can you ask such a simplistic question like "how would you solve Fukushima?"?! How can you even attempt to GRASP the enormity of the nationwide crisis that goes beyond the nuclear plants?

Seriously, that sort of thing gets my blood boiling. I'm skeptical of everyone and everything, including the Japanese government, but some of this coverage is outright insane at times.

And this is not The Sun or similar tabloids. This is The Guardian, a much more respected news outlet.

[Vexx]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

... Rather than obsess over unlikely scenarios (such as the ludicrous rush to buy iodine pills in the United States), take a minute to think about the sacrifice these men are making. We throw the word "heroes" around way too much, but these guys are genuine heroes.

My wife and her fellow pharmacists around the Northwest are actually calling people "misguided" to their faces and reeling off the almost guaranteed NEGATIVE side effects of taking potassium iodide (as she mutters, "it won't fix idiocy").

These employees are staying at their posts working as hard as they can... we might hang the accountants and bureaucrats later who forced shortchanges - but these guys are the Real Thing.

[solomon]

Originally Posted by Jinto

Now honestly, judging by what you wrote, they either did not explain it correctly, or you misunderstood something (no offence meant). It cannot be a 2nd Chernobyl for a completely different reason, because of the moderator used in the reactor (its light water). The containments are not the deciding factor when the worst design basis accident is assumed. If you need a proof, simply lool at block 4, the secondary containment is bust, and the spent fuel rods are basically directly exposed to the environment. They are in a pool of water, the spent fuel pool and not fully immersed. This basically tells you the containment argument is partially moot (of course these containments make this BWR reactor design safer than the reactor design in Chernobyl but thats not so very relevant for the assumed worst design basis accident).

I want to invite you, to read my work in progress on that topic here, if you like.

Thank you for your input and insight, I apologize if I mislead anyone.

[SaintessHeart]

Originally Posted by WanderingKnight

I'm sure a lot of media coverage is hyperbole. It's been proven time and time again.

But sometimes they just overstep the boundaries WAY too much.

Take this article.

I mean, what the fuck?! How could ANYONE have any idea of what is possible and what is not? How can you ask such a simplistic question like "how would you solve Fukushima?"?! How can you even attempt to GRASP the enormity of the nationwide crisis that goes beyond the nuclear plants?

Seriously, that sort of thing gets my blood boiling. I'm skeptical of everyone and everything, including the Japanese government, but some of this coverage is outright insane at times.

And this is not The Sun or similar tabloids. This is The Guardian, a much more respected news outlet.

That is a pretty interesting blog to set-up : I am always one for "cloud computing through attaching human minds instead of machines". Though there is one solution which sounds good, but I wouldn't want to do it,

For example, one email from a scientist asked why ice or snow was not being dropped on the Fukushima reactors. It would, he said, deliver more heat absorbing power than water alone and would at least drop straight down from a helicopter.

Forgotten the structure of the water molecule? Heat transfer works differently when ice is used due to hydrogen bonds that result in the weird shape of natural ice crystals, it might cause warping of the metal equipment inside if an uneven amount of ice is scattered around the reactor. Liquid water flows more evenly and thus is a better solution.

Though the article is badly named, and the commentary is unwarranted for. They should have extended the article to include the scope of beyond the reactor.

Originally Posted by Vexx

My wife and her fellow pharmacists around the Northwest are actually calling people "misguided" to their faces and reeling off the almost guaranteed NEGATIVE side effects of taking potassium iodide (as she mutters, "it won't fix idiocy").

These employees are staying at their posts working as hard as they can... we might hang the accountants and bureaucrats later who forced shortchanges - but these guys are the Real Thing.

There is a small chance that the pills will fix idiocy. Either the consumers choke on the pills, or the compound gets absorbed into the bloodstream and cause poisoning.

There! No man, no problem. Though I wonder about the effectiveness of those over-the-counter KI pills as compared to the liquid syrup droppers issued to CBRE crews and special forces.

[solomon]

Originally Posted by WanderingKnight

I'm sure a lot of media coverage is hyperbole. It's been proven time and time again.

But sometimes they just overstep the boundaries WAY too much.

Take this article.

I mean, what the fuck?! How could ANYONE have any idea of what is possible and what is not? How can you ask such a simplistic question like "how would you solve Fukushima?"?! How can you even attempt to GRASP the enormity of the nationwide crisis that goes beyond the nuclear plants?

Seriously, that sort of thing gets my blood boiling. I'm skeptical of everyone and everything, including the Japanese government, but some of this coverage is outright insane at times.

And this is not The Sun or similar tabloids. This is The Guardian, a much more respected news outlet.

I don't want to say it's outright malicious.

But large media companies are following the general trend of user generated content and high levels of input so that they can gain a following. Even if it doesn't make sense from a reporting and educational standpoint.

Otherwise you're seen as elitist and not receptive to outside opinion of the masses.

[Green²]

Was watching Anderson Cooper earlier and he said that according to TEPCO, power has never been hooked up to reactor unit 2, and something that the IAEA information that power has been connected is incorrect.

IAEA report (See Japanese Earthquake Update (17 March 17:55 UTC)):
http://www.iaea.org/newscenter/news/...iupdate01.html

Would like another source on that news though coming from TEPCO, but I couldn't find much as Japanese media might be under a "time lag".

Edit:

http://www.livedash.com/transcript/j...7_2011/571423/

00:09:19 >> Reporter: I have to take you another step back now.
00:09:21 We've heard from an official at the company in charge of this operation on the ground, which is running this plant, it's actually contradicting the iaea report that they had connected power to reactor number two, so the positive sign of power being reconnected, they are saying that has not happened.
00:09:45 That the iaea has that wrong.
00:09:45 That was a mistaken report.
00:09:46 And that they have not reconnected power.
00:09:50 Why this is important is the lack of power, the drop in power when power went out after the tsunami, that's what began this terrible chain of events.
00:10:01 They're trying to get in a new power line and connect it up to restart the cooling systems.
00:10:07 But again at this point, that has not occurred.
00:10:12 Tepco says they hope to do that today.

Edit 2

IAEA scrubs (Japanese Earthquake Update (17 March 17:55 UTC)) entry. Now updated to:

Japan Earthquake Update (17 March 2011, 16:55 UTC) - CLARIFIED
Japanese authorities have informed the IAEA that engineers have begun to lay an external grid power line cable to Unit 2. The operation was continuing as of 20:30 UTC, Tokyo Electric Power Company officials told the Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency.

They plan to reconnect power to Unit 2 once the spraying of water on the Unit 3 reactor building is completed.

The spraying of water on the Unit 3 reactor building was temporarily stopped at 11:09 UTC (20:09 local time) of 17 March.

The IAEA continues to liaise with the Japanese authorities and is monitoring the situation as it evolves.

Scrubbed entry at:
http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/...2?OpenDocument

[sneaker]

It seems that Japan has asked Germany to send robots used in German plants, according to several German sources.

[Slice of Life]

Originally Posted by Guardian Enzo

thus far there is ZERO EVIDENCE OF ANY KIND that radiation levels outside the 20-30 KM evacuation zones are or have at any time been high enough to cause human health effects.

The Japanese government withholds evidence, see my post above. Here is a blog at Nature that discusses the sketchy evidence we have and doesn't see the things as rosy:


http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegrea..._seen_far.html

[Qikz]

Nuclear Safety guys have had a press conference and NHK Translated up until a certain point.

NIS - Japanese Nuclear Saftey guys pressconference.

Number 1 Reactor - The seawater into the pressure vessal will continue.
Number 2 - The white smoke was spotted again and the was a hole in the outer building as you remember last night and when there was an explosion at number 3, the upper panel was blown out, that was the function to reduce the pressure and the white smoke is bellowing from that panel.

Reactor 3 - The water was sprayed and the evaluation of the operation is underway and the white smoke is still coming out.

Number 4 - One thing I need to report, a shroud was under construction - the stainless part? because of that the fuel rod was stored in the storage port and since the amount is large the concern is rising. There was many certainties about the existance of water inside and some say there is still water in that storage port but some say the water is very actively evacuating but according to a recent video it seems the water is still there in the fuel rod storage port.I myself have seen that video so, we assume that reactor 4 fuel rod storage pool has some water in it. However reactor 4 is also emitting white smoke and no change to reactor 5 and 6.

As you can see in this press release there is a number 29, open page 2 and open plant parameters and the mega pascal gague is what we've been using. We've also adopted now the absaloute pressure, we used to use the word gague to show above the levels of normal, however we now have used absaloute pressure including atmospheric pressure. The mega pascal MPA so the point 1 is the atmospheric pressure. We have been frequently asked about the pool for the spent fuel which is different from the core to each of these reactors and this contains the spent fuel which has already been quite cooled down and this is a common pool for the spent fuels and from 6-7AM the inspection has been conected. The fuel is not exposed and the water level has been almost recovered, it is below 10-15CM normal and spent fuels kept there are not exposed. The temperature is not measured correctly but they are trying to measure again quite soon and it's believed the water temperature is around about 40-50 degrees they have shown these figures by touching the facility.

About the power source, we didn't give a total picture before but according to our understand at Fukushima from Tohoku electric power company power has been supplied and that was mostly damaged by the quake and the lines were cut and the steel tower collapsed. We are now trying to repair them. There's another power system from Tohoku Power company from when Fukushima was built has been used so it should be reinstated as soon as possible for use. Until yesterday that system has been bought to the Fukushima plant. We are targeting today for it to be connected to the reactors, we are going to give it a try. This is for reactor 1 and 2. This is going to be connected to both reactors. We are going to do this in a hurry, because of the great damage and at number 2 reactor because of the electric system we need to supply water to the spent fuel pool, the building is not collapsing. We would like to restore the electric system as soon as possible.

EDIT: NHK World has cut off the translation of the press conference, but it's still contiuing. It's too hard for me to translate however. I do apologise.

I wish my Japanese was better so I could translate myself and be more helpful, no idea why they cut off.

[WanderingKnight]

Originally Posted by Slice of Life

The Japanese government withholds evidence, see my post above. Here is a blog at Nature that discusses the sketchy evidence we have and doesn't see the things as rosy:


http://blogs.nature.com/news/thegrea..._seen_far.html

You can't hide radiation levels. There are several live streams of independent measurements being taken at a variety of points in Japan.

I'm also skeptic of the Japanese government but radiation is something you simply CAN'T hide. It would be wiser to be suspect about other kinds of information, IMHO.

[Tri-ring]

Here is an interesting read although I guess A LOT of people already knew this.

EDITORIAL: CNN's Colorful Account of Tokyo Radiation "Danger" is Inaccurate

[Slice of Life]

Originally Posted by WanderingKnight

You can't hide radiation levels. There are several live streams of taken measurements at a variety of points in Japan.

I'm also skeptic of the Japanese government but radiation is something you simply CAN'T hide. It would be wiser to suspect another kind of information.

Careful. I said the Japanese government withholds data they have. I did not say they send black helicopters to assassinate every Japanese with a Geiger counter.

Its hard to keep things secret in general and in this case it's impossible (at least outside the evacuation zone). But most of the time it's not necessary to keep things secret in anyway. Divert attention, hinder the sceptics, trust in the laziness of the media, build up straw men, brand the opposition as traitors etc. Worked well in the gulf wars.

If you have a data source with independently verified radiation levels please share it with us.

[Ithekro]

If there is anything that is a distraction it is the nuclear "crisis". It distracts from everything else that is going on, not only in Japan, but the rest of the world as well. it is a nice paranoia topic that the media loves to milk for all it is worth.

[Tri-ring]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

If there is anything that is a distraction it is the nuclear "crisis". It distracts from everything else that is going on, not only in Japan, but the rest of the world as well. it is a nice paranoia topic that the media loves to milk for all it is worth.

That is simple the disaster in Japan is western news media's nightmare since there are no toppling buildings, no chaos, no people running in hysteria, no looting, everyone is lined up in queue quietly waiting for their turn, no people are running up to the camera screaming for help, no nothing.
If it was a disaster movie (like the western media wanted to see) it would be the most lackluster movie probably to be nominated for the Raspberry award.
The directors are probably screaming mad wanting something more gory because people loves watching spectacles like duel of the gladiators from a safe distance.

The Japanese government is doing anything and everything possible and to tell you the truth I believe they are not hiding anything since they don't have the time to come up with an alternative scenario to hide the truth and too many people independent commentators watching events live as they unfold to maintain an alternative scenario to hold.

[Slice of Life]

Originally Posted by Ithekro

If there is anything that is a distraction it is the nuclear "crisis". It distracts from everything else that is going on, not only in Japan, but the rest of the world as well. it is a nice paranoia topic that the media loves to milk for all it is worth.

It's a crisis, not a "crisis". but if you mean that living people in Libya and Bahrain deserve more of the world's attention than already dead tsunami victims and a reactor that is out of control anyway then I'd agree.

Originally Posted by Tri-ring

I believe they are not hiding anything.

Then you tell me why radiation data for three prefectures isn't posted anymore.

[WanderingKnight]

Tepco conference right now. Twitter translation here: http://twitter.com/TepcoDisaster

And SoL, here is for example a Geiger counter in Tokyo: http://www.ustream.tv/channel/geiger-counter-tokyo

I don't actually know if there is a site that tries to collect data actively, though I'm pretty sure there must be. Also, by my personal account, that number which right now is showing 13 cpm was 16 cpm two days ago.